Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations written by Juan Angel Garcia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-19 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protracted period of low (and below-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened their anchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news, this paper expands existing results in two key dimensions. First, by analyzing all available (advanced) inflation releases. Second, the reactions of expectations are investigated at daily, time-varying and intraday frequency regressions to add robustness to our conclusions. Results point to a significant impact of inflation news over recent years that had not been observed before in the euro area.

Download or read book Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area written by and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses theory and evidence on inflation expectations. While near-term measures of expected inflation in the euro area have increased, forecasters and financial markets expect inflation to decline back to the ECB's target by later this year. The paper provides some sceptical arguments in relation to the prominence given to measure of inflation expectations in monetary policy circles.

Download or read book Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area written by Tomasz Lyziak and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper analyses the anchoring of inflation expectations of professional forecasters and consumers in the euro area. We study anchoring, defined as the central bank's ability to manage expectations, by paying special attention to the impact of the ECB inflation target and ECB inflation projections on inflation expectations. Our analysis indicates that longer-term inflation forecasts have become somewhat more sensitive to shorter-term forecasts and to actual HICP inflation in the post-crisis period. We also find that the ECB inflation projections have recently become more important for short- and medium-term professional forecasts and at the same time the role of the ECB inflation target for those expectations has diminished. Overall, our analysis suggests that in recent years inflation expectations in the euro area have shown some signs of de-anchoring.

Download or read book Are Long run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States written by Meredith J. Beechey and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Role of Expectations in Euro Area Inflation Dynamics written by Maritta Paloviita and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tiivistelmä.

Download or read book Biases in Survey Inflation Expectations written by Jiaqian Chen and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book New Evidence on the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area written by Sascha Möhrle and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area based on data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The analysis shows that the overall distribution of medium- and long-term inflation forecasts has changed considerably following the global financial crisis. Moreover, micro level expectations of professional forecasters are found to be sensitive to short-term economic developments. These patterns suggest that euro area inflation expectations are significantly less anchored to the ECB's definition of price stability in recent years compared to the pre-crisis period.

Download or read book Euro Area Inflation Expectations written by Ricardo Gimeno and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study explores the recent dynamics of inflation expectations for the main euro area countries. It uses daily financial data for the main euro area countries over the past 15 years with a wide range of time horizons. The estimation of a model of the term structure of inflation expectations using these data allows the common part to be separated from the country specific part. It is found that, for the various time horizons and countries, the bulk of expected inflation is common to the whole euro area. The weight of country-specific factors is low, being most significant for the shorter term. For time horizons between five and ten years, the estimated inflation expectations showed a downward trend from 2012, which has reversed in the last two years owing to the application of a broad set of unconventional monetary policy measures in the euro area since mid-2014. Still, in the past year, medium-term inflation expectations have held below 2%, around 1.7% on average, clearly lower than in the period before the economic crisis.

Download or read book Unconventional Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area written by Sina Aßhoff and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation Surprises and Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area written by Marcello Miccoli and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies of the Euro Area written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-10-29 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines monetary and exchange rate policies of the euro area. The paper reviews the European Central Bank’s definition of price stability, and examines the factors determining “the optimal rate of inflation” in the euro area. It reviews the benefits of price stability, including the reduction in the distortions of savings and investment behavior that stem from the interaction between nominal tax systems and inflation. It then goes on to evaluate arguments for maintaining a small positive inflation rate in the context of the euro area.

Download or read book The Evolution of Inflation Expectations in Euro Area Markets written by Ricardo Gimeno and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics Why So Low for So Long written by Mr.Yasser Abdih and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-22 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low in the euro area. Based on an augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that this phenomenon—sometimes attributed to low global inflation—has been primarily caused by a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. This feature is shown to be specific to the euro area (in comparison with the United States). Monetary policy needs to stay accommodative to help guide inflation back to target.

Download or read book The Role of Expectations in the Inflation Process in the Euro Area written by Maritta Paloviita and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tiivistelmä: Odotusten rooli euroalueen inflaatioprosessissa.

Download or read book Determinants of Inflation in the Euro Area written by Ms.Florence Jaumotte and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While inflation differentials in a monetary union can be benign, reflecting a catch-up process, or an adjustment mechanism to asymmetric shocks or different business cycles, they may also indicate distortions related to inefficiencies in domestic product and labor markets that amplify or make more persistent the impact of shocks on inflation. The paper examines the determinants of inflation differentials in the euro area, with emphasis on the role of country specific labor and product market institutions. The analysis uses a traditional backward-looking Phillips curve equation and augments it to explore the role of collective bargaining systems, union density, employment protection, and product market regulation. The model is estimated over a panel dataset of 10 euro area countries over the period 1983-2007. Results show that high employment protection, intermediate coordination of collective bargaining, and high union density increase the persistence of inflation. Oil and raw materials price shocks are also more likely to be accommodated by wage increases when the degree of coordination in collective bargaining is intermediate. These results are robust to different estimation methods, model specifications, and outliers. The paper suggests that reforming labor market institutions may improve the functioning of the euro area by reducing the risk of persistent inflation differentials.

Download or read book Expectations Anchoring and Inflation Persistence written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.