Download or read book Inflation Dynamics in the West African Economic and Monetary Union written by Cecilia Melo Fernandes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-19 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes recent inflation developments in the WAEMU. As in all inflation spikes in the past two decades, food is the main driver of inflation. The contribution from energy prices is also increasing, while inflation contagion effects are still limited to a few sectors. The share of professionals that believe that inflation will continue above the target within the one-year horizon is at high levels compared to 2021. Based on projections from two models, the chapter also evaluates the appropriate monetary policy responses to the recent inflationary pressures. The results suggest that inflation is expected to converge to its target range within 24 months given the reduction of exogenous shocks weighing-in on food and energy prices, the exhaustion of base effects as well as a reduction in supply and demand imbalances. However, numerous external and internal factors affect inflation prospects and should be carefully monitored, given the pronounced uncertainty surrounding geopolitical and economic developments, and further monetary policy tighten would be necessary unless downside risks to forecasts for baseline inflation and external buffers improve.

Download or read book West African Economic and Monetary Union written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-07 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: West African Economic and Monetary Union: Selected Issues

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics in the CEMAC Region written by Carlos Caceres and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses inflation dynamics in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) using a constructed dataset for country-specific commodity price indices and panel cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Imported commodity price shocks are significant in explaining inflation in the region. Governments are another driving force of inflation dynamics mainly through controlled prices and the role of capital expenditure in domestic activity. In most CEMAC countries, the largest effect of global food and fuel prices occurs after four or five quarters in noncore inflation and then decays substantially over time. Second-round effects are significant only in Cameroon and to a lesser extent in the Republic of Congo.

Download or read book West African Economic and Monetary Union written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-02 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Selected Issues

Download or read book West African Economic and Monetary Union written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-13 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: KEY ISSUES Context. The region continued to experience strong growth in 2014, led by the continued economic expansion in Cote d’Ivoire. The outlook is for further strong growth, subject to a range of downward risks, in particular political instability ahead of upcoming elections in several countries, and security issues in Mali and Niger. With an elevated fiscal deficit exerting pressure on the balance of payments and the regional financial market, delays in fiscal consolidation or structural reforms pose the main medium-term risks. Policy recommendations: • Fiscal consolidation. Safeguarding external stability in the region will require governments to adhere to their budget deficit reduction plans while maintaining public investment efforts, which will require increasing tax revenue and controlling current expenditure. • Monetary policy. Macroeconomic conditions do not warrant a tightening of monetary policy at this juncture. However, if fiscal deficits do not decline as envisaged, the BCEAO should consider increasing its policy rates. In the mean time, the BCEAO should very closely follow the evolution of the macro-prudential risks flowing from its sharp increase in commercial bank refinancing. • Financial stability. The WAEMU authorities should enforce existing prudential rules and raise standards to international best practice. Ongoing reforms go in the right direction but need to be accelerated. • Structural transformation and regional integration. Policies to promote structural transformation should focus on addressing weaknesses, such as the lack of education and training, finance, and supportive regulatory environments. Countries should refrain from using the possibility to deviate from the common external tariff of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in force since January 1, 2015, in order to protect the gains from regional integration in WAEMU.

Download or read book West African Economic and Monetary Union written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-05-06 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2010, average inflation has remained low in all West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries, but has edged up in the second half of the year. After a moderate fiscal easing by about 11⁄2 percentage points of GDP in 2009, mostly the result of higher capital spending, the area-wide average deficit is estimated to have declined slightly to 3.1 percent of GDP in 2010. A compression of imports in 2009, the region’s external current account deficit is estimated to have returned to about 51⁄2 percent of GDP in 2010.

Download or read book West African Economic and Monetary Union WAEMU written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-03-22 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The staff report on discussions with regional institutions of the West African Economic and Monetary Union is presented. The region faced a number of challenges in 2011, with the intensification of the political crisis in Côte d’Ivoire and a large increase in global food and fuel prices. A materialization of downside risks could require a monetary policy relaxation for the union and differentiated fiscal responses across member countries. The drought in the Sahel may also require a more active fiscal policy in the affected countries.

Download or read book West African Economic and Monetary Union written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-02 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After almost a decade of strong growth, the WAEMU region is facing severe challenges from a triple crisis impacting the health, economic and security situations. Both fiscal and monetary policies were relaxed significantly in 2020 to contain the pandemic and support the economy. A gradual fiscal consolidation is expected to start in 2021 and bring back the aggregate fiscal deficit towards the 3 percent of GDP regional ceiling within three years. Growth is expected to recover swiftly in 2021–22 to pre-crisis levels, but the economic outlook is still uncertain.

Download or read book West African Economic and Monetary Union written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-07 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The WAEMU’s post-Covid-19 recovery has so far withstood the new global and regional shocks, partly owing to supportive fiscal and monetary policies as well as relatively strong macroeconomic fundamentals over the previous decade. Growth prospects remain favorable, reserves—albeit declining—remain adequate, and the financial system appears to be resilient. However, the region faces important challenges associated with rising inflation, limited access to international capital markets, eroding external buffers, and regional security issues, in the presence of elevated global risks.

Download or read book West African Economic and Monetary Union WAEMU written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-25 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Selected Issues

Download or read book Money Demand and Regional Monetary Policy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union written by Mr.Philipp C. Rother and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-04-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Regional monetary integration, financial liberalization, and the adoption of indirect policy instruments have changed the conditions for monetary policy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The stability of money demand has become a crucial element for monetary policy. This paper presents empirical money demand estimations for regional monetary aggregates and analyzes their stability and forecast performance. The estimations result in a stable relationship for narrow money (M1). Consequently, the region’;s central bank, the BCEAO, can continue to conduct monetary policy in line with the fixed exchange rate system if it succeeds in maintaining financial stability.

Download or read book The West African Economic and Monetary Union written by C. A. François and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-09-30 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following a serious deterioration of the competitive position of the WAEMU region in the 1980s and the eary 1990s, the countries took steps that have led to a significant turnaround in economic activity, a drop in inflation, and increases in output, exports and investment. This study describes policy issues that the region continues to face and suggests how the WAEMU countries can address them.

Download or read book On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub Saharan Africa written by Anh D. M. Nguyen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-08-05 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA’s rapid growth, its integration with the global economy, changes in the policy frameworks, among others, in the last decade suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed. We quantitatively analyze inflation dynamics in SSA using a Global VAR model, which incorporates trade and financial linkages among economies, as well as the role of regional and global demand and inflationary spillovers. We find that in the past 25 years, the main drivers of inflation have been domestic supply shocks and shocks to exchange rate and monetary variables; but that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks to inflation has fallen. Domestic demand pressures as well as global shocks, and particularly shocks to output, however, have played a larger role in driving inflation over the last decade. We also show that country characteristics matter—the extent of oil and food imports, vulnerability to weather shocks, economic importance of agriculture, trade openness and policy regime, among others, help in explaining the role of shocks.

Download or read book West African Economic and Monetary Union written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-13 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: KEY ISSUES Context. The region continued to experience strong growth in 2014, led by the continued economic expansion in Cote d’Ivoire. The outlook is for further strong growth, subject to a range of downward risks, in particular political instability ahead of upcoming elections in several countries, and security issues in Mali and Niger. With an elevated fiscal deficit exerting pressure on the balance of payments and the regional financial market, delays in fiscal consolidation or structural reforms pose the main medium-term risks. Policy recommendations: • Fiscal consolidation. Safeguarding external stability in the region will require governments to adhere to their budget deficit reduction plans while maintaining public investment efforts, which will require increasing tax revenue and controlling current expenditure. • Monetary policy. Macroeconomic conditions do not warrant a tightening of monetary policy at this juncture. However, if fiscal deficits do not decline as envisaged, the BCEAO should consider increasing its policy rates. In the mean time, the BCEAO should very closely follow the evolution of the macro-prudential risks flowing from its sharp increase in commercial bank refinancing. • Financial stability. The WAEMU authorities should enforce existing prudential rules and raise standards to international best practice. Ongoing reforms go in the right direction but need to be accelerated. • Structural transformation and regional integration. Policies to promote structural transformation should focus on addressing weaknesses, such as the lack of education and training, finance, and supportive regulatory environments. Countries should refrain from using the possibility to deviate from the common external tariff of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in force since January 1, 2015, in order to protect the gains from regional integration in WAEMU.

Download or read book Inflation Uncertainty and Relative Price Variability in WAEMU Countries written by Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a consistent dataset and methodology for all eight member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) from 1994 to 2009, this paper provides evidence of the two major channels for real effects of inflation: inflation uncertainty and relative price variability. In line with theory and most evidence for advanced and emerging market economies, higher inflation increases inflation uncertainty and relative price variability in all WAEMU countries. However, the pattern, magnitude and timing of these two channels vary considerably by country. The findings raise several policy issues for future research.

Download or read book How to Improve the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union written by Mr.Alexei Kireyev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-05-05 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) is a currency union with a fixed exchange rate and limited capital mobility and, therefore, an independent monetary policy in the short run. The Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) is conducting the single monetary policy with the main goal of preserving price stability and supporting economic growth. However, the effectiveness of its monetary policy remains low, with a weak reaction of market interest rates and inflation to BCEAO’s policy actions. The paper concludes that, while the institutional setup and the instruments of monetary policy are adequate, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy remains constrained by liquidity management practices, shallow and segmented financial markets, and interest rate rigidities. To improve the effectiveness of monetary policy the BCEAO should be more proactive in determining the stance of fiscal policies, develop financial markets, and liberalize controlled interest rates. The BCEAO is undertaking important reforms in these directions.

Download or read book West African Economic and Monetary Union Discussions with Regional Institutions Staff Report and the Executive Director s Statement written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-07 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.