Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and International Linkages written by Günter Coenen and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and International Linkage written by Günter Coenen and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub Saharan Africa written by Anh D. M. Nguyen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-08-05 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA’s rapid growth, its integration with the global economy, changes in the policy frameworks, among others, in the last decade suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed. We quantitatively analyze inflation dynamics in SSA using a Global VAR model, which incorporates trade and financial linkages among economies, as well as the role of regional and global demand and inflationary spillovers. We find that in the past 25 years, the main drivers of inflation have been domestic supply shocks and shocks to exchange rate and monetary variables; but that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks to inflation has fallen. Domestic demand pressures as well as global shocks, and particularly shocks to output, however, have played a larger role in driving inflation over the last decade. We also show that country characteristics matter—the extent of oil and food imports, vulnerability to weather shocks, economic importance of agriculture, trade openness and policy regime, among others, help in explaining the role of shocks.

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and Global Value Chains written by François de Soyres and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The global economy has witnessed a decline in inflation and an increase in inflation synchronization since the early 1980s. This paper investigates the relationship between inflation synchronization and trade integration, and documents the strong link between inflation co-movement and Global Value Chain (GVC) participation. Using 35 years and both gross and value-added trade flows, evidence shows that an increase in production linkages, as proxied by trade in intermediate inputs, is strongly associated with higher inflation correlation. Moreover, backward GVC participation is associated with an increase in bilateral inflation co-movement while forward participation is linked with a higher correlation between domestic and worldwide inflation. The paper also finds evidence of the effect of trade integration in decreasing inflation levels."--Abstract.

Download or read book Global Value Chain and Inflation Dynamics written by Vu Chau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-22 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the inflationary impacts of pandemic lockdown shocks and fiscal and monetary stimulus during 2020-2022 using a novel harmonized dataset of sectoral producer price inflation and input-output linkages for more than 1000 sectors in 53 countries. The inflationary impact of shocks is identified via a Bartik shift-share design, where shares reflect the heterogeneous sectoral exposure to shocks and are derived from a macroeconomic model of international production network. We find that pandemic lockdowns, and subsequent reopening policies, were the most dominant driver of global inflation in this period, especially through their impact on aggregate demand. We provide a decomposition of lockdown shock by sources, and find that between 20-30 percent of the demand effect of lockdown/reopening is due to spillover from abroad. Finally, while fiscal and monetary policies played an important role in preventing deflation in 2020, their effects diminished in the recovery years.

Download or read book Still Minding the Gap Inflation Dynamics during Episodes of Persistent Large Output Gaps written by Mr.Andre Meier and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well below potential for an extended period. We find that such episodes generally brought about significant disinflation, underpinned by weak labor markets, slowing wage growth, and, in many cases, falling oil prices. Indeed, inflation declined by about the same fraction of the initial inflation rate across episodes. That said, disinflation has tended to taper off at very low positive inflation rates, arguably reflecting downward nominal rigidities and well-anchored inflation expectations. Temporary inflation increases during episodes were, in turn, systematically related to currency depreciation or higher oil prices. Overall, the historical patterns suggest little upside inflation risk in advanced economies facing the prospect of persistent large output gaps.

Download or read book International Linkage of Inflation Rates in a Dynamic General Equilibrium written by Atsumasa Kondo and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Exploring International Differences in Inflation Dynamics written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book U S Inflation Dynamics written by Ravi Balakrishnan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-06 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aims to improve the understanding of U.S. inflation dynamics by separating out structural from cyclical effects using frequency domain techniques. Most empirical studies of inflation dynamics do not distinguish between secular and cyclical movements, and we show that such a distinction is critical. In particular, we study traditional Phillips curve (TPC) and new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models of inflation, and conclude that the long-run secular decline in inflation cannot be explained in terms of changes in external trade and global factor markets. These variables tend to impact inflation primarily over the business cycle. We infer that the secular decline in inflation may well reflect improved monetary policy credibility and, thus, maintaining low inflation in the long run is closely linked to anchored inflation expectations.

Download or read book Trade Linkages and the Globalisation of Inflation in Asia and the Pacific written by Raphael A. Auer and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some observers argue that increased real integration has led to greater co-movement of prices internationally. We examine the evidence for cross-border price spillovers among economies participating in the pan-Asian cross-border production networks. Starting with country-level data, we find that both producer price and consumer price inflation rates move more closely together between those Asian economies that trade more with one another, ie that share a higher degree of trade intensity. Next, using a novel data set based on the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), we examine the importance of the supply chain for cross-border price spillovers at the sectoral level. We document the increasing importance of imported intermediate inputs for economies in the Asia-Pacific region and examine the impact on domestic producer prices of changes in costs of imported intermediate inputs. Our results suggest that real integration through the supply chain matters for domestic price dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region.

Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Download or read book Inflation as a Global Phenomenon Some Implications for Policy Analysis and Forecasting written by Ayşe Kabukcuoglu Dur and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We evaluate the performance of inflation forecasts based on the open-economy Phillips curve by exploiting the spatial pattern of international propagation of inflation. We model these spatial linkages using global inflation and either domestic slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a novel interpretation of the forecasting implications of the workhorse openeconomy New Keynesian model (Martínez-García and Wynne (2010), Kabukcuoglu and Martínez-García (2014)). We find that incorporating spatial interactions yields significantly more accurate forecasts of local inflation in 14 advanced countries (including the U.S.) than a simple autoregressive model that captures only the temporal dimension of the inflation dynamics.

Download or read book Inflation Dynamic written by Weshah Razzak and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book explains inflation dynamic, using time series data from 1960 for 42 countries. These countries are different in every aspect, historically, culturally, socially, politically, institutionally, and economically. They are chosen on the basis of the data availability only and cover the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Europe, Australasia, and the United States. Inflation reached double digits in the developed countries in the 1970s and 80s, and then central banks, successfully stabilized it by anchoring inflation expectations for decades, until now. Conditional on common and country-specific shocks such as oil price shocks, financial and banking and political crises, wars, pandemics, natural disasters etc., the book tests various theoretical models about the long and short run relationships between money and prices, money growth and inflation, money growth and real output, expected inflation; the output gap, fiscal policy, and inflation, using a number of parametric and non-parametric methods, and pays attention to specifications and estimations problems. In addition, it explains why policymakers in inflation - targeting countries, e.g. the U.S., failed to anticipate the recent sudden rise in inflation. And, it examines the fallibility of the Modern Monetary Theory's policy prescription to reduce inflation by raising taxes. This is a unique and innovative book, which will find an audience among students, academics, researchers, policy makers, analysts in corporations, private and central banks and international monetary institutions"--

Download or read book Global Inflation Dynamics and Inflation Expectations written by Martin Feldkircher and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Evolving International Inflation Dynamics written by Haroon Mumtaz and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book Inflation Targeting Debt and the Brazilian Experience 1999 to 2003 written by Francesco Giavazzi and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How Brazil's monetary and fiscal policies survived a series of severe economic shocks and the policy lessons for other countries. Inflation targeting -- when central bank policies set specific inflation rate objectives -- is widely used by both developed and developing countries around the world (although not by the United States or the European Central Bank). This collection of original essays looks at how Brazil's policy of inflation targeting, coupled with a floating exchange rate, survived a series of severe economic shocks and examines the policy lessons that can be drawn from Brazil's experience. After a successful start in early 1999, Brazil's policy regime had to manage mounting difficulties, including a sudden reversal of capital flows and its effects on the exchange rate and public debt, the contagion of Argentina's severe economic problems, a domestic energy crisis, and the political uncertainty of the 2002 presidential campaign. The contributors, prominent Brazilian and international economists, draw important lessons from Brazil's experience, including the necessity of accompanying monetary policy with fiscal improvement, the trade-offs involved in dollar-linked debt, the importance of fiscal institutions in an emerging market economy, and the importance of keeping inflation under control.