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Book Inflation Dynamics and Global Value Chains

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and Global Value Chains written by François de Soyres and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The global economy has witnessed a decline in inflation and an increase in inflation synchronization since the early 1980s. This paper investigates the relationship between inflation synchronization and trade integration, and documents the strong link between inflation co-movement and Global Value Chain (GVC) participation. Using 35 years and both gross and value-added trade flows, evidence shows that an increase in production linkages, as proxied by trade in intermediate inputs, is strongly associated with higher inflation correlation. Moreover, backward GVC participation is associated with an increase in bilateral inflation co-movement while forward participation is linked with a higher correlation between domestic and worldwide inflation. The paper also finds evidence of the effect of trade integration in decreasing inflation levels."--Abstract.

Book Global Value Chain and Inflation Dynamics

Download or read book Global Value Chain and Inflation Dynamics written by Vu Chau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-22 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the inflationary impacts of pandemic lockdown shocks and fiscal and monetary stimulus during 2020-2022 using a novel harmonized dataset of sectoral producer price inflation and input-output linkages for more than 1000 sectors in 53 countries. The inflationary impact of shocks is identified via a Bartik shift-share design, where shares reflect the heterogeneous sectoral exposure to shocks and are derived from a macroeconomic model of international production network. We find that pandemic lockdowns, and subsequent reopening policies, were the most dominant driver of global inflation in this period, especially through their impact on aggregate demand. We provide a decomposition of lockdown shock by sources, and find that between 20-30 percent of the demand effect of lockdown/reopening is due to spillover from abroad. Finally, while fiscal and monetary policies played an important role in preventing deflation in 2020, their effects diminished in the recovery years.

Book Inflation Dynamics in Advanced Economies  A Decomposition Into Cyclical and Non Cyclical Factors

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics in Advanced Economies A Decomposition Into Cyclical and Non Cyclical Factors written by Weicheng Lian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-05-13 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation and unemployment rate were largely disconnected between 2000 and 2019 in advanced economies. We decompose core inflation into two parts based on the cyclical sensitivity of CPI components and document several salient facts: (i) both the cyclical and non-cyclical parts had surges across advaced economies in 2011, when unemployment rates had limited changes; (ii) the non-cyclical part had a downward trend between 2012 and 2019, which existed across countries, sectors, goods, and services; (iii) global indexes such as oil price, shipping costs, and a global supply chain pressure index do not explain the downward trend; and (iv) the cyclical part, after controlling for the impact of economic slack, also had a downward trend between 2012 and 2019. These patterns help disentangle competing explanations for the disconnect between inflation and unemployment rate. The approach has potential to help understand forces shaping price pressures during the pandemic and in the post-pandemic period ahead.

Book World Development Report 2020

Download or read book World Development Report 2020 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-11-19 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.

Book Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of GVCs on Economic Development

Download or read book Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of GVCs on Economic Development written by World Trade Organization and published by World Trade Organization. This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is about a huge contribution to our deepening understanding of what the global economy really means and how it is changing. The report helpfully distinguishes elements of an economy that are tradable and the large set that are non-tradable. Clearly the tradables set is expanding with the support of enabling technology. The report argues that connectivity in the networks that define the evolving architecture of GVCs is important. This Global Value Chain Development Report is the result of intensive and detailed work in assembling and analyzing data on the structure of economies and on how they are linked. It creates a much clearer picture of evolving patterns of independence. It also presents a much clearer picture of comparative advantage. --Publisher description.

Book Is Digitalization Driving Domestic Inflation

Download or read book Is Digitalization Driving Domestic Inflation written by Mr.Balazs Csonto and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-06 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the extent to which digitalization—measured by a new proxy based on IP addresses allocations per country—has influenced inflation dynamics in a sample of 36 advanced and emerging economies over 2000-2017. Phillips curve estimates show that digitalization has a statistically significant negative effect on inflation in the short run. Its economic impact is not large but has increased since 2012 and mainly operates through a cost/competition channel. Principal components and cointegration analysis further suggest digitalization is a key driver of lower trend inflation.

Book Handbook on Global Value Chains

Download or read book Handbook on Global Value Chains written by Stefano Ponte and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2019 with total page 640 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global value chains (GVCs) are a key feature of the global economy in the 21st century. They show how international investment and trade create cross-border production networks that link countries, firms and workers around the globe. This Handbook describes how GVCs arise and vary across industries and countries, and how they have evolved over time in response to economic and political forces. With chapters written by leading interdisciplinary scholars, the Handbook unpacks the key concepts of GVC governance and upgrading, and explores policy implications for advanced and developing economies alike. p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 10.0px Arial}

Book Inflation Dynamics

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics written by Kristin Forbes and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation dynamics have been difficult to explain over the last decade. This paper explores if a more comprehensive treatment of globalization can help. CPI inflation has become more synchronized around the world since the 2008 crisis, but core and wage inflation have become less synchronized. Global factors (including commodity prices, world slack, exchange rates, and global value chains) are significant drivers of CPI inflation in a cross-section of countries, and their role has increased over the last decade, particularly the role of non-fuel commodity prices. These global factors, however, do less to improve our understanding of core and wage inflation. Key results are robust to using a less-structured trend-cycle decomposition instead of a Phillips curve framework, with the set of global variables more important for understanding the cyclical component of inflation over the last decade, but not the underlying slow-moving inflation trend. Domestic slack still plays a role for all the inflation measures, although globalization has caused some “flattening” of this relationship, especially for CPI inflation. Although CPI inflation is increasingly “determined abroad”, core and wage inflation is still largely a domestic process.

Book Here Comes the Change  The Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post Pandemic Inflation in Europe

Download or read book Here Comes the Change The Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post Pandemic Inflation in Europe written by Mahir Binici and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-12-09 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, threatening to become an entrenched phenomenon. This paper disentangles the confluence of contributing factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price inflation, using monthly data and a battery of econometric methodologies covering a panel of 30 European countries over the period 2002-2022. We find that while global factors continue to shape inflation dynamics throughout Europe, country-specific factors, including monetary and fiscal policy responses to the crisis, have also gained greater prominence in determining consumer price inflation during the pandemic period. Coupled with increasing persistence in inflation, these structural shifts call for significant and an extended period of monetary tightening and fiscal realignment.

Book Brookings Papers on Economic Activity  Spring 2017

Download or read book Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Spring 2017 written by Janice Eberly and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2017-10-10 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues.

Book Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World

Download or read book Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World written by Olivier Cattaneo and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2010 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book looks to address the following questions in a post-crisis world: How have lead firms responded to the crisis? Have they changed their traditional supply chain strategy and relocated and/or outsourced part of their production? How will those changes affect developing countries? What should be the policy responses to these changes?

Book Global Value Chains and Productivity  Micro Evidence from Estonia

Download or read book Global Value Chains and Productivity Micro Evidence from Estonia written by Hang T. Banh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-07-03 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented collapse in global economic activity and trade. The crisis has also highlighted the role played by global value chains (GVC), with countries facing shortages of components vital to everything from health systems to everyday household goods. Despite the vulnerabilities associated with increased interconnectedness, GVCs have also contributed to increasing productivity and long-term growth. We explore empirically the impact of GVC participation on productivity in Estonia using firm-level data from 2000 to 2016. We find that higher GVC participation at the industry level significantly boosts productivity at both the industry and the firm level. Frontier firms, large firms, and exporting firms also benefit more from GVC participation than non-frontier firms, small firms, and non-exporting firms. We also find that GVC participation of downstream industries has a negative correlation with productivity. Frontier firms and large firms benefit more from GVC participation of upstream industries, while non-frontier firms and small firms benefit more from GVC participation of downstream industries. Our results suggest that policies designed to promote participation in GVCs are important to raise aggregate productivity and potential growth in Estonia.

Book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies

Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Book Exploring International Differences in Inflation Dynamics

Download or read book Exploring International Differences in Inflation Dynamics written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Book Inflation Expectations

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Book Global Value Chains  What are the Benefits and Why Do Countries Participate

Download or read book Global Value Chains What are the Benefits and Why Do Countries Participate written by Ms.Faezeh Raei and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-18 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last two decades, world trade and production have become increasingly organized around global value chains (GVC). Recent theoretical work has shown that countries can benefit from participation in GVCs through multiple channels. However, little is known empirically about the economic importance of supply chains. We use the Eora MRIO database to compute different measures of GVC participation for 189 countries and illustrate global patterns of supply chains as well as their evolution over time in order to contribute to this topic. We find that GVC-related trade, rather than conventional trade, has a positive impact on income per capita and productivity, however there is large heterogeneity and the gains appear more signifcant for upper-middle and high-income countries. We document that “moving up” to more high-tech sectors while participating in major supply chains does take place but is not universal, suggesting other factors matter. We confirm the findings of the standard gravity literature for GVC trade; highlighting the key role of institutional features such as contract enforcement and the quality of infrastructure as determinants of GVC participation.