Download or read book Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey written by Faruk Selcuk and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-04-27 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title was first published in 2002. Since the 1990s Turkey has experienced a number of disasters, both physical and economic. The result has been a decrease in economic performance compared to other European states. This study addresses the country's ongoing economic struggles.
Download or read book Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey written by Faruk Selcuk and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This title was first published in 2002. Since the 1990s Turkey has experienced a number of disasters, both physical and economic. The result has been a decrease in economic performance compared to other European states. This study addresses the country's ongoing economic struggles."--Provided by publisher.
Download or read book Disinflation Fiscal Sustainability and Labor Market Adjustment in Turkey written by Pierre-Richard Ag??nor and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012 with total page 119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy and fiscal adjustment on output and unemployment in Turkey. The model on which the analysis is based accounts for rural-urban migration, a large urban informal sector, flexible exchange rates, a dollarized banking system, and interactions between default risk on government liabilities, credibility, and inflation expectations. The short- and long-run effects of a rise in official interest rates and tax increases are analyzed. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the link between default risk and credibility in understanding the real and financial effects of macroeconomic adjustment.
Download or read book Would Cold Turkey Work in Turkey written by Oya Celasun and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-03-01 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Persistently high inflation rates have led many to believe that inflation in Turkey has become "inertial," posing an obstacle to disinflation. We assess the empirical validity of this argument. We find that the current degree of inflation persistence in Turkey is lower than in Brazil and Uruguay prior to their successful stabilization programs. More significantly, expectations of future inflation are more important than past inflation in shaping the inflation process, providing little evidence of "backward-looking" behavior. Using survey data, we find that inflation expectations, in turn, depend largely on the evolution of fiscal variables.
Download or read book Inflation Stabilization in Turkey written by Luc Everaert and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1992 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adding estimated behavioral equations to the standard RMSM- X model allows it to simulate the short- run consequences of inflation stabilization.
Download or read book Turkey written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-12-03 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews economic developments in Turkey during 1992–96. The Turkish economy rebounded in 1995, with real gross national product rising by 8.1 percent, reversing the decline of 6.1 percent in 1994. A strong pickup in activity in the second and third quarters of 1995 more than compensated for the continued weakness in the first quarter and a slight decline in the fourth quarter caused by uncertainty in the run-up to the elections. Industry performed strongly, with a growth rate of 12.1 percent, followed by services (6.4 percent) and agriculture (2.6 percent).
Download or read book An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey written by Ms.G. C. Lim and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-12-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High and variable inflation has been a central feature of the Turkish economy since the 1970s. This paper seeks to shed some light on the determinants of inflation in Turkey by analyzing price determination within the framework of a multi-sector macroeconomic model during 1970–95. The main findings are that monetary variables (initially money, more recently the exchange rate) play a central role in the inflationary process, that public sector deficits contribute to inflationary pressures, and that inertial factors are quantitatively important. Policymakers’ commitment to active exchange rate depreciation on several occasions in the past 15 years has also contributed to the inflationary process.
Download or read book Disinflation Fiscal Sustainability and Labor Market Adjustment in Turkey written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy and fiscal adjustment on output and unemployment in Turkey. The model on which the analysis is based accounts for rural-urban migration, a large urban informal sector, flexible exchange rates, a dollarized banking system, and interactions between default risk on government liabilities, credibility, and inflation expectations. The short- and long-run effects of a rise in official interest rates and tax increases are analyzed. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the link between default risk and credibility in understanding the real and financial effects of macroeconomic adjustment.
Download or read book Perspectives on High Real Interest Rates in Turkey written by Prakash Kannan and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2008-10-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Turkish economy is typically characterized as having particularly high real interest rates. Fundamental considerations, such as high growth rates or high returns to capital, do not provide a satisfactory resolution of this puzzle. Instead, we find that two other factors- doubts about the sustainability of disinflation and the existence of a risk premium-have a significant impact on the level of real interest rates in Turkey. Importantly, fiscal policy variables are shown to affect both these factors, suggesting that a more credible and prudent fiscal policy can help reduce real interest rates in Turkey.
Download or read book The History of Inflation in Turkey written by Fatma Doğruel and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Turkish Banking written by Alper Kara and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2009-01-15 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Alongside the successful IMF-led disinflation program, the potential start of negotiation talks for Turkey's membership of the European Union is likely to intensify the interest of foreign investors in Turkey's economy. This book explores the evolution and performance of the Turkish banking sector. In particular, the repercussions of overall economic structure, financial crises and political instability on its financial sector are analyzed. Further, the prospects for the future of banking sectors in the context of ongoing economic restructuring and EU integration are scrutinized.
Download or read book Inflation and Disinflation written by Leonardo Leiderman and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1993-07-15 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the early 1980s, Israel's inflation rate rose to almost 500% per year—one of the highest inflation rates in the developed world. In 1985, the Israeli government implemented a program that immediately reduced inflation to 15%-20%, where it remained for the rest of the decade. How did the economy deal with these major changes so rapidly and successfully? In these eighteen articles, Leonardo Leiderman discusses why the Israeli plan worked and considers how other countries might benefit from similar policies. Even though standard economic models predict that output will drop and unemployment will rise during disinflation, Israel saw a boom in private consumption and large increases in real wages that lasted for about three years. To understand how the effects of Israeli disinflation policies defied typical expectations, Leiderman investigates how monetary fiscal policy determined Israel's runaway inflation and how the country brought its economy abruptly under control. He finds that rates of inflation and consumption depend on the public's expectations about future fiscal adjustments and that foreign trade shocks do not inevitably lead to a long-term rise in the inflation rate. His illumination of international trade and domestic policies, past and present, will interest academic economists and policymakers alike.
Download or read book A Coup in Turkey written by Jeremy Seal and published by Random House. This book was released on 2021-02-04 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most dramatic, revealing and little-known story in Turkey's history - which illuminates the nation 'Through the spellbinding career of a single, ill-fated leader, Jeremy Seal illuminates a bitterly divided country' Colin Thubron 'Read this book if you're interested in Turkey. Read it if you're interested in power, hubris and redemption. Read it' Christopher de Bellaigue, author of The Islamic Enlightenment In the spring of 2016 travel writer Jeremy Seal went to Turkey to investigate perhaps the most dramatic, revealing and little-known episode in the country's history - the 'original' coup of 1960, which deposed the traditionalist Prime Minister Adnan Menderes. The story of Menderes - to his adoring supporters the country's founding democrat; to his sworn enemies its most infamous traitor - goes to the heart of the feud that continues to rage between the Western and secular ambitions of a minority elite and the religious and conservative instincts of the small-town majority. A Coup in Turkey is a thrilling account of the events leading up to the coup and the trials and executions that followed, a story of political subterfuge and score-settling, courtroom drama, state execution, authoritarian intolerance and ideological division. Seal travels through President Erdogan's Turkey, tracking down eye-witness accounts from survivors of the Menderes era in Istanbul, the historic metropolis, and the new capital at Ankara. As he expertly guides us through this extraordinary story, so the compelling parallels between past and present become strikingly clear, and he illuminates this troubled nation with a deep sympathy and love for the people and places he writes about. By focussing on one key event - one which many Turks regard with shame - this evocative, gripping portrait of Turkey recentres our understanding of the past and makes sense of one of Europe's most bewildering yet intriguing neighbours. 'A wonderful writer' Robert Macfarlane
Download or read book Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting written by Olivier J. Blanchard and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A standard proposition in open-economy macroeconomics is that a central-bank-engineered increase in the real interest rate makes domestic government debt more attractive and leads to a real appreciation. If, however, the increase in the real interest rate also increases the probability of default on the debt, the effect may be instead to make domestic government debt less attractive, and to lead to a real depreciation. That outcome is more likely the higher the initial level of debt, the higher the proportion of foreign-currency-denominated debt, and the higher the price of risk. Under that outcome, inflation targeting can clearly have perverse effects: An increase in the real interest in response to higher inflation leads to a real depreciation. The real depreciation leads in turn to a further increase in inflation. In this case, fiscal policy, not monetary policy, is the right instrument to decrease inflation. This paper argues that this is the situation the Brazilian economy found itself in in 2002 and 2003. It presents a model of the interaction between the interest rate, the exchange rate, and the probability of default, in a high-debt high-risk-aversion economy such as Brazil during that period. It then estimates the model, using Brazilian data. It concludes that, in 2002, the level and the composition of public debt in Brazil, and the general level of risk aversion in world financial markets, were indeed such as to imply perverse effects of the interest rate on the exchange rate and on inflation"--NBER website
Download or read book COVID 19 and Emerging Markets written by Cem Çakmaklı and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model to Turkey. Sectoral supply shocks are based on the proximity requirements in each sector and the ability to work from home. Physical proximity determines the supply shock through its effect on infection rates. Sectoral demand shocks incorporate domestic and foreign demand, both of which adjust with infection rates. We calibrate demand shocks during COVID-19 using real-time credit card purchase data. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under a full lockdown of 39 days. Economic costs are much larger for an open economy as the shocks are amplified through the international production network. A decline in foreign demand leads to losses in domestic sectors through international input-output linkages, accounting for a third of the total output loss. In addition, the reduction in capital flows deprives the network from its trade financing needs, where sectors with larger external finance needs experience larger losses. The policy options are limited given sparse fiscal resources to fight the pandemic domestically, while serving the external debt. We present historical evidence from 2001 crisis of Turkey, when fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies were employed altogether to deal with a triple crisis of balance of payments, banking, and sovereign debt
Download or read book Theories of Inflation written by Helmut Frisch and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1983 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A survey of the new theories of inflation that have developed over the past two decades in response to the inflationary pressures experienced by Western countries examines the shifting debate from explaining inflation as a "causal" process to explaining its increase as a result of constantly changing expectations.
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
