Download or read book Individual Choice Under Certainty and Uncertainty written by Kenneth Joseph Arrow and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1984 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The third volume of Arrow's Collected Papers concerns the basic concept of rationality as it applies to an economic decision maker. In particular, it addresses the problem of choice faced by consumers in a multicommodity world and presents specific models of choice useful in economic analysis. It also discusses choice models under uncertainty.

Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Download or read book Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty written by Itzhak Gilboa and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-03-16 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

Download or read book Essays in Honor of Kenneth J Arrow Volume 3 Uncertainty Information and Communication written by Walter P. Heller and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1986-09-26 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The third in a series of volumes published in honour of Professor Kenneth J. Arrow, each covering a different area of economic theory.

Download or read book Prospect Theory written by Daniel Kahneman and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by David E. Bell and published by Thomson South-Western. This book was released on 1995 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These authors draw on nearly 50 years of combined teaching and consulting experience to give readers a straightforward yet systematic approach for making estimates about the likelihood and consequences of future events -- and then using those assessments to arrive at sound decisions. The book's real-world cases, supplemented with expository text and spreadsheets, help readers master such techniques as decision trees and simulation, such concepts as probability, the value of information, and strategic gaming; and such applications as inventory stocking problems, bidding situations, and negotiating.

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets written by Antonio J. Conejo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 549 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets provides models and procedures to be used by electricity market agents to make informed decisions under uncertainty. These procedures rely on well established stochastic programming models, which make them efficient and robust. Particularly, these techniques allow electricity producers to derive offering strategies for the pool and contracting decisions in the futures market. Retailers use these techniques to derive selling prices to clients and energy procurement strategies through the pool, the futures market and bilateral contracting. Using the proposed models, consumers can derive the best energy procurement strategies using the available trading floors. The market operator can use the techniques proposed in this book to clear simultaneously energy and reserve markets promoting efficiency and equity. The techniques described in this book are of interest for professionals working on energy markets, and for graduate students in power engineering, applied mathematics, applied economics, and operations research.

Download or read book Collected Papers of Kenneth J Arrow Individual choice under certainty and uncertainty written by Kenneth Joseph Arrow and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Cognitive Economics written by Paul Bourgine and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-20 with total page 479 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The social sciences study knowing subjects and their interactions. A "cog nitive turn", based on cognitive science, has the potential to enrich these sciences considerably. Cognitive economics belongs within this movement of the social sciences. It aims to take into account the cognitive processes of individuals in economic theory, both on the level of the agent and on the level of their dynamic interactions and the resulting collective phenomena. This is an ambitious research programme that aims to link two levels of com plexity: the level of cognitive phenomena as studied and tested by cognitive science, and the level of collective phenomena produced by the economic in teractions between agents. Such an objective requires cooperation, not only between economists and cognitive scientists but also with mathematicians, physicists and computer scientists, in order to renew, study and simulate models of dynamical systems involving economic agents and their cognitive mechanisms. The hard core of classical economics is the General Equilibrium Theory, based on the optimising rationality of the agent and on static concepts of equilibrium, following a point of view systemised in the framework of Game Theory. The agent is considered "rational" if everything takes place as if he was maximising a function representing his preferences, his utility function.

Download or read book Economic and Financial Decisions under Risk written by Louis Eeckhoudt and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-30 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An understanding of risk and how to deal with it is an essential part of modern economics. Whether liability litigation for pharmaceutical firms or an individual's having insufficient wealth to retire, risk is something that can be recognized, quantified, analyzed, treated--and incorporated into our decision-making processes. This book represents a concise summary of basic multiperiod decision-making under risk. Its detailed coverage of a broad range of topics is ideally suited for use in advanced undergraduate and introductory graduate courses either as a self-contained text, or the introductory chapters combined with a selection of later chapters can represent core reading in courses on macroeconomics, insurance, portfolio choice, or asset pricing. The authors start with the fundamentals of risk measurement and risk aversion. They then apply these concepts to insurance decisions and portfolio choice in a one-period model. After examining these decisions in their one-period setting, they devote most of the book to a multiperiod context, which adds the long-term perspective most risk management analyses require. Each chapter concludes with a discussion of the relevant literature and a set of problems. The book presents a thoroughly accessible introduction to risk, bridging the gap between the traditionally separate economics and finance literatures.

Download or read book Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1982-04-30 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Download or read book Uncertainty written by Patrik Aspers and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2024-07-17 with total page 233 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read on the Oxford Academic platform and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations. In Uncertainty, Patrik Aspers provides detailed analysis of publicly available means of uncertainty reduction. Drawing on phenomenology, social constructionism, and the sociology of knowledge, Aspers considers the meaningful differences between uncertainty and risk, the different ways people cope and have coped with uncertainty through history, the importance of knowledge and science to reducing uncertainty, and the trade-offs involved in reducing forms of uncertainty while leaving open opportunities for others. People may have access to unique and private knowledge that reduces their uncertainty when making decisions. Publicly available knowledge is central for building a society that enables communication based on shared ideas and understanding, instead of falling into bubbles, echo chambers, and private truths. Examples include institutions, laws, standards, evaluation, competition, and ranking. The book addresses how these reduce uncertainty and how these ways are created. Examining what people can and in fact do to reduce uncertainty, Aspers addresses the existential dimension of uncertainty, the collective efforts and socially produced outcomes that lead to reduced uncertainty, and the social order that results.

Download or read book Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making written by Leonard C. MacLean and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013 with total page 941 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).

Download or read book Decisions with Multiple Objectives written by Ralph L. Keeney and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1993-07 with total page 596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe their thoughts and feelings in order to make the critically important trade-offs between incommensurable objectives.

Download or read book Collective Decision Making written by Adrian Van Deemen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-06-03 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Harrie de Swart is a Dutch logician and mathematician with a great and open int- est in applications of logic. After being confronted with Arrow’s Theorem, Harrie became very interested in social choice theory. In 1986 he took the initiative to start up a group of Dutch scientists for the study of social choice theory. This initiative grew out to a research group and a series of colloquia, which were held approximately every month at the University of Tilburg in The Netherlands. The organization of the colloquia was in the hands of Harrie and under his guidance they became more and more internationally known. Many international scholars liked visiting the social choice colloquia in Tilburg and enjoyed giving one or more presentations about their work. They liked Harrie’s kindness and hospitality, and the openness of the group for anything and everything in the eld of social choice. The Social Choice Theory Group started up by Harrie consisted, and still c- sists, of scholars from several disciplines; mostly economics, mathematics, and (mathematical) psychology. It was set up for the study of and discussion about anything that had to do with social choice theory including, and not in the least, the supervision of PhD students in the theory. Members of the group were, among o- ers, Thom Bezembinder (psychologist), Hans Peters (mathematician), Pieter Ruys (economist), Stef Tijs (mathematician and game theorist) and, of course, Harrie de Swart (logician and mathematician).

Download or read book Generalized Expected Utility Theory written by John Quiggin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1993 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic analysis of choice under uncertainty has been dominated by the expected utility (EU) model, yet the EU model has never been without critics. Psychologists accumulated evidence that individual choices under uncertainty were inconsistent with the predictions of the EU model. Applied work in areas such as finance was dominated by the simpler mean-variance analysis. In the 1980s this skepticism was dispelled as a number of generalizations of EU were proposed, most of which were capable of explaining evidence inconsistent with EU, while preserving transitivity and dominance. Generalized expected utility is now a flourishing subfield of economics, with dozens of competing models and considerable literature exploring their theoretical properties and comparing their empirical performance. But the EU model remains the principal tool for the analysis of choice under uncertainty. There is a view that generalized models are too difficult to handle or incapable of generating sharp results. This creates a need to show that the new models can be used in the kinds of economic analysis for which EU has been used, and that they can yield new and interesting results. This book meets this need by describing one of the most popular generalized models -- the rank-dependent expected utility model (RDEU), also known as anticipated utility, EU with rank-dependent preferences, the dual theory of choice under uncertainty, and simply as rank-dependent utility. As the many names indicate, the model has been approached in many ways by many scientists and for this reason, consideration of a single model sheds light on many of the concerns that have motivated the development of generalized utility models. The popularity of the RDEU model rests on its simplicity and tractability. The standard tools of analysis developed for EU theory may be applied to the RDEU model, but since RDEU admits behavior inconsistent with EU, the field of potential applications is widened. As such, the RDEU model is not as much a competitor to EU as an extension based on less restrictive assumptions.

Download or read book The Rationality Quotient written by Keith E. Stanovich and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2018-02-09 with total page 479 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to assess critical aspects of cognitive functioning that are not measured by IQ tests: rational thinking skills. Why are we surprised when smart people act foolishly? Smart people do foolish things all the time. Misjudgments and bad decisions by highly educated bankers and money managers, for example, brought us the financial crisis of 2008. Smart people do foolish things because intelligence is not the same as the capacity for rational thinking. The Rationality Quotient explains that these two traits, often (and incorrectly) thought of as one, refer to different cognitive functions. The standard IQ test, the authors argue, doesn't measure any of the broad components of rationality—adaptive responding, good judgment, and good decision making. The authors show that rational thinking, like intelligence, is a measurable cognitive competence. Drawing on theoretical work and empirical research from the last two decades, they present the first prototype for an assessment of rational thinking analogous to the IQ test: the CART (Comprehensive Assessment of Rational Thinking). The authors describe the theoretical underpinnings of the CART, distinguishing the algorithmic mind from the reflective mind. They discuss the logic of the tasks used to measure cognitive biases, and they develop a unique typology of thinking errors. The Rationality Quotient explains the components of rational thought assessed by the CART, including probabilistic and scientific reasoning; the avoidance of “miserly” information processing; and the knowledge structures needed for rational thinking. Finally, the authors discuss studies of the CART and the social and practical implications of such a test. An appendix offers sample items from the test.