Download or read book Incorporation of Uncertainties in Real time Catchment Flood Forecasting written by Charles Steven Melching and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Incorporation of Uncertainties in Real time Catchment Flood Forecasting written by Charles Steven Melching and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems written by Shreeda Maskey and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2004-11-23 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable. This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based criteria. This book presents the development and applications of various methods based on probablity and fuzzy set theories for modelling uncertainty in flood forecasting systems. In particular, it presents a methodology for uncertainty assessment using disaggregation of time series inputs in the framework of both the Monte Carlo method and the Fuzzy Extention Principle. It reports an improvement in the First Order Second Moment method, using second degree reconstruction, and derives qualitative scales for the interpretation of qualitative uncertainty. Application is to flood forecasting models for the Klodzko catchment in POland and the Loire River in France. Prospects for the hybrid techniques of uncertainty modelling and probability-possibility transformations are also explored and reported.
Download or read book Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management written by Keith J Beven and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 685 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides an introduction for flood risk management practitioners, up-to-date methods for analysis of uncertainty and its use in risk-based decision making. It addresses decision making for both short-term (real-time forecasting) and long-term (flood risk planning under change) situations. It aims primarily at technical practitioners involved in flood risk analysis and flood warning, including hydrologists, engineers, flood modelers, risk analysts and those involved in the design and operation of flood warning systems. Many experienced practitioners are now expected to modify their way of working to fit into the new philosophy of flood risk management. This volume helps them to undertake that task with appropriate attention to the surrounding uncertainties. The book will also interest and benefit researchers and graduate students hoping to improve their knowledge of modern uncertainty analysis.
Download or read book Selected Water Resources Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 884 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Selected Water Resources Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 1424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Online Flood Forecasting in Fast Responding Catchments on the Basis of a Synthesis of Artificial Neural Networks and Process Models written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed and comprehensive description of the state of the art in the field of flood forecasting opens this work. Advantages and shortcomings of currently available methods are identified and discussed. Amongst others, one important aspect considers the most exigent weak point of today's forecasting systems: The representation of all the fundamentally different event specific patterns of flood formation with one single set of model parameters. The study exemplarily proposes an alternative for overcoming this restriction by taking into account the different process characteristics of flood events via a dynamic parameterisation strategy. Other fundamental shortcomings in current approaches especially restrict the potential for real time flash flood forecasting, namely the considerable computational requirements together with the rather cumbersome operation of reliable physically based hydrologic models. The new PAI-OFF methodology (Process Modelling and Artificial Intelligence for Online Flood Forecasting) considers these problems and offers a way out of the general dilemma. It combines the reliability and predictive power of physically based, hydrologic models with the operational advantages of artificial intelligence. These operational advantages feature extremely low computation times, absolute robustness and straightforward operation. Such qualities easily allow for predicting flash floods in small catchments taking into account precipitation forecasts, whilst extremely basic computational requirements open the way for online Monte Carlo analysis of the forecast uncertainty. The study encompasses a detailed analysis of hydrological modeling and a problem specific artificial intelligence approach in the form of artificial neural networks, which build the PAI-OFF methodology. Herein, the synthesis of process modelling and artificial neural networks is achieved by a special training procedure. It optimizes the network according to the patterns of possible catchment.
Download or read book Taming the Yellow River Silt and Floods written by L.M. Brush and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 684 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About four years ago Dr. Gilbert White visited China and sowed the seeds of this project through conversations with Drs. Huang and Gong of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Mr. Long of the Yellow River Conservancy Commission. After some additional rounds of communications by letter, the plan for a workshop evolved and Drs. Wolman and Brush visited with Dr. Sabadell of the Nat_ional Science Foundation to begin the initial planning. In March 1987 Dr. Brush visited China and the details were worked out for the October 1987 workshop. At the outset it was recognized that the 10 American scientists and engineers ltad very Ii ttle knowledge of the Yellow River and none had ever seen it. Therefore, it became important that field trips be scheduled before the workshop to better set the stage for fruitful discussions. It was also acknowledged that the American participants could not present papers about the Yellow River per se so their offerings reflected their general knowledge of rivers using other rivers as examples. On the other hand the Chinese participants were all well into the difficult problems of harnessing the Yellow River and made their presentations accordingly. Despite these differences the subject matter was the unifying thread and cross communication was excellent.
Download or read book Improving Flood Prediction Assimilating Uncertain Crowdsourced Data into Hydrologic and Hydraulic Models written by Maurizio Mazzoleni and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-03-16 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the continued technological advances have led to the spread of low-cost sensors and devices supporting crowdsourcing as a way to obtain observations of hydrological variables in a more distributed way than the classic static physical sensors. The main advantage of using these type of sensors is that they can be used not only by technicians but also by regular citizens. However, due to their relatively low reliability and varying accuracy in time and space, crowdsourced observations have not been widely integrated in hydrological and/or hydraulic models for flood forecasting applications. Instead, they have generally been used to validate model results against observations, in post-event analyses. This research aims to investigate the benefits of assimilating the crowdsourced observations, coming from a distributed network of heterogeneous physical and social (static and dynamic) sensors, within hydrological and hydraulic models, in order to improve flood forecasting. The results of this study demonstrate that crowdsourced observations can significantly improve flood prediction if properly integrated in hydrological and hydraulic models. This study provides technological support to citizen observatories of water, in which citizens not only can play an active role in information capturing, evaluation and communication, leading to improved model forecasts and better flood management.
Download or read book Dynamic Flood Inundation Forecasting in Real time Including Associated Uncertainties for Operational Flood Risk Management written by Punit Kumar Bhola and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Flood Forecasting written by Thomas E. Adams and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2016-04-04 with total page 485 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective describes flood forecast systems and operations as they currently exist at national and regional centers around the globe, focusing on the technical aspects of flood forecast systems. This book includes the details of data flow, what data is used, quality control, the hydrologic and hydraulic models used, and the unique problems of each country or system, such as glacial dam failures, ice jams, sparse data, and ephemeral streams and rivers. Each chapter describes the system, including details about its strengths and weaknesses, and covers lessons learned. This helpful resource facilitates sharing knowledge that will lead to improvements of existing systems and provides a valuable reference to those wishing to develop new forecast systems by drawing on best practices. Covers global systems allowing readers to see a worldwide perspective with different approaches used by existing flood forecast systems Provides historical coverage allowing readers to understand why forecast systems have developed as they have and to see how specific systems have dealt with common problems encountered Presents a vision of what appears to be the future of hydrologic forecasting and difficulties facing hydrologic forecasting Provides a helpful resource to facilitate improvements to existing systems based on a best practices approach
Download or read book Hydrosystems Engineering and Management written by Larry W. Mays and published by McGraw-Hill Companies. This book was released on 1992 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text is intended for a senior/graduate level course in hydrosystems. Students who take this course must have previously taken a course in hydrology and hydraulics. The term Hydraulics can also be used to describe different types of water projects. The scope of this text covers both of these definitions. The major focus of the text is to bring together the use of mathematical modelling with the use of hydrosystems for the analysis, design, operation and managment of water projects. To accomplish this goal, the authors present the basic principles of optimization, probability, and risk analysis and then apply these principles to the areas of water supply management and water excess management.
Download or read book A Review of Real time Flood Forecasting Methods written by Ratnasingham Srikanthan and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Linear Catchment Model for Real Time Flood Forecasting written by D. S. Sinclair and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Rainfall runoff Modelling In Gauged And Ungauged Catchments written by Thorsten Wagener and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2004-09-09 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important monograph is based on the results of a study on the identification of conceptual lumped rainfall-runoff models for gauged and ungauged catchments. The task of model identification remains difficult despite decades of research. A detailed problem analysis and an extensive review form the basis for the development of a Matlab® modelling toolkit consisting of two components: a Rainfall-Runoff Modelling Toolbox (RRMT) and a Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox (MCAT). These are subsequently applied to study the tasks of model identification and evaluation. A novel dynamic identifiability approach has been developed for the gauged catchment case. The theory underlying the application of rainfall-runoff models for predictions in ungauged catchments is studied, problems are highlighted and promising ways to move forward are investigated. Modelling frameworks for both gauged and ungauged cases are developed. This book presents the first extensive treatment of rainfall-runoff model identification in gauged and ungauged catchments.
Download or read book Flood Issues in Contemporary Water Management written by J. Marsalek and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 431 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1997 disastrous flooding running through the Czech Republic, Poland, Germany took the lives of a great number of people and caused economic damage estimated in tens of billions of dollars. Flooding of the Yangtze river in 1998 killed more than 3000 people, dislocated 230 million souls, and caused direct damage of more than $ 45 billion. Both the general public and the experts are asking what we can learn from these recent events to reduce loss of life and flood damage. The 1997 floods were dealt with by experts from the Czech Republic, Poland and Germany, who presented timely reports on combatting floods, both success stories and shortcomings. This experience is further extended by reports from experts drawn from 13 other countries, developing a broad overview of flood risk management, covering the ecosystem approach to flood management, including socioeconomic issues, flood impacts on water quality, human health, and natural ecosystems.
Download or read book Improving Flood Forecasting Using Conditional Bias aware Assimilation of Streamflow Observations and Dynamic Assessment of Flow dependent Information Content written by Haojing Shen and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accurate forecasting of floods is a long-standing challenge in hydrology and water management. Data assimilation (DA) is a popular technique used to improve forecast accuracy by updating the model states in real time using the uncertainty-quantified actual and model-simulated observations. A particular challenge in DA concerns the ability to improve the prediction of hydrologic extremes, such as floods, which have particularly large impacts on society. Almost all DA methods used today are based on least squares minimization. As such, they are subject to conditional bias (CB) in the presence of observational uncertainties which often leads to under- and over-prediction of the predict and over the upper and lower tails, respectively. To address the adverse impact of CB in DA, conditional bias penalized Kalman filter (CBPKF) and conditional bias penalized ensemble Kalman filter (CBEnKF) have recently been proposed which minimize a weighted sum of the error variance and expectation of the CB squared. Whereas CBPKF and CBEnKF significantly improve the accuracy of the estimates over the tails, they deteriorate performance near the median due to the added penalty. To address the above, this work introduces CB-aware DA, which adaptively weights the CB penalty term in real time, and assesses the flow-dependent information content in observation and model prediction using the degrees of freedom for signal (DFS), which serves as a skill score for information fusion. CB-aware DA is then comparatively evaluated with ensemble Kalman filter in which the marginal information content of observations and its flow dependence are assessed given the hydrologic model used. The findings indicate that CB-aware DA with information content analysis offers an objective framework for improving DA performance for prediction of extremes and dynamically balancing the predictive skill of hydrologic models, quality and frequency of hydrologic observations, and scheduling of DA cycles for improving operational flood forecasting cost-effectively.
