Download or read book Incorporating the Influence of Latent Modal Preferences in Travel Demand Models written by Akshay Vij and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting the Impact of Major Technological and Infrastructural Changes on Travel Demand written by Feras El Zarwi and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The transportation system is undergoing major technological and infrastructural changes, such as the introduction of autonomous vehicles, high speed rail, carsharing, ridesharing, flying cars, drones, and other app-driven on-demand services. While the changes are imminent, the impact on travel behavior is uncertain, as is the role of policy in shaping the future. Literature shows that even under the most optimistic scenarios, society's environmental goals cannot be met by technology, operations, and energy system improvements only - behavior change is needed. Behavior change does not occur instantaneously, but is rather a gradual process that requires years and even generations to yield the desired outcomes. That is why we need to nudge and guide trends of travel behavior over time in this era of transformative mobility. We should focus on influencing long-range trends of travel behavior to be more sustainable and multimodal via effective policies and investment strategies. Hence, there is a need for developing policy analysis tools that focus on modeling the evolution of trends of travel behavior in response to upcoming transportation services and technologies. Over time, travel choices, attitudes, and social norms will result in changes in lifestyles and travel behavior. That is why understanding dynamic changes of lifestyles and behavior in this era of transformative mobility is central to modeling and influencing trends of travel behavior. Modeling behavioral dynamics and trends is key to assessing how policies and investment strategies can transform cities to provide a higher level of connectivity, attain significant reductions in congestion levels, encourage multimodality, improve economic and environmental health, and ensure equity. This dissertation focuses on addressing limitations of activity-based travel demand models in capturing and predicting trends of travel behavior. Activity-based travel demand models are the commonly-used approach by metropolitan planning agencies to predict 20-30 year forecasts. These include traffic volumes, transit ridership, biking and walking market shares that are the result of large scale transportation investments and policy decisions. Currently, travel demand models are not equipped with a framework that predicts long-range trends in travel behavior for two main reasons. First, they do not entail a mechanism that projects membership and market share of new modes of transport into the future (Uber, autonomous vehicles, carsharing services, etc). Second, they lack a dynamic framework that could enable them to model and forecast changes in lifestyles and transport modality styles. Modeling the evolution and dynamic changes of behavior, modality styles and lifestyles in response to infrastructural and technological investments is key to understanding and predicting trends of travel behavior, car ownership levels, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and travel mode choice. Hence, we need to integrate a methodological framework into current travel demand models to better understand and predict the impact of upcoming transportation services and technologies, which will be prevalent in 20-30 years. The objectives of this dissertation are to model the dynamics of lifestyles and travel behavior through: " Developing a disaggregate, dynamic discrete choice framework that models and predicts long-range trends of travel behavior, and accounts for upcoming technological and infrastructural changes." Testing the proposed framework to assess its methodological flexibility and robustness." Empirically highlighting the value of the framework to transportation policy and practice. The proposed disaggregate, dynamic discrete choice framework in this dissertation addresses two key limitations of existing travel demand models, and in particular: (1) dynamic, disaggregate models of technology and service adoption, and (2) models that capture how lifestyles, preferences and transport modality styles evolve dynamically over time. This dissertation brings together theories and techniques from econometrics (discrete choice analysis), machine learning (hidden Markov models), statistical learning (Expectation Maximization algorithm), and the technology diffusion literature (adoption styles). Throughout this dissertation we develop, estimate, apply and test the building blocks of the proposed disaggregate, dynamic discrete choice framework. The two key developed components of the framework are defined below. First, a discrete choice framework for modeling and forecasting the adoption and diffusion of new transportation services. A disaggregate technology adoption model was developed since models of this type can: (1) be integrated with current activity-based travel demand models; and (2) account for the spatial/network effect of the new technology to understand and quantify how the size of the network, governed by the new technology, influences the adoption behavior. We build on the formulation of discrete mixture models and specifically dynamic latent class choice models, which were integrated with a network effect model. We employed a confirmatory approach to estimate our latent class choice model based on findings from the technology diffusion literature that focus on defining distinct types of adopters such as innovator/early adopters and imitators. Latent class choice models allow for heterogeneity in the utility of adoption for the various market segments i.e. innovators/early adopters, imitators and non-adopters. We make use of revealed preference (RP) time series data from a one-way carsharing system in a major city in the United States to estimate model parameters. The data entails a complete set of member enrollment for the carsharing service for a time period of 2.5 years after being launched. Consistent with the technology diffusion literature, our model identifies three latent classes whose utility of adoption have a well-defined set of preferences that are statistically significant and behaviorally consistent. The technology adoption model predicts the probability that a certain individual will adopt the service at a certain time period, and is explained by social influences, network effect, socio-demographics and level-of-service attributes. Finally, the model was calibrated and then used to forecast adoption of the carsharing system for potential investment strategy scenarios. A couple of takeaways from the adoption forecasts were: (1) highest expected increase in the monthly number of adopters arises by establishing a relationship with a major technology firm and placing a new station/pod for the carsharing system outside that technology firm; and (2) no significant difference in the expected number of monthly adopters for the downtown region will exist between having a station or on-street parking. The second component in the proposed framework entails modeling and forecasting the evolution of preferences, lifestyles and transport modality styles over time. Literature suggests that preferences, as denoted by taste parameters and consideration sets in the context of utility-maximizing behavior, may evolve over time in response to changes in demographic and situational variables, psychological, sociological and biological constructs, and available alternatives and their attributes. However, existing representations typically overlook the influence of past experiences on present preferences. This study develops, applies and tests a hidden Markov model with a discrete choice kernel to model and forecast the evolution of individual preferences and behaviors over long-range forecasting horizons. The hidden states denote different preferences, i.e. modes considered in the choice set and sensitivity to level-of-service attributes. The evolutionary path of those hidden states (preference states) is hypothesized to be a first-order Markov process such that an individual's preferences during a particular time period are dependent on their preferences during the previous time period. The framework is applied to study the evolution of travel mode preferences, or modality styles, over time, in response to a major change in the public transportation system. We use longitudinal travel diary from Santiago, Chile. The dataset consists of four one-week pseudo travel diaries collected before and after the introduction of Transantiago, which was a complete redesign of the public transportation system in the city. Our model identifies four modality styles in the population, labeled as follows: drivers, bus users, bus-metro users, and auto-metro users. The modality styles differ in terms of the travel modes that they consider and their sensitivity to level-of-service attributes (travel time, travel cost, etc.). At the population level, there are significant shifts in the distribution of individuals across modality styles before and after the change in the system, but the distribution is relatively stable in the periods after the change. In general, the proportion of drivers, auto-metro users, and bus-metro users has increased, and the proportion of bus users has decreased. At the individual level, habit formation is found to impact transition probabilities across all modality styles; individuals are more likely to stay in the same modality style over successive time periods than transition to a different modality style. Finally, a comparison between the proposed dynamic framework and comparable static frameworks reveals differences in aggregate forecasts for different policy scenarios, demonstrating the value of the proposed framework for both individual and population-level policy analysis. The aforementioned methodological frameworks comprise complex model formulation. This however comes at a cost in terms.

Download or read book International Encyclopedia of Transportation written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2021-05-13 with total page 4418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an increasingly globalised world, despite reductions in costs and time, transportation has become even more important as a facilitator of economic and human interaction; this is reflected in technical advances in transportation systems, increasing interest in how transportation interacts with society and the need to provide novel approaches to understanding its impacts. This has become particularly acute with the impact that Covid-19 has had on transportation across the world, at local, national and international levels. Encyclopedia of Transportation, Seven Volume Set - containing almost 600 articles - brings a cross-cutting and integrated approach to all aspects of transportation from a variety of interdisciplinary fields including engineering, operations research, economics, geography and sociology in order to understand the changes taking place. Emphasising the interaction between these different aspects of research, it offers new solutions to modern-day problems related to transportation. Each of its nine sections is based around familiar themes, but brings together the views of experts from different disciplinary perspectives. Each section is edited by a subject expert who has commissioned articles from a range of authors representing different disciplines, different parts of the world and different social perspectives. The nine sections are structured around the following themes: Transport Modes; Freight Transport and Logistics; Transport Safety and Security; Transport Economics; Traffic Management; Transport Modelling and Data Management; Transport Policy and Planning; Transport Psychology; Sustainability and Health Issues in Transportation. Some articles provide a technical introduction to a topic whilst others provide a bridge between topics or a more future-oriented view of new research areas or challenges. The end result is a reference work that offers researchers and practitioners new approaches, new ways of thinking and novel solutions to problems. All-encompassing and expertly authored, this outstanding reference work will be essential reading for all students and researchers interested in transportation and its global impact in what is a very uncertain world. Provides a forward looking and integrated approach to transportation Updated with future technological impacts, such as self-driving vehicles, cyber-physical systems and big data analytics Includes comprehensive coverage Presents a worldwide approach, including sets of comparative studies and applications

Download or read book Behavioral Travel demand Models written by Peter R. Stopher and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Disaggregate Travel Demand Model written by Martin Gomm Richards and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Behavioral Travel Demand Model Incorporating Choice Constraints written by Wilfred W. Recker and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Handbook on Transport and Land Use written by João de Abreu e Silva and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2023-06-01 with total page 437 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Synthesizing current understandings on the relationship between transport and land use, this timely Handbook proposes an agenda for research and practice that leads toward more human-centered communities within an increasingly urbanized world facing rapid technological change. Chapters explore the role of institutional policies and informal cultural contexts in influencing transport and land use systems, before examining the impacts of transportation and land use decisions across multiple areas, including equity, public health, climate, environment, and lifestyle preferences.

Download or read book Discrete Choice Analysis written by Moshe Ben-Akiva and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2018-04-20 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discrete Choice Analysis presents these results in such a way that they are fully accessible to the range of students and professionals who are involved in modelling demand and consumer behavior in general or specifically in transportation - whether from the point of view of the design of transit systems, urban and transport economics, public policy, operations research, or systems management and planning. The methods of discrete choice analysis and their applications in the modelling of transportation systems constitute a comparatively new field that has largely evolved over the past 15 years. Since its inception, however, the field has developed rapidly, and this is the first text and reference work to cover the material systematically, bringing together the scattered and often inaccessible results for graduate students and professionals. Discrete Choice Analysis presents these results in such a way that they are fully accessible to the range of students and professionals who are involved in modelling demand and consumer behavior in general or specifically in transportation - whether from the point of view of the design of transit systems, urban and transport economics, public policy, operations research, or systems management and planning. The introductory chapter presents the background of discrete choice analysis and context of transportation demand forecasting. Subsequent chapters cover, among other topics, the theories of individual choice behavior, binary and multinomial choice models, aggregate forecasting techniques, estimation methods, tests used in the process of model development, sampling theory, the nested-logit model, and systems of models. Discrete Choice Analysis is ninth in the MIT Press Series in Transportation Studies, edited by Marvin Manheim.

Download or read book Handbook of Travel Behaviour written by Dimitris Potoglou and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2024-04-12 with total page 537 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This insightful Handbook offers a comprehensive and diverse understanding of the determinants of travel behaviour, looking at the ways in which it can be better understood, modelled and forecasted. Dimitris Potoglou and Justin Spinney bring together an international range of esteemed academics who explore the origins of the field, research analysis methods, environmental considerations, and social factors. This title contains one or more Open Access chapters.

Download or read book Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling Papers written by and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 2008 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 31 individual authored papers from the breakout sessions are contained in Volume 2"--Pub. desc.

Download or read book Access written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Behavioural Travel Modelling written by David A. Hensher and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 872 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1979, this study deals on a fully comprehensive level with both passenger and freight travel. The 40 chapters deal with an extensive range of related topics, including equilibrium modelling, theoretical and conceptual developments in demand modelling, goods movement and forecasting and policy. It outlines approaches to understanding travel behaviour, which move beyond the individual choice theory towards a broader consideration of activities.

Download or read book Travel Behaviour Research in an Evolving World written by Ram M. Pendyala and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2012-01-20 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains select keynote and resource papers, as well as workshop reports, from the 12th International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research that was organized by the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research (IATBR) in Jaipur, India during December 13-18, 2009.

Download or read book Handbook of Choice Modelling written by Stephane Hess and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2024-06-05 with total page 797 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thoroughly revised second edition Handbook provides an authoritative and in-depth overview of choice modelling, covering essential topics range from data collection through model specification and estimation to analysis and use of results. It aptly emphasises the broad relevance of choice modelling when applied to a multitude of fields, including but not limited to transport, marketing, health and environmental economics.

Download or read book Activity based Travel Demand Models written by Joe Castiglione (Writer on transportation) and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: TRB's second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Report S2-C46-RR-1: Activity-Based Travel Demand Models: A Primer explores ways to inform policymakers' decisions about developing and using activity-based travel demand models to better understand how people plan and schedule their daily travel. The document is composed of two parts. The first part provides an overview of activity-based model development and application. The second part discusses issues in linking activity-based models to dynamic network assignment models.

Download or read book Modeling Framework for Incorporating External Trips in Activity based Travel Demand Models written by Syed Fazal Abbas Baqueri and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Travel Demand Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: