Download or read book Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts written by Pär Österholm and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Within a decision-making group, such as a central bank's monetary-policy committee, group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of opinion can be thought of as reflecting differing sets of judgement. This paper suggests modelling each agent's judgement as one scenario in a macroeconomic model. Each judgement set has a specific dynamic impact on the system and, accordingly, a particular predictive density - or fan chart - associated with it. A weighted linear combination of the predictive densities yields a final predictive density that reflects the uncertainty perceived by the agents generating the forecast.

Download or read book Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts written by Pär Österholm and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Within a decision-making group, such as the monetary-policy committee of a central bank, group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of opinion can be thought of as reflecting differing sets of judgement. This paper suggests modelling each agent's judgement as one scenario in a macroeconomic model. Each judgement set has a specific dynamic impact on the system, and accordingly, a particular predictive density - or fan chart - associated with it. A weighted linear combination of the predictive densities yields a final predictive density that correctly reflects the uncertainty perceived by the agents generating the forecast. In a model-based environment, this framework allows judgement to be incorporated into fan charts in a formalised manner.

Download or read book Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics written by Terence C. Mills and published by Springer. This book was released on 2009-06-25 with total page 1406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following theseminal Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics: Volume I , this second volume brings together the finestacademicsworking in econometrics today andexploresapplied econometrics, containing contributions onsubjects includinggrowth/development econometrics and applied econometrics and computing.

Download or read book Who s Driving Whom Analyzing External and Intra Regional Linkages in the Americas written by Mr.Jeronimo Zettelmeyer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-10-09 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a global economy beset by concerns over a growth recession, financial volatility, and rising inflation, countries in the Western Hemisphere have been among the few bright spots in recent years. This has not come as a surprise to those following the significant progress achieved by many countries in recent years, both in macroeconomic management and on the structural and institutional front. Hence, there can be little doubt, as this book argues, that economic and financial linkages between Latin America, the United States, and other important regions of the world economy have undergone profound change.

Download or read book Incorporating Vintage Differences and Forecasts Into Markov Switching Models written by Jeremy Nalewaik and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2016 written by World Bank Group and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-07-13 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth prospects have deteriorated in 2016. Emerging market and developing economies are facing increased external headwinds, including softer growth in advanced economies. Commodity exporters are struggling with particularly challenging conditions, while commodity importers are thus far showing greater resilience. Global growth is expected to gradually accelerate in 2017-18 but risks to the outlook are increasingly more pronounced. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes two Special Focus essays of critical importance for emerging and developing economies: an analysis of the buildup of private debt in emerging and frontier markets and a quantitative study of uncertainties surrounding global growth. This year marks the 25th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that has, since its inception in 1991, examined international economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies. It has also included analytical essays on a wide range of topical macroeconomic, financial, and structural policy challenges faced by these economies. It is published on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges, while the June edition contains shorter analytical essays.

Download or read book Economic Forecasting and Policy written by N. Carnot and published by Springer. This book was released on 2011-07-26 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

Download or read book An Efficiency Perspective on the Gains from Mergers and Asset Purchases written by Sugata Ray and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Closer Look at the Sensitivity Puzzle written by Meredith Beechey and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Combining Forecasts from Nested Models written by Todd E. Clark and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by the common finding that linear autoregressive models forecast better than models that incorporate additional information, this paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on the effectiveness of combining forecasts from nested models. In our analytics, the unrestricted model is true, but as the sample size grows, the DGP converges to the restricted model. This approach captures the practical reality that the predictive content of variables of interest is often low. We derive MSE-minimizing weights for combining the restricted and unrestricted forecasts. In the Monte Carlo and empirical analysis, we compare the effectiveness of our combination approach against related alternatives, such as Bayesian estimation.

Download or read book Linear Cointegration of Nonlinear Time Series with an Application to Interest Rate Dynamics written by Barry E. Jones and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Averaging Forecasts from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities written by Todd E. Clark and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A body of recent work suggests commonly-used VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. These methods include using different approaches to lag selection, different observation windows for estimation, (over-) differencing, intercept correction, stochastically time-varying parameters, break dating, discounted least squares, Bayesian shrinkage, and detrending of inflation and interest rates. Although each individual method could be useful, the uncertainty inherent in any single representation of instability could mean that combining forecasts from the entire range of VAR estimates will further improve forecast accuracy. Focusing on models of U.S. output, prices, and interest rates, this paper examines the effectiveness of combination in improving VAR forecasts made with real-time data. The combinations include simple averages, medians, trimmed means, and a number of weighted combinations, based on: Bates-Granger regressions, factor model estimates, regressions involving just forecast quartiles, Bayesian model averaging, and predictive least squares-based weighting. Our goal is to identify those approaches that, in real time, yield the most accurate forecasts of these variables. We use forecasts from simple univariate time series models and the Survey of Professional Forecasters as benchmarks.

Download or read book Natural Rate Measures in an Estimated DSGE Model of the U S Economy written by Rochelle Mary Edge and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Anchoring Bias in Consensus Forecasts and Its Effect on Market Prices written by Sean D. Campbell and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Effects of Past Entry Market Consolidation and Expansion by Incumbents on the Probability of Entry written by Robert M. Adams and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Welfare maximizing Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty written by Rochelle Mary Edge and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters. Uncertainty about parameters describing preferences and technology implies not only uncertainty about the dynamics of the economy. It also implies uncertainty about the model's utility-based welfare criterion and about the economy's natural rate measures of interest and output. We analyze the characteristics and performance of alternative monetary policy rules given the estimated uncertainty regarding parameter estimates. We find that the natural rates of interest and output are imprecisely estimated. We then show that, relative to the case of known parameters, optimal policy under parameter uncertainty responds less to natural-rate terms and more to other variables, such as price and wage inflation and measures of tightness or slack that do not depend on natural rates.

Download or read book Forecasting with Small Macroeconomic VARs in the Presence of Instabilities written by Todd E. Clark and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Small-scale VARs have come to be widely used in macroeconomics, for purposes ranging from forecasting output, prices, and interest rates to modeling expectations formation in theoretical models. However, a body of recent work suggests such VAR models may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. These methods include using different approaches to lag selection, observation windows for estimation, (over-) differencing, intercept correction, stochastically time--varying parameters, break dating, discounted least squares, Bayesian shrinkage, detrending of inflation and interest rates, and model averaging. Focusing on simple models of U.S. output, prices, and interest rates, this paper compares the effectiveness of such methods. Our goal is to identify those approaches that, in real time, yield the most accurate forecasts of these variables. We use forecasts from simple univariate time series models, the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook as benchmarks