Download or read book Improving Short term Wind Power Forecasting Through Measurements and Modeling of the Tehachapi Wind Resource Area written by Aubryn Cooperman and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Windsense Project written by Rob Kamisky and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Grid and Market Integration of Large Scale Wind Farms Using Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Technical and Energy Economic Aspects written by Ümit Cali and published by kassel university press GmbH. This book was released on 2011 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Physical Approach to Short Term Wind Power Prediction written by Matthias Lange and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-01-16 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effective integration of wind energy into the overall electricity supply is a technical and economical challenge because the availability of wind power is determined by fluctuating meteorological conditions. This book offers an approach to the ultimate goal of the short-term prediction of the power output of winds farms. Starting from basic aspects of atmospheric fluid dynamics, the authors discuss the structure of winds fields, the available forecast systems and the handling of the intrinsic, weather-dependent uncertainties in the regional prediction of the power generated by wind turbines. This book addresses scientists and engineers working in wind energy related R and D and industry, as well as graduate students and nonspecialists researchers in the fields of atmospheric physics and meteorology.

Download or read book Wind Resource Assessment and Micro siting written by Matthew Huaiquan Zhang and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-05-18 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covers all the key areas of wind resource assessment technologies from an engineer’s perspective Focuses on wind analysis for wind plant siting, design and analysis Addresses all aspects from atmospheric boundary layer characteristics, to wind resource measurement systems, uncertainties in measurements, computations and analyses, to plant performance Covers the basics of atmospheric science through to turbine siting, turbine responses, and to environmental impacts Contents can be used for research purposes as well as a go-to reference guide, written from the perspective of a hands-on engineer Topic is of ongoing major international interest for its economic and environmental benefits

Download or read book Statistical Wind Power Forecasting for U S Wind Farms written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Spatio Temporal Data Analytics for Wind Energy Integration written by Lei Yang and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-11-14 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This SpringerBrief presents spatio-temporal data analytics for wind energy integration using stochastic modeling and optimization methods. It explores techniques for efficiently integrating renewable energy generation into bulk power grids. The operational challenges of wind, and its variability are carefully examined. A spatio-temporal analysis approach enables the authors to develop Markov-chain-based short-term forecasts of wind farm power generation. To deal with the wind ramp dynamics, a support vector machine enhanced Markov model is introduced. The stochastic optimization of economic dispatch (ED) and interruptible load management are investigated as well. Spatio-Temporal Data Analytics for Wind Energy Integration is valuable for researchers and professionals working towards renewable energy integration. Advanced-level students studying electrical, computer and energy engineering should also find the content useful.

Download or read book Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting written by André Gensler and published by kassel university press GmbH. This book was released on 2019-01-16 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis describes performance measures and ensemble architectures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts using the application example of wind power forecasting and proposes a novel scheme for the situation-dependent aggregation of forecasting models. For performance measures, error scores for deterministic as well as probabilistic forecasts are compared, and their characteristics are shown in detail. For the evaluation of deterministic forecasts, a categorization by basic error measure and normalization technique is introduced that simplifies the process of choosing an appropriate error measure for certain forecasting tasks. Furthermore, a scheme for the common evaluation of different forms of probabilistic forecasts is proposed. Based on the analysis of the error scores, a novel hierarchical aggregation technique for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting models is proposed that dynamically weights individual forecasts using multiple weighting factors such as weather situation and lead time dependent weighting. In the experimental evaluation it is shown that the forecasting quality of the proposed technique is able to outperform other state of the art forecasting models and ensembles.

Download or read book Guidelines for Wind Resource Assessment written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2014-05-01 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wind Resource Assessment (WRA) is a pivotal step in the development phase because it determines the bankability of wind projects. The Asian Development Bank’s Quantum Leap in Wind Power Development in Asia and the Pacific project has developed WRA guidelines that encapsulate best practices for new and emerging wind energy markets with the goal of accelerating wind energy development. The guidelines address challenges to policy support for WRA, wind measurement, wind data processing, wind flow modeling, and estimation of losses and uncertainty. These are challenges faced in these markets by policy makers, implementation agencies, utilities, developers, and financiers.

Download or read book Development of an Offshore Specific Wind Power Forecasting System written by Melih Kurt and published by kassel university press GmbH. This book was released on 2017-01-01 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study explains the data preparation processes, plausibility checking of meteorological parameters, correction of met-mast wind speed, and also the determination of the nominal power of a wind farm using met-mast measurements. The wind speed correction of met-mast FINO1 is evaluated from the perspective of power produced by alpha ventus by using uncorrected and corrected measurements from this met-mast. Afterwards this data is used for the determination of nominal power for alpha ventus.

Download or read book Short term Wind Power Prediction written by Fatemeh Marzbani and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Environmental considerations in addition to energy crises have forced many countries to consider alternative energy sources; renewable energies are known as the best alternatives. Among renewable energies, wind power is the most promising energy source. The chaotic nature of the wind is a major challenge against the integration of wind power into grids. Integration of wind power results in several problems due to the fluctuations inherent in wind power, such as power quality, stability, and dispatch issues. The prediction accuracy of wind power affects its integration into power systems. Several wind power forecasting techniques have been proposed and developed. However, not all of them are able to provide sufficient accuracy. The main contribution of this thesis is to provide accurate short-term wind power prediction. A simple, yet effective adaptiveparameter regression model is developed. Specifically, the proposed approach uses a window of previous observations to obtain the model parameters that minimizes the prediction error. Regression-based models are affected by measurement errors. Thus, other models with the capability of moderating the impact of measurement errors are needed. In order to cope with such errors, two hybrid grey-based short-term wind power prediction techniques are proposed: GM(1,1)-ARMA and GM(1,1)-NARnet. These techniques are combined with ARMA models and Nonlinear Auto Regressive Neural Network (NARnet) models, respectively. GM(1,1)-ARMA and GM(1,1)-NARnet are applied to wind power data and the obtained results are compared with those obtained from ARMA, the traditional grey model, as well as the persistent model. The efficiency of both of the proposed techniques is confirmed. In contrast to the GM(1,1)-ARMA model, the GM(1,1)-NARnet model utilizes the nonlinear components of wind power during the forecasting procedure which results in more accurate prediction."--Abstract.

Download or read book Handbook of Wind Resource Assessment written by Simon Watson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2023-05-08 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: HANDBOOK OF WIND RESOURCE ASSESSMENT Useful reference text underpinning the theory behind wind resource assessment along with its practical application Handbook of Wind Resource Assessment provides a comprehensive description of the background theory, methods, models, applications, and analysis of the discipline of wind resource assessment, covering topics such as climate variability, measurement, wind distributions, numerical modeling, statistical modeling, reanalysis datasets, applications in different environments (onshore and offshore), wind atlases, and future climate. The text provides an up-to-date assessment of the tools available for wind resource assessment and their application in different environments. It also summarizes our present understanding of the wind climate and its variability, with a particular focus on its relevance to wind resource assessment. Written by a highly qualified professional in the fields of wind resource assessment, wind turbine condition monitoring, and wind turbine wake modeling, sample topics included in Handbook of Wind Resource Assessment are as follows: Climate variability, covering temporal scales of variation, power spectrum, short term variation and turbulence, the spectral gap, and long-term variation Measurement, covering history of wind speed measurement, types of measurement, terrestrial measurements, anemometers, wind vanes, lidars, sodars and remote sensing Distributions, covering synoptic scale wind distributions, turbulent scale distributions, contrast between mean and extreme values, and extreme value statistics Physical modeling, covering spatial scales of variability, the governing equations, models of varying complexity, mass consistent models, linearized models and semi-empirical models Statistical modeling, covering the use of measure-correlate-predict (MCP), wind indices and spatial interpolation Handbook of Wind Resource Assessment serves as a comprehensive text that brings together the different aspects of wind resource assessment in one place. It is an essential resource for anyone who wishes to understand the underlying science, models, or applications of wind resources, including postgraduates, academics, and wind resource professionals.

Download or read book Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation written by Xinxin Zhu and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system operation in terms of the efficiency of the system. The goal of this dissertation is to develop advanced statistical wind speed predictive models to reduce the uncertainties in wind, especially the short-term future wind speed. Moreover, a criterion is proposed to evaluate the performance of models. Cost reduction in power system operation, as proposed, is more realistic than prevalent criteria, such as, root mean square error (RMSE) and absolute mean error (MAE). Two advanced space-time statistical models are introduced for short-term wind speed forecasting. One is a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed fore-casting model, which allows the forecast regimes to vary according to the dominant wind direction and seasons. Thus, it avoids a subjective choice of regimes. The other one is a novel model that incorporates a new variable, geostrophic wind, which has strong influence on the surface wind, into one of the advanced space-time statistical forecasting models. This model is motivated by the lack of improvement in forecast accuracy when using air pressure and temperature directly. Using geostrophic wind in the model is not only critical, it also has a meaningful geophysical interpretation. The importance of model evaluation is emphasized in the dissertation as well. Rather than using RMSE or MAE, the performance of both wind forecasting models mentioned above are assessed by economic benefits with real wind farm data from Pacific Northwest of the U.S and West Texas. Wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models, and the power system operation cost is used as a loss measure for the performance of the forecasting models. From another perspective, the new criterion leads to cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation with potential economic benefits arising from the system-wide generation of cost savings and ancillary services cost savings. As an illustration, the integrated forecasts and economic dispatch framework are applied to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) equivalent 24- bus system. Compared with persistence and autoregressive models, the first model suggests that cost savings from integration of wind power could be on the scale of tens of millions of dollars. For the second model, numerical simulations suggest that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6.6% using look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with dispatch with persistent wind forecast model. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/151248

Download or read book Integrated Energy Policy Report written by California Energy Commission. Integrated Energy Policy Report Committee and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Improving Wind Power Predictions on Very Short term Scales by Including Wind Speed Observations in the Power Forecast written by Moritz Lochmann and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Development and Testing of Improved Statistical Wind Power Forecasting Methods written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

Download or read book Wind Power Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Here, this paper presents the new International Energy Agency Wind Task 36 on Forecasting, and invites to collaborate within the group. Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Forecasting for Wind Energy tries to organise international collaboration, among national meteorological centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, MetOffice, met.no, DMI, ...), operational forecaster and forecast users. The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions. As first results, an overview of current issues for research in short-term forecasting of wind power is presented.