Download or read book Improving Probabilistic Hazard Forecasts in Volcanic Fields written by Melody Gwyneth Runge and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasts of future volcanic activity are frequently required for volcanic fields as their relatively low eruption rates and fertile soils draw human populations to live in close proximity to these potentially hazardous regions. Harrat Rahat in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is one of these volcanic fields, situated immediately south east of the city of Al-Madinah (population 1.5 million). Recent eruptions (641 AD, 1256 AD) and a seismic swarm (1999 AD) motivated this research to model past and potential volcanic activity within Harrat Rahat. The complexity of volcanic systems, the difficulty of establishing precise event records, and ignorance of the specific subsurface processes driving volcanic eruptions render deterministic approaches currently, and potentially never, unattainable. Thus, the majority of existing approaches to hazard forecasting are probabilistic, in which patterns are fitted to previous activity and then extrapolated into the future. To forecast activity in volcanic systems, some simplification is required to attempt to model their behaviour. These include the assumptions of independent spatial and temporal behaviour, and that each eruption centre is a separate eruption in both time and space. However, the choice of simplification approach has the potential to render incorrect, rather than just uncertain, results. Novel quantitative methods were developed to address three major complexities noted within volcanic fields: (1) multiple-vent eruptions, (2) hidden eruptive centres, and (3) the relationship of volcanism to geological, geophysical, and geographical ancillary data. Sensitivity analyses were then completed for two major subjective decisions common during volcanic field hazard forecasting: (1) the definition of a volcanic field boundary, and (2) selection of a pattern approximation method. Application of these new techniques to Harrat Rahat resulted in a conservative forecast for future eruption activity. This forecast incorporates the complex, multi-dimensional eruptions noted within Harrat Rahat by collapsing the 968 identified vents into 752 events and is based on an anisotropic kernel spatial smoothing method with an expanding volcanic field boundary. However, substantial uncertainties are attached to this forecast due predominantly to insufficient age data for the field. Ancillary data analysis also revealed structural controls on the volcanism across the Arabian Shield suggesting that future work should be focussed both on age data collection and geophysical methods to reveal crustal structure. This work also raises questions concerning a large number of existing practices in volcanic hazard forecasting, especially with regards to objective decision-making and assumption validation. An open, defensible procedure is suggested as a first step towards a consolidated process for the development of hazard forecasts.
Download or read book Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose Unrest Precursors and Timing written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-07-24 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptionsâ€"where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences. Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.
Download or read book Volcanic Unrest written by Joachim Gottsmann and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-18 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book summarizes the findings of the VUELCO project, a multi-disciplinary and cross-boundary research funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program. It comprises four broad topics: 1. The global significance of volcanic unrest 2. Geophysical and geochemical fingerprints of unrest and precursory activity 3. Magma dynamics leading to unrest phenomena 4. Bridging the gap between science and decision-making Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon. The fact that unrest may, or may not lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term volcanic hazard and risk assessment. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the understanding of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. When a volcano evolves from dormancy into a phase of unrest, important scientific, political and social questions need to be addressed. This book is aimed at graduate students, researchers of volcanic phenomena, professionals in volcanic hazard and risk assessment, observatory personnel, as well as emergency managers who wish to learn about the complex nature of volcanic unrest and how to utilize new findings to deal with unrest phenomena at scientific and emergency managing levels. This book is open access under a CC BY license.
Download or read book Volcanic Hazards Risks and Disasters written by Paolo Papale and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-10-29 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters provides you with the latest scientific developments in volcano and volcanic research, including causality, impacts, preparedness, risk analysis, planning, response, recovery, and the economics of loss and remediation. It takes a geoscientific approach to the topic while integrating the social and economic issues related to volcanoes and volcanic hazards and disasters. Throughout the book case studies are presented of historically relevant volcanic and seismic hazards and disasters as well as recent catastrophes, such as Chile’s Puyehue volcano eruption in June 2011. Puts the expertise of top volcanologists, seismologists, geologists, and geophysicists selected by a world-renowned editorial board at your fingertips Presents you with the latest research—including case studies of prominent volcanoes and volcanic hazards and disasters—on causality, economic impacts, fatality rates, and earthquake preparedness and mitigation Numerous tables, maps, diagrams, illustrations, photographs, and video captures of hazardous processes support you in grasping key concepts
Download or read book Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk written by Susan C. Loughlin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first comprehensive assessment of global volcanic hazards and risk, with detailed regional profiles, for the disaster risk reduction community. Also available as Open Access.
Download or read book Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards Risks and Disasters written by Paolo Papale and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2020-09-29 with total page 710 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters expands and complements the subject and themes in Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters. Together, the two volumes represent an exhaustive compendium on volcanic hazards, risks, and disasters. Volume two presents a comprehensive picture of the volcano dynamics relevant for volcanic hazard forecasts. It also includes case studies of the associated risks and aspects like operational volcano observatory responses, communication before and across volcanic crises, emergency planning, social science aspects, and resilience from volcanic disasters. Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters takes a geoscientific approach to the topic while integrating the social and economic issues related to volcanoes and volcanic hazards and disasters. Features the expertise of top volcanologists, seismologists, geologists, and geophysicists Presents the latest research - including case studies of prominent volcanoes and volcanic hazards and disasters - on causality, economic and social impacts, and preparedness and mitigation Includes numerous tables, maps, diagrams, illustrations, and photographs to aid in grasping key concept
Download or read book Statistics in Volcanology written by Heidy M. Mader and published by Geological Society of London. This book was released on 2006 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistics in Volcanology is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today's leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions. Specific topics include the use of expert elicitation and Bayesian methods in eruption forecasting, statistical models of temporal and spatial patterns of volcanic activity, analysis of time series in volcano seismology, probabilistic hazard assessment, and assessment of numerical models using robust statistical methods. Also provided are comprehensive overviews of volcanic phenomena, and a full glossary of both volcanological and statistical terms. Statistics in Volcanology is essential reading for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and research scientists interested in this multidisciplinary field.
Download or read book Towards Improved Forecasting of Volcanic Eruptions written by Corentin Caudron and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2020-04-01 with total page 317 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Bayesian Inference in Forecasting Volcanic Hazards written by Jennifer N. Weller and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This means that low gravity anomalies are likely good indicators of future volcanic activity and therefore would improve probabilistic hazard models. Therefore, gravity data are transformed into a likelihood function and combined with the original probability model in quantitative fashion using Bayesian statistics. The result is a model that is based on the distribution of past events but modified to include pertinent geologic information. Using the Bayesian approach in this example increases the uncertainty, or range in probability, which reflects how well we actually know our probability estimate. Therefore, we feel it is appropriate to consider a range in probabilities for volcanic disruption of the ANPP, 1-4 x 10p-
Download or read book Improved Seismic Monitoring Improved Decision Making written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-01-04 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Improved Seismic Monitoringâ€"Improved Decision-Making, describes and assesses the varied economic benefits potentially derived from modernizing and expanding seismic monitoring activities in the United States. These benefits include more effective loss avoidance regulations and strategies, improved understanding of earthquake processes, better engineering design, more effective hazard mitigation strategies, and improved emergency response and recovery. The economic principles that must be applied to determine potential benefits are reviewed and the report concludes that although there is insufficient information available at present to fully quantify all the potential benefits, the annual dollar costs for improved seismic monitoring are in the tens of millions and the potential annual dollar benefits are in the hundreds of millions.
Download or read book Probabilistic Modeling of Lava Flows written by Aleeza Harburger and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study serves as a first step towards a comprehensive hazard assessment for the San Francisco volcanic field in northern Arizona, which can be applied to local response plans and educational initiatives. The primary goal of this thesis is to resolve the conditional probability that, given a lava flow effusing from a new vent in the San Francisco volcanic field, it will inundate the city limits of Flagstaff. The spatial distribution of vents within the San Francisco volcanic field was analyzed in order to execute a lava flow simulation to determine the inundation hazard to Flagstaff. The Gaussian kernel function for estimating spatial density showed that there is a 99% chance that a future vent will be located within a 3.6 x 109 m2 area about 20 kilometers north of Flagstaff. This area contains the location of the most recent eruption at Sunset Crater, suggesting that the model is a good predictor of future vent locations. A Monte Carlo analysis of potential vent locations (N = 7,769) showed that 3.5% of simulated vents generated lava flows that inundated Flagstaff, and 1.1% of simulated vents were located within the city limits. Based on the average recurrence rate of vents formed during the Brunhes chronozone, the aggregate probability of lava flow inundation in Flagstaff is 1.1 x 10-5 per year. This suggests that there is a need for the city to plan for lava flows and associated hazards, especially forest fires. Even though it is unlikely that the city will ever have to utilize such a plan, it is imperative that thorough mitigation and response plans are established now-- before the onset of renewed volcanic activity.
Download or read book Observing the Volcano World written by Carina J. Fearnley and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-13 with total page 754 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book provides a comprehensive overview of volcanic crisis research, the goal being to establish ways of successfully applying volcanology in practice and to identify areas that need to be addressed for future progress. It shows how volcano crises are managed in practice, and helps to establish best practices. Consequently the book brings together authors from all over the globe who work with volcanoes, ranging from observatory volcanologists, disaster practitioners and government officials to NGO-based and government practitioners to address three key aspects of volcanic crises. First, the book explores the unique nature of volcanic hazards, which makes them a particularly challenging threat to forecast and manage, due in part to their varying spatial and temporal characteristics. Second, it presents lessons learned on how to best manage volcanic events based on a number of crises that have shaped our understanding of volcanic hazards and crises management. Third, it discusses the diverse and wide-ranging aspects of communication involved in crises, which merge old practices and new technologies to accommodate an increasingly challenging and globalised world. The information and insights presented here are essential to tapping established knowledge, moving towards more robust volcanic crises management, and understanding how the volcanic world is perceived from a range of standpoints and contexts around the globe.
Download or read book The Forecasting of Volcanic Eruptions written by R. B. Trombley and published by iUniverse. This book was released on 2006 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting the time, place, and character of a volcanic eruption is one of the major goals of volcanology. It is also one of the most difficult goals to achieve. Until recently, people living in a volcano's shadow had little help anticipating an eruption. A major volcanic event might strike with no warning at all. In the past 300 years, volcanic eruptions, most of them unexpected, have killed more than 250,000 people. In 2000, experts estimated that 500 million people were living in areas at risk from catastrophic volcanic eruptions. This book describes the strides that have made in eruption forecasting in recent years and explores why accurately predicting volcanic events remains difficult. Based on the methodologies in this book, Eruption Pro 10.6, to our knowledge, it is the only software programme of its type anywhere in the world. Eruption Pro 10.6 performs analysis on current available volcano eruption data from both historical and current available eruption data, near real-time measurement data including, seismic, deformation, thermal, frequency of eruption analysis, solar & lunar influences, crater lake temperature (if applicable), COSPEC, & statistical procedures. The newest version also accounts for, albeit very small, contributions due to lunar and solar influences.
Download or read book A Safer Future written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1991-02-01 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Initial priorities for U.S. participation in the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, declared by the United Nations, are contained in this volume. It focuses on seven issues: hazard and risk assessment; awareness and education; mitigation; preparedness for emergency response; recovery and reconstruction; prediction and warning; learning from disasters; and U.S. participation internationally. The committee presents its philosophy of calls for broad public and private participation to reduce the toll of disasters.
Download or read book The Impact of Open Science for Evaluation of Volcanic Hazards written by Elisa Trasatti and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Doubly Stochastic Models for Volcanic Hazard Assessment at Campi Flegrei Caldera written by Andrea Bevilacqua and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-03 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.
Download or read book Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions written by Angelo Paone and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2020-04-22 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The chapters presented in this International Volcanological Special Issue consider the characteristic features of a single volcano and/or a number of volcanoes worldwide (Jos and Biu Plateau volcanic provinces, Nigeria; Kachchh Rift Zone, Gujarat, India; Guamsan Caldera, Cheongsong, Korea; Somma-Vesuvius volcano, Napoli, Italy) in terms of future volcanic activity. The technical methods used are wide, innovative, as well as classic and reflect the knowledge presented in each chapter. The last chapter, however, deals with a new conceptual and methodological approach for the evaluation of volcanic risk. All these volcanoes (except Somma-Vesuvius volcano) are poorly studied so they deserve more attention, which is the goal of this volcanological book. Further studies are welcome to deepen the knowledge of each of the volcanoes presented.
