Download or read book Improving Conditional Probability Assessments for Forecasting and Decision Making written by Herbert Moskowitz and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Conditional Versus Joint Probability Assessments written by Herbert Moskowitz and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making written by Baruch Fischhoff and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-06-17 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral decision research offers a distinctive approach to understanding and improving decision making. It combines theory and method from multiple disciples (psychology, economics, statistics, decision theory, management science). It employs both empirical methods, to study how decisions are actually made, and analytical ones, to study how decisions should be made and how consequential imperfections are. This book brings together key publications, selected to represent the major topics and approaches used in the field. Put in one place, with integrating commentary, it shows the common elements in a research program that represents the scope of the field, while offering depth in each. Together, they provide a vision for what has become a burgeoning field.
Download or read book Paper written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 598 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Recent Developments in Decision Support Systems written by Clyde W. Holsapple and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1993-01-22 with total page 662 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines emerging developments in the decision support system (DSS) field as it enters its third decade. The book is based on the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Recent Developments in Decision Support Systems held in Italy in June 1991. The contributors are an international assortment of active DSS researchers who offer diverse perspectives on DSSs and examine recent advances in the field. There are four major parts to the book. Part 1 is concerned with DSS foundations, including concepts, theories, frameworks and models. Part 2 examines DSS development in terms of tools and methods for building DSSs. Part 3 is concerned with DSS usage and evaluation. Part 4 concludes with presentations of specific DSS applications. Researchers, graduate students and practitioners in the DSS field will find that the book provides a stimulating and current treatment of DSS topics, helping to usher in the next decade of DSS advances.
Download or read book Assessing Scenario Probabilities Via Interactive Pre emptive Goal Programming written by Cornelis A. De Kluyver and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Risk Analysis Foundations Models and Methods written by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 564 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk Analysis: Foundations, Models, and Methods fully addresses the questions of "What is health risk analysis?" and "How can its potentialities be developed to be most valuable to public health decision-makers and other health risk managers?" Risk analysis provides methods and principles for answering these questions. It is divided into methods for assessing, communicating, and managing health risks. Risk assessment quantitatively estimates the health risks to individuals and to groups from hazardous exposures and from the decisions or activities that create them. It applies specialized models and methods to quantify likely exposures and their resulting health risks. Its goal is to produce information to improve decisions. It does this by relating alternative decisions to their probable consequences and by identifying those decisions that make preferred outcomes more likely. Health risk assessment draws on explicit engineering, biomathematical, and statistical consequence models to describe or simulate the causal relations between actions and their probable effects on health. Risk communication characterizes and presents information about health risks and uncertainties to decision-makers and stakeholders. Risk management applies principles for choosing among alternative decision alternatives or actions that affect exposure, health risks, or their consequences.
Download or read book Intelligent Systems Concepts Methodologies Tools and Applications written by Management Association, Information Resources and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2018-06-04 with total page 2390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ongoing advancements in modern technology have led to significant developments in intelligent systems. With the numerous applications available, it becomes imperative to conduct research and make further progress in this field. Intelligent Systems: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications contains a compendium of the latest academic material on the latest breakthroughs and recent progress in intelligent systems. Including innovative studies on information retrieval, artificial intelligence, and software engineering, this multi-volume book is an ideal source for researchers, professionals, academics, upper-level students, and practitioners interested in emerging perspectives in the field of intelligent systems.
Download or read book Professional Judgment written by Jack Dowie and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1988-01-14 with total page 586 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policy-capturing models, data-based aids, expert systems and decision analysis are the main decision-making techniques introduced here, with attention to their methodological bases and practical evaluation.
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-05-31 with total page 840 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?). The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles. The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Download or read book Concise Encyclopedia of Software Engineering written by Derrick Morris and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Concise Encyclopedia of Software Engineering is intended to provide compact coverage of the knowledge relevant to the practicing software engineer. The content has been chosen to provide an introduction to the theory and techniques relevant to the software of a broad class of computer applications. It is supported by examples of particular applications and their enabling technologies. This Encyclopedia will be of value to new practitioners who need a concise overview and established practitioners who need to read about the "penumbra" surrounding their own specialities. It will also be useful to professionals from other disciplines who need to gain some understanding of the various aspects of software engineering which underpin complex information and control systems, and the thinking behind them.
Download or read book Probability Statistics And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences written by Allan Murphy and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-07-11 with total page 564 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Methodology drawn from the fields of probability. statistics and decision making plays an increasingly important role in the atmosphericsciences. both in basic and applied research and in experimental and operational studies. Applications of such methodology can be found in almost every facet of the discipline. from the most theoretical and global (e.g., atmospheric predictability. global climate modeling) to the most practical and local (e.g., crop-weather modeling forecast evaluation). Almost every issue of the multitude of journals published by the atmospheric sciences community now contain some or more papers involving applications of concepts and/or methodology from the fields of probability and statistics. Despite the increasingly pervasive nature of such applications. very few book length treatments of probabilistic and statistical topics of particular interest to atmospheric scientists have appeared (especially inEnglish) since the publication of the pioneering works of Brooks andCarruthers (Handbook of Statistical Methods in Meteorology) in 1953 and Panofsky and Brier-(some Applications of)statistics to Meteor) in 1958. As a result. many relatively recent developments in probability and statistics are not well known to atmospheric scientists and recent work in active areas of meteorological research involving significant applications of probabilistic and statistical methods are not familiar to the meteorological community as a whole.
Download or read book Uncertainty in Knowledge Based Systems written by Bernadette Bouchon-Meunier and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1987-11-04 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Management Science written by and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 600 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issues for Feb. 1965-Aug. 1967 include Bulletin of the Institute of Management Sciences.
Download or read book Coherent Stress Testing written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-06-10 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Coherent Stress Testing: A Bayesian Approach, industry expert Riccardo Rebonato presents a groundbreaking new approach to this important but often undervalued part of the risk management toolkit. Based on the author's extensive work, research and presentations in the area, the book fills a gap in quantitative risk management by introducing a new and very intuitively appealing approach to stress testing based on expert judgement and Bayesian networks. It constitutes a radical departure from the traditional statistical methodologies based on Economic Capital or Extreme-Value-Theory approaches. The book is split into four parts. Part I looks at stress testing and at its role in modern risk management. It discusses the distinctions between risk and uncertainty, the different types of probability that are used in risk management today and for which tasks they are best used. Stress testing is positioned as a bridge between the statistical areas where VaR can be effective and the domain of total Keynesian uncertainty. Part II lays down the quantitative foundations for the concepts described in the rest of the book. Part III takes readers through the application of the tools discussed in part II, and introduces two different systematic approaches to obtaining a coherent stress testing output that can satisfy the needs of industry users and regulators. In part IV the author addresses more practical questions such as embedding the suggestions of the book into a viable governance structure.
Download or read book Innovative Research Methodologies in Management written by Luiz Moutinho and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-12-05 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A seminal collection of research methodology themes, this two-volume work provides a set of key scholarly developments related to robustness, allowing scholars to advance their knowledge of research methods used outside of their own immediate fields. With a focus on emerging methodologies within management, key areas of importance are dissected with chapters covering statistical modelling, new measurements, digital research, biometrics and neuroscience, the philosophy of research, computer modelling approaches and new mathematical theories, among others. A genuinely pioneering contribution to the advancement of research methods in business studies, Innovative Research Methodologies in Management presents an analytical and engaging discussion on each topic. By introducing new research agendas it aims to pave the way for increased application of innovative techniques, allowing the exploration of future research perspectives. Volume II explores a range of research methodologies including the Spatial Delphi and Spatial Shang, Virtual Reality, the Futures Polygon and Neuroscience research.
Download or read book A Companion to Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.
