Download or read book An Introduction to Causal Inference written by Judea Pearl and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarizes recent advances in causal inference and underscores the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underly all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, the conditional nature of all causal and counterfactual claims, and the methods that have been developed for the assessment of such claims. These advances are illustrated using a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in Pearl (2000a), which subsumes and unifies other approaches to causation, and provides a coherent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: (1) queries about the effects of potential interventions, (also called "causal effects" or "policy evaluation") (2) queries about probabilities of counterfactuals, (including assessment of "regret," "attribution" or "causes of effects") and (3) queries about direct and indirect effects (also known as "mediation"). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potential-outcome frameworks and presents tools for a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both. The tools are demonstrated in the analyses of mediation, causes of effects, and probabilities of causation. -- p. 1.

Download or read book Targeted Learning written by Mark J. van der Laan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-06-17 with total page 628 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The statistics profession is at a unique point in history. The need for valid statistical tools is greater than ever; data sets are massive, often measuring hundreds of thousands of measurements for a single subject. The field is ready to move towards clear objective benchmarks under which tools can be evaluated. Targeted learning allows (1) the full generalization and utilization of cross-validation as an estimator selection tool so that the subjective choices made by humans are now made by the machine, and (2) targeting the fitting of the probability distribution of the data toward the target parameter representing the scientific question of interest. This book is aimed at both statisticians and applied researchers interested in causal inference and general effect estimation for observational and experimental data. Part I is an accessible introduction to super learning and the targeted maximum likelihood estimator, including related concepts necessary to understand and apply these methods. Parts II-IX handle complex data structures and topics applied researchers will immediately recognize from their own research, including time-to-event outcomes, direct and indirect effects, positivity violations, case-control studies, censored data, longitudinal data, and genomic studies.

Download or read book Causal Inference in Statistics written by Judea Pearl and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-25 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CAUSAL INFERENCE IN STATISTICS A Primer Causality is central to the understanding and use of data. Without an understanding of cause–effect relationships, we cannot use data to answer questions as basic as "Does this treatment harm or help patients?" But though hundreds of introductory texts are available on statistical methods of data analysis, until now, no beginner-level book has been written about the exploding arsenal of methods that can tease causal information from data. Causal Inference in Statistics fills that gap. Using simple examples and plain language, the book lays out how to define causal parameters; the assumptions necessary to estimate causal parameters in a variety of situations; how to express those assumptions mathematically; whether those assumptions have testable implications; how to predict the effects of interventions; and how to reason counterfactually. These are the foundational tools that any student of statistics needs to acquire in order to use statistical methods to answer causal questions of interest. This book is accessible to anyone with an interest in interpreting data, from undergraduates, professors, researchers, or to the interested layperson. Examples are drawn from a wide variety of fields, including medicine, public policy, and law; a brief introduction to probability and statistics is provided for the uninitiated; and each chapter comes with study questions to reinforce the readers understanding.

Download or read book Theory Based Data Analysis for the Social Sciences written by Carol S. Aneshensel and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2013 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the elaboration model for the multivariate analysis of observational quantitative data. This model entails the systematic introduction of "third variables" to the analysis of a focal relationship between one independent and one dependent variable to ascertain whether an inference of causality is justified. Two complementary strategies are used: an exclusionary strategy that rules out alternative explanations such as spuriousness and redundancy with competing theories, and an inclusive strategy that connects the focal relationship to a network of other relationships, including the hypothesized causal mechanisms linking the focal independent variable to the focal dependent variable. The primary emphasis is on the translation of theory into a logical analytic strategy and the interpretation of results. The elaboration model is applied with case studies drawn from newly published research that serve as prototypes for aligning theory and the data analytic plan used to test it; these studies are drawn from a wide range of substantive topics in the social sciences, such as emotion management in the workplace, subjective age identification during the transition to adulthood, and the relationship between religious and paranormal beliefs. The second application of the elaboration model is in the form of original data analysis presented in two Analysis Journals that are integrated throughout the text and implement the full elaboration model. Using real data, not contrived examples, the text provides a step-by-step guide through the process of integrating theory with data analysis in order to arrive at meaningful answers to research questions.

Download or read book The Book of Why written by Judea Pearl and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2018-05-15 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.

Download or read book The SAGE Handbook of Regression Analysis and Causal Inference written by Henning Best and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2013-12-20 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ′The editors of the new SAGE Handbook of Regression Analysis and Causal Inference have assembled a wide-ranging, high-quality, and timely collection of articles on topics of central importance to quantitative social research, many written by leaders in the field. Everyone engaged in statistical analysis of social-science data will find something of interest in this book.′ - John Fox, Professor, Department of Sociology, McMaster University ′The authors do a great job in explaining the various statistical methods in a clear and simple way - focussing on fundamental understanding, interpretation of results, and practical application - yet being precise in their exposition.′ - Ben Jann, Executive Director, Institute of Sociology, University of Bern ′Best and Wolf have put together a powerful collection, especially valuable in its separate discussions of uses for both cross-sectional and panel data analysis.′ -Tom Smith, Senior Fellow, NORC, University of Chicago Edited and written by a team of leading international social scientists, this Handbook provides a comprehensive introduction to multivariate methods. The Handbook focuses on regression analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal data with an emphasis on causal analysis, thereby covering a large number of different techniques including selection models, complex samples, and regression discontinuities. Each Part starts with a non-mathematical introduction to the method covered in that section, giving readers a basic knowledge of the method’s logic, scope and unique features. Next, the mathematical and statistical basis of each method is presented along with advanced aspects. Using real-world data from the European Social Survey (ESS) and the Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), the book provides a comprehensive discussion of each method’s application, making this an ideal text for PhD students and researchers embarking on their own data analysis.

Download or read book Best Practices in Quantitative Methods written by Jason W. Osborne and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2008 with total page 609 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The contributors to Best Practices in Quantitative Methods envision quantitative methods in the 21st century, identify the best practices, and, where possible, demonstrate the superiority of their recommendations empirically. Editor Jason W. Osborne designed this book with the goal of providing readers with the most effective, evidence-based, modern quantitative methods and quantitative data analysis across the social and behavioral sciences. The text is divided into five main sections covering select best practices in Measurement, Research Design, Basics of Data Analysis, Quantitative Methods, and Advanced Quantitative Methods. Each chapter contains a current and expansive review of the literature, a case for best practices in terms of method, outcomes, inferences, etc., and broad-ranging examples along with any empirical evidence to show why certain techniques are better. Key Features: Describes important implicit knowledge to readers: The chapters in this volume explain the important details of seemingly mundane aspects of quantitative research, making them accessible to readers and demonstrating why it is important to pay attention to these details. Compares and contrasts analytic techniques: The book examines instances where there are multiple options for doing things, and make recommendations as to what is the "best" choice—or choices, as what is best often depends on the circumstances. Offers new procedures to update and explicate traditional techniques: The featured scholars present and explain new options for data analysis, discussing the advantages and disadvantages of the new procedures in depth, describing how to perform them, and demonstrating their use. Intended Audience: Representing the vanguard of research methods for the 21st century, this book is an invaluable resource for graduate students and researchers who want a comprehensive, authoritative resource for practical and sound advice from leading experts in quantitative methods.

Download or read book Causal Inference written by Scott Cunningham and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2021-01-26 with total page 585 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An accessible, contemporary introduction to the methods for determining cause and effect in the Social Sciences “Causation versus correlation has been the basis of arguments—economic and otherwise—since the beginning of time. Causal Inference: The Mixtape uses legit real-world examples that I found genuinely thought-provoking. It’s rare that a book prompts readers to expand their outlook; this one did for me.”—Marvin Young (Young MC) Causal inference encompasses the tools that allow social scientists to determine what causes what. In a messy world, causal inference is what helps establish the causes and effects of the actions being studied—for example, the impact (or lack thereof) of increases in the minimum wage on employment, the effects of early childhood education on incarceration later in life, or the influence on economic growth of introducing malaria nets in developing regions. Scott Cunningham introduces students and practitioners to the methods necessary to arrive at meaningful answers to the questions of causation, using a range of modeling techniques and coding instructions for both the R and the Stata programming languages.

Download or read book Cause and Explanation in Ancient Greek Thought written by R. J. Hankinson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: R. J. Hankinson traces the history of ancient Greek thinking about causation and explanation, from its earliest beginnings through more than a thousand years to the middle of the first millennium of the Christian era. He examines ways in which the Ancient Greeks dealt with questions about how and why things happen as and when they do, about the basic constitution and structure of things, about function and purpose, laws of nature, chance, coincidence, and responsibility.

Download or read book Causal Inference in Statistics Social and Biomedical Sciences written by Guido W. Imbens and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-04-06 with total page 647 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text presents statistical methods for studying causal effects and discusses how readers can assess such effects in simple randomized experiments.

Download or read book Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel Hierarchical Models written by Andrew Gelman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 654 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 2007, is for the applied researcher performing data analysis using linear and nonlinear regression and multilevel models.

Download or read book Methods Matter written by Richard J. Murnane and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-09-17 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Educational policy-makers around the world constantly make decisions about how to use scarce resources to improve the education of children. Unfortunately, their decisions are rarely informed by evidence on the consequences of these initiatives in other settings. Nor are decisions typically accompanied by well-formulated plans to evaluate their causal impacts. As a result, knowledge about what works in different situations has been very slow to accumulate. Over the last several decades, advances in research methodology, administrative record keeping, and statistical software have dramatically increased the potential for researchers to conduct compelling evaluations of the causal impacts of educational interventions, and the number of well-designed studies is growing. Written in clear, concise prose, Methods Matter: Improving Causal Inference in Educational and Social Science Research offers essential guidance for those who evaluate educational policies. Using numerous examples of high-quality studies that have evaluated the causal impacts of important educational interventions, the authors go beyond the simple presentation of new analytical methods to discuss the controversies surrounding each study, and provide heuristic explanations that are also broadly accessible. Murnane and Willett offer strong methodological insights on causal inference, while also examining the consequences of a wide variety of educational policies implemented in the U.S. and abroad. Representing a unique contribution to the literature surrounding educational research, this landmark text will be invaluable for students and researchers in education and public policy, as well as those interested in social science.

Download or read book Using Propensity Scores in Quasi Experimental Designs written by William M. Holmes and published by SAGE Publications. This book was released on 2013-06-10 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using Propensity Scores in Quasi-Experimental Designs, by William M. Holmes, examines how propensity scores can be used to reduce bias with different kinds of quasi-experimental designs and to fix or improve broken experiments. Requiring minimal use of matrix and vector algebra, the book covers the causal assumptions of propensity score estimates and their many uses, linking these uses with analysis appropriate for different designs. Thorough coverage of bias assessment, propensity score estimation, and estimate improvement is provided, along with graphical and statistical methods for this process. Applications are included for analysis of variance and covariance, maximum likelihood and logistic regression, two-stage least squares, generalized linear regression, and general estimation equations. The examples use public data sets that have policy and programmatic relevance across a variety of disciplines.

Download or read book Matched Sampling for Causal Effects written by Donald B. Rubin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-09-04 with total page 5 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Matched sampling is often used to help assess the causal effect of some exposure or intervention, typically when randomized experiments are not available or cannot be conducted. This book presents a selection of Donald B. Rubin's research articles on matched sampling, from the early 1970s, when the author was one of the major researchers involved in establishing the field, to recent contributions to this now extremely active area. The articles include fundamental theoretical studies that have become classics, important extensions, and real applications that range from breast cancer treatments to tobacco litigation to studies of criminal tendencies. They are organized into seven parts, each with an introduction by the author that provides historical and personal context and discusses the relevance of the work today. A concluding essay offers advice to investigators designing observational studies. The book provides an accessible introduction to the study of matched sampling and will be an indispensable reference for students and researchers.

Download or read book Commercial Motor Vehicle Driver Fatigue Long Term Health and Highway Safety written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-09-12 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are approximately 4,000 fatalities in crashes involving trucks and buses in the United States each year. Though estimates are wide-ranging, possibly 10 to 20 percent of these crashes might have involved fatigued drivers. The stresses associated with their particular jobs (irregular schedules, etc.) and the lifestyle that many truck and bus drivers lead, puts them at substantial risk for insufficient sleep and for developing short- and long-term health problems. Commercial Motor Vehicle Driver Fatigue, Long-Term Health and Highway Safety assesses the state of knowledge about the relationship of such factors as hours of driving, hours on duty, and periods of rest to the fatigue experienced by truck and bus drivers while driving and the implications for the safe operation of their vehicles. This report evaluates the relationship of these factors to drivers' health over the longer term, and identifies improvements in data and research methods that can lead to better understanding in both areas.

Download or read book The Economics of Artificial Intelligence written by Ajay Agrawal and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2024-03-05 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timely investigation of the potential economic effects, both realized and unrealized, of artificial intelligence within the United States healthcare system. In sweeping conversations about the impact of artificial intelligence on many sectors of the economy, healthcare has received relatively little attention. Yet it seems unlikely that an industry that represents nearly one-fifth of the economy could escape the efficiency and cost-driven disruptions of AI. The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: Health Care Challenges brings together contributions from health economists, physicians, philosophers, and scholars in law, public health, and machine learning to identify the primary barriers to entry of AI in the healthcare sector. Across original papers and in wide-ranging responses, the contributors analyze barriers of four types: incentives, management, data availability, and regulation. They also suggest that AI has the potential to improve outcomes and lower costs. Understanding both the benefits of and barriers to AI adoption is essential for designing policies that will affect the evolution of the healthcare system.

Download or read book Optimal Data Analysis written by Paul R. Yarnold and published by Amer Psychological Assn. This book was released on 2005-01-01 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Optimal Data Analysis: A Guidebook With Software for Windows offers the only statistical analysis paradigm that maximizes (weighted) predictive accuracy. This unique book fully explains this paradigm and includes simple-to-use software that empowers a universe of associated analyses. For any specific sample and exploratory or confirmatory hypothesis, optimal data analysis (ODA) identifies the statistical model that yields maximum predictive accuracy, assesses the exact Type I error rate, and evaluates potential cross-generalizability.