Download or read book Implications of Uncertainty Abour Long run Inflation and the Price Level written by Gerald Stuber and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Implications of Uncertainty about Long run Inflation and the Price Level written by Gerald J. Stuber and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Implications of Uncertainty About Long Run Inflation and the Price Level October 2001 written by Bank of Canada and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Implications of Uncertainty about Long run Inflation and the Price Level written by Bank of Canada and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper surveys recent developments in the theoretical and empirical literature on the economic implications of uncertainty about the longer-term outlook for inflation. In particular, the linkages between inflation, long-run inflation uncertainty, and aggregate economic activity in industrial economies have become considerably better understood during the past decade In the case of Canada, there is evidence that uncertainty about long-run inflation fell considerably between the high-inflation period of the 1970s and early 1980s and the subsequent moderate-inflation period, and decreased still further in the low-inflation period that has been evident since the early 1990s. As a result, both businesses and households have increasingly used longer-term financial instruments to meet their financing needs over the past two decades. In general, recent empirical work for Canada and elsewhere considerably strengthens the view that reductions in long-run inflation uncertainty can have beneficial effects on financial markets, capital spending, and ultimately aggregate levels of economic activity. Recent theoretical developments have improved our understanding of why this is so.

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book The Effects of Inflation on Economic Uncertainty Growth and Unemployment written by A. Steven Holland and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates written by Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-09-01 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short-, medium-, and long-term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel’s functional form.

Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Download or read book Why Inflation Targeting written by Charles Freedman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-04-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the second chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." We begin by discussing the costs of inflation, including their role in generating boom-bust cycles. Following a general discussion of the need for a nominal anchor, we describe a specific type of monetary anchor, the inflation-targeting regime, and its two key intellectual roots-the absence of long-run trade-offs and the time-inconsistency problem. We conclude by providing a brief introduction to the way in which inflation targeting works.

Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.

Download or read book Unequal We Stand written by Jonathan Heathcote and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors conducted a systematic empirical study of cross-sectional inequality in the U.S., integrating data from various surveys. The authors follow the mapping suggested by the household budget constraint from individual wages to individual earnings, to household earnings, to disposable income, and, ultimately, to consumption and wealth. They document a continuous and sizable increase in wage inequality over the sample period. Changes in the distribution of hours worked sharpen the rise in earnings inequality before 1982, but mitigate its increase thereafter. Taxes and transfers compress the level of income inequality, especially at the bottom of the distribution, but have little effect on the overall trend. Charts and tables. This is a print-on-demand publication; it is not an original.

Download or read book Expectations Anchoring and Inflation Persistence written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.

Download or read book Inflation Uncertainty and Investment Classic Reprint written by Carliss Y. Baldwin and published by Forgotten Books. This book was released on 2018-02-25 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excerpt from Inflation, Uncertainty, and Investment This paper considers the effects of inflation, interest rates and uncertainty on a firm's choice between assets of different lives. We first focus on the impact of inflation and interest rates on the value of nominal depreciation tax shields. We find that the effect of an inflation-induced increase in nominal interest rates on the breakeven prices of short and long-lived assets is not monotonic. At low initial nominal interest rates, an increase in the interest rate increases the maximum price that the firm is willing to pay for the short-lived asset relative to the long-lived asset. At some point, the effect reverses so that a further increase in interest rates reduces the maximum or breakeven price of the short-lived asset. Simulation results indicate that these changes occur at rates that are within the range of recent u.s. Experience, 52 to 202. Second, we focus on the impact of relative price uncertainty on the decision to choose a short or long-lived asset. We find that uncertainty increases the breakeven price of shorter-lived assets: in other words, given uncertainty about future relative prices, short-lived assets will be chosen over long - lived assets at higher prices than under certainty. The change in the breakdown price occurs because both long and short-lived assets have a valuable switching option. The Option is more valuable for short-lived assets because the opportunity to switch occurs sooner. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.

Download or read book Price level Uncertainty and Inflation Targeting written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, the authors make two points about commonly proposed rules for inflation targeting. First, they argue that there is a great deal of uncertainty about the price level and inflation inherent in current proposals to target inflation. They show that the degree to which the central bank cares about the real economy can have a large impact on price level (and inflation) uncertainty. They find that the magnitudes of uncertainty that prevailed across the G-10 throughout the last four decades are the expected consequence of commonly proposed inflation-targeting regimes. Second, they show that if central banks want both to stabilize business cycle fluctuations and to achieve price stability, then it may be useful to adopt a long-term objective for the price level.

Download or read book The Structural Foundations of Monetary Policy written by Michael D. Bordo and published by Hoover Press. This book was released on 2018-03-01 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Structural Foundations of Monetary Policy, Michael D. Bordo, John H. Cochrane, and Amit Seru bring together discussions and presentations from the Hoover Institution's annual monetary policy conference. The conference participants discuss long-run monetary issues facing the world economy, with an emphasis on deep, unresolved structural questions. They explore vital issues affecting the Federal Reserve, the United States' central bank. They voice concern over the Fed's independence, governance, and ability to withstand future shocks and analyze the effects of its monetary policies and growing balance sheet in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. The authors ask a range of questions that get to the heart of twenty-first-century monetary policy. What should the role of the Fed be? Which policies and strategies will mitigate the risks of the next crisis and at the same time spur innovation and job creation? How can new technology make the Fed's payment system safer, faster, and more efficient? What does the emergence of crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin mean for competition and stability? How can the Fed defend itself against exploitation and politicization? Finally they propose reforms to ensure that the Fed will remain independent, stable, strong, and resilient in an unpredictable world.

Download or read book The Effects on Growth of Commodity Price Uncertainty and Shocks written by Jan Dehn and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity export dependency confers ex post shocks and ex ante uncertainty upon producing countries. What reduces growth is not the prospect of volatile world prices, but the actual realization of negative shocks.Dehn estimates the effects on growth of commodity price shocks and uncertainty within an established empirical growth model. Ex post shocks and ex ante uncertainty have been treated in the empirical literature as if they were synonymous. But they are distinct concepts and it is both theoretically and empirically inappropriate to treat them as synonymous.He shows that the interaction between policy and aid is robust to the inclusion of variables capturing commodity price movements. More important, his approach departs in three ways from earlier empirical studies of the subject:- It deals with issues of endogeneity without incurring an excessive loss of efficiency.- It defines the dependent variable to allow an assessment of the longer-term implications of temporary trade shocks.- It imposes no priors on how commodity price movements affect growth, but compares and contrasts a range of competing shock and uncertainty specifications.Dehn resolves the disagreement about the long-run effect of positive shocks on growth, finding that positive shocks have no long-run impact on growth (that windfalls from trade shocks do not translate into sustainable increases in income).He shows that negative shocks have large, highly significant, and negative effects on growth, but that commodity price uncertainty does not affect growth.This paper - a product of Rural Development, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze the impact of commodity price risks on developing economies. The author may be contacted at [email protected].

Download or read book Current Issues in Monetary Economics written by Helmut Wagner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 343 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Helmut Wagner University of Hagen, Feithstr. 140, D - 58084 Hagen In the last few years decisive methodological and thematic focal points which are important for practical economic policy have been developed in the theory of monetary and exchange rate policy. This book is concerned with these developments, their assessment and the open questions which have still not been solved. It is divided into four parts. The first part deals with central bank design, the second with strategies of monetary policies and their implementation. Part III is concerned with theoretical aspects of exchange rate policy and monetary union, and part IV with selected issues of monetary and exchange rate policy in developing and transition countries. In the following pages I will provide an 1 overview of the individual articles With the exception of the article by Nobel . Laureate James Tobin, the contributions contained in this book were all introduced and discussed at an academic symposium I organized in Castrop Rauxel on 8 and 9 September 1997. James Tobin agreed spontaneously to my suggestion that he should write a comprehensive article especially for this publication. A short summary of the comments or supplementary papers and of the general discussions will be given in the last section of this book, titled "Conclusion and Supplements". There I will also provide some supplements respecting the issues which were the subject of the greatest amount of debate at the symposium.