Download or read book Impact of Overoptimism and Overconfidence on Economic Behavior written by Andreas Müller and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inhaltsangabe:Introduction: Economic theory normally focuses on rational agents optimizing individual utility. Since the second half of the 20th century, this viewpoint has been enriched by findings from the field of psychology. A new trait of research was created called behavioral economics . It takes into account subjective characteristics such as asymmetric preference and judgment, or limits of rational processing, willpower, and greed. This paper aims to give an overview of two related human traits that have attracted particularly wide interest, namely overconfidence and overoptimism. The two are closely related to each other, and often used synonymously. Broadly speaking, overconfidence results in underestimation of future risks, e.g. the riskiness of future cash flows, whilst overoptimism leads to an overestimation of future positive outcomes, e.g. the future returns of a company. Besides, the paper wants to deduct suggestions for further research, by systematically identifying uncovered topics in existing literature. Usually Alpert and Raiffa are credited with the first discovery of overconfidence. However, the most influential study is probably Russo and Schoemaker. It was published in the Sloan Management Review and communicated the topic to a broader audience for the first time. In particular, it revealed that assumingly rational managers were prone to overconfidence, too. This challenged traditional management doctrines and generated interest in a better understanding of the topic and further research. To exemplify overconfidence, Russo and Schoemaker asked managers to give numerical intervals for ten general-knowledge questions, such that nine out of the ten answers would be correct. On average participants included the correct value within their interval only 5 out of 10 times, i.e. they underestimated potential errors in their estimations. Svenson is probably the most influential source regarding overoptimism. He made the subject intuitively understandable and established a standard measurement method that could be easily used for subsequent research. To give an example of overoptimism: Svenson asked students to compare their driving skills to those of their classmates. Roughly 80% believed they belonged to the top 50%, i.e. they overestimated their abilities. This paper also provides a closer look at the empirical methods normally applied in field studies. Although the phenomena are intuitively understandable, empirical research [...]
Download or read book Impact of Overoptimism and Overconfidence on Economic Behavior written by Andreas Müller and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2007-11 with total page 81 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Diploma Thesis from the year 2007 in the subject Business economics - Business Management, Corporate Governance, grade: 1,3, Otto Beisheim School of Management Vallendar, 58 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: This paper aims to give an overview of two related human traits that have attracted particularly wide interest, namely overconfidence and overoptimism. The two are closely related to each other, and often used synonymously. Broadly speaking, overconfidence results in underestimation of future risks, e.g. the riskiness of future cash flows, whilst overoptimism leads to an overestimation of future positive outcomes, e.g. the future returns of a company. Besides, the paper wants to deduct suggestions for further research, by systematically identifying uncovered topics in existing literature. This paper also provides a closer look at the empirical methods normally applied in field studies. Although the phenomena are intuitively understandable, empirical researchstill presents itself as a mosaic of fragmented testing rather than a coherent framework. One may assume that this is mainly caused by the difficult measurability of overconfidence and overoptimism: On the one hand, the decision maker, convinced of his own rationality, contributes zero overconfidence or overoptimism to his actions. On the other hand, even a neutral observer cannot specify any degree of biasedness a priori, as stochastic outcomes per definition do not allow for perfect prediction. Therefore, scientists frequently rely on proxy variables that at least allow for measuring a group's average overoptimism or overconfidence. Furthermore, this paper empirically examines several considerations regarding existing research and measurement methods. It particularly aims to connect biasedness with certain personal and economic characteristics, namely participants' gender, industry affiliation, company life cycle, success and risk preferences. Additionally, different methods are e
Download or read book Overconfidence Review of its Economic Implications written by Stefan Dietrich and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2018-05-02 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essay from the year 2017 in the subject Psychology - Work, Business, Organisation, grade: 1,00, University of Mannheim, course: Behavioral Economics Seminar, language: English, abstract: Overconfidence is believed to be one of the most widespread behavioral biases. Empirical evidence supports this argument in many instances and differentiates between various forms and manifestations. Whether this is in sum economically negative for the individual or society remains unanswered in the literature. I analyze the economic implications of overconfidence based on recent research and connects them to reasons and viable solutions to overcome this bias in certain areas of the economic realm: consumer choices, market entry and decision making of firms, financial markets and bubbles.
Download or read book Overconfidence and its Influence on Risk written by Christopher Knoll and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2021-11-18 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2016 in the subject Psychology - Industrial and organizational psychology, grade: 1.7, University of Passau, course: Behavioral Economics and the Seven Sins, language: English, abstract: In a study conducted in 1980 drivers were surveyed about their driving skills in comparison to a group of others. In her experiment, Svenson analyses how people judge their own skill and risk taking engaged in risky activities. The result of the experiment shows that 88% of US subjects and 77% of Swedish subjects judged their skills above the average skill in their subject group. Preston and Harris (1965) indicate even more bias from subjects. They compared 50 drivers which were involved in accidents, besides being hospitalized, they still showed means stating that they judged themselves more skillful than the average driver. The central element of the economic paradigm is homo economicus. Homo economicus is described as an individual with rational actions. The homo economicus faces a situation with limited resources to satisfy his needs. Therefore, the homo economicus uses rational decisions to optimize his outcome and gain the highest utility possible. Behavioral economic research on the other hand distinguishes a deviance of human behavior from the rational homo economicus as can be observed in Svenson’s study. The behavior is called overconfidence, which is a widely discussed phenomenon in behavioral economic literature. Psychological studies show that most people are overconfident about their own relative abilities, tend to underestimate their competition and make unreasonably optimistic predictions about their futures. In the following, the characteristics of the behavioral model of overconfidence will be further discussed. Subsequently, the influence of overconfidence on risk taking will be evaluated.
Download or read book Managerial Overconfidence Different Thinking Through Different Education written by Maximilian Margolin and published by Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag). This book was released on 2013-08 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In literature, overconfidence has been blamed for economic bubbles and crises as well as for international conflicts and wars. While education has already been shown to impact one’s level of overconfidence previous research focused on the length and profoundness of education. This study, in contrast, examines the connection between overconfidence and the field in which a person has been educated. The issues covered are therefore how education and mind set are related, why a differentiation between “quantitative” and “qualitative” education makes sense in this context, and how different mind-sets influence an individual’s proneness to overconfidence. Drawing on the dual process concept of reasoning from psychology it is argued that the focus of one’s education may have an influence on individual levels of overconfidence through distinct ways of reasoning that are acquired and practiced during higher education. As support for this theory, data on the overconfidence of CEOs of the largest German companies is used and experiments for future research on this topic are suggested.
Download or read book Three Essays on the Effect of Overconfidence on Economic Decision Making written by Klajdi Bregu and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation uses experimental evidence to explore the effects of overconfidence on economic decision making. In Chapter 1 I provide experimental evidence of the effects of alcohol on overconfidence and several other important tasks. I also explore the relationship between overconfidence and the behavior in the other tasks. The data from this experiment show that an alcohol level of 0.08 does not have a systemic effect on behavior and more importantly it does not affect one's level of overconfidence. I also show that overconfidence is not significantly correlated with risk preferences, math, strategic behavior, anchoring, altruism, and food choices. In Chapter 2 I use feedback to establish a causal link between overconfidence and trading behavior. Feedback is used to eliminate the possibility for subjects to be overconfident about the accuracy of their signals. The data from this experiment show that overconfidence affects trading volume and profits, but when feedback is provided trading volume is no longer affected by overconfidence. This shows that there exists a causal relationship between overconfidence and trading volume. Lastly, Chapter 3 explores the role of overconfidence on insurance purchasing decisions. I show that overconfident people buy significantly less insurance. The stability of overconfidence using different measures and the relationship between overconfidence and risk is also explored. I find that different tasks do not elicit the same level of overconfidence and that risk preferences and overconfidence are not statistically significantly correlated.
Download or read book The Optimism Bias written by Tali Sharot and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2011-06-14 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Psychologists have long been aware that most people maintain an irrationally positive outlook on life—but why? Turns out, we might be hardwired that way. In this absorbing exploration, Tali Sharot—one of the most innovative neuroscientists at work today—demonstrates that optimism may be crucial to human existence. The Optimism Bias explores how the brain generates hope and what happens when it fails; how the brains of optimists and pessimists differ; why we are terrible at predicting what will make us happy; how emotions strengthen our ability to recollect; how anticipation and dread affect us; how our optimistic illusions affect our financial, professional, and emotional decisions; and more. Drawing on cutting-edge science, The Optimism Bias provides us with startling new insight into the workings of the brain and the major role that optimism plays in determining how we live our lives.
Download or read book Behavioral Corporate Finance written by Hersh Shefrin and published by College Ie Overruns. This book was released on 2017-04-16 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The New Workplace written by David Holman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-07-07 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Just-in-time", "total quality management", "lean manufacturing", "call centres", "team work", "empowerment" - most people in business have heard these buzz words, often offered as a panacea to all profit ills. So why don't they always work? Can you combine them anyhow? If not, why not? The New Workplace Handbook is a comprehensive guide to the evidence available on how modern working practices and technology affect the people in organizations. Within a broad psychological framework, leading experts examine how people work, their experience of work, the impact on productivity and performance and the human resource implications. Guidance is offered on a range of different methods, tools and practices that can be used to guide the design and implementation of modern working practices to ensure that pitfalls are avoided and the best possible results are obtained from new initiatives. Indispensable for consultants, this Handbook will also be useful for students and scholars in the psychology of business, human resource professionals and anyone involved in the management of new working practices.
Download or read book Investor Behavior written by H. Kent Baker and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-02-10 with total page 645 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: WINNER, Business: Personal Finance/Investing, 2015 USA Best Book Awards FINALIST, Business: Reference, 2015 USA Best Book Awards Investor Behavior provides readers with a comprehensive understanding and the latest research in the area of behavioral finance and investor decision making. Blending contributions from noted academics and experienced practitioners, this 30-chapter book will provide investment professionals with insights on how to understand and manage client behavior; a framework for interpreting financial market activity; and an in-depth understanding of this important new field of investment research. The book should also be of interest to academics, investors, and students. The book will cover the major principles of investor psychology, including heuristics, bounded rationality, regret theory, mental accounting, framing, prospect theory, and loss aversion. Specific sections of the book will delve into the role of personality traits, financial therapy, retirement planning, financial coaching, and emotions in investment decisions. Other topics covered include risk perception and tolerance, asset allocation decisions under inertia and inattention bias; evidenced based financial planning, motivation and satisfaction, behavioral investment management, and neurofinance. Contributions will delve into the behavioral underpinnings of various trading and investment topics including trader psychology, stock momentum, earnings surprises, and anomalies. The final chapters of the book examine new research on socially responsible investing, mutual funds, and real estate investing from a behavioral perspective. Empirical evidence and current literature about each type of investment issue are featured. Cited research studies are presented in a straightforward manner focusing on the comprehension of study findings, rather than on the details of mathematical frameworks.
Download or read book A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing written by Hersh Shefrin and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2008-05-19 with total page 636 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral finance is the study of how psychology affects financial decision making and financial markets. It is increasingly becoming the common way of understanding investor behavior and stock market activity. Incorporating the latest research and theory, Shefrin offers both a strong theory and efficient empirical tools that address derivatives, fixed income securities, mean-variance efficient portfolios, and the market portfolio. The book provides a series of examples to illustrate the theory. The second edition continues the tradition of the first edition by being the one and only book to focus completely on how behavioral finance principles affect asset pricing, now with its theory deepened and enriched by a plethora of research since the first edition
Download or read book Beyond Greed and Fear written by Hersh Shefrin and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Even the best Wall Street investors make mistakes. No matter how savvy or experienced, all financial practitioners eventually let bias, overconfidence, and emotion cloud their judgement and misguide their actions. Yet most financial decision-making models fail to factor in these fundamentals of human nature. In Beyond Greed and Fear, the most authoritative guide to what really influences the decision-making process, Hersh Shefrin uses the latest psychological research to help us understand the human behavior that guides stock selection, financial services, and corporate financial strategy. Shefrin argues that financial practitioners must acknowledge and understand behavioral finance--the application of psychology to financial behavior--in order to avoid many of the investment pitfalls caused by human error. Through colorful, often humorous real-world examples, Shefrin points out the common but costly mistakes that money managers, security analysts, financial planners, investment bankers, and corporate leaders make, so that readers gain valuable insights into their own financial decisions and those of their employees, asset managers, and advisors. According to Shefrin, the financial community ignores the psychology of investing at its own peril. Beyond Greed and Fear illuminates behavioral finance for today's investor. It will help practitioners to recognize--and avoid--bias and errors in their decisions, and to modify and improve their overall investment strategies.
Download or read book Policy and Choice written by William J. Congdon and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2011 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Argues that public finance--the study of the government's role in economics--should incorporate principles from behavior economics and other branches of psychology.
Download or read book Handbook of Behavioral Economics Foundations and Applications 1 written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 748 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Behavioral Economics: Foundations and Applications presents the concepts and tools of behavioral economics. Its authors are all economists who share a belief that the objective of behavioral economics is to enrich, rather than to destroy or replace, standard economics. They provide authoritative perspectives on the value to economic inquiry of insights gained from psychology. Specific chapters in this first volume cover reference-dependent preferences, asset markets, household finance, corporate finance, public economics, industrial organization, and structural behavioural economics. This Handbook provides authoritative summaries by experts in respective subfields regarding where behavioral economics has been; what it has so far accomplished; and its promise for the future. This taking-stock is just what Behavioral Economics needs at this stage of its so-far successful career. Helps academic and non-academic economists understand recent, rapid changes in theoretical and empirical advances within behavioral economics Designed for economists already convinced of the benefits of behavioral economics and mainstream economists who feel threatened by new developments in behavioral economics Written for those who wish to become quickly acquainted with behavioral economics
Download or read book Time Predictions written by Torleif Halkjelsvik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-02-28 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
Download or read book Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management written by Michael M. Pompian and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-01-31 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Pompian is handing you the magic book, the one that reveals your behavioral flaws and shows you how to avoid them. The tricks to success are here. Read and do not stop until you are one of very few magicians." —Arnold S. Wood, President and Chief Executive Officer, Martingale Asset Management Fear and greed drive markets, as well as good and bad investment decision-making. In Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management, financial expert Michael Pompian shows you, whether you're an investor or a financial advisor, how to make better investment decisions by employing behavioral finance research. Pompian takes a practical approach to the science of behavioral finance and puts it to use in the real world. He reveals 20 of the most prominent individual investor biases and helps you properly modify your asset allocation decisions based on the latest research on behavioral anomalies of individual investors.
Download or read book Perspectives on Innovation written by Franco Malerba and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2007-03-29 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Case studies, empirical models, appreciative analyses and formal theories abound.
