Download or read book Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Sustainability of Fiscal Policy written by Myoung Chul Kim and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the impact of demographic change on the sustainability of fiscal policy. Firstly, we study the main causes of the deterioration of Japanese government fiscal conditions from the demographic point of view. Next, we investigate the impact of Korean population aging on the long-term fiscal conditions using the method of the forward looking measure of Generational Accounting. Most of the deterioration in the fiscal situation of the Japanese government since 1990 can be explained by an increase in social security costs related with population aging and a decrease in tax revenue caused by lackluster economy. Considering the rapid population aging, Korean government's fiscal condition, evaluated to be very sound currently, could also deteriorate soon without counteracting preemptively. The results of Korean Generational Accounting show that the social security related expenditures are main drives for the deterioration of long-term fiscal condition. In addition, as shown by the case of Japan, the effect of the decreased tax revenue could be greater than that of increased expenditure. The policy for improving the tax revenue through economic growth is also very important for the sustainability of government finance.

Download or read book Demographic Change and Economic Well Being written by International Monetary Fund. Communications Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-15 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the role of fiscal policy and demographics. By the end of this century, about two-thirds of all countries are expected to have declining populations. This will have profound implications for economics, financial markets, social stability, and geopolitics. Fiscal policy responses and technological innovation are especially important parts of the solution. Without action, public pension and health systems will not be sustainable over the long term. The increase in life expectancy and economic welfare that came with the industrial revolution brought with it the seeds of demographic change. This is a demographic double whammy that will have major implications for economic growth, financial stability, and the public purse. With declining fertility rates, populations in some advanced economies did not just grow more slowly; they stagnated or began to shrink. IMF analysis suggests that, if everyone lived three years longer than expected, pension related costs could increase by 50 percent in both advanced and emerging economies. This would heavily affect private and public sector balance sheets and could also undermine financial stability.

Download or read book How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts written by Mr.David Amaglobeli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-27 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the next few decades, the world will experience significant demographic shifts, with material fiscal implications. In many advanced and emerging market economies, aging populations will lead to higher spending on pensions and health care. Moreover, projected population dynamics will adversely affect growth and government revenues. Building on and extending a 2015 IMF Staff Discussion Note by Clements and others, this note presents a simple framework that can assist researchers in quantifying the effects of demographic changes resulting from population aging on government fiscal balances. It includes two country applications of the framework and an associated template. The note addresses several key questions: What are channels through which demographic changes could affect public finances? How can we quantify the fiscal impact of demographic changes? How can we tailor the assessment to country-specific circumstances?

Download or read book Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability written by Juha M. Alho and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-03-13 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.

Download or read book Would Population Aging Change the Output Effects of Fiscal Policy written by Mr.Jiro Honda and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-06-12 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Would population aging affect the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus? Despite the renewed focus on population aging, there are few empirical studies on the output effects of fiscal policy in aging economies. Our study fills this gap by analyzing this issue in OECD countries. We find that, as population ages, the output effects of fiscal spending shocks are weakened. We also find that, while high-debt countries generally face weaker fiscal multipliers, high-debt aging economies face even weaker multipliers. These results point to important policy implications: population aging would call for a larger fiscal stimulus to support aggregate demand during recession and thus require larger fiscal space to allow a wider swing of the fiscal position without creating concerns for fiscal sustainability. Our analysis also suggests that policy measures to promote labor supply could help increase the output effect of fiscal stimulus in aging economies.

Download or read book Fiscal Sustainability and Demographic Change written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effect of demographic change on the labor force and on fiscal revenues is topical in light of potential pension shortfalls. This paper evaluates the effect of demographic changes between 2010 and 2030 on labor force participation and government budgets in the EU-27. Our analysis involves the incorporation of population projections, and an explicit modeling of the supply and demand side of the labor market. Our approach overcomes a key shortcoming of most existing studies that focus only on labor supply when assessing the effects of policy reforms. Ignoring wage reactions greatly understates the increase in fiscal revenues, suggesting that fiscal strain from demographic change might be less severe than currently perceived. Finally, as a policy response to demographic change and worsening fiscal budgets, we simulate the increase in the statutory retirement age. Our policy simulations confirm that raising the statutory retirement age can balance fiscal budgets in the long run.

Download or read book Aging and the Macroeconomy written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-10 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.

Download or read book Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability written by Juha Alho and published by . This book was released on 2014-05-14 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty in demographic forecasting.

Download or read book The Great Demographic Reversal written by Charles Goodhart and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-08 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.

Download or read book Demographic Change and the Fiscal Sustainability of Public Regional Colleges and Universities written by Artemio Cardenas and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the enrollment of students critical to our society economy, and the mission and financial sustainability of most higher education institutions, understanding the relationship between population changes and enrollment is important. A group of institutions that may be the most vulnerable to population changes are four-year regional public institutions. Regional public colleges and universities tend to receive inadequate state support compared to other public peers and have limited options for increasing net tuition revenue. As a result, reductions in the population of potential students could have severe impacts on regional publics and their ability to offer necessary programs or remain fiscally sustainable. This dissertation examines the relationship between cohort changes of full-time equivalent high school graduating cohort (18 year olds) and the outcome variables of institutional undergraduate full-time enrollment and net-tuition revenue. This dissertation first studies non-profit Title IV-eligible institutions of higher education and then focuses specifically on regional public colleges and universities. To study my research questions, I use a panel fixed effects model that controls for state-level time-invariant factors and national trends over time. To determine if using different classifications for regional public institutions changes the results, I use various classifications of regional publics reported in the literature. The results indicate that during the full study period of 2000-2018, there were differences in the enrollment and net tuition revenue responses to cohort changes by public and private institutional types. For public institutions, there was a moderate to strong relationship between the cohort size of 18 year old individuals and both undergraduate full-time equivalent enrollment and net tuition revenue, especially for regional public colleges and universities. For private institutions, the relationship between cohort size and enrollment and net tuition revenue was moderate, with research privates having almost no relationship and baccalaureate privates having a moderate to strong relationship. When using the same estimation for different time periods relating to the great recession (2000-2007, 2008-2010, 2011-2018), the effects on enrollment were similar across time periods and the effects on net tuition revenue were slightly stronger during the 2011-2018 period. Overall, the results indicate that cohort changes matter for all classifications of regional publics. The findings extend upon previous research by exploring a new period of the 2000s and 2010s, two decades characterized as periods of momentous change for higher education. The findings also explore enrollment and net tuition elasticities for new classifications of regional public institutions. Finally, this dissertation's findings help inform future academic, budget, and policy planning decisions at the institution, state, and national levels.

Download or read book The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-07-13 with total page 643 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration finds that the long-term impact of immigration on the wages and employment of native-born workers overall is very small, and that any negative impacts are most likely to be found for prior immigrants or native-born high school dropouts. First-generation immigrants are more costly to governments than are the native-born, but the second generation are among the strongest fiscal and economic contributors in the U.S. This report concludes that immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. More than 40 million people living in the United States were born in other countries, and almost an equal number have at least one foreign-born parent. Together, the first generation (foreign-born) and second generation (children of the foreign-born) comprise almost one in four Americans. It comes as little surprise, then, that many U.S. residents view immigration as a major policy issue facing the nation. Not only does immigration affect the environment in which everyone lives, learns, and works, but it also interacts with nearly every policy area of concern, from jobs and the economy, education, and health care, to federal, state, and local government budgets. The changing patterns of immigration and the evolving consequences for American society, institutions, and the economy continue to fuel public policy debate that plays out at the national, state, and local levels. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration assesses the impact of dynamic immigration processes on economic and fiscal outcomes for the United States, a major destination of world population movements. This report will be a fundamental resource for policy makers and law makers at the federal, state, and local levels but extends to the general public, nongovernmental organizations, the business community, educational institutions, and the research community.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy and Long Term Growth written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-20 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.

Download or read book Financial Sustainability of Pension Systems written by Stefania Amalia Jimon and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-05-31 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sustainability of public pension systems has become an important aspect for governments and institutions worldwide. This book addresses the multiple elements that influence the sustainability of pension systems with a special focus on central and eastern European countries. Supported by the results of econometric empirical studies, the authors discuss and analyse areas like social economy versus capitalist economy, globalization versus glocalization, population aging versus birth and fertility, emigration versus immigration, early retirement versus prolongation versus professional activity, the sustainability of public pension systems versus the adequacy of benefits provided, public pension systems compared to private pension funds and taxation of salary incomes versus subsidization of state social insurance.

Download or read book Finance Development June 2020 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-06-01 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance & Development, June 2020

Download or read book The Economics of Sustainable Food written by Nicoletta Batini and published by Island Press. This book was released on 2021-06-08 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economics of Sustainable Food details the true cost of food for people and the planet. It illustrates how to transform our broken system, alleviating its severe financial and human burden. The key is smart macroeconomic policy that moves us toward methods that protect the environment like regenerative land and sea farming, low-impact urban farming, and alternative protein farming, and toward healthy diets. The book's multidisciplinary team of authors lay out detailed fiscal and trade policies, as well as structural reforms, to achieve those goals. Chapters discuss strategies to make food production sustainable, nutritious, and fair, ranging from taxes and spending to education, labor market, health care, and pension reforms, alongside regulation in cases where market incentives are unlikely to work or to work fast enough. The authors carefully consider the different needs of more and less advanced economies, balancing economic development and sustainability goals. Case studies showcase successful strategies from around the world, such as taxing foods with a high carbon footprint, financing ecosystems mapping and conservation to meet scientific targets for healthy biomes permanency, subsidizing sustainable land and sea farming, reforming health systems to move away from sick care to preventive, nutrition-based care, and providing schools with matching funds to purchase local organic produce.--Amazon.

Download or read book Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth written by Mr.James Daniel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-08-17 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pamphlet (which updates the 1995 Guidelines for Fiscal Adjustment) presents the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment, and focuses on the role that sound government finances play in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Structured around five practical questions—when to adjust, how to assess the fiscal position, what makes for successful adjustment, how to carry out adjustment, and which institutions can help—it covers topics such as tax policies, debt sustainability, fiscal responsibility laws, and transparency.

Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.