Download or read book IMF Staff Papers Volume 49 No 1 written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-04-18 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents details of a symposium on forecasting performance I organized under the auspices of the IMF Staff Papers. The assumption that the forecaster's goal is to do as well as possible in predicting the actual outcome is sometimes questionable. ln the context of private sector forecasts, this is because the incentives for forecasters may induce them to herd rather than to reveal their true forecasts. Public sector forecasts may also be distorted, although for different reasons. Forecasts associated with IMF programs, for example, are often the result of negotiations between the IMF staff and the country authorities and are perhaps more accurately viewed as goals, or targets, rather than pure forecasts. The standard theory of time series forecasting involves a variety of components including the choice of an information set, the choice of a cost function, and the evaluation of forecasts in terms of the average costs of the forecast errors. It is generally acknowledged that by including more relevant information in the information set, one should be able to produce better forecasts.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers Volume 49 No 2 written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-07-11 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores sources of the output collapse in Russia during transition. A modified growth-accounting framework is developed that takes into account changes in factor utilization that are typical of the transition process. The results indicate that declines in factor inputs and productivity were both important determinants of the output fall. The paper analyzes the behavior of real commodity prices over the 1862–1999 progress. It also examines whether average stocks of health and education are converging across countries, and calculates the speed of their convergence using data from 84 countries for 1970–90.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers Volume 49 No 3 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2002-09-23 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay during 1975–98. Cointegration analysis and error correction modeling are used to research two issues: (i) whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises; and (ii) whether crises lead to structural breaks in the relation between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability is found. The paper also analyzes inflation targeting in the context of the IMF-supported adjustment programs.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers Volume 49 No 3 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-09-23 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay during 1975–98. Cointegration analysis and error correction modeling are used to research two issues: (i) whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises; and (ii) whether crises lead to structural breaks in the relation between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability is found. The paper also analyzes inflation targeting in the context of the IMF-supported adjustment programs.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-11-04 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reports for uncovered interest parity (UIP) using daily data for 23 developing and developed countries during the crisis-strewn 1990s. UIP is a classic topic of international finance, a critical building block of most theoretical models, and a dismal empirical failure. UIP states that the interest differential is, on average, equal to the ex post exchange rate change. UIP may work differently for countries in crisis, whose exchange and interest rates both display considerably more volatility. This volatility raises the stakes for financial markets and central banks; it also may provide a more statistically powerful test for the UIP hypothesis. Policy-exploitable deviations from UIP are, therefore, a necessary condition for an interest rate defense. There is a considerable amount of heterogeneity in the results, which differ wildly by country.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1966-01-01 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Foreword to the first issue: “Among the responsibilities of the International Monetary Fund, as set forth in the Articles of Agreement, is the obligation to fact as a center for the collection and exchange of information on monetary and financial problems,’ and thereby to facilitate ‘the preparation of studies designed to assist members in developing policies which further the purposes of the Fund.’ The publications of the Fund are one way in which this responsibility is discharged. “Through the publication of Staff Papers, the Fund is making available some of the work of members of its staff. The Fund believes that these papers will be found helpful by government officials, by professional economists, and by others concerned with monetary and financial problems. Much of what is now presented is quite provisional. On some international monetary problems, final and definitive views are scarcely to be expected in the near future, and several alternative, or even conflicting, approaches may profitably be explored. The views presented in these papers are not, therefore, to be interpreted as necessarily indicating the position of the Executive Board or of the officials of the Fund.”
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1950-01-01 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights various problems and policies related to latent inflation. Disappointment will undoubtedly be widespread if, after 10 years of inflation control, latent inflation is permitted to become active and there is a considerable rise in prices. It is not unlikely that some governments will feel they simply cannot accept such a policy. However, the prospect of wiping out or working off latent inflation in any moderate period is very slight. There is every reason to deal with the latent inflation as far as possible by absorbing it through taxation and by measures to reduce liquidity. At the same time, with increased output it should be possible to work off part of the latent inflation. Even if it becomes generally recognized that all or most of such inflation cannot be wiped out or worked off, its immediate activation may be unwise. At some stage soon, governments must face the difficulties presented by latent inflation and recognize that a comprehensive program for dealing with it must be put into effect. Unless such programs are adopted, there can be no great confidence that international payments problems can be solved simply by imposing more rigorous and more extensive controls.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 1987-01-01 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1975-01-01 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a survey of some major issues of incomes policy rather than an evaluation of individual countries' policies. It seeks to highlight and explain the changing emphasis of such policies in the three periods when they were widely adopted. After the War, incomes policies were implemented in several European countries, in the context of scarcities of goods and shortage of foreign exchange. Policies involving a considerable element of compulsion were then associated with other restrictions, such as direction of labor and rationing. At current high rates of inflation and of unemployment, there is growing recognition of the threat that inflation poses to political and economic institutions. Although the recent results of incomes policy have not been striking, present circumstances may be more conducive for success. Experience suggests that incomes policy may be most effective in restraining wage and price increases under conditions of less than full employment.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1987 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An earlier version of this paper was presented to a conference on the topic “Is the Business Cycle Obsolete?” organized by the Social Science Research Council and held in London, England, on April 3–7, 1967.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers Volume 46 No 1 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-03-15 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This economic journal contains theoretical and empirical analyses of varous macroeconomic issues. The studies are prepapred by IMF research staff or consultants. Subjects covered inclulde balance of payments and exchange rates, monetary systems and policies, public finances, international trade, economic growth, and some sectoral analyses. The last issue of the year contains an index to the volume. Approximately 200 pages in each issue.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1957-01-01 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this paper is to bring monetary events, monetary data, and monetary problems within the framework of income analysis. The study tries to bridge gaps between: the views widely held on the relation between financial policies and payments questions; and the analytical tools used to explain payments developments. The failure to accommodate monetary factors in the analysis probably becomes most evident when questions are raised concerning the effects of specified monetary changes on income or on the balance of payments. The tools used in the economic analysis of situations are necessarily simplifications of a more general economic theory—simplifications which bring into focus the factors that seem most important in the classes of situation studied. The decision to treat domestic credit expansion as an autonomous variable is dictated by the purposes of the analysis. As statistically measured, credit expansion is a net concept, the difference between credit outstanding at the end and at the beginning of a period. Part of the repayments that occur during a period may be caused by new loans granted during this or a preceding period.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers Volume 43 No 1 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-01-01 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper extends a standard growth model and obtains consistent panel data estimates of the growth retarding effects of military spending via its adverse impact on capital formation and resource allocation. Simulation experiments suggest that a substantial long-term “peace dividend”—in the form of higher capacity output—may result from markedly lower military expenditure levels achieved in most regions during the late 1980s, and the further military spending cuts that would be possible if global peace could be secured.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1959-01-01 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes the connection between the need for financial statistics as an aid to monetary and financial policy. The essential unifying element between statistics and policy is, of course, theory—a coherent set of assumptions regarding the behavior of the economy. These assumptions will indicate how the economy is expected to respond to changes of particular variables on which policy action concentrates. The accounts of the money and banking and financial system can provide a large part of the required financing statistics in a highly reliable form. In all economies a large part of borrowing and lending is indirect. Among the financial institutions, the banking system stands out, not merely because of its relative magnitude but because of its ability to create its own liabilities. Both banks and life insurance companies grant credit; that is not where the difference lies. A simple model of the economy can be built on the basis of injections of income that can be observed from available statistics.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1951-01-01 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses that the governments of forty-nine countries have accepted the Articles of Agreement of the IMF. They have accepted the Agreement on their own behalf and in respect of all their colonies, overseas territories, all territories under their protection, suzerainty, or authority and all territories in respect of which they exercise a mandate. Although the concept of a fixed par value and of rates of exchange based on it is of fundamental importance under the Articles of Agreement, provision is also made for the retention, adaptation and introduction of multiple currency practices in certain circumstances. Courts are frequently called upon to decide at what rate of exchange one currency shall be translated into another. The courts of many countries have been faced, both before and after the coming into force of the IMF Agreement, with the problem whether they should recognize the effect of the exchange control regulations of other countries.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1979-01-01 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, a general equilibrium model of a small open economy is constructed that reproduces the pattern of price, wage, and exchange rate behavior stressed by the “vicious circle” view in the case where the primary source of disturbances in the economy is monetary. The paper also undertakes a dynamic analysis of the issue of policy effectiveness and relates the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy to the speed of price and wage adjustment, the degree of monetary accommodation, and the openness of the economy. Finally, a policy that allows a country to escape from an inflationary spiral without undergoing a prolonged period of unemployment is proposed. The validity of this policy proposal relies heavily on the assumption that capital markets are highly integrated. With integrated capital markets, a policy of fiscal stimulus is shown to lead to an appreciation of the exchange rate, a reduction in the rate of inflation of wages and prices, and a temporary increase in output and employment. This policy, combined with an appropriate degree of monetary constraint, is shown to be capable, in theory, of breaking a wage-price-exchange rate spiral.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1974-01-01 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, various policy instruments at the disposal of national governments for dealing with the problem of disruptive international capital flows or, more generally, the problem of temporary and reversible payments imbalances, are passed in review. The instruments examined include: separate (dual) exchange markets for capital and current transactions; taxes and subsidies affecting capital transactions or income from capital; official intervention in forward exchange markets; monetary or interest rate policies (including the fiscal-monetary mix); official financing or use of reserves; and floating unitary exchange rates and wider margins. Attention is focused on the device of dual exchange markets, which is evaluated in comparison with each of the other approaches from the standpoint of allocative effects, scope, enforceability, flexibility, and so on. Dual markets, if conducted on appropriate lines, are found to compare favourably overall with most of the other policies, except for floating unitary rates. The paper closes with a suggestion for a system of dual exchange markets with floating rates (subject to appropriate official intervention) on both markets.
