Download or read book How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private Sector Forecasts written by and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts. Further, neither central banks' provision of policy rate path projections nor their choice of policy rate assumption used in their macroeconomic projections appear to matter much for private-sector forecast disagreement'--Abstract, p. ii.
Download or read book How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private Sector Forecasts written by Monika Jain and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forward Guidance by Inflation targeting Central Banks written by Michael Woodford and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the value of central-bank communication about likely future policy, with particular reference to the regular publication of projections for the future path of the policy rate, as with the Riksbank's publication of the repo rate path. It first discusses why publication of a projected interest-rate path represents a natural and desirable evolution of inflation-forecast targeting procedures, and the conditions under which the assumptions about future policy underlying such projections will be intertemporally consistent. It then discusses evidence on the extent to which central-bank statements influence private-sector interest-rate expectations. Particular attention is given to the potential use of forward guidance as an additional tool of policy when an executive lower bound for the policy rate is reached, and alternative approaches to forward guidance in this context are compared, including the recent adoption of quantitative "thresholds" for unemployment and inflation expectations by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The potential role of a nominal GDP level target within an inflation-targeting regime is also considered.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions written by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.
Download or read book Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Spring 2012 written by Herman Royer Professor of Political Economy David H Romer and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2012-08-31 with total page 423 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Brookings Papers on Economic Activity" (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues. Contents - Democratic Change in the Arab World, Past and Present Eric Chaney (Harvard University) - Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession James Stock (Harvard University) and Mark Watson (Princeton University) - Macroeconomic Effects of FOMC Forward Guidance Jeffrey Campbell, Charles Evans, Jonas Fisher, and Alejandro Justiniano (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) - Is the Debt Overhang Holding Back Consumption? Karen Dynan (Brookings Institution) - The Euro's Three Crises Jay Shambaugh (Georgetown University) - Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy J. Bradford DeLong (University of California-Berkeley) and Lawrence Summers (Harvard University )
Download or read book Can Forward Guidance Influence Market Expectations Text Mining Approach written by Shintaro Suda and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The forward guidance provided by central banks is regarded as an essential new monetary policy tool which influences market expectations under the recent low interest rates. This research investigates whether U.S. forward guidance shapes market expectations by using the assets' price formation after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The forward guidance is communicated to market participants and released on the official Federal Reserve Board (FRB) website through textual data or the press conferences by Chair of the FRB. Therefore, when we evaluate the forward guidance, we apply the text mining framework which is developing rapidly. In this paper, we evaluate the statements and minutes that the FRB released after the FOMC meetings, using an improved version of the text mining model based on previous researches, such as Hansen and McMahon(2016) and Jagadeesh and Wu(2015). As a result of this improvement, the model which is designed specifically for FOMC analysis has a higher explanatory power to the macroeconomic statistics. Next, we investigate the relationship between the forward guidance evaluated by our text mining model and the assets' price formation based on Schmeling and Wagner(2016). We show the forward guidance influences the assets' price formation (market expectation), in agreement with the transmission mechanism of the forward guidance shown in the previous studies. Especially, the forward guidance on employment and inflation that is so important as to be called dual mandate in monetary policy in the United States has been found to have a significant influence on investors' behavior.
Download or read book Asset Prices and Monetary Policy written by John Y. Campbell and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-11-15 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.
Download or read book Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low Income and Other Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-23 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
Download or read book How Do Central Banks Talk written by Alan S. Blinder and published by Centre for Economic Policy Research. This book was released on 2001 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Not long ago, secrecy was the byword in central banking circles, but now the unmistakable trend is towards greater openness and transparency. This, the third Geneva Report on the World Economy, describes and evaluates some of the changes in how central banks talk to the markets, to the press, and to the public. The report first assesses the case for transparency ? defined as providing sufficient information for the public to understand the policy regime ? and concludes that it is very strong, based on both policy effectiveness and democratic accountability. It then examines what should be the content of communication and argues that central banks ought to spell out their long-run objectives and methods. It then investigates the link between the decision-making process and central bank communication, drawing a distinction between individualistic and collegial committees. The report concludes with a review of the communications strategies of some of the main central banks.
Download or read book The Quiet Revolution written by Alan S. Blinder and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2008-10-01 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although little noticed, the face of central banking has changed significantly over the past ten to fifteen years, says the author of this enlightening book. Alan S. Blinder, a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve System and member of President Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, shows that the changes, though quiet, have been sufficiently profound to constitute a revolution in central banking. Blinder considers three of the most significant aspects of the revolution. The first is the shift toward transparency: whereas central bankers once believed in secrecy and even mystery, greater openness is now considered a virtue. The second is the transition from monetary policy decisions made by single individuals to decisions made by committees. The third change is a profoundly different attitude toward the markets, from that of stern schoolmarm to one of listener. With keenness and balance, the author examines the origins of these changes and their pros and cons.
Download or read book The Inflation Targeting Debate written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking written by David G. Mayes and published by Oxford Handbooks. This book was released on 2019-03-15 with total page 809 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The Handbook reflects the state of the art in the theory and practice of central banking. It covers all the essential areas that have come under scrutiny since the global financial crisis of 2007-9"--
Download or read book Central Banking in Latin America written by Mr.Luis Ignacio Jácome and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-03-17 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a brief historical journey of central banking in Latin America to shed light on the debate about monetary policy in the post-global financial crisis period. The paper distinguishes three periods in Latin America’s central bank history: the early years, when central banks endorsed the gold standard and coped with the collapse of this monetary system; a second period, in which central banks turned into development banks under the aegis of governments at the expense of increasing inflation; and the “golden years,” when central banks succeeded in preserving price stability in an environment of political independence. The paper concludes by cautioning against overburdening central banks in Latin America with multiple mandates as this could end up undermining their hard-won monetary policy credibility.
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Download or read book Issues in the Governance of Central Banks written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report by the Central Bank Governance Group presents information intended to help decision-makers set up governance arrangements that are most suitable for their own circumstances. The report draws on a large body of information on the design and operation of central banks that the BIS has brought together since it initiated work on central bank governance in the early 1990s. The need to deal with chronic inflation in the 1970s and 1980s prompted the identification of price stability as a formal central bank objective and led to a significant reworking of governance arrangements. The current global financial crisis could have equally important implications for central banks, particularly with respect to their role in fostering financial stability. Although it is too early to know how central banking will change as a result, the report takes an important first step in identifying governance questions that the crisis poses.
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic and Institutional Transparency written by Jens Forssbaeck and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2014-09-01 with total page 619 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the term 'transparency' has emerged as one of the most popular and keenly-touted concepts around. In the economic-political debate, the principle of transparency is often advocated as a prerequisite for accountability, legitimacy, policy efficiency, and good governance, as well as a universal remedy against corruption, corporate and political scandals, financial crises, and a host of other problems. But transparency is more than a mere catch-phrase. Increased transparency is a bearing ideal behind regulatory reform in many areas, including financial reporting and banking regulation. Individual governments as well as multilateral bodies have launched broad-based initiatives to enhance transparency in both economic and other policy domains. Parallel to these developments, the concept of transparency has seeped its way into academic research in a wide range of social science disciplines, including the economic sciences. This increased importance of transparency in economics and business studies has called for a reference work that surveys existing research on transparency and explores its meaning and significance in different areas. The Oxford Handbook of Economic and Institutional Transparency is such a reference. Comprised of authoritative yet accessible contributions by leading scholars, this Handbook addresses questions such as: What is transparency? What is the rationale for transparency? What are the determinants and the effects of transparency? And is transparency always beneficial, or can it also be detrimental (if so, when)? The chapters are presented in three sections that correspond to three broad themes. The first section addresses transparency in different areas of economic policy. The second section covers institutional transparency and explores the role of transparency in market integration and regulation. Finally, the third section focuses on corporate transparency. Taken together, this volume offers an up-to-date account of existing work on and approaches to transparency in economic research, discusses open questions, and provides guidance for future research, all from a blend of disciplinary perspectives.
