Download or read book How can Korea Boost Potential Output to Ensure Continued Income Convergence written by Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-03 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Korea’s rapid growth has slowed in recent years, suggesting lower potential growth. This paper uses an array of techniques, including statistical filters, a multivariate model and the production function, to estimate Korea’s potential growth. The main finding is that trend growth has fallen from around 43⁄4 percent during 2000-07 to around 31⁄4 -31⁄2 percent by 2011-12. Absent reforms, it is projected to fall further to around 2 percent by 2025, primarily due to declining working-age population. However, Korea’s potential growth can be maintained at a higher level by putting in place a comprehensive structural reform agenda, including increased female and youth labor force participation, liberalization of product and labor market regulation. Staff simulations suggest that such reforms could lift potential growth by around 11⁄4 percentage point over the next decade, maintaining potential growth at around 31⁄4 percent, counteracting the effect of population aging, and enabling Korea to continue to converge to income levels of the United States.
Download or read book China s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach written by Min Zhu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-27 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.
Download or read book How can Korea Boost Potential Output to Ensure Continued Income Convergence written by Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-03 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Korea’s rapid growth has slowed in recent years, suggesting lower potential growth. This paper uses an array of techniques, including statistical filters, a multivariate model and the production function, to estimate Korea’s potential growth. The main finding is that trend growth has fallen from around 43⁄4 percent during 2000-07 to around 31⁄4 -31⁄2 percent by 2011-12. Absent reforms, it is projected to fall further to around 2 percent by 2025, primarily due to declining working-age population. However, Korea’s potential growth can be maintained at a higher level by putting in place a comprehensive structural reform agenda, including increased female and youth labor force participation, liberalization of product and labor market regulation. Staff simulations suggest that such reforms could lift potential growth by around 11⁄4 percentage point over the next decade, maintaining potential growth at around 31⁄4 percent, counteracting the effect of population aging, and enabling Korea to continue to converge to income levels of the United States.
Download or read book A New Strategy for Korea s Fiscal Policy in a Low Growth Environment written by Ms.Edda Zoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-24 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adverse demographics and other structural weaknesses impinge on Korea’s long-term fiscal outlook and potential growth. Moreover, inadequate social protection is creating poverty and dampening consumption. The paper presents projections of Korea’s fiscal outlook, using new estimates of potential growth obtained with a novel multivariate filter. It shows that keeping fiscal revenues-to-GDP constant would result in an explosive public debt dynamic in the long term. Then, through simulations of the Flexible System of Global Models, the paper analyzes policies to preserve fiscal sustainability, while boosting potential growth and social protection. It concludes that with greater revenue mobilization, Korea can stabilize debt-to-GDP well below “dangerous” levels. Policies to address Korea’s challenges include higher targeted transfers to the most vulnerable and fiscal measures to support female labor force participation and employment, accompanied by product and labor market reforms.
Download or read book Republic of Korea written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-02-13 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues chapter outlines a strategy to facilitate this and navigate the more challenging monetary environment, involving enhanced communication of policy interest rate intentions and inflation-forecast targeting. The reduction in the inflation target by a percentage point to 2 percent in January 2016 weakened the nominal anchor. Monetary policy can play a role rebuilding the credibility of the anchor more rapidly through the adoption of inflation-forecast targeting. This strengthening of the monetary policy framework involves enhancing communications. An effective, credible monetary policy cannot address all macroeconomic challenges facing Korea. Rather, it can foster robust growth with low inflation, providing a stable and predictable environment that allows other policies to work more effectively. These other policies play a complementary role. Fiscal policy can reinforce the effectiveness of monetary policy, as illustrated by model scenarios. Structural policies can also support monetary policy by, for example, boosting potential growth.
Download or read book Korea s Growth Prospects Overcoming Demographics and COVID 19 written by Mr. Andrew J Swiston and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-26 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Korea’s economy has leaped to high-income status thanks to several decades of sustained high growth. However, population aging and shifts in global demand provide headwinds for future growth and Korea now faces the effects of COVID-19 on economic activity. This paper asseses the expected drag on potential growth from these factors and discusses policies that could provide offsetting upward momentum by facilitating structural transformation. We find that potential output growth slowed to about 21⁄2 percent before the COVID-19 pandemic and would have fallen to 2 percent by 2030, mainly due to demographic factors. Moreover, there is a possibility of scarring from the COVID-19 shock as adjustment frictions from structural rigidities interact with shifts in demand and supply patterns, lowering investment and labor force participation. At the same time, industry-level analysis suggests ample scope to raise productivity, especially in services where productivity gains have lagged. Addressing these rigidities could offset a large proportion of the expected downward pressure on potential output.
Download or read book Economic Development Of Korea written by Chuk Kyo Kim and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2019-03-06 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this book is to provide a systematic and policy-focused analysis of Korea's development performance from a historical perspective. The book begins with post-war reconstruction efforts and extends to recent developments in the Korean economy. Through a comprehensive analysis of Korea's development performance over the last six decades, the book examines in detail how development strategies and policies evolved over time, what were their consequences and underlying factors, and what lessons can be drawn from the Korean experience. A wide range of issues are discussed, including the role of government, capital accumulation, growth and structural change, industrial development and concentration, economic liberalization, human resource and technology development, social development and income distribution. The important features of the Korean development model are highlighted to draw lessons from the Korean experience.
Download or read book Strategies for Reforming Korea s Labor Market to Foster Growth written by Mai Dao and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-25 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While the Korean unemployment rates are currently among the lowest in OECD countries, the labor market duality and the underemployment in some segments of the population are important labor market challenges, and factors contributing to lower potential growth. The paper shows the benefits of comprehensive policy reforms aimed at increasing labor force participation and youth employment and reducing duality are likely to be considerable in the medium term.
Download or read book Korea s Challenges Ahead Lessons from Japan s Experience written by Ms.Edda Zoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-18 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper draws out the parallels between Korea and Japan in terms of demographics, potential growth, balance sheets, asset prices and inflation. Korea’s demographic trends seem to track Japan’s with a lag of about 20 years. Low productivity in the service sector and labor market duality are common to both countries and need to be addressed with structural reforms. While Korea’s corporate balance sheets are stronger than Japan’s in the early 1990s, Korea needs to progress with the restructuring of nonviable firms to avoid the adverse consequences of delayed balance-sheet repair that Japan experienced. Given its strong fiscal balance sheet position, Korea can afford using fiscal policy actively to incentivize corporate restructuring and structural reforms and cushion their possible short-term adverse impact. Korea can prevent bubbles in asset prices that were at the origin of Japan’s initial crisis with the continued use of macroprudential policies. Although Korea does not appear to be headed toward deflation, new econometric analysis presented in the paper suggests that aging will exert a downward drag on its inflation going forward.
Download or read book Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance Initial Considerations for the Fund written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-14 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural policies have become a prominent feature of today’s macroeconomic policy discussion. For many countries, lackluster economic growth and high unemployment cloud the outlook. With fewer traditional policy options, policymakers are increasingly focused on the complementary role of structural policies in promoting more durable job-rich growth. In particular, the G20 has emphasized the essential role of structural reforms in ensuring strong, sustainable and balanced growth. Against this backdrop, the 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) called for further work to enhance the Fund’s ability to selectively provide more expert analysis and advice on structural issues, particularly where there is broad interest among member countries. The purpose of this paper is to engage the Board on staff’s post-TSR work toward strengthening the Fund’s capacity to analyze and, where relevant, offer policy advice on macro-relevant structural issues.
Download or read book Research Bulletin June 2014 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-12 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Articles in the June 2014 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin look at “The Rise and Fall of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics” (Joong Shik Kang and Jay C. Shambaugh) and “The Two Sides of the Same Coin?: Rebalancing and Inclusive Growth in China” (Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Xin Wang). The Q&A looks at “Seven Questions on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Andrew Berg, Luisa Charry, Rafael A. Portillo, and Jan Vleck). This issue of the Research Bulletin includes updated listings of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Readers can also find information on free access to a featured article from “IMF Economic Review.”
Download or read book Women Work and Economic Growth written by Ms.Kalpana Kochhar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-15 with total page 479 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Women make up a little over half of the world’s population, but their contribution to measured economic activity and growth is far below its potential. Despite significant progress in recent decades, labor markets across the world remain divided along gender lines, and progress toward gender equality seems to have stalled. The challenges of growth, job creation, and inclusion are closely intertwined. This volume brings together key research by IMF economists on issues related to gender and macroeconomics. In addition to providing policy prescriptions and case studies from IMF member countries, the chapters also look at the gender gap from an economic point of view.
Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys Korea 2022 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2022-09-19 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sound health management and supportive policies helped Korea emerge swiftly from the pandemic. The recovery is set to continue as pandemic-era restrictions on contact-intensive services are shelved, despite the Russia-Ukraine war raising inflation and highlighting the need to increase supply chain resilience.
Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys Korea 2018 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2018-06-20 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth picked up in 2017, but reforms are needed to sustain Korea's convergence toward the income levels in the most advanced countries. Its labour productivity is 46% below the top half of OECD countries, reflecting problems in the service sector. In addition, productivity in small ...
Download or read book World Economic Outlook April 2018 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-17 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report describes the world economic outlook as of April 2018, projecting that advanced economies will continue to expand above their potential growth rates before decelerating, while growth in emerging markets in developing economies will rise before leveling off. It details global prospects and policies, including risks to the forecast, and essential determinants of long-term economic growth: labor force participation in advanced economies, the declining share of manufacturing jobs globally and in advanced economies, and the process through which innovative activity and technological knowledge spread across national borders.
Download or read book The Growth Report written by Commission on Growth and Development and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2008-07-23 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The result of two years work by 19 experienced policymakers and two Nobel prize-winning economists, 'The Growth Report' is the most complete analysis to date of the ingredients which, if used in the right country-specific recipe, can deliver growth and help lift populations out of poverty.
Download or read book Korea s Paradigm Shift for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth A Proposal written by Yangkyoon Byeon and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-20 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Korea is facing mounting economic challenges. Productivity growth has been on a trend decline amid demographic headwinds, while the societal demand for inclusive growth has been on a steep rise. Furthermore, the government-led unbalanced growth model—which served Korea well in the past—has become less effective and politically palatable in recent years. As such, Korea needs a major paradigm shift to embark on a new sustainable and inclusive growth path. But policy response has been modest at best with no major reforms being implemented over the past two decades. We propose a paradigm shift in Korea’s economic framework, involving a simultaneous big push for greater economic freedom and stronger social protection within the parameters set by long-run fiscal sustainability. We also provide a detailed account of structural reforms to boost economic freedom and sustainable funding plans for stronger social protection.
