Download or read book High Frequency Statistical Arbitrage with Kalman Filter and Markov Chain Monte Carlo written by Han Xu and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical arbitrage, or sometimes called pairs trading, is an investment strategy which exploits the historical price relationships between two or several assets and profits from relative mispricing. It has a long history in hedge fund industry and variates of this kind of strategies are still profitable nowadays. The idea is simple and the source of the profit has support from fundamentals in economics and pricing theories. However, there are still many difficulties in implementing and testing such strategies in real life, which include how to select pairs, how to estimate hedge ratio, when to enter, when to exit and etc. Due to its proprietary nature, there is very few literature on this subject. This thesis is an attempt to demystify statistical arbitrage in high-frequency settings, using freely available data of Chinese commodity futures. This thesis introduces and discusses the existing research done on this subject. Also, with the help of advanced statistical inference approaches for treating time series, this thesis proposed a new model which generalizes the entire process of creating a profitable statistical arbitrage trading strategy for a given market. Several different approaches are implemented and their simulated performances in the Chinese commodity future market are compared horizontally. Unlike much other existing literature, transaction costs and market frictions have been considered thoroughly in order to make the research result more meaningful. Empirical results show that our new model delivers very competitive performance in online hedge ratio estimation.
Download or read book Markov Chain Monte Carlo written by W. S. Kendall and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2005 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) originated in statistical physics, but has spilled over into various application areas, leading to a corresponding variety of techniques and methods. That variety stimulates new ideas and developments from many different places, and there is much to be gained from cross-fertilization. This book presents five expository essays by leaders in the field, drawing from perspectives in physics, statistics and genetics, and showing how different aspects of MCMC come to the fore in different contexts. The essays derive from tutorial lectures at an interdisciplinary program at the Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Singapore, which exploited the exciting ways in which MCMC spreads across different disciplines.
Download or read book Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice written by Arnaud Doucet and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 590 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monte Carlo methods are revolutionizing the on-line analysis of data in many fileds. They have made it possible to solve numerically many complex, non-standard problems that were previously intractable. This book presents the first comprehensive treatment of these techniques.
Download or read book Statistical Arbitrage written by Andrew Pole and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-07 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While statistical arbitrage has faced some tough times?as markets experienced dramatic changes in dynamics beginning in 2000?new developments in algorithmic trading have allowed it to rise from the ashes of that fire. Based on the results of author Andrew Pole?s own research and experience running a statistical arbitrage hedge fund for eight years?in partnership with a group whose own history stretches back to the dawn of what was first called pairs trading?this unique guide provides detailed insights into the nuances of a proven investment strategy. Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Statistical Arbitrage contains comprehensive analysis that will appeal to both investors looking for an overview of this discipline, as well as quants looking for critical insights into modeling, risk management, and implementation of the strategy.
Download or read book Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulations and Their Statistical Analysis written by Bernd A Berg and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2004-10-01 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book teaches modern Markov chain Monte Carlo (MC) simulation techniques step by step. The material should be accessible to advanced undergraduate students and is suitable for a course. It ranges from elementary statistics concepts (the theory behind MC simulations), through conventional Metropolis and heat bath algorithms, autocorrelations and the analysis of the performance of MC algorithms, to advanced topics including the multicanonical approach, cluster algorithms and parallel computing. Therefore, it is also of interest to researchers in the field. The book relates the theory directly to Web-based computer code. This allows readers to get quickly started with their own simulations and to verify many numerical examples easily. The present code is in Fortran 77, for which compilers are freely available. The principles taught are important for users of other programming languages, like C or C++.
Download or read book Quantitative Trading written by Xin Guo and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-01-06 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first part of this book discusses institutions and mechanisms of algorithmic trading, market microstructure, high-frequency data and stylized facts, time and event aggregation, order book dynamics, trading strategies and algorithms, transaction costs, market impact and execution strategies, risk analysis, and management. The second part covers market impact models, network models, multi-asset trading, machine learning techniques, and nonlinear filtering. The third part discusses electronic market making, liquidity, systemic risk, recent developments and debates on the subject.
Download or read book Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulations and Their Statistical Analysis written by Bernd A. Berg and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2004 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book teaches modern Markov chain Monte Carlo (MC) simulation techniques step by step. The material should be accessible to advanced undergraduate students and is suitable for a course. It ranges from elementary statistics concepts (the theory behind MC simulations), through conventional Metropolis and heat bath algorithms, autocorrelations and the analysis of the performance of MC algorithms, to advanced topics including the multicanonical approach, cluster algorithms and parallel computing. Therefore, it is also of interest to researchers in the field. The book relates the theory directly to Web-based computer code. This allows readers to get quickly started with their own simulations and to verify many numerical examples easily. The present code is in Fortran 77, for which compilers are freely available. The principles taught are important for users of other programming languages, like C or C++.
Download or read book Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice written by W.R. Gilks and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1995-12-01 with total page 505 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a family study of breast cancer, epidemiologists in Southern California increase the power for detecting a gene-environment interaction. In Gambia, a study helps a vaccination program reduce the incidence of Hepatitis B carriage. Archaeologists in Austria place a Bronze Age site in its true temporal location on the calendar scale. And in France,
Download or read book Monte Carlo Statistical Methods written by Christian Robert and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We have sold 4300 copies worldwide of the first edition (1999). This new edition contains five completely new chapters covering new developments.
Download or read book Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo written by Steve Brooks and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-05-10 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since their popularization in the 1990s, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have revolutionized statistical computing and have had an especially profound impact on the practice of Bayesian statistics. Furthermore, MCMC methods have enabled the development and use of intricate models in an astonishing array of disciplines as diverse as fisherie
Download or read book Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities Between Commodity Futures and Commodity Currency Futures written by Jan-Philipp Weber and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis introduces two algorithmic statistical arbitrage trading strategies based on the fixed hedge ratio of the Engle-Granger cointegration regression and the daily forward-looking hedge ratio of the Kalman filter. Both trading strategies have the objective to exploit short-term deviations from the stochastic long-term equilibrium between country-specific commodity currency futures and commodity futures of Australia, Canada, New Zealand and South Africa based on daily futures prices in the time period from 2005 until 2013. The empirical results suggest that the cointegration relationship between commodity currency futures and commodity futures is highly unstable and switches between a non-cointegrated and a cointegrated regime over time. The error correction models show that commodity futures are weakly exogenous and that commodity currency futures mainly react to short-term deviations from the long-term equilibrium. In addition, the Kalman filter reveals that the pair-specific hedge ratios are highly sensitive over time. The thesis demonstrates that both trading strategies are suitable to exploit statistical arbitrage opportunities based on different combinations between the trading threshold and convergence target. However, the profitability of both trading strategies declined out-of-sample owed to the regime switches in the cointegration relationship and the smaller size of the price anomalies. Further research should focus on the time-varying properties of the hedge ratios and the causes for the regime switches in the cointegration relationship including the implementation of non-linear, respectively regime switching models. Also the pair-specific holdings of the portfolios could be optimised and the performance of the trading strategies tested on high frequency data.
Download or read book Monte Carlo Methods written by Neal Noah Madras and published by American Mathematical Soc.. This book was released on 2000 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains the proceedings of the Workshop on Monte Carlo Methods held at The Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences (Toronto, 1998). The workshop brought together researchers in physics, statistics, and probability. The papers in this volume - of the invited speakers and contributors to the poster session - represent the interdisciplinary emphasis of the conference. Monte Carlo methods have been used intensively in many branches of scientific inquiry. Markov chain methods have been at the forefront of much of this work, serving as the basis of many numerical studies in statistical physics and related areas since the Metropolis algorithm was introduced in 1953. Statisticians and theoretical computer scientists have used these methods in recent years, working on different fundamental research questions, yet using similar Monte Carlo methodology. This volume focuses on Monte Carlo methods that appear to have wide applicability and emphasizes new methods, practical applications and theoretical analysis. It will be of interest to researchers and graduate students who study and/or use Monte Carlo methods in areas of probability, statistics, theoretical physics, or computer science.
Download or read book Markov Chain Monte Carlo written by Dani Gamerman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2006-05-10 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While there have been few theoretical contributions on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the past decade, current understanding and application of MCMC to the solution of inference problems has increased by leaps and bounds. Incorporating changes in theory and highlighting new applications, Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Stochastic Simul
Download or read book Advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods written by Faming Liang and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-05 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are now an indispensable tool in scientific computing. This book discusses recent developments of MCMC methods with an emphasis on those making use of past sample information during simulations. The application examples are drawn from diverse fields such as bioinformatics, machine learning, social science, combinatorial optimization, and computational physics. Key Features: Expanded coverage of the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo and dynamic weighting algorithms that are essentially immune to local trap problems. A detailed discussion of the Monte Carlo Metropolis-Hastings algorithm that can be used for sampling from distributions with intractable normalizing constants. Up-to-date accounts of recent developments of the Gibbs sampler. Comprehensive overviews of the population-based MCMC algorithms and the MCMC algorithms with adaptive proposals. This book can be used as a textbook or a reference book for a one-semester graduate course in statistics, computational biology, engineering, and computer sciences. Applied or theoretical researchers will also find this book beneficial.
Download or read book Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Nonlinear Discrete time Filtering written by Marcelo G. S. Bruno and published by Morgan & Claypool Publishers. This book was released on 2013 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In these notes, we introduce particle filtering as a recursive importance sampling method that approximates the minimum-mean-square-error (MMSE) estimate of a sequence of hidden state vectors in scenarios where the joint probability distribution of the states and the observations is non-Gaussian and, therefore, closed-form analytical expressions for the MMSE estimate are generally unavailable. We begin the notes with a review of Bayesian approaches to static (i.e., time-invariant) parameter estimation. In the sequel, we describe the solution to the problem of sequential state estimation in linear, Gaussian dynamic models, which corresponds to the well-known Kalman (or Kalman-Bucy) filter. Finally, we move to the general nonlinear, non-Gaussian stochastic filtering problem and present particle filtering as a sequential Monte Carlo approach to solve that problem in a statistically optimal way. We review several techniques to improve the performance of particle filters, including importance function optimization, particle resampling, Markov Chain Monte Carlo move steps, auxiliary particle filtering, and regularized particle filtering. We also discuss Rao-Blackwellized particle filtering as a technique that is particularly well-suited for many relevant applications such as fault detection and inertial navigation. Finally, we conclude the notes with a discussion on the emerging topic of distributed particle filtering using multiple processors located at remote nodes in a sensor network. Throughout the notes, we often assume a more general framework than in most introductory textbooks by allowing either the observation model or the hidden state dynamic model to include unknown parameters. In a fully Bayesian fashion, we treat those unknown parameters also as random variables. Using suitable dynamic conjugate priors, that approach can be applied then to perform joint state and parameter estimation.
Download or read book An Introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo written by Nicolas Chopin and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-10-01 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a general introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters. These methods have become a staple for the sequential analysis of data in such diverse fields as signal processing, epidemiology, machine learning, population ecology, quantitative finance, and robotics. The coverage is comprehensive, ranging from the underlying theory to computational implementation, methodology, and diverse applications in various areas of science. This is achieved by describing SMC algorithms as particular cases of a general framework, which involves concepts such as Feynman-Kac distributions, and tools such as importance sampling and resampling. This general framework is used consistently throughout the book. Extensive coverage is provided on sequential learning (filtering, smoothing) of state-space (hidden Markov) models, as this remains an important application of SMC methods. More recent applications, such as parameter estimation of these models (through e.g. particle Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques) and the simulation of challenging probability distributions (in e.g. Bayesian inference or rare-event problems), are also discussed. The book may be used either as a graduate text on Sequential Monte Carlo methods and state-space modeling, or as a general reference work on the area. Each chapter includes a set of exercises for self-study, a comprehensive bibliography, and a “Python corner,” which discusses the practical implementation of the methods covered. In addition, the book comes with an open source Python library, which implements all the algorithms described in the book, and contains all the programs that were used to perform the numerical experiments.
Download or read book Monte Carlo Strategies in Scientific Computing written by Jun S. Liu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an up-to-date treatment of the Monte Carlo method and develops a common framework under which various Monte Carlo techniques can be "standardized" and compared. It can be used as a textbook for a graduate-level course on Monte Carlo methods.
