Download or read book Herd Behavior and Fat Tails in Financial Markets written by Makoto Nirei and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper demonstrates that a generic herd behavior model generates a fat-tailed distribution of traders' aggregate actions. We consider a simultaneous-move game of traders who infer other traders' private information on the value of assets by observing their actions and decide whether to buy the asset or not. The number of buying actions in a Bayesian Nash equilibrium is characterized by a sum of a binomial process by introducing a fictitious tatonnement. Under a broad class of distributions for the private information, we show that the aggregate actions follow a power-law distribution with an exponential truncation. The empirical distribution of the daily returns of Samp;P 500 stocks is fitted by the model prediction, when the aggregate actions are translated into price movements either by an empirical volume-price impact function or by a market-maker who sets the price by incorporating the available information. This model nests the benchmark herd behavior model and the recent models of critical phenomena in the network of traders. The latter showed that the aggregate actions follow a power-law tailed distribution when the connectivity of networked traders is set at a critical level. In this context, we provide an economic reason why at all the rational herding behavior exhibits criticality in a general setting. Suppose that a good private information leads a trader to buy, whereas the other traders do not buy despite their observation of the action. Then their inactions reveal their private information partially. The total impact of the action on the revealed information is thus of order 1/N, where N is the total number of traders, if the private information is equally informative across the traders. When this is the case, the mean impact of the initial action on the other actions is roughly equal to one. The tatonnement triggered by the initial action becomes a martingale, in which the distribution of the total number of buying actions during the tatonnement exhibits a power-law tail. We further show that, when the static game is repeated over time, the triggering action almost surely occurs and the mean impact of the action in the chain reaction evolves toward the critical level. This implies that the rational learning of traders self-organizes their beliefs to the critical state at which a power-law clustering of actions emerges.
Download or read book Herd Behavior and Aggregate Fluctuations in Financial Markets written by Rama Cont and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a simple model of a stock market where a random communication structure between agents gives rise to a heavy tails in the distribution of stock price variations in the form of an exponentially truncated power-law, similar to distributions observed in recent empirical studies of high frequency market data. Our model provides a link between two well-known market phenomena: the heavy tails observed in the distribution of stock market returns on one hand and 'herding' behavior in financial markets on the other hand. In particular, our study suggests a relation between the excess kurtosis observed in asset returns, the market order flow and the tendency of market participants to imitate each other.
Download or read book Herd Behavior in Financial Markets written by Sushil Bikhchandani and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Fat Tails and their Un Happy Endings written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The correlation bias refers to the fact that claim subordination in the capital structure of the firm influences claim holders’ preferred degree of asset correlation in portfolios held by the firm. Using the copula capital structure model, it is shown that the correlation bias shifts shareholder preferences towards highly correlated assets, making financial institutions more prone to fail and increasing systemic risk given interconnectedness in the financial system. The implications for systemic risk and prudential regulation are assessed under the prism of Basel III, and potential solutions involving changes to the prudential framework and corporate governance are suggested.
Download or read book Herd Behavior in Financial Markets written by Antonio Guarino and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study herd behavior in a laboratory financial market with financial market professionals. We compare two treatments, one in which the price adjusts to the order flow so that herding should never occur, and one in which event uncertainty makes herding possible. In the first treatment, subjects herd seldom, in accordance with both the theory and previous experimental evidence on student subjects. A proportion of subjects, however, engage in contrarianism, something not accounted for by the theory. In the second treatment, the proportion of herding decisions increases, but not as much as theory suggests; moreover, contrarianism disappears altogether.
Download or read book Herd Behavior in Financial Markets written by Marco Cipriani and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study herd behavior in a laboratory financial market with financial market professionals. We compare two treatments, one in which the price adjusts to the order flow so that herding should never occur, and one in which event uncertainty makes herding possible. In the first treatment, subjects herd seldom, in accordance with both the theory and previous experimental evidence on student subjects. A proportion of subjects, however, engage in contrarianism, something not accounted for by the theory. In the second treatment, the proportion of herding decisions increases, but not as much as theory suggests; moreover, contrarianism disappears altogether.
Download or read book Fat Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions written by Svetlozar T. Rachev and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-09-15 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While mainstream financial theories and applications assume that asset returns are normally distributed, overwhelming empirical evidence shows otherwise. Yet many professionals don’t appreciate the highly statistical models that take this empirical evidence into consideration. Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions examines this dilemma and offers readers a less technical look at how portfolio selection, risk management, and option pricing modeling should and can be undertaken when the assumption of a non-normal distribution for asset returns is violated. Topics covered in this comprehensive book include an extensive discussion of probability distributions, estimating probability distributions, portfolio selection, alternative risk measures, and much more. Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions provides a bridge between the highly technical theory of statistical distributional analysis, stochastic processes, and econometrics of financial returns and real-world risk management and investments.
Download or read book Herd Behavior in Financial Markets written by Sushil Bikhchandani and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers often express concern that herding by financial market participants destabilizes markets and increases the fragility of the financial system. This paper provides an overview of the recent theoretical and empirical research on herd behavior in financial markets. It addresses the following questions: What precisely do we mean by herding? What could be the causes of herd behavior? What success have existing studies had in identifying such behavior? And what effect does herding have on financial markets?
Download or read book Rumors in Financial Markets written by Mark Schindler and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-04-04 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On the trading floor, all action is based on news, therefore rumors in financial markets are an everyday phenomenon. Rumors are the oldest mass medium in the world and their nature is still difficult to grasp. Scientifically, not much is known about rumors, especially in the financial markets, where their consequences can have real money consequences. Rumors in Financial Markets provides a fresh insight to the topic, combining the theory of Behavioral Finance with that of Experimental Finance--a new and innovative scientific method which observes real decision makers in a controlled, clearly structured environment. Using the results from surveys and experiments, the author argues that rumors in the context of financial markets are built on three cornerstones: Finance, Psychology and Sociology. The book provides insights into how rumors evolve, spread and are traded on and provides explanations as to why volatility rockets, strong price movements, herding behavior for example, occur for apparently no good reason.
Download or read book Handbook of Financial Markets Dynamics and Evolution written by Thorsten Hens and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The models of portfolio selection and asset price dynamics in this volume seek to explain the market dynamics of asset prices. Presenting a range of analytical, empirical, and numerical techniques as well as several different modeling approaches, the authors depict the state of debate on the market selection hypothesis. By explicitly assuming the heterogeneity of investors, they present models that are descriptive and normative as well, making the volume useful for both finance theorists and financial practitioners. Explains the market dynamics of asset prices, offering insights about asset management approaches Assumes a heterogeneity of investors that yields descriptive and normative models of portfolio selections and asset pricing dynamics
Download or read book Irrationality in financial markets written by Nelle Plotkin and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets Volume 2 written by Eva R. Porras and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-31 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on extending the models and theories (from a mathematical/statistical point of view) which were introduced in the first volume to a more technical level. Where volume I provided an introduction to the mathematics of bubbles and contagion, volume II digs far more deeply and widely into the modeling aspects.
Download or read book Essays on Information Aggregation Herding and Volatility in Financial Markets written by Vladyslav Yuriyvich Sushko and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Beauty Contests and Fat Tails in Financial Markets written by Makoto Nirei and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study seeks to explain the emergence of fat-tailed distributions of trading volumes and asset returns in financial markets. We use a rational expectations form of the herding model. In the model, traders infer other traders' private signals regarding the value of an asset by observing their aggregate buying actions. The rational expectations equilibrium outcome entails an upward sloping demand curve. This is because the information contained in others' signals is more encouraging than is reflected in the incremental price. That is, there are strategic complementarities in informed traders' buying actions. In this environment, we show that equilibrium trading volumes and asset returns follow fat-tailed distributions without making any parametric assumptions on private signals. Specifically, we demonstrate that the trading volume follows a power-law distribution when the number of traders is large and the signal is noisy. Furthermore, we provide simulation results to show that our model successfully reproduces the observed distributions of daily stock returns.
Download or read book Artificial Intelligence in Financial Markets written by Christian L. Dunis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-21 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As technology advancement has increased, so to have computational applications for forecasting, modelling and trading financial markets and information, and practitioners are finding ever more complex solutions to financial challenges. Neural networking is a highly effective, trainable algorithmic approach which emulates certain aspects of human brain functions, and is used extensively in financial forecasting allowing for quick investment decision making. This book presents the most cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI)/neural networking applications for markets, assets and other areas of finance. Split into four sections, the book first explores time series analysis for forecasting and trading across a range of assets, including derivatives, exchange traded funds, debt and equity instruments. This section will focus on pattern recognition, market timing models, forecasting and trading of financial time series. Section II provides insights into macro and microeconomics and how AI techniques could be used to better understand and predict economic variables. Section III focuses on corporate finance and credit analysis providing an insight into corporate structures and credit, and establishing a relationship between financial statement analysis and the influence of various financial scenarios. Section IV focuses on portfolio management, exploring applications for portfolio theory, asset allocation and optimization. This book also provides some of the latest research in the field of artificial intelligence and finance, and provides in-depth analysis and highly applicable tools and techniques for practitioners and researchers in this field.
Download or read book The Katrina Effect written by William M. Taylor and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2015-08-27 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On August 29th 2005, the headwaters of Hurricane Katrina's storm-surge arrived at New Orleans, the levees broke and the city was inundated. Perhaps no other disaster of the 21st century has so captured the global media's attention and featured in the 'imagination of disaster' like Katrina. The Katrina Effect charts the important ethical territory that underscores thinking about disaster and the built environment globally. Given the unfolding of recent events, disasters are acquiring original and complex meanings. This is partly because of the global expansion and technological interaction of urban societies in which the multiple and varied impacts of disasters are recognized. These meanings pose significant new problems for civil society: what becomes of public accountability, egalitarianism and other democratic ideals in the face of catastrophe? This collection of critical essays assesses the storm's global impact on overlapping urban, social and political imaginaries. Given the coincidence and 'perfect storm' of environmental, geo-political and economic challenges facing liberal democratic societies, communities will come under increasing strain to preserve and restore social fabric while affording all citizens equal opportunity in determining the forms that future cities and communities will take. Today, 21st century economic neo-liberalism, global warming or recent theories of 'urban vulnerability' and resilience provide key new contexts for understanding the meaning and legacy of Katrina.
Download or read book The Complex Dynamics of Economic Interaction written by Mauro Gallegati and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economy is examined by the authors as a complex interactive system. The emphasis is on the direct interaction between agents rather than on the indirect and autonomous interaction through the market mechanism. Contributions from economists and physicists emphasise the consequences for aggregate behaviour of the interaction between agents with limited rationality. Models of financial markets which exhibit many of the stylised facts of empirical markets such as bubbles, herd behaviour and long memory are presented. This includes contributions on bargaining, buyer-seller relations, the evolution of economic networks and several aspects of macro-economic behaviour. This book will be of interest to all those interested in the foundations of collective social and economic behaviour and in particular, to those concerned with the dynamics of market behaviour and recent applications of physics to economics.
