Download or read book Heavy Tailed Distributions in Disaster Analysis written by V. Pisarenko and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-07-20 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods described in this book avoid such pitfalls. Seismic disasters are studied, primarily thanks to the availability of an ample statistical database. New approaches are presented to seismic risk estimation and forecasting the damage caused by earthquakes, ranging from typical, moderate events to very rare, extreme disasters. Analysis of these latter events is based on the limit theorems of probability and the duality of the generalized Pareto distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. It is shown that the parameter most widely used to estimate seismic risk – Mmax, the maximum possible earthquake value – is potentially non-robust. Robust analogues of this parameter are suggested and calculated for some seismic catalogues. Trends in the costs inferred by damage from natural disasters as related to changing social and economic situations are examined for different regions. The results obtained argue for sustainable development, whereas entirely different, incorrect conclusions can be drawn if the specific properties of the heavy-tailed distribution and change in completeness of data on natural hazards are neglected. This pioneering work is directed at risk assessment specialists in general, seismologists, administrators and all those interested in natural disasters and their impact on society.

Download or read book Statistical Analysis of Natural Disasters and Related Losses written by V.F. Pisarenko and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-09-11 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of disaster statistics and disaster occurrence is a complicated interdisciplinary field involving the interplay of new theoretical findings from several scientific fields like mathematics, physics, and computer science. Statistical studies on the mode of occurrence of natural disasters largely rely on fundamental findings in the statistics of rare events, which were derived in the 20th century. With regard to natural disasters, it is not so much the fact that the importance of this problem for mankind was recognized during the last third of the 20th century - the myths one encounters in ancient civilizations show that the problem of disasters has always been recognized - rather, it is the fact that mankind now possesses the necessary theoretical and practical tools to effectively study natural disasters, which in turn supports effective, major practical measures to minimize their impact. All the above factors have resulted in considerable progress in natural disaster research. Substantial accrued material on natural disasters and the use of advanced recording techniques have opened new doors for empirical analysis. However, despite the considerable progress made, the situation is still far from ideal. Sufficiently complete catalogs of events are still not available for many types of disasters, and the methodological and even terminological bases of research need to be further developed and standardized. The present monograph summarizes recent advances in the field of disaster statistics, primarily focusing on the occurrence of disasters that can be described by distributions with heavy tails. These disasters typically occur on a very broad range of scales, the rare greatest events being capable of causing losses comparable to the total losses of all smaller disasters of the same type. Audience: This SpringerBrief will be a valuable resource for those working in the fields of natural disaster research, risk assessment and loss mitigation at regional and federal governing bodies and in the insurance business, as well as for a broad range of readers interested in problems concerning natural disasters and their effects on human life.

Download or read book Handbook Of Heavy tailed Distributions In Asset Management And Risk Management written by Michele Leonardo Bianchi and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2019-03-08 with total page 598 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of heavy-tailed distributions allows researchers to represent phenomena that occasionally exhibit very large deviations from the mean. The dynamics underlying these phenomena is an interesting theoretical subject, but the study of their statistical properties is in itself a very useful endeavor from the point of view of managing assets and controlling risk. In this book, the authors are primarily concerned with the statistical properties of heavy-tailed distributions and with the processes that exhibit jumps. A detailed overview with a Matlab implementation of heavy-tailed models applied in asset management and risk managements is presented. The book is not intended as a theoretical treatise on probability or statistics, but as a tool to understand the main concepts regarding heavy-tailed random variables and processes as applied to real-world applications in finance. Accordingly, the authors review approaches and methodologies whose realization will be useful for developing new methods for forecasting of financial variables where extreme events are not treated as anomalies, but as intrinsic parts of the economic process.

Download or read book Multi Fractal Traffic and Anomaly Detection in Computer Communications written by Ming Li and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-01-09 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive theory of mono- and multi-fractal traffic, including the basics of long-range dependent time series and 1/f noise, ergodicity and predictability of traffic, traffic modeling and simulation, stationarity tests of traffic, traffic measurement and the anomaly detection of traffic in communications networks. Proving that mono-fractal LRD time series is ergodic, the book exhibits that LRD traffic is stationary. The author shows that the stationarity of multi-fractal traffic relies on observation time scales, and proposes multi-fractional generalized Cauchy processes and modified multi-fractional Gaussian noise. The book also establishes a set of guidelines for determining the record length of traffic in measurement. Moreover, it presents an approach of traffic simulation, as well as the anomaly detection of traffic under distributed-denial-of service attacks. Scholars and graduates studying network traffic in computer science will find the book beneficial.

Download or read book The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails written by Jayakrishnan Nair and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-06-09 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Heavy tails –extreme events or values more common than expected –emerge everywhere: the economy, natural events, and social and information networks are just a few examples. Yet after decades of progress, they are still treated as mysterious, surprising, and even controversial, primarily because the necessary mathematical models and statistical methods are not widely known. This book, for the first time, provides a rigorous introduction to heavy-tailed distributions accessible to anyone who knows elementary probability. It tackles and tames the zoo of terminology for models and properties, demystifying topics such as the generalized central limit theorem and regular variation. It tracks the natural emergence of heavy-tailed distributions from a wide variety of general processes, building intuition. And it reveals the controversy surrounding heavy tails to be the result of flawed statistics, then equips readers to identify and estimate with confidence. Over 100 exercises complete this engaging package.

Download or read book Heavy Tailed Distributions and Robustness in Economics and Finance written by Marat Ibragimov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-05-23 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on general frameworks for modeling heavy-tailed distributions in economics, finance, econometrics, statistics, risk management and insurance. A central theme is that of (non-)robustness, i.e., the fact that the presence of heavy tails can either reinforce or reverse the implications of a number of models in these fields, depending on the degree of heavy-tailed ness. These results motivate the development and applications of robust inference approaches under heavy tails, heterogeneity and dependence in observations. Several recently developed robust inference approaches are discussed and illustrated, together with applications.

Download or read book Sustainable Value Chain Management written by Dr François Maon and published by Gower Publishing, Ltd.. This book was released on 2013-11-28 with total page 718 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The way organizations manage their value chain has changed dramatically over the past decade. Today, organizations take account of economic issues, but they also adopt a broader perspective of their purpose including social and environmental issues. Yet despite its global spread, sustainable value chain management remains an uncertain and poorly defined ambition, with few absolutes. The social and environmental issues that organizations should address can easily be interpreted as including virtually everything. Current literature on the topic seeks to understand the effects and management of initiatives dealing with diversity, human rights, safety, philanthropy, community, and environment. However, the penetration of social and environmental considerations into value chain management is described as ‘desire lacking reality’ thereby making the idea a patchy success. The objective of this research anthology is to investigate different angles of sustainable value chain management. The book’s 27 chapters fill holes and explore new fields in this area.

Download or read book Machine Learning and the City written by Silvio Carta and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-05-17 with total page 676 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine Learning and the City Explore the applications of machine learning and artificial intelligence to the built environment Machine Learning and the City: Applications in Architecture and Urban Design delivers a robust exploration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) in the context of the built environment. Relevant contributions from leading scholars in their respective fields describe the ideas and techniques that underpin ML and AI, how to begin using ML and AI in urban design, and the likely impact of ML and AI on the future of city design and planning. Each section couples theoretical and technical chapters, authoritative references, and concrete examples and projects that illustrate the efficacy and power of machine learning in urban design. The book also includes: An introduction to the probabilistic logic that underpins machine learning Comprehensive explorations of the applications of machine learning and artificial intelligence to urban environments Practical discussions of the consequences of applied machine learning and the future of urban design Perfect for designers approaching machine learning and AI for the first time, Machine Learning and the City: Applications in Architecture and Urban Design will also earn a place in the libraries of urban planners and engineers involved in urban design.

Download or read book Building Safer Communities written by Urbano Fra Paleo and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2009 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of essays, bringing together seventeen contributions from different disciplines, with various, but complementary points of view, to discuss the directions and key components of risk governance. Some of the many issues of interest to risk scholars addressed in this work include the analysis of proactive approaches to the governance of risk from natural hazards; approaches to broaden the scope of public policies related to the management of risks from natural hazards, including emergency and environmental management, community development and spatial planning.

Download or read book Characterizing the Robustness of Science written by Léna Soler and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-23 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mature sciences have been long been characterized in terms of the “successfulness”, “reliability” or “trustworthiness” of their theoretical, experimental or technical accomplishments. Today many philosophers of science talk of “robustness”, often without specifying in a precise way the meaning of this term. This lack of clarity is the cause of frequent misunderstandings, since all these notions, and that of robustness in particular, are connected to fundamental issues, which concern nothing less than the very nature of science and its specificity with respect to other human practices, the nature of rationality and of scientific progress; and science’s claim to be a truth-conducive activity. This book offers for the first time a comprehensive analysis of the problem of robustness, and in general, that of the reliability of science, based on several detailed case studies and on philosophical essays inspired by the so-called practical turn in philosophy of science.

Download or read book Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis written by Dipak K. Dey and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-01-06 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications presents a broad overview of statistical modeling of extreme events along with the most recent methodologies and various applications. The book brings together background material and advanced topics, eliminating the need to sort through the massive amount of literature on the subje

Download or read book Numerical Methods for Reliability and Safety Assessment written by Seifedine Kadry and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-09-30 with total page 807 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers unique insight on structural safety and reliability by combining computational methods that address multiphysics problems, involving multiple equations describing different physical phenomena and multiscale problems, involving discrete sub-problems that together describe important aspects of a system at multiple scales. The book examines a range of engineering domains and problems using dynamic analysis, nonlinear methods, error estimation, finite element analysis and other computational techniques. This book also: · Introduces novel numerical methods · Illustrates new practical applications · Examines recent engineering applications · Presents up-to-date theoretical results · Offers perspective relevant to a wide audience, including teaching faculty/graduate students, researchers and practicing engineers.

Download or read book Extreme Wildfire Events and Disasters written by Fantina Tedim and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-11-22 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme Wildfire Events and Disasters: Root Causes and New Management Strategies highlights the urgent need for new methods to prepare and mitigate the effects of these events. Using a multidisciplinary, socio-ecological approach, the book discusses the roots of the problem, presenting a new, innovative approach to wildfire mitigation based on the operational concept of Fire Smart Territory (FST). Under the guidance of its expert editors, the book highlights new ways to prevent and respond to extreme wildfire events and disasters through sustainable development, thus revealing better management methods and increasing protection of both the natural environment and the vulnerable communities within it. Reveals the complexity of extreme wildfire events and disasters in an accessible, comprehensive and multidisciplinary way Reviews the ground-breaking concept of Fire Smart Territory (FST) which offers an opportunity to reduce wildfire occurrence and severity through measures that promote sustainable development Proposes a new perspective on disaster risk reduction to help researchers, planners and professionals successfully adapt their methods for mitigating current and future issues

Download or read book Fat tailed Distributions written by Roger M. Cooke and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Behavior and Social Computing written by Longbing Cao and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-12-13 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed proceedings of the International Workshops on Behavior and Social Informatics and Computing, BSIC 2013, held as collocated event of IJCAI 2013, in Beijing, China in August 2013 and the International Workshop on Behavior and Social Informatics, BSI 2013, held as satellite workshop of PAKDD 2013, in Gold Coast, Australia, in April 2013. The 23 papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 58 submissions. The papers study a wide range of techniques and methods for behavior/social-oriented analyses including behavioral and social interaction and network, behavioral/social patterns, behavioral/social impacts, the formation of behavioral/social-oriented groups and collective intelligence and behavioral/social intelligence emergence.

Download or read book Proceedings of the 5th China High Resolution Earth Observation Conference CHREOC 2018 written by Liheng Wang and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-03-23 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the proceedings of the 5th China High-resolution Earth Observation Conference (CHREOC). The series conference of China High Resolution Earth Observation has been becoming the influential academic event in the earth detection area, and attracting more and more top experts and industry users of related fields. The CHREOCs focus on the popular topics including military-civilian integration, the One Belt and One Road project, the transformation of scientific research achievements, and it also discusses the new ideas, new technologies, new methods, and new developments. The CHREOCs have effectively promoted high-level institutional mechanisms, technological innovation, and industrial upgrading in the high-resolution earth observation area, and arouse the influence of the national-sponsored major project. All papers in this proceeding are from the 5th CHREOC, and most authors are the researchers and experts participating the state major project CHEOS. The papers are the extraction of research results and reflect the technique level and research direction of the field high-resolution earth observation. All articles have gone through the scientific and strict reviews for several rounds by the experts from the related fields, and therefore reflect the research level and technology innovation of the high-resolution field earth observation. This proceedings will be an informative and valuable reference for both academic research and engineering practice.

Download or read book Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by . This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.