Download or read book Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk informed Decision Making written by M. Drouin and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk informed Decisionmaking Final Report written by M. Drouin and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk informed Decision Making written by M. Drouin and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2013 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This document provides guidance on how to treat uncertainties associated with probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in risk-informed decisionmaking. The objectives of this guidance include fostering an understanding of the uncertainties associated with PRA and their impact on the results of PRA and providing a pragmatic approach to addressing these uncertainties in the context of the decisionmaking.
Download or read book Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk informed Decision Making written by M. Drouin and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated With Pras in Risk informed Decisionmaking written by U.s. Nuclear Regulatory Comion and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2014-05-21 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This document provides guidance on how to treat uncertainties associated with probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in risk-informed decisionmaking. The objectives of this guidance include fostering an understanding of the uncertainties associated with PRA and their impact on the results of PRA and providing a pragmatic approach to addressing these uncertainties in the context of the decisionmaking.
Download or read book Overview of risk informed decision making processes written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2012-10-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors introduce the general concepts, definitions and issues related to the use of Risk-informed decision-making (RIDM). These are structured processes which assist decision-makers when faced with high impact, complex decisions involving multiple objectives and the presence of uncertainty. They aim to ensure that decisions between competing alternatives are taken with an awareness of the risks associated with each option, and that all attributes of a decision are considered in an integrated manner. Motivations for the use of these techniques as a complement to more traditional deterministic approaches to risk assessment are provided. The RIDM processes adopted by NASA and by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission are described in detail, with an analysis of commonalities and differences in approach.
Download or read book Treatment of Uncertainties in Risk based Regulation written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past several years, we have begun to fully appreciate the value of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as a decision support tool. Risk assessment has allowed us to focus on problems of real importance and provided discipline to prioritization processes. Many government agencies now consider risk assessment as a normal and essential element of their decision making. Due to the inherent uncertainty in the results, use of absolute PRA numbers to make specific decisions was not encouraged by risk assessment experts in the past. The current trend, however, is to make more and more use of the absolute numbers and (in some cases) to use them directly to make regulatory decisions. Whether or not we approve of this trend, it will almost certainly continue. Therefore, it is incumbent upon risk assessment experts to provide information to decision-makers that is properly characterized. This characterization should include a clear presentation of the uncertainties involved in the risk estimates. Uncertainty analysis is often considered undesirable by decision-makers, because it muddies up the waters of an other-wise clear cut decision.
Download or read book Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-02-20 with total page 359 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, this book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focused on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge of Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.
Download or read book Uncertainty characterization in risk analysis for decision making practice written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2012-05-01 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This document provides an overview of sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis. For each phase of the risk analysis process (system modeling, hazard identification, estimation of the probability and consequences of accident sequences, risk evaluation), the authors describe and classify the types of uncertainty that can arise. The document provides : a description of the risk assessment process, as used in hazardous industries such as nuclear power and offshore oil and gas extraction ; a classification of sources of uncertainty (both epistemic and aleatory) and a description of techniques for uncertainty representation ; a description of the different steps involved in a Probabilistic Risk Assessement (PRA) or Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), and an analysis of the types of uncertainty that can affect each of these steps ; annexes giving an overview of a number of tools used during probabilistic risk assessment, including the HAZID technique, fault trees and event tree analysis.
Download or read book A Risk Characterization Framework for Decision Making at the Food and Drug Administration written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-06-26 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the responsibility to ensure the safety of food, drugs, and other products, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) faces decisions that may have public-health consequences every day. Often the decisions must be made quickly and on the basis of incomplete information. FDA recognized that collecting and evaluating information on the risks posed by the regulated products in a systematic manner would aid in its decision-making process. Consequently, FDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to develop a conceptual model that could evaluate products or product categories that FDA regulates and provide information on the potential health consequences associated with them. A Risk-Characterization Framework for Decision-Making at the Food and Drug Administration describes the proposed risk-characterization framework that can be used to evaluate, compare, and communicate the public-health consequences of decisions concerning a wide variety of products. The framework presented in this report is intended to complement other risk-based approaches that are in use and under development at FDA, not replace them. It provides a common language for describing potential public-health consequences of decisions, is designed to have wide applicability among all FDA centers, and draws extensively on the well-vetted risk literature to define the relevant health dimensions for decision-making at the FDA. The report illustrates the use of that framework with several case studies, and provides conclusions and recommendations.
Download or read book Dealing with Uncertainty Arising Out of Probabilistic Risk Assessment written by Kenneth A. Solomon and published by RAND Corporation. This book was released on 1983-01-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report addresses one aspect of how probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies should be integrated into the regulatory process. Intended for use by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff, it looks specifically at how uncertainty in risk estimates is to be factored into regulatory decisionmaking. Section II defines "confidence in risk"--a simple measure of the degree to which a goal or regulation is likely to be met. In Section III the authors apply the confidence in risk measure to some selected nonnuclear technologies. Section IV examines some PRAs for the Zion and Indian Point nuclear power plants; compares the estimated risks to proposed safety goals; and applies the confidence in risk measure to the frequency of core melt, and the societal risk in terms of acute or prompt deaths and latent (cancer) deaths. Section V develops some decision rules for dealing with uncertainty. Finally, some recommendations regarding the implementation of the findings are offered.
Download or read book Risk Based Engineering written by Prabhakar V. Varde and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-04-19 with total page 579 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book comprehensively covers the various aspects of risk modeling and analysis in technological contexts. It pursues a systems approach to modeling risk and reliability concerns in engineering, and covers the key concepts of risk analysis and mathematical tools used to assess and account for risk in engineering problems. The relevance of incorporating risk-based structures in design and operations is also stressed, with special emphasis on the human factor and behavioral risks. The book uses the nuclear plant, an extremely complex and high-precision engineering environment, as an example to develop the concepts discussed. The core mechanical, electronic and physical aspects of such a complex system offer an excellent platform for analyzing and creating risk-based models. The book also provides real-time case studies in a separate section to demonstrate the use of this approach. There are many limitations when it comes to applications of risk-based approaches to engineering problems. The book is structured and written in a way that addresses these key gap areas to help optimize the overall methodology. This book serves as a textbook for graduate and advanced undergraduate courses on risk and reliability in engineering. It can also be used outside the classroom for professional development courses aimed at practicing engineers or as an introduction to risk-based engineering for professionals, researchers, and students interested in the field.
Download or read book Safe Enough written by Thomas R. Wellock and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2021-03-23 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the dawn of the Atomic Age, nuclear experts have labored to imagine the unimaginable and prevent it. They confronted a deceptively simple question: When is a reactor “safe enough” to adequately protect the public from catastrophe? Some experts sought a deceptively simple answer: an estimate that the odds of a major accident were, literally, a million to one. Far from simple, this search to quantify accident risk proved to be a tremendously complex and controversial endeavor, one that altered the very notion of safety in nuclear power and beyond. Safe Enough? is the first history to trace these contentious efforts, following the Atomic Energy Commission and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission as their experts experimented with tools to quantify accident risk for use in regulation and to persuade the public of nuclear power’s safety. The intense conflict over the value of risk assessment offers a window on the history of the nuclear safety debate and the beliefs of its advocates and opponents. Across seven decades and the accidents at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima, the quantification of risk has transformed both society’s understanding of the hazards posed by complex technologies and what it takes to make them safe enough.
Download or read book Risk Assessment written by Marvin Rausand and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-03-31 with total page 784 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduces risk assessment with key theories, proven methods, and state-of-the-art applications Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications remains one of the few textbooks to address current risk analysis and risk assessment with an emphasis on the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice—from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. Updated to align with ISO 31000 and other amended standards, this all-new 2nd Edition discusses the main ideas and techniques for assessing risk today. The book begins with an introduction of risk analysis, assessment, and management, and includes a new section on the history of risk analysis. It covers hazards and threats, how to measure and evaluate risk, and risk management. It also adds new sections on risk governance and risk-informed decision making; combining accident theories and criteria for evaluating data sources; and subjective probabilities. The risk assessment process is covered, as are how to establish context; planning and preparing; and identification, analysis, and evaluation of risk. Risk Assessment also offers new coverage of safe job analysis and semi-quantitative methods, and it discusses barrier management and HRA methods for offshore application. Finally, it looks at dynamic risk analysis, security and life-cycle use of risk. Serves as a practical and modern guide to the current applications of risk analysis and assessment, supports key standards, and supplements legislation related to risk analysis Updated and revised to align with ISO 31000 Risk Management and other new standards and includes new chapters on security, dynamic risk analysis, as well as life-cycle use of risk analysis Provides in-depth coverage on hazard identification, methodologically outlining the steps for use of checklists, conducting preliminary hazard analysis, and job safety analysis Presents new coverage on the history of risk analysis, criteria for evaluating data sources, risk-informed decision making, subjective probabilities, semi-quantitative methods, and barrier management Contains more applications and examples, new and revised problems throughout, and detailed appendices that outline key terms and acronyms Supplemented with a book companion website containing Solutions to problems, presentation material and an Instructor Manual Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition is ideal for courses on risk analysis/risk assessment and systems engineering at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference and resource for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who carry out risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.
Download or read book Risk and Safety Analysis of Nuclear Systems written by John C. Lee and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-01-12 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems. The second half of the book covers the safety analysis of nuclear energy systems, an analysis of major accidents and incidents that occurred in commercial nuclear plants, applications of PRA techniques to the safety analysis of nuclear power plants (focusing on a major PRA study for five nuclear power plants), practical PRA examples, and emerging techniques in the structure of dynamic event trees and fault trees that can provide a more realistic representation of complex sequences of events. The book concludes with a discussion on passive safety features of advanced nuclear energy systems under development and approaches taken for risk-informed regulations for nuclear plants.
Download or read book Human Factors and Reliability Engineering for Safety and Security in Critical Infrastructures written by Fabio De Felice and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects a high-quality selection of contemporary research and case studies on the complexity resulting from human/reliability management in industrial plants and critical infrastructures. It includes: Human-error management issues—considering how to reduce human errors as much as possible. Reliability management issues—considering the ability of a system or component to function under certain conditions for a specified period of time. Thus, the book analyses globally the problem regarding the human and reliability management to reduce human errors as much as possible and to ensure safety and security in critical infrastructures. Accidents continue to be the major concern in “critical infrastructures”, and human factors have been proved to be the prime causes to accidents. Clearly, human dynamics are a challenging management function to guarantee reliability, safety and costs reduction in critical infrastructures. The book is enriched by figures, examples and extensive case studies and is a valuable reference resource for those with involved in disaster and emergency planning as well as researchers interested both in theoretical and practical aspects.
Download or read book Selected Topics in Probabilistic Safety Assessment written by Dan Serbanescu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-02-19 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is a structured, comprehensive, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems, such as the nuclear power plants. It is also known as probabilistic risk assessment – PRA. This book presents the theoretical basis to understand the numerous and complex aspects that are covered by PSA and it will help the reader to better understand and to effectively manage risks. The book provides PSA methods and techniques and it includes recommended procedures that are based on the experience of the authors and applicable to different levels and types of PSA that are used for nuclear power plants applications. It can be used as extra reading for PSA courses for practitioners and it provides quantitative risk methodology documentation for PSA.
