Download or read book Growth Expectations Dividend Yields and Future Stock Returns written by Zhi Da and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to the dynamic version of the Gordon growth model, the long-run expected return on stocks, stock yield, is the sum of the dividend yield on stocks plus some weighted average of expected future growth rates in dividends. We construct a measure of stock yield based on sell-side analysts' near-term earnings forecasts that predicts US stock index returns well, with an out-of-sample R-squared that is consistently above 2% at monthly frequency over our sample period. Stock yield also predicts future stock index returns in the US and other G7 countries and returns of US stock portfolios formed by sorting stocks based on firm characteristics, at various horizons. The findings are consistent with a single dominant factor driving expected returns on stocks over different holding periods. That single factor extracted from the cross section of stock yields using the Kelly and Pruitt (2013) partial regressions method predicts stock index returns better. The performance of the Binsbergen and Koijen (2010) latent factor model for forecasting stock returns improves significantly when stock yield is included as an imperfect observation of expected return on stocks. Consistent with folk wisdom, stock returns are more predictable coming out of a recession. Our measure performs as well in predicting stock returns as the implied cost of capital, another common stock yield measure that uses additional information.

Download or read book Growth Expectations Dividend Yield and Future Stocks Returns written by Zhi Da and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stock Market Equilibrium and the Dividend Yield written by Mr.Charles Frederick Kramer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-08-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can fundamentals account for the recent performance of the U.S. stock market? The price/earnings ratio is out of line with historical averages, and the dividend/price ratio has recently reached a historic low. These developments and record levels of inflows into mutual funds have led some to conclude that stock prices are above their fundamental levels. This paper assesses the recent rise in the stock market using a model for the equilibrium dividend/price ratio. While economic variables can account for most of the recent fall in the dividend/price ratio, mutual-fund inflows still have some marginal explanatory power.

Download or read book Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in the Cross Section of Stocks written by Paulo F. Maio and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a generalized conviction that variation in dividend yields is exclusively related to expected returns and not to expected dividend growth - e.g. Cochrane's presidential address (Cochrane (2011)). We show that this pattern, although valid for the aggregate stock market, is not true for portfolios of small and value stocks, where dividend yields are related mainly to future dividend changes. Thus, the variance decomposition associated with aggregate dividend yield has important heterogeneity in the cross-section of equities. Our results are robust to different forecasting horizons, econometric methodology used (long-horizon regressions or first-order VAR), and an alternative decomposition based on excess returns.

Download or read book Stock Return Variation and Expected Dividends written by Peter Andrew Hecht and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kothari and Shanken (1992) argue that stock return variation can, to a large extent, be explained by rational revisions of future dividend expectations. Kothari and Shanken arrive at this conclusion based on the explanatory power of a regression of returns on lagged dividend yield, contemporaneous and future dividend growth rates, and future returns. This regression nests a truncated, first order approximation of the definition of return. Hence, the explanatory power is high by construction and has only minimal economic interpretations. Our reinterpretation has implications for other studies that use future variables to explain past returns. The explanatory variables are difficult to interpret, and these models may misidentify the main source of return variation. By decomposing the regressions, we clarify the roles of the explanatory variables.

Download or read book Dividend Growth Investing written by Joey Thompson and published by Novelty Publishing LLC. This book was released on 2021-03-06 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncover the secret to building a passive income stream and find your path to financial freedom and early retirement through the stock market with the definitive guide to dividend growth investing Do you want to get started with investing and better understand how to make money investing in stocks, but have no idea where to begin? Have you ever tried other investment strategies that not only failed to make you money, but burned a hole in your pocket? Do you want to discover an investment strategy that offers reliable income over a long period of time? In this guide, Joey Thompson shows you how to analyze companies and hands you to powerful stock-picking strategies to achieve predictable returns on your investment over time and grow your wealth, as well as avoiding deadly investing mistakes that most investors make. Here's a small sample of what you're going to learn in Dividend Growth Investing: ● All you need to know about dividend investing and how it really works ● A glossary of all the important terms you absolutely need to know about before getting into dividend investing ● A powerful investment plan that automatically reinvests the income generated from your dividend investments ● Crucial factors that influence dividend payout for companies you need to be aware of ● High performing dividend stocks and how to choose one that is perfect for your needs ● Pitfalls and risks associated with dividend growth investing that "gurus" and financial experts are unwilling to tell you about ● How to mitigate these risks with proven investment strategies ● Steps to help you build your early retirement portfolio and create a long-term income stream ● How to take advantage of tax benefits from dividend investments ● The six absolute commandments of dividend investing ● ...and much, much more! Whether you're a complete beginner to the stock market and have no idea how it works, or you're a seasoned investor looking for proven ways to consistently make profits off dividend growth investing, the insights and practical advice contained in this guide will help you build wealth and improve investment returns.

Download or read book The Magazine of Wall Street written by and published by . This book was released on 1909 with total page 596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Expected Returns and Expected Dividend Growth written by Martin Lettau and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate a consumption-based present value relation that is a function of future dividend growth. Using data on aggregate consumption and measures of the dividend payments from aggregate wealth, we show that changing forecasts of dividend growth make an important contribution to fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, despite the failure of the dividend-price ratio to uncover such variation. In addition, these dividend forecasts are found to covary with changing forecasts of excess stock returns. The variation in expected dividend growth we uncover is positively correlated with changing forecasts of excess returns and occurs at business cycle frequencies, those ranging from one to six years. Because positively correlated fluctuations in expected dividend growth and expected returns have offsetting affects on the log dividend-price ratio, the results imply that both the market risk-premium and expected dividend growth vary considerably more than what can be revealed using the log dividend-price ratio alone as a predictive variable.

Download or read book Dividend Growth Investing written by Clara Robinson and published by Creek Ridge Publishing. This book was released on 2024-04-03 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unlock the power of dividend growth investing for a lifetime of wealth! Are you ready to take control of your financial future? Imagine a world where your investments work tirelessly for you, generating a steady flow of income and growing your wealth, even while you sleep. With the volatility of markets and the unpredictability of economies, securing your financial independence has never been more important. It’s not a question of if, but when you’ll need the resilience and stability that only a well-structured dividend growth investment strategy can provide. Here's a taste of what you can find inside: Unwavering Stability - Explore the unmatched potential of dividend aristocrats and how they anchor your portfolio in every market condition. Crystal-Clear Strategy - Gain precise, actionable guidance that demystifies the process of selecting and investing in top-performing dividend stocks. Financial Empowerment - Break free from financial uncertainties with robust strategies that ensure a growing income stream. Comprehensive Wealth Building - From foundational principles to advanced portfolio management, get equipped with everything you need for financial success. Skill Enhancement - Master the art of identifying and capitalizing on dividend growth opportunities to maximize your investment returns. Peace of Mind - Secure your financial future with strategies that protect and grow your wealth, no matter the economic climate. Simplified Success - A step-by-step guide that transforms complex investment concepts into a straightforward path to wealth accumulation. Envision Your Financial Transformation - Imagine achieving financial freedom and providing for your loved ones with ease. This book is the key to unlocking that reality, guiding you through the turbulent waters of investing with confidence and expertise.

Download or read book Dividend Yields are Equity Risk Premiums written by Michael S. Rozeff and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article presents evidence that dividend yields are directly related to and predict future stock returns: The higher the yield, the higher the stock return. The paper uses the constant dividend growth model and the subsidiary Golden Rule of Accumulation view that real long-term growth equals the real rate of interest in order to show that the dividend yield is directly related to the risk premium. A predictive test shows that dividend yields provide superior predictions of equity risk premiums in terms of lower bias, lower mean square error and lower mean absolute error as compared with the method of using historical realized returns.

Download or read book Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns written by Robert J. Hodrick and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Alternative ways of conducting inference and measurement for long-horizon forecasting are explored with an application to dividend yields as predictors of stock returns. Monte Carlo analysis indicates that the Hansen and Hodrick (1980) procedure is biased at long horizons, but the alternatives perform better. These include an estimator derived under the null hypothesis as in Richardson and Smith (1989), a reformulation of the regression as in Jegadeesh (1990), and a vector autoregression (VAR) as in Campbell and Shiller (1988), Kandel and Stambaugh (1988), and Campbell (1991). The statistical properties of long-horizon statistics generated from the VAR indicate interesting patterns in expected stock returns.

Download or read book Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions written by Sean D. Campbell and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We explore the macro/finance interface in the context of equity markets. In particular, using half a century of Livingston expected business conditions data we characterize directly the impact of expected business conditions on expected excess stock returns. Expected business conditions consistently affect expected excess returns in a statistically and economically significant counter-cyclical fashion: depressed expected business conditions are associated with high expected excess returns. Moreover, inclusion of expected business conditions in otherwisestandard predictive return regressions substantially reduces the explanatory power of the conventional financial predictors, including the dividend yield, default premium, and term premium, while simultaneously increasing R-squared. Expected business conditions retain predictive power even after controlling for an important and recently introduced non-financial predictor, the generalized consumption/wealth ratio, which accords with the view that expected business conditions play a role in asset pricing different from and complementary to that of the consumption/wealth ratio. We argue that time-varying expected business conditions likely capture time-varying risk, while time-varying consumption/wealth may capture time-varying risk aversion"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site

Download or read book Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns written by Eugene F. Fama and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Scientific Stock Speculation written by Charles Henry Dow and published by . This book was released on 1920 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Dividend Growth and Return Predictability written by Gertjan Verdickt and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We re-examine dividend growth and return predictability evidence using 165 years of data from the Brussels Stock Exchange. The conventional wisdom holds that time-varying dividend yield is predominately explained by changes in expected returns and that expected dividend growth is only weakly forecastable. However, we find robust dividend growth predictability evidence in every time period. A lack of dividend smoothing is the most important reason for the disconnect with previous evidence. Furthermore, we find return predictability in the post-World War II period when we adjust the dividend yields for changing index composition, business cycle variation and structural breaks. This is explained by a simultaneous increase in equity duration, induced by an increasing importance of growth stocks.

Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.

Download or read book Dividend Price Ratios and Stock Returns written by Bradford Cornell and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A widely replicated result, using U.S. data, is that dividend-price ratios predict future returns, not future dividend growth. As noted by Cochrane (2011) in his Presidential Address to the American Finance Association, this is evidence of stock return predictability contrary to the original interpretation of the efficient market hypothesis. However, Cornell (2012) argues that the evident predictability may be an artifact of the remarkably stable real growth of the American economy. To further investigate this question, this paper examines the relation between dividend yields, future returns and dividend growth using current international data. It is found that in some countries, dividend-price ratios predict future returns, in other countries they predict future dividend growth, and in still other countries a combination of the two. These heterogeneous findings support the interpretation that the relations between the variables depend on historical circumstances.