Download or read book Group Decision Analysis and Its Application to Combining Opinions written by James V. Zidek and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper is primarily about multi-Bayesian statistical decision theory. Thus the author is deliberately expanding this discussion beyond the realm of merely aggregating opinions. There are a number of reasons for doing so. There may well be situations involving groups of individuals wherein the real goal is merely that of combining degrees of belief concerning statements (hypotheses) about the world. However, opinions in the usual sense of that word would generally incorporate preferences as well. There is even some reason to doubt that degrees of beliefs and preferences (utilizes) can be separately elicited even in a normative setting (Dr. H. Rubin, personal communication). In short, there is some doubt as to whether the aggregation of degrees of belief is a meaningful undertaking. In any case, it would seem that in a significant number if not the majority of situations involving groups of individuals, a joint decision is called for. This joint decision could itself be an aggregate of the individual expressions of degrees of belief. But this recasts the problem into the context of group decision making and redirects our interest towards this latter area.

Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 1126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lists citations with abstracts for aerospace related reports obtained from world wide sources and announces documents that have recently been entered into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database.

Download or read book Consensus Oriented Decision Making written by Tim Hartnett and published by New Society Publishers. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A step-by-step guide to the most efficient and effective method for participatory group decision-making Are you frustrated by that common challenge called group decision-making? Consensus-Oriented Decision-Making can help! Clearly written and well organized, keep this book by your side and refer to it often. Groups you are part of will function better as a result. -- Peggy Holman, author, Engaging Emergence: Turning Upheaval into Opportunity For any group or organization to function effectively, it must be able to make decisions well. Consensus-Oriented Decision-Making is the first book to offer groups (and group facilitators) a clear and efficient path to generating widespread agreement while fostering full participation and true collaboration. Poised to become the new standard for group facilitation, Consensus-Oriented Decision-Making combines: Deep insight into complex group dynamics Effective conflict resolution techniques Powerful communication skills Groups using this simple, step-by-step approach experience increased cohesion and commitment and stronger relationships as a result of their successful cooperation. Incorporating the principles of collaboration, inclusion, empathy, and open-mindedness, the consensus-oriented decision-making (CODM) process encourages shared ownership of group decisions. The method can be used in any group situation, regardless of whether the final decision-making power rests with a single person or team, a vote of members, or unanimity. Business, government, nonprofit, social, and community organizations can all benefit from Consensus-Oriented Decision-Making . Whether you are a designated facilitator or an active participant, understanding this powerful framework will help you contribute to the success of your group through achieving maximum participation and efficiency, a clearer decision-making process, better decisions, and improved group dynamics. Tim Hartnett, PhD, is a group facilitator and mediator who blends extensive knowledge of non-violent communication with insightful understanding of group dynamics and effective techniques for conflict resolution.

Download or read book Theory and Approaches of Group Decision Making with Uncertain Linguistic Expressions written by Hai Wang and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-01-12 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book mainly introduces a series of theory and approaches of group decision-making based on several types of uncertain linguistic expressions and addresses their applications. The book pursues three major objectives: (1) to introduce some techniques to model several types of natural linguistic expressions; (2) to handle these expressions in group decision-making; and (3) to clarify the involved approaches by practical applications. The book is especially valuable for readers to understand how linguistic expressions could be employed and operated to make decisions, and motivates researchers to consider more types of natural linguistic expressions in decision analysis under uncertainties.

Download or read book Large Scale Group Decision Making written by Su-Min Yu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-01-03 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores clustering operations in the context of social networks and consensus-reaching paths that take into account non-cooperative behaviors. This book focuses on the two key issues in large-scale group decision-making: clustering and consensus building. Clustering aims to reduce the dimension of a large group. Consensus reaching requires that the divergent individual opinions of the decision makers converge to the group opinion. This book emphasizes the similarity of opinions and social relationships as important measurement attributes of clustering, which makes it different from traditional clustering methods with single attribute to divide the original large group without requiring a combination of the above two attributes. The proposed consensus models focus on the treatment of non-cooperative behaviors in the consensus-reaching process and explores the influence of trust loss on the consensus-reaching process.The logic behind is as follows: firstly, a clustering algorithm is adopted to reduce the dimension of decision-makers, and then, based on the clusters’ opinions obtained, a consensus-reaching process is carried out to obtain a decision result acceptable to the majority of decision-makers. Graduates and researchers in the fields of management science, computer science, information management, engineering technology, etc., who are interested in large-scale group decision-making and consensus building are potential audience of this book. It helps readers to have a deeper and more comprehensive understanding of clustering analysis and consensus building in large-scale group decision-making.

Download or read book Group Verbal Decision Analysis written by Alexey B. Petrovsky and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-03-14 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes an original approach to solving tasks of individual and collective choice: classification, ranking, and selection of multi-attribute objects. Object representation with multisets allows considering simultaneously numerical and symbolic variables. In group verbal decision analysis, judgments of all participants are taken into account without a compromise between contradictory. Natural language is used to describe problems and objects, formalize knowledge of experts and preferences of decision makers, and explain results. Verbal methods and technologies are more transparent, less laborious for a person, and weakly sensitive to measurement errors. The book also includes examples of applying new tools in real ill-structured high-dimensional choice tasks. It is intended for researchers, managers, consultants, analysts, and developers as well as for teachers and students of applied mathematics, computer science, information processing, engineering, economics, and management.

Download or read book Operational Reliability and Systematic Maintenance written by K. Holmberg and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-01-18 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scientists from four countries cooperated in a reseach effort aimed at the imporvement of operational reliability via innovations in design and testing and systematic maintenance. The scientists had varied backgrounds ranging from mathematic to applied mechanical engineering, and the results fo this effort are documented in this book.

Download or read book Group Decision Making written by Thomas L. Saaty and published by RWS Publications. This book was released on 2013-11-15 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When a group makes a decision, that decision carries a lot more weight than when just one person does it. Think of the founding fathers of the American constitution and how much power and influence their ideas have had in the entire world for more than two hundred years. Also think of gravity, a universal force brought about by an enormous number of minute particles that band together to make a universal law. Together, they create a massive force, a law of nature; alone they can barely be noticed. That is how our minds work by deciding together to create a power that transcends our individuality. Group decision making is a gift and an opportunity to create greater influence through the working together of many minds. This book shows how to use the Analytic Hierarchy Process for hierarchical decision making and the Analytic Network Process for decision making in networks with dependence and feedback in group decision making. Part I discusses the group and the decision and shows the importance of using a structured process, particularly for those high value decisions involving many powerful parties with different interests. It discusses how to facilitate a group decision, combine individual judgments and smooth differences to arrive at a decision that everyone can live with and get behind. Part II discusses the group in planning and how to draw out differences. Part III is about conflict resolution and Part IV is about how to address significant issues that come up in group decision making and shows that it is possible to construct an overall group preference.

Download or read book Consensus in Group Decision Making Under Linguistic Assessments written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Group decision-making is an essential activity is many domains such as financial, engineering, and medical fields. Group decision-making basically solicits opinions from experts and combines these judgments into a coherent group decision. Experts typically express their opinion in many different formats belonging to two categories: quantitative evaluations and qualitative ones. Many times experts cannot express judgment in accurate numerical terms and use linguistic labels or fuzzy preferences. The use of linguistic labels makes expert judgment more reliable and informative for decisionmaking. In this research, a new linguistic label fusion operator has been developed. The operator helps mapping one set of linguistic labels into another. This gives decision makers more freedom to choose their own linguistic preference labels with different granularities and/or associated membership functions. Three new consensus measure methods have been developed for group decision making problem in this research. One is a Markov chain based consensus measure method, the other is order based, and the last one is a similarity based consensus measure approach. Also, in this research, the author extended the concept of Ordered Weighted Average (OWA) into a fuzzy linguistic OWA (FLOWA). This aggregation operator is more detailed and includes more information about the aggregate than existing direct methods. After measuring the current consensus, we provide a method for experts to modify their evaluations to improve the consensus level. A cost based analysis gives the least cost suggestion for this modification, and generates a least cost of group consensus. In addition, in this research I developed an optimization method to maximize two types of consensus under a budget constraint. Finally considering utilization of the consensus provides a practical recommendation to the desired level of consensus, considering its cost benefits.

Download or read book Combination of Evidence in Dempster Shafer Theory written by Kari Sentz and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dempster-Shafer theory offers an alternative to traditional probabilistic theory for the mathematical representation of uncertainty. The significant innovation of this framework is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals. Dempster-Shafer theory does not require an assumption regarding the probability of the individual constituents of the set or interval. This is a potentially valuable tool for the evaluation of risk and reliability in engineering applications when it is not possible to obtain a precise measurement from experiments, or when knowledge is obtained from expert elicitation. An important aspect of this theory is the combination of evidence obtained from multiple sources and the modeling of conflict between them. This report surveys a number of possible combination rules for Dempster-Shafer structures and provides examples of the implementation of these rules for discrete and interval-valued data.

Download or read book The Group Consensus Problem written by Kiduck Chang and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a group consensus problem, there is a group with K greater than or equal to 2 members who are jointly responsible for the aggregation of their opinions. The group may not have a predefined real decision problem. French called the group consensus problem with a predefined real decision problem a group decision problem and the group consensus problem without a real decision problem a text-book problem. Suppose a group with K members are interested in forecasting demands for a commodity for a given time period. Production planning for this commodity depends on demands. Each group member may have his own opinion for demands in the form of probability distribution. In this case the group has a real decision problem in which they should determine the amount of the commodity to be produced. Here the group consensus opinion is a probability distribution for demands obtained from the group members' prior opinions for demands. For example a group of meteorologists are required to give a single forecast for weather without having any real decision problem. This is an example of the text-book problem. Savage suggested that the whole of statistical theory is directly or indirectly aimed at the solution of a version of the text-book problem. The objective of this paper is to give a unified approach for these two problems. In this paper all the group members are assumed to be Bayesians. Keywords: Bayesian decision analysis; Combining expert opinions; Utility functions; and Pareto Optimal decisions.

Download or read book Technical Reports Awareness Circular TRAC written by and published by . This book was released on 1987-08 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Review of the Department of Homeland Security s Approach to Risk Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-10 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The events of September 11, 2001 changed perceptions, rearranged national priorities, and produced significant new government entities, including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) created in 2003. While the principal mission of DHS is to lead efforts to secure the nation against those forces that wish to do harm, the department also has responsibilities in regard to preparation for and response to other hazards and disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and other "natural" disasters. Whether in the context of preparedness, response or recovery from terrorism, illegal entry to the country, or natural disasters, DHS is committed to processes and methods that feature risk assessment as a critical component for making better-informed decisions. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis explores how DHS is building its capabilities in risk analysis to inform decision making. The department uses risk analysis to inform decisions ranging from high-level policy choices to fine-scale protocols that guide the minute-by-minute actions of DHS employees. Although DHS is responsible for mitigating a range of threats, natural disasters, and pandemics, its risk analysis efforts are weighted heavily toward terrorism. In addition to assessing the capability of DHS risk analysis methods to support decision-making, the book evaluates the quality of the current approach to estimating risk and discusses how to improve current risk analysis procedures. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis recommends that DHS continue to build its integrated risk management framework. It also suggests that the department improve the way models are developed and used and follow time-tested scientific practices, among other recommendations.

Download or read book SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering written by Morgan J. Hurley and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-10-07 with total page 3510 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Revised and significantly expanded, the fifth edition of this classic work offers both new and substantially updated information. As the definitive reference on fire protection engineering, this book provides thorough treatment of the current best practices in fire protection engineering and performance-based fire safety. Over 130 eminent fire engineers and researchers contributed chapters to the book, representing universities and professional organizations around the world. It remains the indispensible source for reliable coverage of fire safety engineering fundamentals, fire dynamics, hazard calculations, fire risk analysis, modeling and more. With seventeen new chapters and over 1,800 figures, the this new edition contains: Step-by-step equations that explain engineering calculations Comprehensive revision of the coverage of human behavior in fire, including several new chapters on egress system design, occupant evacuation scenarios, combustion toxicity and data for human behavior analysis Revised fundamental chapters for a stronger sense of context Added chapters on fire protection system selection and design, including selection of fire safety systems, system activation and controls and CO2 extinguishing systems Recent advances in fire resistance design Addition of new chapters on industrial fire protection, including vapor clouds, effects of thermal radiation on people, BLEVEs, dust explosions and gas and vapor explosions New chapters on fire load density, curtain walls, wildland fires and vehicle tunnels Essential reference appendices on conversion factors, thermophysical property data, fuel properties and combustion data, configuration factors and piping properties “Three-volume set; not available separately”

Download or read book Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.

Download or read book Decision Support for Forest Management written by Annika Kangas and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-10-27 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This updated and expanded second edition adds the most recent advances in participatory planning approaches and methods, giving special emphasis to decision support tools usable under uncertainty. The new edition places emphasis on the selection of criteria and creating alternatives in practical multi-criteria decision making problems.

Download or read book Elicitation written by Luis C. Dias and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-16 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.