Download or read book Ground Motion Simulations of Scenario Earthquakes on the Hayward Fault written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We compute ground motions in the San Francisco Bay area for 35 Mw 6.7-7.2 scenario earthquake ruptures involving the Hayward fault. The modeled scenarios vary in rupture length, hypocenter, slip distribution, rupture speed, and rise time. This collaborative effort involves five modeling groups, using different wave propagation codes and domains of various sizes and resolutions, computing long-period (T> 1-2 s) or broadband (T> 0.1 s) synthetic ground motions for overlapping subsets of the suite of scenarios. The simulations incorporate 3-D geologic structure and illustrate the dramatic increase in intensity of shaking for Mw 7.05 ruptures of the entire Hayward fault compared with Mw 6.76 ruptures of the southern two-thirds of the fault. The area subjected to shaking stronger than MMI VII increases from about 10% of the San Francisco Bay urban area in the Mw 6.76 events to more than 40% of the urban area for the Mw 7.05 events. Similarly, combined rupture of the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults in a Mw 7.2 event extends shaking stronger than MMI VII to nearly 50% of the urban area. For a given rupture length, the synthetic ground motions exhibit the greatest sensitivity to the slip distribution and location inside or near the edge of sedimentary basins. The hypocenter also exerts a strong influence on the amplitude of the shaking due to rupture directivity. The synthetic waveforms exhibit a weaker sensitivity to the rupture speed and are relatively insensitive to the rise time. The ground motions from the simulations are generally consistent with Next Generation Attenuation ground-motion prediction models but contain long-period effects, such as rupture directivity and amplification in shallow sedimentary basins that are not fully captured by the ground-motion prediction models.

Download or read book Ground Motion Modeling of Hayward Fault Scenario Earthquakes II written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We simulate long-period (T> 1.0-2.0 s) and broadband (T> 0.1 s) ground motions for 39 scenarios earthquakes (Mw 6.7-7.2) involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. For rupture on the Hayward fault we consider the effects of creep on coseismic slip using two different approaches, both of which reduce the ground motions compared with neglecting the influence of creep. Nevertheless, the scenario earthquakes generate strong shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area with about 50% of the urban area experiencing MMI VII or greater for the magnitude 7.0 scenario events. Long-period simulations of the 2007 Mw 4.18 Oakland and 2007 Mw 4.5 Alum Rock earthquakes show that the USGS Bay Area Velocity Model version 08.3.0 permits simulation of the amplitude and duration of shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area, with the greatest accuracy in the Santa Clara Valley (San Jose area). The ground motions exhibit a strong sensitivity to the rupture length (or magnitude), hypocenter (or rupture directivity), and slip distribution. The ground motions display a much weaker sensitivity to the rise time and rupture speed. Peak velocities, peak accelerations, and spectral accelerations from the synthetic broadband ground motions are, on average, slightly higher than the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) ground-motion prediction equations. We attribute at least some of this difference to the relatively narrow width of the Hayward fault ruptures. The simulations suggest that the Spudich and Chiou (2008) directivity corrections to the NGA relations could be improved by including a dependence on the rupture speed and increasing the areal extent of rupture directivity with period. The simulations also indicate that the NGA relations may under-predict amplification in shallow sedimentary basins.

Download or read book QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTIES IN GROUND MOTION SIMULATIONS FOR SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES ON THE HAYWARD RODGERS CREEK FAULT SYSTEM USING THE USGS 3D VELOCITY MODEL AND REALISTIC PSEUDODYNAMIC RUPTURE MODELS written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 5 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This project seeks to compute ground motions for large (M>6.5) scenario earthquakes on the Hayward Fault using realistic pseudodynamic ruptures, the USGS three-dimensional (3D) velocity model and anelastic finite difference simulations on parallel computers. We will attempt to bound ground motions by performing simulations with suites of stochastic rupture models for a given scenario on a given fault segment. The outcome of this effort will provide the average, spread and range of ground motions that can be expected from likely large earthquake scenarios. The resulting ground motions will be based on first-principles calculations and include the effects of slip heterogeneity, fault geometry and directivity, however, they will be band-limited to relatively low-frequency (

Download or read book Earthquake Scenario Ground Motion Hazard Maps for the San Francisco Bay Region written by John Frederick Schneider and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Ground Motion Simulations written by Lynne Schleiffarth Burks and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Engineers use earthquake ground motions for a variety of reasons, including seismic hazard assessment, calibration of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), and input to nonlinear response history analysis. These analyses require a significant number of ground motions and for some scenarios, such as earthquakes with large magnitudes and short distances, it may be difficult to obtain a sufficient number of ground motion recordings. When sufficient recordings do not exist, engineers modify available recordings using scaling or spectrum matching, or they use ground motion simulations. Ground motion simulations have existed for decades, but recent advances in simulation methods due to improved source characterization and wave propagation, coupled with increased computing power, have increased potential benefits for engineers. But before simulations can be used in engineering applications, simulations must be accessible and consistent with natural observations. This dissertation contributes to the latter issue, and it investigates the application of simulations to specific engineering problems. The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Broadband Platform (BBP) is an open-source software distribution that enables third-party users to simulate ground motions using research code contributed by model developers. Because the BBP allows users to compute their own simulations with little knowledge of the underlying implementation and it ensures that all calculations are reproducible, it is extremely valuable for simulation validation and engineering applications. In this dissertation, the BBP is evaluated as a simulation generation tool from an engineering perspective. Ground motions are simulated to study parameters of engineering interest, such as high-frequency variability, near-fault ground motions, and local site response. Though some parameters need further development, such as site response (which is currently implemented using simple empirical amplification), the BBP proves to be an effective tool for facilitating these types of engineering studies. This dissertation proposes a simulation validation framework based on simple and robust proxies for the response of more complicated structures. We compile a list of proxies with robust empirical models that are insensitive to changes in earthquake scenario and do not rely on extrapolation for rarely observed events. Because predictions of these proxies are reliable under a variety of earthquake events, we can confidently compare them with simulations. The proposed proxies include correlation of epsilon across periods, ratio of maximum to median response across horizontal orientations, and ratio of inelastic to elastic displacement. The validation framework is applied to example simulations and successfully exposes some parameters that need work, such as variability and correlation of spectral acceleration. Finally, this dissertation investigates the application of simulations to response history analysis and fling-step characterization. A 3D nonlinear structural model is analyzed using recordings and simulations with similar elastic response spectra. The structural performance and resulting design decisions are similar, indicating that simulations are effective for response history analysis subject to certain conditions. To investigate fling-step, we extract fling pulses from a large set of simulations. Extracted fling properties such as amplitude and period are then compared to specially-processed recordings and relevant empirical models for surface displacement and pulse period. Reasonably good agreement is found between simulations, recordings, and empirical models. In general, ground motion simulations are found to be an effective alternative or supplement to recordings in several engineering applications. Because simulation methods are still developing, this work is not intended as an evaluation of existing methods, but rather as a development of procedures that can be used in ongoing work.

Download or read book Ground Motion Modeling of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake II written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the ground motions produced by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake making use of the recently developed Song et al. (2008) source model that combines the available geodetic and seismic observations and recently constructed 3D geologic and seismic velocity models. Our estimates of the ground motions for the 1906 earthquake are consistent across five ground-motion modeling groups employing different wave propagation codes and simulation domains. The simulations successfully reproduce the main features of the Boatwright and Bundock (2005) ShakeMap, but tend to over predict the intensity of shaking by 0.1-0.5 modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units. Velocity waveforms at sites throughout the San Francisco Bay Area exhibit characteristics consistent with rupture directivity, local geologic conditions (e.g., sedimentary basins), and the large size of the event (e.g., durations of strong shaking lasting tens of seconds). We also compute ground motions for seven hypothetical scenarios rupturing the same extent of the northern San Andreas fault, considering three additional hypocenters and an additional, random distribution of slip. Rupture directivity exerts the strongest influence on the variations in shaking, although sedimentary basins do consistently contribute to the response in some locations, such as Santa Rosa, Livermore, and San Jose. These scenarios suggest that future large earthquakes on the northern San Andreas fault may subject the current San Francisco Bay urban area to stronger shaking than a repeat of the 1906 earthquake. Ruptures propagating southward towards San Francisco appear to expose more of the urban area to a given intensity level than do ruptures propagating northward.

Download or read book Simulation of Strong Ground Motion from the Loma Prieta Earthquake written by Jeffry Lowell Stevens and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Earthquake Simulations and Ground Motion Prediction for the San Francisco Bay Region written by Ralph J. Archuleta and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Ground Motion Maps that Account for Site Effects Basin Effects Duration of Shaking and Rupture Directivity in the San Francisco Bay Area written by Paul G. Somerville and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Scenario for a Magnitude 7 0 Earthquake on the Hayward Fault written by and published by Earthquake Engineering Research Institute. This book was released on 1996 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stochastic Modeling and Simulation of Near Fault Ground Motions for Performance Based Earthquake Engineering written by Mayssa Dabaghi and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive parameterized stochastic model of near-fault ground motions in two orthogonal horizontal directions is developed. The proposed model uniquely combines several existing and new sub-models to represent major characteristics of recorded near-fault ground motions. These characteristics include near-fault effects of directivity and fling step; temporal and spectral non-stationarity; intensity, duration and frequency content characteristics; directionality of components, as well as the natural variability of motions for a given earthquake and site scenario. By fitting the model to a database of recorded near-fault ground motions with known earthquake source and site characteristics, empirical "observations" of the model parameters are obtained. These observations are used to develop predictive equations for the model parameters in terms of a small number of earthquake source and site characteristics. Functional forms for the predictive equations that are consistent with seismological theory are employed. A site-based simulation procedure that employs the proposed stochastic model and predictive equations is developed to generate synthetic near-fault ground motions at a site. The procedure is formulated in terms of information about the earthquake design scenario that is normally available to a design engineer. Not all near-fault ground motions contain a forward directivity pulse, even when the conditions for such a pulse are favorable. The proposed procedure produces pulselike and non-pulselike motions in the same proportions as they naturally occur among recorded near-fault ground motions for a given design scenario. The proposed models and simulation procedure are validated by several means. Synthetic ground motion time series with fitted parameter values are compared with the corresponding recorded motions. The proposed empirical predictive relations are compared to similar relations available in the literature. The overall simulation procedure is validated by comparing suites of synthetic ground motions generated for given earthquake source and site characteristics to the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed as part of phase 2 of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) program, (NGA-West2, see, e.g., Campbell and Bozorgnia, 2014). Comparison is made in terms of the estimated median level and variability of elastic ground motion response spectra. The use of synthetic motions in addition to or in place of recorded motions is desirable in performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) applications, particularly when recorded motions are scarce or when they are unavailable for a specified design scenario. As a demonstrative application, synthetic motions from the proposed simulation procedure are used to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a near-fault site. The analysis shows that the hazard at a near-fault site is underestimated when the ground motion model used does not properly account for the possibility of pulselike motions due to the directivity effect.

Download or read book Ground Motion and Variability from 3 D Deterministic Broadband Simulations written by Kyle Withers and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The accuracy of earthquake source descriptions is a major limitation in high-frequency ($>1$ Hz) deterministic ground motion prediction, which is critical for performance-based design by building engineers. With the recent addition of realistic fault topography in 3D simulations of earthquake source models, ground motion can be deterministically calculated more realistically up to higher frequencies. We first introduce a technique to model frequency-dependent attenuation and compare its impact on strong ground motions recorded for the 2008 Chino Hills earthquake. Then, we model dynamic rupture propagation for both a generic strike-slip event and blind thrust scenario earthquakes matching the fault geometry of the 1994 Mw 6.7 Northridge earthquake along rough faults up to 8 Hz. We incorporate frequency-dependent attenuation via a power law above a reference frequency in the form $Q_0f^n$ ,with high accuracy down to Q values of 15, and include nonlinear effects via Drucker-Prager plasticity. We model the region surrounding the fault with and without small-scale medium complexity in both a 1D layered model characteristic of southern California rock and a 3D medium extracted from the SCEC CVMSi.426 including a near-surface geotechnical layer. We find that the spectral acceleration from our models are within 1-2 interevent standard deviations from recent ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and compare well with that of recordings from strong ground motion stations at both short and long periods. At periods shorter than 1 second, Q(f) is needed to match the decay of spectral acceleration seen in the GMPEs as a function of distance from the fault. We find that the similarity between the intraevent variability of our simulations and observations increases when small-scale heterogeneity and plasticity are included, extremely important as uncertainty in ground motion estimates dominates the overall uncertainty in seismic risk. In addition to GMPEs, we compare with simple proxy metrics to evaluate the performance of our deterministic models and to determine the importance of different complexities within our model. We find that 3D heterogeneity, at both the long and short scale-lengths, is necessary to agree with data, and should be included in future simulations to best model the ground motion from earthquakes.

Download or read book Issues in Earth Sciences Geology and Geophysics 2012 Edition written by and published by ScholarlyEditions. This book was released on 2013-01-10 with total page 1152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issues in Earth Sciences, Geology, and Geophysics: 2012 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ eBook that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Hydrology. The editors have built Issues in Earth Sciences, Geology, and Geophysics: 2012 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Hydrology in this eBook to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in Earth Sciences, Geology, and Geophysics: 2012 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.

Download or read book Final Report for USGS NEHRP Project 08HQGR0022 written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the final report for United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) Project 08HQGR0022, entitled "Quantifying Uncertainties in Ground Motion Simulations for Scenario Earthquakes on the HaywardRodgers Creek Fault System Using the USGS 3D Seismic Velocity Model and Realistic Pseudodynamics Ruptures". Work for this project involved three-dimensional (3D) simulations of ground motions for Hayward Fault (HF) earthquakes. We modeled moderate events on the HF and used them to evaluate the USGS 3D model of the San Francisco Bay Area. We also contributed to ground motions modeling effort for a large suite of scenario earthquakes on the HF. Results were presented at conferences (see appendix) and in one peer-reviewed publication (Aagaard et al., 2010).

Download or read book Strong Ground Motion Simulation and Earthquake Engineering Applications written by Roger E. Scholl and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Scenario for a Magnitude 7 0 Earthquake on the Hayward Fault written by Earthquake Engineering Research Institute and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Seismological Research Letters written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: