Download or read book Global Debt Database Methodology and Sources written by Samba Mbaye and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-14 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes the compilation of the Global Debt Database (GDD), a cutting-edge dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world (190 countries) dating back to the 1950s. The GDD is the result of a multiyear investigative process that started with the October 2016 Fiscal Monitor, which pioneered the expansion of private debt series to a global sample. It differs from existing datasets in three major ways. First, it takes a fundamentally new approach to compiling historical data. Where most debt datasets either provide long series with a narrow and changing definition of debt or comprehensive debt concepts over a short period, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple debt series with different coverages, thus ensuring consistency across time. Second, it more than doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. Finally, the integrity of the data has been checked through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country desks of all countries in the sample, setting a higher data quality standard.
Download or read book Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt written by Mr.Serkan Arslanalp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-03-05 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes an approach to track US$1 trillion of emerging market government debt held by foreign investors in local and hard currency, based on a similar approach that was used for advanced economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda, 2012). The estimates are constructed on a quarterly basis from 2004 to mid-2013 and are available along with the paper in an online dataset. We estimate that about half a trillion dollars of foreign flows went into emerging market government debt during 2010–12, mostly coming from foreign asset managers. Foreign central bank holdings have risen as well, but remain concentrated in a few countries: Brazil, China, Indonesia, Poland, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa. We also find that foreign investor flows to emerging markets were less differentiated during 2010–12 against the background of near-zero interest rates in advanced economies. The paper extends some of the indicators proposed in our earlier paper to show how the investor base data can be used to assess countries’ sensitivity to external funding shocks and to track foreign investors’ exposures to different markets within a global benchmark portfolio.
Download or read book Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries written by Anastasia Guscina and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-04 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a new database on government debt in 19 emerging market countries since 1980. The data set focuses on the structure of debt in terms of jurisdiction of insurance, maturity, currency composition and indexation. The paper presents stylized facts on debt structures and preliminary evidence on their determinants. We observe substantial crosscountry variation in the structure of domestic debt and find it to be associated with countries' record of monetary stability.
Download or read book Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries written by Olivier Jeanne and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a new database on government debt in 19 emerging market countries since 1980. The data set focuses on the structure of debt in terms of jurisdiction of insurance, maturity, currency composition and indexation. The paper presents stylized facts on debt structures and preliminary evidence on their determinants. We observe substantial cross-country variation in the structure of domestic debt and find it to be associated with countries` record of monetary stability.
Download or read book Private and Public Debt written by Marco Bernardini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-22 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a dataset covering a large sample of emerging economies (EMEs), we study the relationship between debt and economic performance in bad times. While previous research has shown that private debt buildups exacerbate the duration and intensity of recessions in advanced economies (AEs), we document that this effect is very pronounced in EMEs as well. Moreover, although rapid public debt buildups are unlikely to be the primary trigger of financial crises, in EMEs they are associated with deeper and longer recessions than in AEs. Part of this difference is explained by a less supportive fiscal policy in EMEs during crises.
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook September 2003 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-10 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, and economics in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.
Download or read book The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads written by Nazim Belhocine and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do financial markets respond to concerns over debt sustainability and the level of public debt in emerging markets? We introduce a measure of debt sustainability – the difference between the debt stabilizing primary balance and the primary balance–in an otherwise standard spread regression model applied to a panel of 26 emerging market economies. We find that debt sustainability is an important determinant of spreads. In addition, using a panel smooth transition regression model, we find that the sensitivity of spreads to debt sustainability doubles as public debt increases above 45 percent of GDP. These results suggest that market interest rates react more to debt sustainability concerns in a country with a high level of debt compared to a country with a low level of debt.
Download or read book IMF Working Papers written by Anastasia Guscina and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Determinants of Investment Grade Status in Emerging Markets written by Laura Jaramillo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-05-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging market countries seek investment grade status to lower financing costs for the sovereign, expand the pool of potential investors to institutional investors, and allow corporates the possibility of reducing their borrowing costs. Using a random effects binomial logit model on a sample of 48 emerging markets, the paper finds that, to a large extent, investment grade rating assignments can be explained by a handful of variables. The results also suggest that efforts by emerging markets to increase the likelihood of an upgrade should focus on debt indicators rather than the other key determinants of investment grade status.
Download or read book Impact of Macroeconomic Political and Institutional Factors on the Structure of Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries written by Anastasia Guscina and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-08 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Debt crises that have shaken Latin America, Asia, and Russia have brought an increasing attention to the structure of debt in emerging market countries. Using the newly released Jeanne-Guscina EM Government Debt Database 2006 this paper empirically explores the role of macroeconomic, political, and institutional factors in determining the structure of government debt. Results show that unstable macroeconomic environment, poor quality institutions, and uncertain political climate hinder the development of domestic debt market. Moreover, such instability shifts the debt structure away from long-term local currency fixed rate debt towards short-term debt or to debt indexed to foreign currency, short-term interest rates or inflation. Original sin seems to be on the way out, as more and more countries are issuing local currency debt at longer maturities-which can be explained by successful macroeconomic stabilization policies and lessons learned from the debt crises.
Download or read book Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-10-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aims to put some constraints on the way primary surpluses are projected when making assessments of public debt sustainability. Projections should be tied either to the country's historical track record in generating surpluses-if the institutional and other factors accounting for this track record are expected to persist-or to some model that links primary surpluses to their fundamental determinants, either on the basis of constant institutions and policies or a credible reform program. History-based or model-based primary surplus projections provide a useful benchmark for judging the realism of fiscal forecasts underlying debt sustainability calculations. Together with information on future growth and interest rates, the primary surplus projections can be used to generate measures of overborrowing, and the magnitude of adjustment needed to return debt to a sustainable level.
Download or read book Other People s Money written by Barry Eichengreen and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-04-15 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent crises in emerging markets have been heavily driven by balance-sheet or net-worth effects. Episodes in countries as far-flung as Indonesia and Argentina have shown that exchange rate adjustments that would normally help to restore balance can be destabilizing, even catastrophic, for countries whose debts are denominated in foreign currencies. Many economists instinctually assume that developing countries allow their foreign debts to be denominated in dollars, yen, or euros because they simply don't know better. Presenting evidence that even emerging markets with strong policies and institutions experience this problem, Other People's Money recognizes that the situation must be attributed to more than ignorance. Instead, the contributors suggest that the problem is linked to the operation of international financial markets, which prevent countries from borrowing in their own currencies. A comprehensive analysis of the sources of this problem and its consequences, Other People's Money takes the study one step further, proposing a solution that would involve having the World Bank and regional development banks themselves borrow and lend in emerging market currencies.
Download or read book Does Gross or Net Debt Matter More for Emerging Market Spreads written by Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-18 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does gross or net debt matter for long-term sovereign spreads in emerging markets? The topic is important for undestanding the borrowing cost implications of public assetliability management decisions (e.g. using assets to lower debt). We investigate this question using data on emerging market economies (EMEs) over the period 1998–2014. We find that both gross debt and assets have a significant impact on long-term sovereign bond spreads in emerging markets, with effects roughly offsetting each other (coefficients of opposite sign and similar magnitude). Hence, net debt seems more appropriate than gross debt when evaluating the impact of indebtedness on spreads. The empirical results suggest that an increase in net debt by 10 percentage points of GDP implies an increase in the spread by 100–120 basis points, and the effect is larger during periods of domestic distress. The key results from this empirical study are quite robust to alternative specifications and subgroups of EMEs.
Download or read book Public Debt and Growth written by Jaejoon Woo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.
Download or read book The Level and Composition of Public Sector Debt in Emerging Market Crises written by Monica Baumgarten de Bolle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-08 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper examines the evolution of public sector debt levels and structures in 12 emerging market countries around the time of financial crises. In particular, it focuses on whether the debt situation of sovereign borrowers became more vulnerable in the aftermath of crises. The principal findings are that (i) debt levels tend to increase significantly post-crisis, and (ii) countries often experience more rigid debt structures following such events, with an increase in the share of external public debt to multilateral creditors and a greater exposure of the domestic banking system to sovereign debt.
Download or read book Global Debt Database Methodology and Sources written by Samba Mbaye and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-14 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes the compilation of the Global Debt Database (GDD), a cutting-edge dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world (190 countries) dating back to the 1950s. The GDD is the result of a multiyear investigative process that started with the October 2016 Fiscal Monitor, which pioneered the expansion of private debt series to a global sample. It differs from existing datasets in three major ways. First, it takes a fundamentally new approach to compiling historical data. Where most debt datasets either provide long series with a narrow and changing definition of debt or comprehensive debt concepts over a short period, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple debt series with different coverages, thus ensuring consistency across time. Second, it more than triples the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. Finally, the integrity of the data has been checked through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country desks of all countries in the sample, setting a higher data quality standard.
