Download or read book Global Impacts of Doha Trade Reform Scenarios on Poverty written by Kym Anderson and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper illustrates some of the potential consequences of the WTO's Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations on incomes and poverty globally. Using the global LINKAGE model to generate changes in domestic and international prices that have a direct impact on factor incomes and consumer prices, we estimate the change in real income at the poverty line that would accompany various reform scenarios. When accompanied by additional information about the elasticity of poverty with respect to income, this provides an estimate of the change in poverty by country. Under most liberalization scenarios considered, unskilled wages rise more than average incomes, but the estimated impact on global poverty is modest, especially if developing countries are unwilling to undertake much reform.

Download or read book Global Impacts of the Doha Scenarios on Poverty written by Kym Anderson and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: The authors illustrate some of the potential consequences of the World Trade Organization's Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations on incomes and poverty globally. Using the global LINKAGE model to generate changes in domestic and international prices that have a direct impact on factor incomes and consumer prices, they estimate the change in real income at the poverty line that would accompany various reform scenarios. When accompanied by additional information about the elasticity of poverty with respect to income, this provides an estimate of the change in poverty by country. Under most liberalization scenarios considered, unskilled wages rise more than average incomes, but the estimated impact on global poverty is modest, especially if developing countries are unwilling to undertake much reform.

Download or read book Global Impacts of the Doha Scenarios on Poverty written by Kym Anderson and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors illustrate some of the potential consequences of the World Trade Organization's Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations on incomes and poverty globally. Using the global LINKAGE model to generate changes in domestic and international prices that have a direct impact on factor incomes and consumer prices, they estimate the change in real income at the poverty line that would accompany various reform scenarios. When accompanied by additional information about the elasticity of poverty with respect to income, this provides an estimate of the change in poverty by country. Under most liberalization scenarios considered, unskilled wages rise more than average incomes, but the estimated impact on global poverty is modest, especially if developing countries are unwilling to undertake much reform.

Download or read book Poverty Impacts of a Wto Agreement Synthesis and Overview written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Poverty Impacts of a WTO Agreement written by Thomas Warren Hertel and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reports on the findings from a major international research project investigating the poverty impacts of a potential Doha Development Agenda (DDA). It combines in a novel way the results from several strands of research. Intensive analysis of the DDA Framework Agreement pays particularly close attention to potential reforms in agriculture. The scenarios are built up using newly available tariff line data and their implications for world markets are established using a global modeling framework. These world trade impacts, in turn, form the basis for 12 country case studies of the national poverty impacts of these DDA scenarios. The focus countries include Bangladesh, Brazil (two studies), Cameroon, China (two studies), Indonesia, Mexico, Mozambique, the Philippines, Russia, and Zambia. The diversity of approaches taken in these studies allows the paper to reflect local conditions and priorities and illustrates many important facets of the trade and poverty link. It does, however, limit the ability to draw broader conclusions. Thus an additional study provides a 15-country cross-section analysis, and a global analysis provides estimates for the world as a whole.

Download or read book Global Trade and Poor Nations written by Marcelo Olarreaga and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Brookings Institution Press and Yale Center for the Study of Globalization and Sciences-Po, Paris publication This thoughtful volume assesses the likely impact of reformed trade policies on the poorest of the poor—those on the bottom economic rungs in developing nations. The focus on a spectrum of poor nations across different regions provides some helpful and hopeful guidelines regarding the likely impacts of a global trade reform, agreed upon under the auspices of the World Trade Organization, as well as the impact of such reforms on economic development. In order to facilitate lesson-drawing across different regions, each country study utilizes a similar methodology. They combine information on trade policy at the product level with income and consumption data at the household level, thus capturing effects both on the macro level and in individual households where development policies ideally should improve day-to-day life. This uniformity of research approach across the country studies allows for a deeper and more robust comparison of results.

Download or read book Implications of WTO Agreements and Unilateral Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The authors examine the effects of WTO agreements and domestic trade policy reforms on production, welfare, and poverty in Bangladesh. They use a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which takes into account accumulation effects, allowing for long-run analysis. The study is based on the 2000 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Bangladesh including 15 production sectors, four factors of production (skilled and unskilled labor, agricultural and nonagricultural capital), and nine household groups (five in rural areas and four in urban areas). To examine the link between the macroeconomic effects and microeconomic effects in terms of poverty, the authors use the representative household approach with actual intra-group income distributions. The study presents five simulations for which the major findings are: - The Doha scenario has negative implications for the overall macroeconomy, household welfare, and poverty in Bangladesh. Terms of trade deteriorate and consumer prices, particularly food prices, increase more than nominal incomes, especially among poor households. - Free world trade has similar, but larger, impacts. - Domestic trade liberalization induces an expansion of agricultural and light manufacturing sectors, favorable changes in the domestic terms of trade. Although the short-run welfare and poverty impacts are negative, these turn positive in the long run when capital has adjusted through new investments. Rising unskilled wage rates make the poorest households the biggest winners in terms of welfare and poverty reduction. - Domestic liberalization effects far outweigh those of free world trade when these scenarios are combined. - Remittances constitute a powerful poverty-reducing tool given their greater importance in the income of the poor." -- Cover verso.

Download or read book Poverty and the WTO written by Thomas W. Hertel and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005-12-15 with total page 564 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Poverty reduction is deemed to be a centerpiece of the Doha Development Agenda currently being negotiated under the auspices of the WTO. Yet there is considerable debate about the poverty impacts of such an agreement. Some are convinced it will increase poverty, while others are equally convinced that it will lead to poverty reduction. This book brings the best scientific methods to bear on this question, taking into account the specific characteristics embodied in the Doha Development Agenda.

Download or read book The Poverty Impacts of the Doha Round in Cameroon written by Christian Arnault Emini and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors aim to assess the possible impacts of the Doha Round of negotiations on poverty in Cameroon. During the recent period of economic recovery, Cameroon enjoyed a sharp decline in poverty, with the headcount index falling from 53.3 percent of inhabitants in 1996 to 40.2 percent in 2001, mostly due to economic growth rather than redistribution. Will the current trade negotiations under the Doha Round reinforce or curb this trend? They apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) microsimulation model that involves 10,992 households in order to address this question. The authors find the Doha Round to be poverty-reducing for Cameroon. For the whole country, the estimate of the net number of people who are lifted out of poverty is 22,000 following this scenario. Further investigations indicate that more ambitious world trade liberalization leads to greater poverty alleviation at the national level, while Cameroon's domestic trade liberalization has adverse poverty and inequality impacts-despite giving rise to higher aggregate welfare. Under the Doha scenario, the cuts in Cameroon's tariffs are very small (the average tariff rate moves from 11.79 percent in the base run to merely 11.66 percent) so that world trade liberalization effects on prices more than offset the adverse own liberalization effects in this scenario. If the rest of the world and Cameroon full trade liberalizations are combined, the adverse impacts of own liberalization outweigh the favorable outcomes of the world trade liberalization. The results suggest furthermore that the choice of tax replacement instrument can have an important bias in poverty impacts: poverty gets worse in the country case study when using an imperfect value-added tax instead of a neutral replacement tax to compensate lost tariff revenue, and gets even worse when using a consumption tax. Key reasons here are the supplementary distortions which are nil in case of a neutral tax and greatest in the case of a consumption tax. In addition, accompanying measures should be considered to avoid poverty increases in the framework of Economic Partnership Agreements currently in negotiation between African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries and the European Union, which propose a drastic dismantlement of ACP tariffs over the next few years.

Download or read book Distributional Effects of WTO Agricultural Reforms in Rich and Poor Countries written by Roman Keeney and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Rich countries' agricultural trade policies are the battleground on which the future of the WTO's troubled Doha Round will be determined. Subject to widespread criticism, they nonetheless appear to be almost immune to serious reform, and one of their most common defenses is that they protect poor farmers. The authors' findings reject this claim. The analysis uses detailed data on farm incomes to show that major commodity programs are highly regressive in the United States, and that the only serious losses under trade reform are among large, wealthy farmers in a few heavily protected subsectors. In contrast, analysis using household data from 15 developing countries indicates that reforming rich countries' agricultural trade policies would lift large numbers of developing country farm households out of poverty. In the majority of cases these gains are not outweighed by the poverty-increasing effects of higher food prices among other households. Agricultural reforms that appear feasible, even under an ambitious Doha Round, achieve only a fraction of the benefits for developing countries that full liberalization promises, but protect U.S. large farms from most of the rigors of adjustment. Finally, the analysis indicates that maximal trade-led poverty reductions occur when developing countries participate more fully in agricultural trade liberalization.

Download or read book Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty in the Asia Pacific written by John Gilbert and published by Unescap Working Papers. This book was released on 2008 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This document reviews the literature on the relationship between agricultural trade policy reform and poverty, and the results of recent detailed simulation studies applied to economies in the ESCAP region. It then uses the GTAP model to evaluate the possible impacts of the most recently proposed modality for agricultural trade reform under Doha on the economies of the ESCAP region. It compares the results to a benchmark of comprehensive agricultural trade reform and finds that the current proposal does not imply significant cuts to applied tariffs, and has very modest overall effects on welfare.

Download or read book Trade Policy and Global Poverty written by William R. Cline and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 2004 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Free trade can help 500 million people escape poverty and inject.

Download or read book Multilateral Trade Liberalization and Mexican Households written by Alessandro Nicita and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Empirical evidence suggests that global trade reforms are unlikely to produce analogous results across countries, especially when analyzing their effect on poverty. This implies that the analysis of trade reform on social welfare cannot be generalized and needs to be conducted on a country by country basis. Moreover, even within the same country, geographic areas, households, and individuals are likely to be differentially affected, some of them benefiting more than others, while others might lose. With this in mind, the author provides a quantitative estimate of the effect on Mexican households from the implementation of the Doha development agenda. His analysis uses a two-step approach for which changes in prices and factors are estimated through a CGE model (GTAP) and then mapped into the welfare function of the household using household survey data. The empirical approach the author uses aims to measure the impact of Doha implementation by tracing changes in the household prices of goods and factors and their impact on household welfare, taking particular account the role of domestic price transmission. The findings suggest that multilateral trade liberalization alone would have a negative effect on Mexican households, even though very small. However, when the implementation of the Doha development agenda is complemented by domestic policies aimed at increasing productivity and improving domestic price transmission, the overall effects become positive. The results point to the importance of domestic price transmission in determining the variance of the effects across households"--Cover verso.

Download or read book Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform written by Thomas Warren Hertel and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2004 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "An important area of research in recent years involves assessing the microeconomic implications of macro-level policies--particularly those related to international trade. While a wide range of research methodologies are available for assessing the microeconomic incidence of micro-policies, as well as for assessing the effect of macro-level policies on markets and broad groups of households, there is a gap when it comes to eliciting the disaggregated household and firm level effects of trade policies. Recent research addresses this knowledge gap and the present survey offers an overview of this literature. The preponderance of the evidence from the studies encompassed by this survey points to the dominance of earnings-side effects over consumption-side effects of trade reform. This is problematic, since household surveys are notable for their underreporting of income. From the perspective of the poor, it is the market for unskilled labor that is most important. The poverty effects of trade policy often hinge crucially on how well the increased demand for labor in one part of the economy is transmitted to the rest of the economy by way of increased wages, increased employment, or both. Further econometric research aimed at discriminating between competing factor mobility hypotheses is urgently needed. This paper--a product of the Trade Team, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the poverty impacts of trade policies"--World Bank web site.

Download or read book Doha Scenarios Trade Reforms and Poverty in the Philippines written by Caesar Bucia Cororaton and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Since the early 1980s the Philippines has undertaken substantial trade reform. The current Doha Round of World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations is now likely to bring further reform and shocks to world import prices and export demand. The impact of all these developments on the poor is not very clear and is the subject of intense debate. The authors use a detailed economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to run a series of policy experiments. They find that poverty increases slightly with the implementation of the prospective Doha scenario. These effects are focused primarily among rural households in the wake of falling world prices and demand for the Philippines' agricultural exports. The authors find that the impacts of full liberalization-involving free world trade and complete domestic liberalization-depend strongly on the mechanism the government adopts to offset forgone tariff revenue. If an indirect tax is used, the incidence of poverty falls marginally, but the depth (poverty gap) and severity (squared poverty gap) increase substantially. If, instead, an income tax is used, all measures of poverty increase. In both cases, full liberalization favors urban households, as exports, which are primarily nonagricultural, expand. In separate simulations, the authors discover that free world trade is poverty reducing and favors rural households, whereas domestic liberalization is poverty increasing and favors urban households. Under free world trade, rural households benefit from increasing world agricultural demand. The anti-rural bias of domestic liberalization stems from the fact that import prices fall more for agricultural goods than for industrial goods, as initial import-weighted average tariff rates are higher for the former. In conclusion, the current Doha agreement appears likely to slightly increase poverty, especially in rural areas and among the unemployed, self-employed, and rural low-educated. The Philippines is found to have an interest in pushing for more ambitious world trade liberalization, as free world trade holds out promise for reducing poverty. "--World Bank web site.

Download or read book Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda on China written by Fan Zhai and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper offers an assessment of the implications of multilateral trade reforms for poverty in China. We do so by combining results from a global modeling exercise with a national CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model that features disaggregated households in both the rural and urban sectors. We examine two trade reform scenarios: one involving global trade liberalization, and one involving possible Doha Development Agenda reforms. Using the World Bank's $2/day poverty line, we find that multilateral trade reforms do in fact reduce poverty in China. The biggest reductions occur in the rural areas - largely as a result of higher prices for farm products.

Download or read book Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries written by Kym Anderson and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author offers an economic assessment of the opportunities and challenges provided by the World Trade Organization's Doha Development Agenda, particularly through agricultural trade liberalization, for low-income countries seeking to trade their way out of poverty. After discussing links between poverty, economic growth, and trade, he reports modeling results showing that farm product markets remain the most costly of all goods market distortions in world trade. The author focuses on what such reform might mean for developing countries both with and without their involvement in the multilateral trade negotiations. What becomes clear is that if those countries want to maximize their benefits from the Doha round, they need also to free up their own domestic product and factor markets so their farmers are better able to take advantage of new market opportunities abroad. The author also addresses other concerns of low-income countries about farm trade reform: whether there would be losses associated with tariff preference erosion, whether food-importing countries would suffer from higher food prices in international markets, whether China's WTO accession will provide an example of trade reform aggravating poverty by way of cuts in prices received by Chinese farmers, and the impact on food security and poverty alleviation.