Download or read book Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy written by Carlos Caceres and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-08 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is the Mundell-Fleming trilemma alive and well? International co-movement of asset prices takes place alongside synchronized business cycles, complicating the identification of financial spillovers and assessments of monetary policy autonomy. A benchmark for interest rate comovement is to impose the null hypothesis that central banks respond only to the outlook for domestic inflation and output. We show that common approaches used to estimate interest rate spillovers tend to understate the degree of monetary autonomy enjoyed by small open economies with flexible exchange rates. We propose an empirical strategy that partials out those spillovers that are associated with impaired monetary autonomy. Using this approach, we revisit the predictions of the trilemma and find more compelling evidence that flexible exchange rates deliver monetary autonomy than prior work has suggested.
Download or read book A Tie That Binds written by Mr.Maurice Obstfeld and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-06-15 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the claim that exchange rate regimes are of little salience in the transmission of global financial conditions to domestic financial and macroeconomic conditions by focusing on a sample of about 40 emerging market countries over 1986–2013. Our findings show that exchange rate regimes do matter. Countries with fixed exchange rate regimes are more likely to experience financial vulnerabilities—faster domestic credit and house price growth, and increases in bank leverage—than those with relatively flexible regimes. The transmission of global financial shocks is likewise magnified under fixed exchange rate regimes relative to more flexible (though not necessarily fully flexible) regimes. We attribute this to both reduced monetary policy autonomy and a greater sensitivity of capital flows to changes in global conditions under fixed rate regimes.
Download or read book U S Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates written by Carlos Caceres and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-29 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the Federal Reserve continues to normalize its monetary policy, this paper studies the impact of U.S. interest rates on rates in other countries. We find a modest but nontrivial pass-through from U.S. to domestic short-term interest rates on average. We show that, to a large extent, this comovement reflects synchronized business cycles. However, there is important heterogeneity across countries, and we find evidence of limited monetary autonomy in some cases. The co-movement of longer term interest rates is larger and more pervasive. We distinguish between U.S. interest rate movements that surprise markets versus those that are anticipated, and find that most countries receive greater spillovers from the former. We also distinguish between movements in the U.S. term premium and the expected path of risk-free rates, concluding that countries respond differently to these shocks. Finally, we explore the determinants of monetary autonomy and find strong evidence for the role of exchange rate flexibility, capital account openness, but also for other factors, such as dollarization of financial system liabilities, and the credibility of fiscal and monetary policy.
Download or read book Normalization of Global Financial Conditions written by Mr.Troy Matheson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-03 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global financial conditions are poised to tighten further as the global recovery proceeds. While monetary policy normalization should be a healthy global development as growth continues to recover in advanced economies, financial spillovers seen during the taper episode—which started with the announcement in May 2013 of possible tapering of U.S. asset purchases—hint at potential challenges for Brazil. The Fed’s communications related to normalization have improved significantly since the taper episode and, at present, a rise in Fed Funds rate in 2015 is widely anticipated by markets—arguably the most widely anticipated tightening of monetary policy in history. While Brazil could benefit from tighter global financial conditions associated with improved global prospects, bouts of heightened uncertainty about the future course of monetary policy cannot be ruled out. Thus, the correct diagnosis of the underlying reasons behind tighter global financial conditions remains crucially important for Brazil. Adverse spillovers can be mitigated by strengthening policy frameworks and fundamentals.
Download or read book Facing the Global Financial Cycle What Role for Policy written by Nicoletta Batini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-12 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract In this paper we ask whether countries can influence their exposure to changes in global financial conditions. Specifically, we show that even though we can model cross-country capital flows via a global factor that closely tracks changes in global financial conditions, there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the sensitivity of each country to this same global factor. We then evaluate whether this cross-country heterogeneity can be attributed to different policy choices, including measures of capital flow management, such as capital controls and macroprudential policies. In our main results, we show that higher levels of capital controls and macroprudential policies both dampen the sensitivity to the global factor. Furthermore, we show that countries’ monetary and exchange rate policies can also be successfully deployed. Overall, our results have implications that extend beyond the surge that preceded the 2008 global financial crisis, and that closely resonate in light of the financial disruptions that followed the COVID-19 pandemic.
Download or read book Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy written by Carlos Caceres and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-06-08 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is the Mundell-Fleming trilemma alive and well? International co-movement of asset prices takes place alongside synchronized business cycles, complicating the identification of financial spillovers and assessments of monetary policy autonomy. A benchmark for interest rate comovement is to impose the null hypothesis that central banks respond only to the outlook for domestic inflation and output. We show that common approaches used to estimate interest rate spillovers tend to understate the degree of monetary autonomy enjoyed by small open economies with flexible exchange rates. We propose an empirical strategy that partials out those spillovers that are associated with impaired monetary autonomy. Using this approach, we revisit the predictions of the trilemma and find more compelling evidence that flexible exchange rates deliver monetary autonomy than prior work has suggested.
Download or read book Trilemma Not Dilemma written by Georgios Georgiadis and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate whether the classic Mundell-Flemming "trilemma" has morphed into a "dilemma" due to financial globalisation. According to the dilemma hypothesis, global financial cycles determine domestic financial conditions regardless of an economy's exchange rate regime and monetary policy autonomy is possible only if capital mobility is restricted. We find that global financial cycles indeed reduce domestic monetary policy effectiveness in more financially integrated economies. However, we also find that another salient feature of financial globalisation has the opposite effect and amplifies monetary policy effectiveness. Economies increasingly net long in foreign currency experience larger valuation effects on their external balance sheets in response to exchange rate movements triggered by monetary policy impluses. Overall, we find that the net effect of financial globalisation since the 1990s has been to amplify monetary policy effectiveness in the typical advanced and emerging market economy. Specifically, our results suggest that the output effect of a tightening in monetary policy has been stronger by 40% due to financial globalisation. Insofar as valuation effects can only play out if an economy's exchange rate is flexible, the choice of the exchange rate regime remains critical for monetary policy autonomy under capital mobility and in the presence of global financial cycles. Thus, our results suggest that the classic trilemma remains valid.
Download or read book Normalization of Global Financial Conditions written by Troy Matheson and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions written by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.
Download or read book Financial Openness and National Autonomy written by Tariq Banuri and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The previous decade ushered in a globalization of finance and governments abandoned their "Keynesian" responsibility to engage in international financial management. A new doctrine of global neoclassicism arose, based on the premise that regulation of financial markets was futile. This volume rejects that approach, and asks whether national policy autonomy is still possible. The authors address financial openness from a "political economy" perspective, including both general historical and theoretical approaches, as well as case studies of countries such as Australia, Mexico, and Pakistan.
Download or read book Capital Flows at Risk Taming the Ebbs and Flows written by Mr.R. G Gelos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-20 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.
Download or read book The Expansionary Lower Bound Contractionary Monetary Easing and the Trilemma written by Paolo Cavallino and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-11-03 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a theory of the limits to monetary policy independence in open economies arising from the interaction between capital flows and domestic collateral constraints. The key feature of our theory is the existence of an “Expansionary Lower Bound” (ELB), defined as an interest rate threshold below which monetary easing becomes contractionary. The ELB can be positive, thus acting as a more stringent constraint than the Zero Lower Bound. Furthermore, the ELB is affected by global monetary and financial conditions, leading to novel international spillovers and crucial departures from Mundell’s trilemma. We present two models under which the ELB may arise, the first featuring carry-trade capital flows and the second highlighting the role of currency mismatches.
Download or read book Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy written by Steven B. Kamin and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011-05 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reviews the available evidence and previous research on potential effects of financial globalization, that is, the international integration of financial markets. Central banks with floating currencies retain the ability to independently determine short-term interest rates and thus influence broader financial conditions and macro-economic performance in their economies. However, domestic financial conditions appear to have become more vulnerable to a wide range of external shocks, complicating the task of making appropriate monetary policy decisions. Moreover, the financial crisis has highlighted the importance of cross-border channels for the transmission of liquidity and credit shocks. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand report.
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report April 2017 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-04-19 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial stability has continued to improve since the October 2016 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR). Economic activity has gained momentum, as outlined in the April 2017 World Economic Outlook (WEO), amid broadly accommodative monetary and financial conditions, spurring hopes for reflation. Chapter 2 analyzes the potential long-term impact of a scenario of sustained low growth and low real and nominal rates for the business models of financial institutions and the products offered by the financial sector. Chapter 3 examines whether countries still retain influence over their domestic financial conditions in a globally integrated financial system. The chapter develops financial conditions indices that make it possible to compare a large set of advanced and emerging market economies.
Download or read book International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma written by Hélène Rey and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This lecture argues that the Global Financial Cycle is a challenge for the validity of the Mundellian trilemma. I present evidence that US monetary policy shocks are transmitted internationally and affect financial conditions even in inflation targeting economies with large financial markets. Hence flexible exchange rates are not enough to guarantee monetary autonomy in a world of large capital flows
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report October 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-16 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.
Download or read book The ASEAN Way written by Ms.Ana Corbacho and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-10-02 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.
