Download or read book Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets written by Mr. Jorge A Alvarez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-03 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation – which has accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level.
Download or read book Energy Transition and Geoeconomic Fragmentation written by Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-11-28 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewable energy technologies; and (3) the likely intensification of macroeconomic shocks amid increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the associated policy responses. In this context, the note assesses the implications of the polycrisis for hypothetical scenarios used to assess climate-related financial risks. Following an analysis of the channels through which these effects are likely to materialize over short- and long-term horizons and some policy implications, the note proposes potential adjustments to the design of the climate scenarios used by financial institutions, central banks, and financial sector supervisors and regulators within their risk management frameworks.
Download or read book Geoeconomic Fragmentation What s at Stake for the EU written by Chikako Baba and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-11-30 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) is becoming entrenched worldwide, and the European Union (EU) is not immune to its effects. This paper takes stock of GEF policies impinging on—and adopted by—the EU and considers how exposed the EU is through trade, financial and technological channels. Motivated by current policies adopted by other countries, the paper then simulates how various measures—raising costs of trade and technology transfer and fossil fuel prices, and imposition of sectoral subsidies—would affect the EU economy. Due to its high-degree of openness, the EU is found to be exposed to GEF through multiple channels, with simulated losses that differ significantly across scenarios. From a welfare perspective, this suggests the need for a cautious approach to GEF policies. The EU’s best defence against GEF is to strengthen the Single Market while advocating for a multilateral rules-based trading system.
Download or read book How Vulnerable is Sub Saharan Africa to Geoeconomic Fragmentation written by Marijn A. Bolhuis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-04-05 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the potential effects of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) in the sub-Saharan Africa region (SSA) through quantifying potential long-term economic costs. The paper considers two alternative GEF scenarios in which trade relations are fully or partially curtailed across world economies. Our quantification relies on a multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model and takes a deep dive into the impact across SSA’s oil-rich, other resource-rich and non-resource-rich countries. The results are based on a detailed dataset including information for 136 tradable primary commodity and 24 manufacturing and services sectors in 145 countries—32 of which are in SSA. We find that under GEF, SSA could experience long-term wellfare losses of approximately 4 percent of GDP, twice the losses of the rest of the world. This strong effect results from the large losses of other resource-rich and non-resource rich countries in SSA, given their high dependence on commodity trade. However, if the world experiences a less severe GEF-induced trade disruption—a strategic decoupling—SSA countries could derive minor gains from the re-shuffling of global market supply, specially in energy products.
Download or read book Geo Economic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism written by Mr. Shekhar Aiyar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-01-15 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After several decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). This note explores the ramifications. It identifies multiple channels through which the benefits of globalization were earlier transmitted, and along which, conversely, the costs of GEF are likely to fall, including trade, migration, capital flows, technology diffusion and the provision of global public goods. It explores the consequences of GEF for the international monetary system and the global financial safety net. Finally, it suggests a pragmatic path forward for preserving the benefits of global integration and multilateralism
Download or read book Malaysia written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-10 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Malaysia’s growth momentum has slowed but remains resilient to external headwinds. While monetary policy has paused its tightening cycle, fiscal policy is consolidating, and the ringgit had been under pressure through most of 2023. The government’s commitment to the reform priorities outlined in its national strategic plans is yet to fully materialize, with the economy’s path to high-income status hanging in the balance.
Download or read book Gulf Cooperation Council Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-14 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The GCC region’s non-hydrocarbon growth momentum remains strong, driven by higher domestic demand, increased gross capital inflows, and reform implementation. Oil production – which depends on OPEC+ decisions – will be subdued in the near term. Inflation is contained and current account surpluses are high. Fiscal balances remain healthy, supported by fiscal reforms and high oil prices. The primary non-oil deficits are expected to decrease to 24 percent of GDP by 2028, with higher non-oil revenue reflecting sustained fiscal and structural reforms and contained expenditures. High global uncertainty is weighing on the outlook.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2023 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-10 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The latest World Economic Outlook reports signs that policy tightening is starting to cool activity despite core inflation proving persistent. Risks are more balanced as banking sector stress has receded, but they remain tilted to the downside. Monetary policy should stay the course to bring inflation to target, while fiscal consolidation is needed to tackle soaring debts. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.
Download or read book Australia written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-01-18 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Australia’s post-pandemic recovery remained strong. However, growth is weakening on the heels of tighter macroeconomic policies and financial conditions. While inflation has peaked, it remains persistently high. Labor market shows signs of easing, and the positive output gap is narrowing. Increased cost of living started to weigh on household consumption. The economy remains resilient in the near term but confronts a secular productivity slowdown. Financial stability risks remain contained although pockets of vulnerability exist and risks of spillovers from global financial conditions have increased since the last Article IV.
Download or read book External Sector Report 2024 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-07-12 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This year’s report provides the external sector assessment of 30 of the world’s largest economies on the basis of their 2023 data. With tight monetary policy conditions in key advanced economies continuing in 2023, the US dollar remained strong in 2023 and early 2024 by historical standards, while other reserve currency movements have been mixed. Net capital inflows to emerging market and developing economies recovered slightly from the lows experienced in 2022 but remained negative in 2023. Gross inflows and outflows in emerging markets declined, however. Against this background, the global current account balance (defined as the cross-country sum of absolute values of current account) narrowed significantly in 2023, while the excess global current account balance (in excess of the current account norms) has remained broadly unchanged relative to 2022. The report also analyzes the historical pattern in the external sector implications of energy price swings. Energy-importing countries are exposed to adverse effects of negative oil supply shocks but can adopt several policy measures to soften the impact. Possible implications of the clean energy transition and the evolving correlation between the oil price and US dollar are discussed. Lastly, the report contains external sector assessments of individual economies, which are based on a wide range of methods including a multilaterally consistent model of current accounts.
Download or read book People s Republic of China written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-02-02 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China has enjoyed decades of impressive growth, which has significantly improved living standards and largely eradicated extreme poverty. The growth has, however, been accompanied by widening imbalances and rising vulnerabilities, as excessive investment in infrastructure and housing has resulted in rising debt levels among property developers, local governments (LG), and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). The authorities have proactively sought to contain developer leverage. This has contributed to a significant, but needed, adjustment in the property market that continues to weigh on economic activity, including through its impact on LG finances. Amid these structural challenges, the authorities have appropriately announced their goal to transition to high quality growth while tackling risks from the property sector and LG debt.
Download or read book Unlocking Climate Finance in Asia Pacific written by Cheng Hoon Lim and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-01-29 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The transition to a sustainable future in the Asia-Pacific region has global economic significance. Despite driving global growth in recent years, the region's heavy coal reliance led to significant greenhouse gas emissions. Meeting climate mitigation and adaptation needs in emerging and developing Asia requires investment of at least $1.1 trillion annually. Actual investment falls short by about $800 billion. Asia-Pacific’s environmental performance has also hampered its ability to tap into private flows from the fast-growing ESG asset class, keeping the cost of issuing sustainable debt instruments relatively high compared to other regions. This paper provides an overview of the climate finance ecosystem in countries in the Asia-Pacific region and presents strategies to mobilize climate finance for the region’s transition to a sustainable future. The paper identifies challenges, including gaps in the climate information architecture, policy conflicts, global complexities, and emphasizes the need for coordinated action involving governments, central banks, financial supervisors, the IMF, and other multilateral institutions. In particular, • Governments need to establish a well-defined climate strategy with strong institutional oversight and coordination to strengthen the framework on data, taxonomies, and disclosures. Fossil fuel subsidies should be phased out and carbon pricing schemes expanded to create fiscal space for sustainable investments. Strengthening macroeconomic management is essential to attract private capital. • Financial supervisors and central banks should coordinate across jurisdictions to promote global, interoperable disclosure standards, enhance climate risk analysis and reporting, and incorporate climate-related financial risks into prudential frameworks. Developing climate labels for sustainable investment funds and shifting the focus of ESG scores to better capture sustainability and climate impact would foster trust in the evaluations. The IMF can drive climate action by integrating discussions in surveillance activities and strengthening data and statistics—including through capacity building and peer learning—to develop common standards around climate risk measurement and analysis. The Resilience and Sustainability Trust could contribute to reducing financing gaps through its catalytic and reform supporting functions, while multilateral development banks could scale up grant financing and concessional lending, and where appropriate adopt risk-mitigating mechanisms to expand lending capacity. Cooperation among multilateral institutions is essential to align efforts and resources to achieve a balanced allocation between mitigation and adaptation lending.
Download or read book Asian Economic Integration Report 2024 written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2024-02-01 with total page 371 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report explores how economic forces are affecting cross-border flows of goods and services and the movement of people in Asia and the Pacific. It looks at the extent to which various challenges are prompting deeper economic links. This year’s theme chapter focuses on decarbonizing global value chains, exploring how policymakers can minimize emissions while maximizing the economic advantages of global production networks. It evaluates the impact of initiatives like the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism for Asian subregions, suggesting the use of carbon pricing, accounting mechanisms for embedded emissions, increased trade cooperation, upgraded technology, and international cooperation for technology transfer to reduce CO2 emissions.
Download or read book Delivering Growth to People Through Better Jobs written by Weltbankgruppe and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2023 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2023 from 3.6 percent in 2022. It is projected to increase to 3.7 percent in 2024 and 4.1 percent in 2025. However, in per capita terms, the region is projected to slightly contract over 2015-2025. The region faces many challenges, including a "lost decade" of sluggish growth, persistently low per capita income, mounting fiscal pressures exacerbated by high debt burdens, and an urgent need for job creation. Tackling these multifaceted issues requires comprehensive reforms to promote economic prosperity, reduce poverty, and create sustainable employment opportunities in the region. This will require an ecosystem that facilitates firm entry, stability, growth, and skill development that matches business demand.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook April 2024 written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-04-16 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The latest World Economic Outlook reports economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of 2022–23, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability. Risks to the global outlook are now broadly balanced compared with last year. Monetary policy should ensure that inflation touches down smoothly, while a renewed focus on fiscal consolidation is needed to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and to ensure debt sustainability. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.
Download or read book Switzerland written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-07 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth slowed in 2022 to 2.1 percent and should decline to 0.8 percent in 2023, with risks on the downside. Inflation was 2.9 percent in March and may remain above 2 percent until 2024, due to wage pressures and rent increases. The current account surplus is expected to moderate to 7.8 percent of GDP in 2023 (global slowdown, normalization of merchanting trade). The focus of fiscal policy has shifted to offsetting extraordinary outlays while addressing medium-term spending needs within the debtbrake rule. Monetary policy is focused on reducing inflation. Credit Suisse challenges led to state-facilitated acquisition by UBS. Otherwise, financial sector buffers remain strong, but risks have increased. Pension reforms and EU dialogue progressed. Challenges are aging and skill gaps, energy security, green transition, and geo-economic fragmentation.
Download or read book Singapore written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-08-29 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Singapore’s post pandemic recovery is nearly complete; underpinned by its strong economic fundamentals and the authorities’ decisive policies. While overall output surpassed pre-COVID levels in 2021, the growth momentum has slowed and activities in consumer-facing (except retail) and construction sectors remain below pre-pandemic levels. Inflation remains elevated but has started moderating. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, arising mainly from an abrupt global slowdown or a recession in Singapore’s largest trading partners, tighter global financial conditions, and a deepening of geoeconomic fragmentation.
