Download or read book Future Studies and Counterfactual Analysis written by Theodore J. Gordon and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-06-14 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this volume, the authors contribute to futures research by placing the counterfactual question in the future tense. They explore the possible outcomes of future, and consider how future decisions are turning points that may produce different global outcomes. This book focuses on a dozen or so intractable issues that span politics, religion, and technology, each addressed in individual chapters. Until now, most scenarios written by futurists have been built on cause and effect narratives or depended on numerical models derived from historical relationships. In contrast, many of the scenarios written for this book are point descriptions of future discontinuities, a form allows more thought-provoking presentations. Ultimately, this book demonstrates that counterfactual thinking and point scenarios of discontinuities are new, groundbreaking tools for futurists.
Download or read book Counterfactual Reasoning written by Ph D. Noel Hendrickson and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2011-09-16 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Counterfactual reasoning evaluates conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., ?What If? statements). Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis. The process of counterfactual reasoning has three stages. First, one must establish the particular way in which the alternate possibility comes to be (i.e., develop its ?back-story?). Second, one must evaluate the events that occur between the time of the alternate possibility and the time for which one is considering its consequences. And third, one must examine the possible consequences of the alternate possibility's back-story and the events that follow it. In doing so, an analyst must connect conclusions to speci
Download or read book Understanding Counterfactuals Understanding Causation written by Christoph Hoerl and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-11-03 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Twelve essays explore what bearing empirical findings might have on philosophical concerns about counterfactuals and causation, and how, in turn, work in philosophy might help clarify issues in empirical work on the relationships between causal and counterfactual thought.
Download or read book Possible Worlds Theory and Counterfactual Historical Fiction written by Riyukta Raghunath and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-10 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a comprehensive Possible Worlds framework with which to analyse counterfactual historical fiction. Counterfactual historical fiction is a literary genre that comprises narratives set in worlds whose histories run contrary to the history of our world, usually speculating on what would have happened had a significant historical event (such as a war) turned out differently. The author develops a systematic critical approach based on a customised model of Possible Worlds Theory supplemented by cognitive concepts that account for the different processes that readers go through when they read counterfactual historical fiction, a genre which relies heavily on pre-existing knowledge about history and culture. This book will be of interest to anyone working with Possible Worlds, including within the fields of philosophy, literary studies, stylistics, cognitive poetics, and narratology.
Download or read book Telling It Like It Wasn t written by Catherine Gallagher and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2018-01-26 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inventing counterfactual histories is a common pastime of modern day historians, both amateur and professional. We speculate about an America ruled by Jefferson Davis, a Europe that never threw off Hitler, or a second term for JFK. These narratives are often written off as politically inspired fantasy or as pop culture fodder, but in Telling It Like It Wasn’t, Catherine Gallagher takes the history of counterfactual history seriously, pinning it down as an object of dispassionate study. She doesn’t take a moral or normative stand on the practice, but focuses her attention on how it works and to what ends—a quest that takes readers on a fascinating tour of literary and historical criticism. Gallagher locates the origins of contemporary counterfactual history in eighteenth-century Europe, where the idea of other possible historical worlds first took hold in philosophical disputes about Providence before being repurposed by military theorists as a tool for improving the art of war. In the next century, counterfactualism became a legal device for deciding liability, and lengthy alternate-history fictions appeared, illustrating struggles for historical justice. These early motivations—for philosophical understanding, military improvement, and historical justice—are still evident today in our fondness for counterfactual tales. Alternate histories of the Civil War and WWII abound, but here, Gallagher shows how the counterfactual habit of replaying the recent past often shapes our understanding of the actual events themselves. The counterfactual mode lets us continue to envision our future by reconsidering the range of previous alternatives. Throughout this engaging and eye-opening book, Gallagher encourages readers to ask important questions about our obsession with counterfactual history and the roots of our tendency to ask “What if...?”
Download or read book Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 1996-09-08 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.
Download or read book Rational Techniques in Policy Analysis written by Michael Carley and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rational Techniques in Policy Analysis covers the role of rational techniques in policy making process. This book is organized into two parts encompassing 12 chapters that consider the relationship of policy making and other approaches to rational analysis. Part I deals with the "disintegration" of rational policy analysis to find out what the pieces are, how they work, how the parts interact and how they relate to the wider policy making environment. Part II considers the types of rational analysis in more detail, and serves not only as a survey of rational techniques but as an introduction to the important literature in each field. This part specifically looks into the cost-utility techniques, social forecasting, and evaluation and social indicator research. This book is intended primarily for analysts, researchers, and students of the policy making process in university and government.
Download or read book Reimagining Capitalism Applying Negative Dialectics for a Better Future written by David Atkinson and published by Vernon Press. This book was released on 2023-05-09 with total page 455 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Covid-19 pandemic reinforced the perception that capitalism is in crisis, that the future is volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous, and that, increasingly, our thinking about it and ability to manage and organize ourselves within it, are challenges we are ill-equipped for. Despite the efforts of many writers, and a surfeit of manuscripts concerning the need to rethink capitalism, questions concerning the struggle for social and economic justice remain unanswered. While some suggest that with corrective action, businesses can save the world, there is an acceptance that they cannot do so alone. However, while governments might strengthen their institutions, enacting more effective policies, the challenge is simply laid bare at the feet of industry and commerce. Is the challenge to confront the establishment just too big to face? Government institutions and the barons of industry and commerce are but interrelated, interconnected, interplaying components in one socio-economic system. This book offers readers a progressive, radical and academic provocation of that system; it also proposes a field of Applied Negative Dialectics. In 'Reimagining Capitalism', Atkinson confronts the need to rethink capitalism and presents an integrated range of thinking through a lens of applied negative dialectics, questioning how and why things might have occurred, and where and how we might begin to improve them.
Download or read book Causal Inference in Statistics written by Judea Pearl and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-25 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CAUSAL INFERENCE IN STATISTICS A Primer Causality is central to the understanding and use of data. Without an understanding of cause–effect relationships, we cannot use data to answer questions as basic as "Does this treatment harm or help patients?" But though hundreds of introductory texts are available on statistical methods of data analysis, until now, no beginner-level book has been written about the exploding arsenal of methods that can tease causal information from data. Causal Inference in Statistics fills that gap. Using simple examples and plain language, the book lays out how to define causal parameters; the assumptions necessary to estimate causal parameters in a variety of situations; how to express those assumptions mathematically; whether those assumptions have testable implications; how to predict the effects of interventions; and how to reason counterfactually. These are the foundational tools that any student of statistics needs to acquire in order to use statistical methods to answer causal questions of interest. This book is accessible to anyone with an interest in interpreting data, from undergraduates, professors, researchers, or to the interested layperson. Examples are drawn from a wide variety of fields, including medicine, public policy, and law; a brief introduction to probability and statistics is provided for the uninitiated; and each chapter comes with study questions to reinforce the readers understanding.
Download or read book Handbook of Interdisciplinary Teaching and Administration written by Rick Szostak and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2024-09-06 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Championing an emerging global community of scholars, this Handbook provides a detailed examination on how to successfully integrate interdisciplinarity into education programs. A comprehensive look into the current landscape of the field, it emphasises the importance of interdisciplinary teaching and administration in the development of creativity, citizenship and information literacy. This title contains one or more Open Access chapters.
Download or read book Handbook of Research on Strategy and Foresight written by Laura Anna Costanzo and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2009-03-31 with total page 569 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important Handbook explores and evaluates dynamic environments and the appropriate strategic responses to them in the 21st century. Drawing together a collection of 29 original chapters, the Handbook makes an invaluable contribution to theory and practice by stimulating disciplined, rigorous and imaginative enquiry into the relationship between strategy and foresight. Leading scholars in the field of strategic management are brought together to offer innovative and multi-disciplinary perspectives on the past, present and future of strategy formation and foresight. In so doing, they challenge research in four key areas: strategy and foresight processes; strategy innovation for the future; understanding the future; and strategically responding to the future. The Handbook of Research on Strategy and Foresight is a comprehensive resource that will be invaluable for academics, students and practitioners interested in this important phenomenon.
Download or read book Unmaking the West written by Philip Eyrikson Tetlock and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 9788472457904.txt
Download or read book Contemporary Topics in Finance written by Iris Claus and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-02-27 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The literature surveys presented in this edited volume provide readers with up-to-date reviews on eleven contemporary topics in finance. Topics include unconventional monetary policy, implicit bank guarantees, and financial fraud - all linked to the exceptional event of the Global Financial Crisis Explores how recent studies on inflation risk premia and finance and productivity have benefitted from new empirical methods and the availability of relevant data Demonstrates how angel investing, venture capital, relationship lending and microfinance have benefitted from increased research as they have become more seasoned Investigates crowdfunding and crypto-currencies which have both arisen from recent technological developments
Download or read book Making Sense of the Future written by Rick Szostak and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-09-02 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Making Sense of the Future integrates the latest thinking in Future Studies with the author’s expertise in world history, economics, interdisciplinary studies, knowledge organization, and political activism. The book takes a systems approach that recognizes the complexity of our world. It begins by suggesting a set of goals for human societies and identifying innovative strategies for achieving these goals that could gain broad support. Each chapter begins with a “How to” section that discusses how we can identify goals, strategies, trends, surprises, or implementation strategies and concludes with an integrative analysis that draws connections across the preceding discussions. Taking a cross-disciplinary approach, Szostak explores key trends and how these interact so that he can develop strategies to guide trends towards desirable futures. He discusses the ways in which we can best prepare for surprises such as epidemics and natural disasters, enabling us to react to them in beneficial ways. Supported by a list of guiding questions and suggestions for class projects, this is an accessible textbook for students of Future Studies and Future Studies courses. The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution- Non Commercial- No Derivatives 4.0 license.
Download or read book EU Cohesion Policy written by John Bachtler and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-10-26 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Open Access version of this book, available at http://www.tandfebooks.com/doi/view/10.4324/9781315401867, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 3.0 license. This book brings together academics, members of European institutions, and regional and national level policymakers in order to assess the performance and direction of EU Cohesion policy against the background of the most significant reforms to the policy in a generation. Responding to past criticisms of the effectiveness of the policy, the policy changes introduced in 2013 have aligned European Structural and Investment Funds with the Europe 2020 strategy and introduced measures to improve strategic coherence, performance and integrated development. EU Cohesion Policy: Reassessing performance and direction argues that policy can only be successfully developed and implemented if there is input from both academics and practitioners. The chapters in the book address four important issues: the effectiveness and impact of Cohesion policy at European, national and regional levels; the contribution of Cohesion policy to the Europe 2020 strategy of smart, sustainable and inclusive growth; the importance of quality of government and administrative capacity for the effective management of the Funds; and the inter-relationships between institutions, territory and place-based policies. The volume will be an invaluable resource to students, academics and policymakers across economics, regional studies, European studies and international relations.
Download or read book Capitalist Alternatives written by Paul Dragos Aligica and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-11-20 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book's objective is to explore the challenge of thinking methodically - in a theoretically and empirically informed way - about alternative forms of capitalism. What are the most effective ways to conceptualize the existing models of capitalism that have captured the public imagination and are currently floating around in the public debate? How can one mobilize empirical analysis and theory in thinking about the realm of possibilities and about the future of economic order, but avoid the twin perils of scientism and historicism? This book is an attempt to respond to these and related challenges. First, it delves into the substantive aspect of the debate, taking a closer look at a set of particular forms and models of capitalism that are currently discussed both in mass media and in academic circles as plausible, or at least possible, alternatives to the status quo: Crony, State, Regulatory, and Entrepreneurial Capitalisms. By elaborating and clarifying those models, it engages in a heuristic exercise that leads to a better understanding of the task of conceptualizing and assessing, in a theoretically informed way, the diversity of forms of capitalism. Second, the book takes a step further, looking at the epistemic, theoretical and methodological dimensions of the discussion: What is involved, more precisely, in our classifying and theorizing of capitalist systems and their historical evolution? What is the epistemic basis for building plausible conjectures about the future evolution of an economic system? What are the logical and methodological parameters of our endeavors that deal with economic systems, or with the problem of continuity and change in comparative economic systems? Offering an original approach to the problem of alternative forms of capitalism, this book will be of great interest to scholars working in the field of comparative political economy.
Download or read book Small Firms and U S Technology Policy written by Albert N. Link and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2023-03-02 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While much has been written about the U.S. Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program from both an institutional and a policy perspective, there remains a conspicuous void of general information about firms and research projects that are funded through the program. Providing a multi-dimensional picture of such firms and their projects, this incisive book is designed to help the reader understand in more depth the social benefits associated with the SBIR program.
