Download or read book From Unknown to Expert written by Catriona Pollard and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Experts in Uncertainty written by Roger Cooke and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1991 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
Download or read book Uncertain Judgements written by Anthony O'Hagan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-30 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.
Download or read book Expert Systems written by Cornelius T. Leondes and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2001-09-26 with total page 2125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This six-volume set presents cutting-edge advances and applications of expert systems. Because expert systems combine the expertise of engineers, computer scientists, and computer programmers, each group will benefit from buying this important reference work. An "expert system" is a knowledge-based computer system that emulates the decision-making ability of a human expert. The primary role of the expert system is to perform appropriate functions under the close supervision of the human, whose work is supported by that expert system. In the reverse, this same expert system can monitor and double check the human in the performance of a task. Human-computer interaction in our highly complex world requires the development of a wide array of expert systems. Expert systems techniques and applications are presented for a diverse array of topics including Experimental design and decision support The integration of machine learning with knowledge acquisition for the design of expert systems Process planning in design and manufacturing systems and process control applications Knowledge discovery in large-scale knowledge bases Robotic systems Geograhphic information systems Image analysis, recognition and interpretation Cellular automata methods for pattern recognition Real-time fault tolerant control systems CAD-based vision systems in pattern matching processes Financial systems Agricultural applications Medical diagnosis
Download or read book Unknown Untold and Unbelievable Stories of IU Sports written by John C. Decker and published by Indiana University Press. This book was released on 2018-07-11 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For over 125 years, Hoosier athletes and coaches have grabbed headlines with their accomplishments and accolades. Legendary performers and larger-than-life figures have called Bloomington home, and their stories have been passed down through generations. But for every classic tale about a Hoosier athlete, coach, or program, there's another that's been forgotten. Until now. After gaining unprecedented access to IU archives and longtime employees, authors John Decker, Pete DiPrimio, and Doug Wilson reveal events and images that were lost for decades. Filled with new and entertaining stories of the people who have made IU Athletics legendary, Unknown, Untold, and Unbelievable Stories of IU Sports is a must-have for any fan. Discover behind-the-scenes stories of the Olympic Trials featuring Michael Jordan, Patrick Ewing, Chris Mullin, and Steve Alford; the infamous 1997 black football jerseys; Ernie Pyle's outlandish automobile polo match to raise funds for the IU marching band; A. J. Moye's notorious block against Duke; the time Sam Bell won the bid for an NCAA track meet—without a facility or even bleachers; and many more incredible stories from the renowned IU Athletics program.
Download or read book The Death of Expertise written by Tom Nichols and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2024 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In the early 1990s, a small group of "AIDS denialists," including a University of California professor named Peter Duesberg, argued against virtually the entire medical establishment's consensus that the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was the cause of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome. Science thrives on such counterintuitive challenges, but there was no evidence for Duesberg's beliefs, which turned out to be baseless. Once researchers found HIV, doctors and public health officials were able to save countless lives through measures aimed at preventing its transmission"--
Download or read book Surfaces and Essences written by Douglas R Hofstadter and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2013-04-23 with total page 594 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analogy is the core of all thinking. This is the simple but unorthodox premise that Pulitzer Prize -- winning author Douglas Hofstadter and French psychologist Emmanuel Sander defend in their new work. Hofstadter has been grappling with the mysteries of human thought for over thirty years. Now, with his trademark wit and special talent for making complex ideas vivid, he has partnered with Sander to put forth a highly novel perspective on cognition. We are constantly faced with a swirling and intermingling multitude of ill-defined situations. Our brain's job is to try to make sense of this unpredictable, swarming chaos of stimuli. How does it do so? The ceaseless hail of input triggers analogies galore, helping us to pinpoint the essence of what is going on. Often this means the spontaneous evocation of words, sometimes idioms, sometimes the triggering of nameless, long-buried memories. Why did two-year-old Camille proudly exclaim, "I undressed the banana!"? Why do people who hear a story often blurt out, "Exactly the same thing happened to me!" when it was a completely different event? How do we recognize an aggressive driver from a split-second glance in our rearview mirror? What in a friend's remark triggers the offhand reply, "That's just sour grapes"? What did Albert Einstein see that made him suspect that light consists of particles when a century of research had driven the final nail in the coffin of that long-dead idea? The answer to all these questions, of course, is analogy-making -- the meat and potatoes, the heart and soul, the fuel and fire, the gist and the crux, the lifeblood and the wellsprings of thought. Analogy-making, far from happening at rare intervals, occurs at all moments, defining thinking from top to toe, from the tiniest and most fleeting thoughts to the most creative scientific insights. Like Gö, Escher, Bach before it, Surfaces and Essences will profoundly enrich our understanding of our own minds. By plunging the reader into an extraordinary variety of colorful situations involving language, thought, and memory, by revealing bit by bit the constantly churning cognitive mechanisms normally completely hidden from view, and by discovering in them one central, invariant core -- the incessant, unconscious quest for strong analogical links to past experiences -- this book puts forth a radical and deeply surprising new vision of the act of thinking.
Download or read book On Combining Experts Assessments written by Heleno Bolfarine and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The First 20 Hours written by Josh Kaufman and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2013-06-13 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forget the 10,000 hour rule— what if it’s possible to learn the basics of any new skill in 20 hours or less? Take a moment to consider how many things you want to learn to do. What’s on your list? What’s holding you back from getting started? Are you worried about the time and effort it takes to acquire new skills—time you don’t have and effort you can’t spare? Research suggests it takes 10,000 hours to develop a new skill. In this nonstop world when will you ever find that much time and energy? To make matters worse, the early hours of practicing something new are always the most frustrating. That’s why it’s difficult to learn how to speak a new language, play an instrument, hit a golf ball, or shoot great photos. It’s so much easier to watch TV or surf the web . . . In The First 20 Hours, Josh Kaufman offers a systematic approach to rapid skill acquisition— how to learn any new skill as quickly as possible. His method shows you how to deconstruct complex skills, maximize productive practice, and remove common learning barriers. By completing just 20 hours of focused, deliberate practice you’ll go from knowing absolutely nothing to performing noticeably well. Kaufman personally field-tested the methods in this book. You’ll have a front row seat as he develops a personal yoga practice, writes his own web-based computer programs, teaches himself to touch type on a nonstandard keyboard, explores the oldest and most complex board game in history, picks up the ukulele, and learns how to windsurf. Here are a few of the simple techniques he teaches: Define your target performance level: Figure out what your desired level of skill looks like, what you’re trying to achieve, and what you’ll be able to do when you’re done. The more specific, the better. Deconstruct the skill: Most of the things we think of as skills are actually bundles of smaller subskills. If you break down the subcomponents, it’s easier to figure out which ones are most important and practice those first. Eliminate barriers to practice: Removing common distractions and unnecessary effort makes it much easier to sit down and focus on deliberate practice. Create fast feedback loops: Getting accurate, real-time information about how well you’re performing during practice makes it much easier to improve. Whether you want to paint a portrait, launch a start-up, fly an airplane, or juggle flaming chainsaws, The First 20 Hours will help you pick up the basics of any skill in record time . . . and have more fun along the way.
Download or read book The Book of Unknown Americans written by Cristina Henríquez and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2014-06-03 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A stunning novel of hopes and dreams, guilt and love—a book that offers a resonant new definition of what it means to be American and "illuminates the lives behind the current debates about Latino immigration" (The New York Times Book Review). When fifteen-year-old Maribel Rivera sustains a terrible injury, the Riveras leave behind a comfortable life in Mexico and risk everything to come to the United States so that Maribel can have the care she needs. Once they arrive, it’s not long before Maribel attracts the attention of Mayor Toro, the son of one of their new neighbors, who sees a kindred spirit in this beautiful, damaged outsider. Their love story sets in motion events that will have profound repercussions for everyone involved. Here Henríquez seamlessly interweaves the story of these star-crossed lovers, and of the Rivera and Toro families, with the testimonials of men and women who have come to the United States from all over Latin America.
Download or read book A Journey Through The Universe written by New Scientist and published by Nicholas Brealey. This book was released on 2018-08-07 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There's a whole universe out there ... and this book is your journey into space. Imagine you had a spacecraft capable of travelling through interstellar space. You climb in, blast into orbit, fly out of the solar system and keep going. Where do you end up, and what do you see along the way? The answer is: mostly nothing. Space is astonishingly, mind-blowingly empty. As you travel through the void between galaxies your spaceship encounters nothing more exciting than the odd hydrogen molecule. But when it does come across something more exotic: wow! First and most obviously, stars and planets. Some are familiar from our own backyard: yellow suns, rocky planets like Mars, gas and ice giants like Jupiter and Neptune. But there are many more: giant stars, red and white dwarfs, super-earths and hot Jupiters. Elsewhere are swirling clouds of dust giving birth to stars, and infinitely dense regions of space-time called black holes. These clump together in the star clusters we call galaxies, and the clusters of galaxies we call... galaxy clusters. And that is just the start. As we travel further we encounter ever more weird, wonderful and dangerous entities: supernovas, supermassive black holes, quasars, pulsars, neutron stars, black dwarfs, quark stars, gamma ray bursts and cosmic strings. A Journey Through The Universe is a grand tour of the most amazing celestial objects and how they fit together to build the cosmos. As for the end of the journey - nobody knows. But getting there will be fun.
Download or read book Model Rules of Professional Conduct written by American Bar Association. House of Delegates and published by American Bar Association. This book was released on 2007 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Model Rules of Professional Conduct provides an up-to-date resource for information on legal ethics. Federal, state and local courts in all jurisdictions look to the Rules for guidance in solving lawyer malpractice cases, disciplinary actions, disqualification issues, sanctions questions and much more. In this volume, black-letter Rules of Professional Conduct are followed by numbered Comments that explain each Rule's purpose and provide suggestions for its practical application. The Rules will help you identify proper conduct in a variety of given situations, review those instances where discretionary action is possible, and define the nature of the relationship between you and your clients, colleagues and the courts.
Download or read book Handbook of Computational Statistics written by James E. Gentle and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-07-06 with total page 1180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook of Computational Statistics - Concepts and Methods (second edition) is a revision of the first edition published in 2004, and contains additional comments and updated information on the existing chapters, as well as three new chapters addressing recent work in the field of computational statistics. This new edition is divided into 4 parts in the same way as the first edition. It begins with "How Computational Statistics became the backbone of modern data science" (Ch.1): an overview of the field of Computational Statistics, how it emerged as a separate discipline, and how its own development mirrored that of hardware and software, including a discussion of current active research. The second part (Chs. 2 - 15) presents several topics in the supporting field of statistical computing. Emphasis is placed on the need for fast and accurate numerical algorithms, and some of the basic methodologies for transformation, database handling, high-dimensional data and graphics treatment are discussed. The third part (Chs. 16 - 33) focuses on statistical methodology. Special attention is given to smoothing, iterative procedures, simulation and visualization of multivariate data. Lastly, a set of selected applications (Chs. 34 - 38) like Bioinformatics, Medical Imaging, Finance, Econometrics and Network Intrusion Detection highlight the usefulness of computational statistics in real-world applications.
Download or read book Creating Thought Leaders Tweet Book01 written by Mitchell Levy and published by Happy About. This book was released on 2013 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In today's world where an organization's prospect has access to more information about the industry, key firms within that industry, and customer testimonials of those using products and services from companies in the industry, how can any organization stand out? In some industries, buyers have conducted 75 percent of their research on the Internet prior to talking to any firms to make their purchasing decisions. How do you make sure that you are not only at the table, but have a strong seat at it? It's simple. Two words: "thought leadership." With the changing environment that the Internet and social media is bringing about, it's not as much about the global organization, but the individual experts turned thought leaders in the organizations whose names you associate with expertise in their respective niches. These thought leaders are being helped by their organizations to crowdsource books and eBooks, write articles, blog, tweet, speak at conferences and webinars, as well as to get quoted in traditional media on events and trends in the marketplace. Through them, the organizations' messages are being amplified in the marketplace. "#CREATING THOUGHT LEADERS tweet Book01" helps the experts inside organizations think about and act on becoming thought leaders. Sections of the book include: why organizations should do it, what does it take, who else has made the transition, benefits they will receive, how they need to craft and define their message, and what H.E.L.P. they need to get to get to the next level. If you are tapped by your organization to be a thought leader or are considering just diving in and taking the lead yourself, this book is for you. This aha from the beginning of the book should appeal to the organization: "Prospects making purchasing decisions are looking for thought leaders in their space to learn from before taking action" (#54). The last aha of this book should appeal to the expert: "Being a thought leader is one of the most rewarding positions to be in life. Why not work to make it yours!" (#140). You owe it to yourself to pick up and read this book ... more than once! "#CREATING THOUGHT LEADERS tweet Book01" by "Mitchell Levy " is part of the THiNKaha series whose slim and handy books contain 140 well-thought-out quotes (tweets/ahas).
Download or read book Global Risk Management written by Louise K. Comfort and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-08-31 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rise and spread of Covid-19 in the beginning of 2020 presents a once-in-a-century challenge and opportunity for decision makers, managers, scholars, and citizens to understand the risks, mitigate its impact and prepare for future crises. Drawing on a global network of scholars, this book presents a comparative analysis of ten nations’ response to a global pandemic, while operating nominally under the framework of the World Health Organization. The book introduces the concept of ‘collective cognition’ as an analytic lens for examining the nations’ response to Covid-19 during the first six months of the emerging pandemic (January – June 2020) and draws out insights for improving systems of global risk management. This book addresses four primary audiences: policy-makers and leaders in nations struggling to contain viruses while guiding their societies under threat; academic researchers, students, and educators engaged in preparing the next generation of professionals committed to investigating emerging risk: managers of non-profit and private organizations that operate and maintain the networks of social, technical, and economic services that are essential to functioning communities; and the informed general public interested in understanding this extraordinary sequence of events and in managing the novel risk of COVID-19 in a more informed, responsible way.
Download or read book California Court of Appeal 4th Appellate District Division 2 Records and Briefs written by California (State). and published by . This book was released on with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Modern Farmer and Busy Bee written by and published by . This book was released on 1893 with total page 622 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
