Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Download or read book Income Distribution Inflation and Growth written by Lance Taylor and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1991 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structuralist macroeconomics has emerged recently as the only viable theoretical alternative for economists and practitioners in developing countries. Lance Taylor's innovative work represents a landmark in this field. It codifies a new generation of structuralist macroeconomic models that incorporate the economic power relationships of key institutions and groups, integrates both finance and real macroeconomics, and covers a diverse range of experience in the developing world over the past three decades. In an introduction Taylor explains his methodology, describes assumptions underlying the models used, and reviews theories that relate economic growth and the role of financial assets. He then takes up basic structuralist models of a closed economy and moves on to consider the open economy cases. He incorporates the latest developments in the field (inflation, financial crisis, exchange rate management, increasing returns, and the like) in a treatment that departs substantially from economic orthodoxy. Taylor first addresses the question of how to specify "closure" or define the causal structure of macro models. He also considers how income redistribution influences growth and output and how income redistribution interacts with inflation. Next, an investment-driven non-full employment growth model draws on ideas introduced earlier to illustrate how different sorts of macroeconomic policies affect short-run adjustment and growth prospects over time. Taylor then turns to the problems proposed by economic openness in a stylized semi-industrialized country, starting with international trade. A fix-price/flex-price model is developed, and additional models demonstrate cases of policy relevance as well as interactions between class conflict and growth.

Download or read book Productivity Growth Inflation and Unemployment written by Robert James Gordon and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Publisher Description

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book Monetary Theory written by Robert A. Mundell and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation Disinflation and Growth written by Mr.Atish R. Ghosh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-05-01 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although few would doubt that very high inflation is bad for growth, there is much less agreement about moderate inflation’s effects. Using panel regressions and a nonlinear specification, this paper finds a statistically and economically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth. This relationship holds at all but the lowest inflation rates and is robust across various samples and specifications. The method of binary recursive trees identifies inflation as one the most important statistical determinants of growth. Finally, while there are short-run growth costs of disinflation, these are only relevant for the most severe disinflations, or when the initial inflation rate is well within the single-digit range.

Download or read book Estimating The Inflation Growth Nexus A Smooth Transition Model written by Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by the global inflation episode of 2007-08 and concern that high levels of inflation could undermine growth, this paper uses a panel of 165 countries and data for 1960-2007 to revisit the nexus between inflation and growth. We use a smooth transition model to investigate the speed at which inflation beyond a threshold becomes harmful to growth, an important consideration in the policy response to rising inflation as the world economy recovers. We estimate that for all country groups (except for advanced countries) inflation above a threshold of about 10 percent quickly becomes harmful to growth, suggesting the need for a prompt policy response to inflation at or above the relevant threshold. For the advanced economies, the threshold is much lower. For oil exporting countries, the estimates are less robust, possibly reflecting heterogeneity among oil producers, but the effect of higher inflation for oil producers is found to be stronger.

Download or read book From Inflation to Growth written by Mr.Peter Doyle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-07-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reexamines growth in transition using panel data to 1997. It suggests that output has been strongly affected by export market growth; that inflation has been associated with weaker output only above a threshold inflation rate; that structural reform has been associated with weaker output initially, but that it stimulates higher growth thereafter; and that rapid disinflation has been associated with output losses only in the presence of pegged exchange rates.

Download or read book Nonlinear Effects of Inflationon Economic Growth written by Mr.Michael Sarel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-06-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the possibility of nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. It finds evidence of a significant structural break in the function that relates economic growth to inflation. The break is estimated to occur when the inflation rate is 8 percent. Below that rate, inflation does not have any effect on growth, or it may even have a slightly positive effect. When the inflation rate is above 8 percent, however, the estimated effect of inflation on growth rates is significant, robust and extremely powerful. The paper also demonstrates that when the existence of the structural break is ignored, the estimated effect of inflation on growth is biased by a factor of three.

Download or read book Inflation Crises and Long run Growth written by Michael Bruno and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent literature suggests that long-run averages of growth and inflation are only weakly correlated and such correlation is not robust to exclusion of extreme inflation observations; inclusion of time series panel data has improved matters, but an aggregate parametric approach remains inconclusive. We propose a nonparametric definition of high inflation crises as periods when inflation is above 40 percent annually. Excluding countries with high inflation crises, we find no evidence of any consistent relationship between growth and inflation at any frequency. However, we find that growth falls sharply during discrete high inflation crises, then recovers surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. The fall in growth during crisis and recovery of growth after crisis tend to average out to close to zero (even slightly above zero), hence the lack of a robust cross-section correlation. Our findings could be consistent either with trend stationarity of output, in which inflation crises are purely cyclical phenomena, or with models in which crises have a favorable long-run purgative effect. Our findings do not support the view that reduction of high inflation carries heavy short-to-medium run output costs.

Download or read book How Economic Growth and Inflation Happen written by George T Edwards and published by Springer. This book was released on 1984-03-08 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation Growth and International Finance written by Alec Cairncross and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-04-20 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, originally published in 1975, deals with the sources of economic growth, inflation and the prospects of bringing it under control, floating exchange rates and restrictions on international capital movements. Although aimed at the non-specialist, professional economists willa slo find the book stimulating.

Download or read book IMF Staff Papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1963-01-01 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses effects of inflation on economic development. A mild inflation may well encourage little, or no, evasion of the “inflation tax.” On the other hand, a strong inflation, and frequently a mild one also, will lead to community reactions which have effects like those of widespread tax evasion. A development policy may have wider aims than the encouragement of a high level of investment. Inflation has two effects on the desire for liquidity, which are related to the two basic reasons why individuals and businesses wish to hold liquid assets—the speculative and precautionary motives. Inflation increases the value of effective liquidity, thereby raising the community's desire for it, but it makes the most generally accepted store of liquidity unacceptable sources of protection. The control of inflation is only one of the problems facing a government wishing to encourage rapid economic development. The fight against illiteracy, the reform of bureaucratic practices, the building of basic sanitary facilities for the eradication of endemic diseases, the substitution of competitive for monopolistic trade practices, the encouragement of a widespread spirit of entrepreneurship, and the creation of an adequate amount of social capital, may be important prerequisites for rapid growth.

Download or read book Exports Inflation and Growth written by Thorvaldur Gylfason and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-09-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper identifies some of the main determinants of exports and economic growth in cross-sectional data from the World Bank, covering 160 countries in the period 1985-1994. First, the linkages between the propensity to export and population, per capita income, agriculture, primary exports, and inflation are studied by statistical methods. Then, the relationship between economic growth and some of the above-mentioned determinants of exports and investment are scrutinized the same way. The main conclusion is that, in the period under review, high inflation and an abundance of natural resources tended to be associated with low exports and slow growth.

Download or read book Inflation Anchoring and Growth Evidence from Sectoral Data written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-02 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Central bankers often assert that low inflation and anchoring of inflation expectations are good for economic growth (Bernanke 2007, Plosser 2007). We test this claim using panel data on sectoral growth for 22 manufacturing industries for 36 advanced and emerging market economies over the period 1990-2014. Inflation anchoring in each country is measured as the response of inflation expectations to inflation surprises (Levin et al., 2004). We find that credit constrained industries—those characterized by high external financial dependence and R&D intensity and low asset tangibility—tend to grow faster in countries with well-anchored inflation expectations. The results are robust to controlling for the interaction between these characteristics and a broad set of macroeconomic variables over the sample period, such as financial development, inflation, the size of government, overall economic growth, monetary policy counter-cyclicality and the level of inflation. Importantly, the results suggest that it is inflation anchoring and not the level of inflation per se that has a significant effect on average industry growth. Finally, the results are robust to IV techniques, using as instruments indicators of monetary policy transparency and independence.

Download or read book Does Inflation Slow Long Run Growth in India written by Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-15 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the long-run relationship between consumer price index industrial workers (CPI-IW) inflation and GDP growth in India. We collect data on a sample of 14 Indian states over the period 1989–2013, and use the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CSDL) approach of Chudik et al. (2013) as well as the standard panel ARDL method for estimation—to account for cross-state heterogeneity and dependence, dynamics and feedback effects. Our findings suggest that, on average, there is a negative long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth in India. We also find statistically-significant inflation-growth threshold effects in the case of states with persistently-elevated inflation rates of above 5.5 percent. This suggest the need for the Reserve Bank of India to balance the short-term growthinflation trade-off, in light of the long-term negative effects on growth of persistently-high inflation.