Download or read book Foundations of Decision Analysis written by Ronald A. Howard and published by . This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For courses in Decision Making and Engineering. The Fundamentals of Analyzing and Making Decisions Foundations of Decision Analysis is a groundbreaking text that explores the art of decision making, both in life and in professional settings. By exploring themes such as dealing with uncertainty and understanding the distinction between a decision and its outcome, the First Edition teaches readers to achieve clarity of action in any situation. The book treats decision making as an evolutionary process from a scientific standpoint. Strategic decision-making analysis is presented as a tool to help students understand, discuss, and settle on important life choices. Through this text, readers will understand the specific thought process that occurs behind approaching any decision to make easier and better life choices for themselves.
Download or read book Foundations of Decision Analysis Global Edition written by Ali E. Abbas and published by . This book was released on 2015-01-28 with total page 832 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text explores the art of decision making, both in life and in professional settings. By exploring themes such as dealing with uncertainty and understanding the distinction between a decision and its outcome, the first edition teaches students to achieve clarity of action in any situation. The book treats decision making as an evolutionary process from a scientific standpoint. Strategic decision-making analysis is presented as a tool to help students understand, discuss, and settle on important life choices. Through this text, students will understand the specific thought process that occurs behind approaching any decision to make easier and better life choices for themselves.
Download or read book Foundations of Decision Analysis written by William J. Whitty and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Advances in Decision Analysis written by Ward Edwards and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2007-07-30 with total page 638 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts. Not a single book covers the broad scope of decision analysis at this advanced level. It will be a valuable resource for academics and students in decision analysis as well as decision analysts and managers
Download or read book Foundations of Risk Analysis written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-02-02 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis – understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.
Download or read book Foundations of Neuroeconomic Analysis written by Paul W. Glimcher and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2011 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Neuroeconomics has emerged at the border of the social and natural sciences. This book argues that a meaningful interdisciplinary synthesis of the study of human and animal choice is not only desirable, but also well underway, and so it is time to develop formally a foundational approach for the field.
Download or read book Scientific and Behavioral Foundations for Decision Analysis written by American Institute for Decision Sciences. Southeast Region and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 490 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Foundations of Risk Analysis written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-01-09 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis ? expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making. Presents a statistical framework for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Includes detailed coverage of building and applying risk models and methods. Offers new perspectives on risk, risk assessment and the use of parametric probability models. Highlights a number of applications from business and industry. Adopts a conceptual approach based on elementary probability calculus and statistical theory. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.
Download or read book Fundamentals of Decision Making and Priority Theory With the Analytic Hierarchy Process written by Thomas L. Saaty and published by RWS Publications. This book was released on with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a comprehensive summary, primarily of the author's own thinking and research, about the Analytic Hierarchy Process and decision making. It includes advanced mathematical theory and diverse applications. Fundamentals of Decision Making has all the latest theoretical developments in the AHP and new theoretical material not published elsewhere. We consider this book to be the replacement for the original book on the subject, The Analytic Hierarchy Process that was published by McGraw Hill Publishers, New York.
Download or read book Improving Homeland Security Decisions written by Ali E. Abbas and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-02 with total page 787 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are we safer from terrorism today and is our homeland security money well spent? This book offers answers and more.
Download or read book Decision Analysis for Management Judgment written by Paul Goodwin and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 482 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edition integrates the latest decision analysis material from a range of disciplines including OR, Statistics and Psychology. The authors make it accessible to its largest group of potential users: managers and administrators in business and public sector organizations. It shows how difficult decisions can be made with greater insight and confidence and challenges the adequacy of making decisions on the basis of intuition alone.
Download or read book Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks written by Norman Fenton and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2012-11-07 with total page 527 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although many Bayesian Network (BN) applications are now in everyday use, BNs have not yet achieved mainstream penetration. Focusing on practical real-world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide powerful insights and better decision making. Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed The book first establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using BN models, then goes into the detailed applications. The underlying BN algorithms appear in appendices rather than the main text since there is no need to understand them to build and use BN models. Keeping the body of the text free of intimidating mathematics, the book provides pragmatic advice about model building to ensure models are built efficiently. A dedicated website, www.BayesianRisk.com, contains executable versions of all of the models described, exercises and worked solutions for all chapters, PowerPoint slides, numerous other resources, and a free downloadable copy of the AgenaRisk software.
Download or read book The Decision Intelligence Handbook written by L. Y. Pratt and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2023-06-21 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision intelligence (DI) has been widely named as a top technology trend for several years, and Gartner reports that more than a third of large organizations are adopting it. Some even say that DI is the next step in the evolution of AI. Many software vendors offer DI solutions today, as they help organizations implement their evidence-based or data-driven decision strategies. But until now, there has been little practical guidance for organizations to formalize decision making and integrate their decisions with data. With this book, authors L. Y. Pratt and N. E. Malcolm fill this gap. They present a step-by-step method for integrating technology into decisions that bridge from actions to desired outcomes, with a focus on systems that act in an advisory, human-in-the-loop capacity to decision makers. This handbook addresses three widespread data-driven decision-making problems: How can decision makers use data and technology to ensure desired outcomes? How can technology teams communicate effectively with decision makers to maximize the return on their data and technology investments? How can organizational decision makers assess and improve their decisions over time?
Download or read book Decision Analysis written by Fouad Sabry and published by One Billion Knowledgeable. This book was released on 2023-06-27 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What Is Decision Analysis The term "decision analysis" (DA) refers to the academic field that encompasses the theory, technique, and professional practice that are required to tackle significant decisions in an organized fashion. It is possible to prescribe a recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected-utility axiom to a well-formed representation of the decision. Additionally, decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for translating the formal representation of a decision and its corresponding recommendation into insight for the decision maker, as well as for other corporate and non-corporate stakeholders. How You Will Benefit (I) Insights, and validations about the following topics: Chapter 1: Decision Analysis Chapter 2: Decision Theory Chapter 3: Multiple-criteria Decision Analysis Chapter 4: Expected Value of Sample Information Chapter 5: Decision-making Software Chapter 6: Robust Decision-making Chapter 7: Expected Value of Including Uncertainty Chapter 8: Decision Quality Chapter 9: Value Tree Analysis Chapter 10: Bayesian Inference in Marketing (II) Answering the public top questions about decision analysis. (III) Real world examples for the usage of decision analysis in many fields. (IV) 17 appendices to explain, briefly, 266 emerging technologies in each industry to have 360-degree full understanding of decision analysis' technologies. Who This Book Is For Professionals, undergraduate and graduate students, enthusiasts, hobbyists, and those who want to go beyond basic knowledge or information for any kind of decision analysis.
Download or read book Decision Making for Enhanced Health Security written by Gilberto Montibeller and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-06-06 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Health threats pose significant dangers to humankind and form a major source of human suffering and sorrow. Responsible leadership and reasoned decision making can significantly improve the arenas that are affected by health threats, through establishing a better allocation of very scarce resources for building health capabilities and for increasing health preparedness, responsiveness and resilience. This book examines how public health leaders can use the cutting-edge research from Decision Sciences to better manage emerging and re-emerging health threats, with a focus on enhancing health security. While these decisions must be informed by the best available evidence, they must also address competing priorities and key uncertainties and must mitigate critical risks, albeit in a cost-effective manner which seeks to maximize societal value. This is a book about how decisions on health security can be improved, both in terms of the content that is utilized in a health decision analysis and the decision processes that are employed in reaching a decision. This decision-focused perspective can help public health leaders and public health experts to increase the health preparedness of health systems, the task of which involves improving health capabilities, increasing the robustness of health systems against health threats, as well as strengthening health resilience and the responsiveness of these systems against disease outbreaks.
Download or read book Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making written by Leonard C. MacLean and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013 with total page 941 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).
Download or read book Rational Choice and Judgment written by Rex Brown and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-05-06 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The tools needed to make a better, more informed decision. Decision analysis (DA) is the logic of making a decision using quantitative models of the decider's factual and value judgments. DA is already widely used in business, government, medicine, economics, law, and science. However, most resources present only the logic and models rather than demonstrating how these methods can be effectively applied to the real world. This book offers an innovative approach to decision analysis by focusing on decision-making tools that can be utilized immediately to make better, more informed decisions. It uses no mathematics beyond arithmetic. Examining how deciders think about their choices, this book provides problem-solving techniques that not only reflect sound modeling but also meet other essential requirements: they build on the thinking and knowledge that deciders already possess; they provide knowledge in a form that people are able and willing to provide; they produce results that the decider can use; and they are based on intimate and continuous interactions with the decider. The methods outlined in this text take into account such factors as the use, the user, the organization, available data, and subjective knowledge. Replete with exercises, case studies, and observations from the author’s own extensive consulting experience, the book quickly engages readers and enables them to master decision analysis by doing rather than by simply reading. Using familiar situations, it demonstrates how to handle knowledge as it unfolds in the real world. A term project is presented in the final chapter, in which readers can select an actual decision-making problem and apply their newfound tools to prepare a recommendation. A sample report is provided in the appendix. Beginning with qualitative structuring, the text advances to sophisticated quantitative skills that can be applied in both public and private enterprise, including: · Modeling decision-making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives Risk analysis and assessment Communicating and justifying controversial decisions Personal life choices and political judgments Adapting decision aid to organizations The book's broad applicability makes it an excellent resource for any organization or as a textbook for decision-making courses in a variety of fields, including public policy, business management, systems engineering and general education. An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department.
