Download or read book FUSE Foresight driven Understanding Strategy and Execution written by Devadas Krishnadas and published by Marshall Cavendish International Asia Pte Ltd. This book was released on 2015-07-15 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most existing businesses plan for a world that is straightforward and static. Unfortunately, the world does not work that way. In an increasingly complex and uncertain world, FUSE provides a way to tackle problems whilst incorporating uncertainty into our analyses. This book: Shows how to make decisions in the present to better affect your future Explains why foresight is important even when struggling with day-to-day operations Describes how to best harvest the daily deluge of information from your internal and external environment Offers a process-driven way of thinking about strategy that places principles at its very core Highlights the importance of retaining flexibility and agility to adapt when things go wrong. Written by renowned strategist and thinker Devadas Krishnadas, FUSE is a valuable tool for any business leader, manager or strategist.

Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Download or read book Hindsight Insight Foresight Thinking About Security in the Indo Pacific written by Alexander L. Vuving and published by Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. This book was released on 2020-09-30 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hindsight, Insight, Foresight is a tour d’horizon of security issues in the Indo-Pacific. Written by 20 current and former members of the faculty at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, its 21 chapters provide hindsight, insight, and foresight on numerous aspects of security in the region. This book will help readers to understand the big picture, grasp the changing faces, and comprehend the local dynamics of regional security.

Download or read book Thinking about the Future written by Hines Andy and published by . This book was released on 2015-10-10 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thinking about the Future distills the expertise of three dozen senior foresight professionals into a set of essential guidelines for carrying out successful strategic foresight. Presented in a highly scannable yet personable style, each guideline includes an explanation and rationale, key steps, a case example, and resources for further study.

Download or read book The Signal and the Noise written by Nate Silver and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-02-03 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

Download or read book Judgments over Time written by Lawrence J. Sanna and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-03-16 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time pervades every aspect of people's lives. We are all affected by remnants of our pasts, assessments of our presents, and forecasts of our futures. Our thoughts, feelings, and behaviors over time inexorably intertwine and intermingle, determining varied reactions such as affect and emotions, as well as future behaviors. The purpose of this volume is to bring together the diverse theory and research of an outstanding group of scholars whose work relates to peoples judgements over time. To date, much theory and research on temporal variables within psychology has remained somewhat fragmented, isolated, and even provincial--researchers in particular domains are either unaware of or are paying little attention to each other's work. Integrating the theory and research into a single volume will bring about a greater awareness and appreciation of conceptual relations between seemingly disparate topics, define and promote the state of scientific knowledge in these areas, and set the agenda for future work. The volume presents the two main ways of looking at judgments over time: looking at how people's thoughts about the future and the past affect their present states, and looking at the interplay over time among people's thoughts, feelings, and behaviors.

Download or read book Applying Decision Research to Improve Clinical Outcomes Psychological Assessment and Clinical Prediction written by David Faust and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2024-03-26 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mental health professionals often must make judgments or decisions involving vital matters. Is an individual likely to act violently? Has a child been sexually abused? Is a police officer fit to carry a gun? An explosion of research in clinical and cognitive psychology provides practical means for enhancing the accuracy of clinical decision making and prediction and thereby improving outcomes and the quality of care. Unfortunately, this research has not been broadly disseminated in the mental health field. The book is designed to familiarize readers with essential findings from decision science and its practical, immediate applications in the mental health field.

Download or read book Matthew Baker Exegetical Commentary on the New Testament written by David L. Turner and published by Baker Academic. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 1109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New Testament scholar and professor David L. Turner offers a substantive yet highly accessible commentary on Matthew in this latest addition to the BECNT series. With extensive research and thoughtful chapter-by-chapter exegesis, Turner leads readers through all aspects of the Gospel of Matthew--sociological, historical, and theological--to help them better understand and explain this key New Testament book. He also includes important insights into the Jewish background of this Gospel. As with all BECNT volumes, Matthew features the author's detailed interaction with the Greek text. This commentary admirably achieves the dual aims of the series--academic sophistication with pastoral sensitivity and accessibility--making it a useful tool for students, professors, and pastors. The user-friendly design includes shaded-text chapter introductions summarizing the key themes of each thought unit.

Download or read book The Self in Social Judgment written by Mark D. Alicke and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2013-05-13 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volume begins with a historical overview of the self in social judgment and outlines the major issues. Subsequent chapters, all written by leading experts in their respective areas, identify and elaborate four major themes regarding the self in social judgment: · the role of the self as an information source for evaluating others, or what has been called 'social projection' · the assumption of personal superiority as reflected in the pervasive tendency for people to view their characteristics more favorably than those of others · the role of the self as a comparison standard from or toward which other people's behaviors and attributes are assimilated or contrasted · the relative weight people place on the individual and collective selves in defining their attributes and comparing them to those of other people

Download or read book PREPPERS HISTORY AND THE CULTURAL PHENOMENON written by Lynda King and published by Prepper Press. This book was released on 2014-08-07 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The word ‘prepper’ seems to have burst onto the scene within the last 10 years, and has increasingly become associated with “fringe” extremists. They have been labeled by some as “domestic terrorists.” But is prepping a new phenomenon? Or is it a manifestation of a growing collective psyche that has learned, from traumatic events throughout our history, that preparedness is critical to human survival? For new preppers who think the worst is yet to come, this book offers a walk through history that shows the worst has been here before. For those who wonder why so many people are concerned about being prepared, this book will show that when the worst has made an appearance, those who weathered it best were those who were prepared. For those already familiar with history’s worst who think, “THAT will never happen again!”—this book offers a reminder of the Wall Street adage: “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” For those who wonder what a prepper is, this book offers a look at what they used to be—and what they are today.

Download or read book A Logic Named Joe written by Murray Leinster and published by Baen Books. This book was released on 2005 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Three complete novels, one of them a Hugo Award finalist, with a number of short stories.

Download or read book Behavioral Decision Theory written by E. C. Poulton and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1994-09-30 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book describes the errors that people commonly make in dealing with probabilities. They include both the errors that are now well recognised like overconfidence, and the errors that investigators may themselves introduce without realising it.

Download or read book How Risky Is It Really Why Our Fears Don t Always Match the Facts written by David Ropeik and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2010-03-05 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Clear, balanced, and lively." -- Steven Pinker, bestselling author of How the Mind Works ARE YOU AFRAID OF THE "RIGHT" RISKS? Do you worry more about radiation from nuclear power or from the sun? Are you more afraid of getting cancer than heart disease? Are you safer talking on your cell phone or using a hands-free device when you drive? Do you think global warming is a serious threat to your health? GET THE FACTS BEHIND YOUR FEARS—AND DISCOVER . . . HOW RISKY IS IT, REALLY? International risk expert David Ropeik takes an in-depth look at our perceptions of risk and explains the hidden factors that make us unnecessarily afraid of relatively small threats and not afraid enough of some really big ones. This read is a comprehensive, accessible, and entertaining mixture of what's been discovered about how and why we fear—too much or too little. It brings into focus the danger of The Perception Gap: when our fears don’t match the facts, and we make choices that create additional risks. This book will not decide for you what is really risky and what isn't. That's up to you. HOW RISKY IS IT, REALLY? will tell you how you make those decisions. Understanding how we perceive risk is the first step toward making wiser and healthier choices for ourselves as individuals and for society as a whole. TEST YOUR OWN "RISK RESPONSE" IN DOZENS OF SELF-QUIZZES!

Download or read book The Order of Things written by Alister E. McGrath and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provocative and immensely well informed, The Order of Things represents a substantial and original contribution to the fields of systematic theology, historical theology, and the science and religion dialogue. Leading theologian, Alister E. McGrath explores how the working methods and assumptions of the natural sciences can be used to inform and stimulate systematic theology. Written by one of today's best-known Christian writers Explores how the working methods and assumptions of the natural sciences can be used to inform and stimulate systematic theology Continues McGrath’s acclaimed exploration of scientific theology, begun with his groundbreaking three-volume work, A Scientific Theology Includes a landmark extended analysis of whether doctrinal development can be explained using Darwinian evolutionary models, and exploration of how the transition from a “scientific theology” to a future “scientific dogmatics” might be made Supported by a published review of McGrath’s scientific theology project, which is currently the best brief introduction to his thought.

Download or read book Thinking Fast and Slow written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: *Major New York Times Bestseller *More than 2.6 million copies sold *One of The New York Times Book Review's ten best books of the year *Selected by The Wall Street Journal as one of the best nonfiction books of the year *Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient *Daniel Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's best-selling The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, world-famous psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Topping bestseller lists for almost ten years, Thinking, Fast and Slow is a contemporary classic, an essential book that has changed the lives of millions of readers.

Download or read book Possible Knowledge written by Debapriya Sarkar and published by University of Pennsylvania Press. This book was released on 2023-06-06 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Renaissance, scholars have long argued, was a period beset by the loss of philosophical certainty. In Possible Knowledge, Debapriya Sarkar argues for the pivotal role of literature--what early moderns termed poesie--in the dynamic intellectual culture of this era of profound incertitude. Revealing how problems of epistemology are inextricable from questions of literary form, Sarkar offers a defense of poiesis, or literary making, as a vital philosophical endeavor. Working across a range of genres, Sarkar theorizes "possible knowledge" as an intellectual paradigm crafted in and through literary form. Sixteenth- and seventeenth-century writers such as Spenser, Bacon, Shakespeare, Cavendish, and Milton marshalled the capacious concept of the "possible," defined by Philip Sidney as what "may be and should be," to construct new theories of physical and metaphysical reality. These early modern thinkers mobilized the imaginative habits of thought constitutive to major genres of literary writing--including epic, tragedy, romance, lyric, and utopia--in order to produce knowledge divorced from historical truth and empirical fact by envisioning states of being untethered from "nature" or reality. Approaching imaginative modes such as hypothesis, conjecture, prediction, and counterfactuals as instruments of possible knowledge, Sarkar exposes how the speculative allure of the "possible" lurks within scientific experiment, induction, and theories of probability. In showing how early modern literary writing sought to grapple with the challenge of forging knowledge in an uncertain, perhaps even incomprehensible world, Possible Knowledge also highlights its most audacious intellectual ambition: its claim that while natural philosophy, or what we today term science, might explain the physical world, literature could remake reality. Enacting a history of ideas that centers literary studies, Possible Knowledge suggests that what we have termed a history of science might ultimately be a history of the imagination.

Download or read book HIV AIDS in the Post HAART Era written by John C. Hall and published by PMPH-USA. This book was released on 2011 with total page 1052 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The science of the virus and its effects and the clinical approaches to its treatment and transmission prevention are placed in the context of the history and epidemiology of the HIV-AIDS pandemic. Each organ system of the body is explored as to manifestations of the disease, treatment now and in the future, as well as what the disease has taught us about the immune response. The science of epidemiology, which is so important in allowing for tracking of the disease and potential limitation of transmission, is another aspect of AIDS explored in detail. The pandemic manifests differently in different parts of the world, and the relevance of the volume is enhanced by its international group of contributors. No other text provides the historical and epidemiological context of this disease along with an update of diagnosis and treatment. The underlying science and epidemiology of AIDS are not neglected, so the student or clinician who is treating patients with AIDS can gain a full understanding of HIV/AIDS in individual patients and in their communities.