Download or read book Forecasts of US Short term Interest Rates written by Massimo Guidolin and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting Interest Rates written by John B. Schwartzman and published by McGraw-Hill Companies. This book was released on 1992 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Set up your own simple, one-page charts that track and assess interest rates and the factors affecting them--on a weekly, monthly, or quarterly basis. Determine, with a high degree of accuracy, in which direction the various trends influencing interest rates are likely to push them. Supplemented by a host of charts, graphs, examples, and illustrations, Forecasting Interest Rates allows you to spot the all-important events that cause interest rates to move--whether they're front-page news or subtle incidents. It shows you how to recognize a reliable interest rate factor from a red herring--whether the source is the Department of Commerce, the Department of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board, a university research center, or a nonprofit company specializing in business economic research.

Download or read book Federal Reserve Transparency and Financial Market Forecasts of Short term Interest Rates written by Eric T. Swanson and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Us Long Term Interest Rate Conundrum written by Bruno Ducoudre and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: US long-term interest rates evolved between 4 and 4.5% from the third quarter of 2004 to the third quarter of 2005. In the same time, the Federal Reserve raised its short-term rate. The last one was increased from 1% in June 2004 to 4.75% in March 2006. The long rate has thus been considered too low. In this essay, we will primarily try to assess the monetary policy effects on the US long-term interest rate. We will do some dynamic forecasts in order to gauge if the long rate sluggishness is in line with future short-term rate and inflation rate expectations. Indeed, simulations show that the long rate would be about 70 basis points below our forecasts. To explain this conundrum, we will explore two hypotheses that have been advocated: a Global Saving Glut and a rise in Pension Funds and Foreigners' long-term asset purchases. The latter hypothesis makes it possible to elucidate a great part of the gap between the long rate and the forecasts.

Download or read book Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rate Cycle RLE Business Cycles written by James W. Coons and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-03-24 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1994 and the recipient of the Stonier Library Award, this volume evaluates an alternative approach – the sequential filter- to managing the uncertainty inherent in the future course of the interest rate cycle. The specific hypothesis is that the sequential filter can produce valuable signals of cyclical peaks and troughs in interest rates. The analysis focusses on US interest rates from April 1953 to December 1988.

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book The Five year Outlook for Interest Rates in the United States and Abroad written by Herbert Victor Prochnow and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Short term Interest Rate Futures as Monetary Policy Forecasts written by Giuseppe Ferrero and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Download or read book The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Reuben A. Kessel and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Behavior of U S Short term Interest Rates Since October 1979 written by Richard H. Clarida and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book U S Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates written by Carlos Caceres and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-29 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the Federal Reserve continues to normalize its monetary policy, this paper studies the impact of U.S. interest rates on rates in other countries. We find a modest but nontrivial pass-through from U.S. to domestic short-term interest rates on average. We show that, to a large extent, this comovement reflects synchronized business cycles. However, there is important heterogeneity across countries, and we find evidence of limited monetary autonomy in some cases. The co-movement of longer term interest rates is larger and more pervasive. We distinguish between U.S. interest rate movements that surprise markets versus those that are anticipated, and find that most countries receive greater spillovers from the former. We also distinguish between movements in the U.S. term premium and the expected path of risk-free rates, concluding that countries respond differently to these shocks. Finally, we explore the determinants of monetary autonomy and find strong evidence for the role of exchange rate flexibility, capital account openness, but also for other factors, such as dollarization of financial system liabilities, and the credibility of fiscal and monetary policy.

Download or read book Short term Interest Rates Forecast written by and published by . This book was released on with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Short-term interest rates forecast refers to projected values of three-month money market rates. It is measured as a percentage. Forecast data are calculated by making an overall assessment of the economic climate in individual countries and the world economy as a whole, using a combination of model-based analyses and statistical indicator models.

Download or read book On Forecasting Interest Rates written by James E. Pesando and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews, from an applied forecasting perspective, the properties of short- and long-term interest rates in an efficient market. The paper emphasizes that efficient markets do not preclude economic agents from successfully forecasting movements in short-term interest rates. For brief forecast intervals, however, ex ante changes in long-term rates are sufficiently close to zero that economic agents are not likely to improve upon the no-change prediction of the martingale model. Economic agents, in effect, are not likely to succeed in forecasting short-term movements in long-term interest rates. An analysis of three sets of Canadian interest rate forecasts provides results which are consistent with the theoretical discussion, Further, these results parallel those obtained in recent studies of recorded forecasts in the United States, although the authors of these latter studies apparently failed to appreciate the nature of their findings

Download or read book A Defence of the Expectations Theory as a Model of US Long term Interest Rates written by Gregory D. Sutton and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting the Short End of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Austin Graham and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis examines the properties of two short-term interest rates: the federal funds rate and the rate of return on 90-day Treasury securities (T-Bills). Findings indicate strong evidence of cointegration among the two series. This result leads us to consider whether future movements in T-bill returns are predictable using the same methods used to predict the target federal funds rate. The "Taylor Rule," introduced by Taylor (1993), assumes the Federal Reserve considers inflation and the output gap in their deliberation of how to adjust the federal funds target rate. We do an in-sample analysis followed by an out-of-sample forecasting comparison. Findings show that, in addition to inflation and the output gap, the unemployment rate and stock market contain valuable information for forecasting future T-bill rates.

Download or read book Forecasting Short term Interest Rates written by Jennifer Doyle and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: