Download or read book Forecasting With Out Liars written by John Mink and published by . This book was released on 2021-04-19 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting business is one of the biggest challenges all companies face. It requires dealing with a significant number of variables that are unknown, uncontrollable, and difficult to manage. Implementing a formal Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) process promises the company better alignment, financial benefits, and improved customer satisfaction. But often, the process falls short of expectations. So, to improve forecasting, leaders invest in consulting, systems, and tools, only to find themselves frustrated with the results. This frustration contributes to a "blame culture" that drives forecast bias and apathy, thus giving forecasting little chance to succeed. As a seasoned professional who has implemented and managed S&OP at several firms, I have found ways to break through barriers that prevent organizations from succeeding. By sharing experiences you can relate to, I provide you with tips and a unique perspective on how to better manage the forecasting challenges you face. In the pages of this book, you'll find insights on why the forecasting and execution processes fail to improve while it provides solutions that can dramatically improve your processes - and your results. As a successful supply chain leader and expert in S&OP, John Mink developed the concept of this book early in his career. He has been working on continually improving the forecasting processes through trial and error while discovering successes along way-ones that benefit customer experiences and bring improved financial results. John resides with his family in the Chicagoland area. A self-proclaimed King of the Dad Jokes, John plays the French horn, enjoys motor sports with a passion, and loves family outings at the beach.
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Download or read book Volatility Forecasting Without Data snooping written by Elroy Dimson and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting written by Hans-Georg Nollau and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2010 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At all times, looking into the future and knowing what is happening has been a dream of mankind. As a symbol for this attempt the Oracle of Delphi is the best proof and until today the Delphi-Method is an important decision support tool. Despite of all methods and procedures to make forecasting a high level of responsibility, seriousness and professionalism of all the involved people is an absolute necessity. Today, unfortunately we often have the situation where those who are putting society at risk are "no true statisticians", merely people using statistics either without understanding them or in a self-serving manner. This is not a joke, this is criminal! In the present contribution, the 16th volume of the publication series "Economy and Labour" with the title "Forecasting: A Challenge for True Statisticians", a scientific, well proofed method of mathematical statistics for Time Series Analysis and Forecasting is presented. It is one of the mathematically oriented methods and procedures of Customer-oriented-Holistic-Netted-Logistics CHNL described in this publication series. In the present volume an important forecasting tool is described and its power is impressively shown by case studies using the SCA-Software system.
Download or read book Profit From Your Forecasting Software written by Paul Goodwin and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-03-22 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Go beyond technique to master the difficult judgement calls of forecasting A variety of software can be used effectively to achieve accurate forecasting, but no software can replace the essential human component. You may be new to forecasting, or you may have mastered the statistical theory behind the software’s predictions, and even more advanced “power user” techniques for the software itself—but your forecasts will never reach peak accuracy unless you master the complex judgement calls that the software cannot make. Profit From Your Forecasting Software addresses the issues that arise regularly, and shows you how to make the correct decisions to get the most out of your software. Taking a non-mathematical approach to the various forecasting models, the discussion covers common everyday decisions such as model choice, forecast adjustment, product hierarchies, safety stock levels, model fit, testing, and much more. Clear explanations help you better understand seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared, and an exploration of psychological biases provides insight into the decision to override the software’s forecast. With a focus on choice, interpretation, and judgement, this book goes beyond the technical manuals to help you truly grasp the more intangible skills that lead to better accuracy. Explore the advantages and disadvantages of alternative forecasting methods in different situations Master the interpretation and evaluation of your software’s output Learn the subconscious biases that could affect your judgement toward intervention Find expert guidance on testing, planning, and configuration to help you get the most out of your software Relevant to sales forecasters, demand planners, and analysts across industries, Profit From Your Forecasting Software is the much sought-after “missing piece” in forecasting reference.
Download or read book Benchmarking written by Chaman L. Jain and published by Institute of Business Forec. This book was released on 2006 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Dishonest Behavior From Theory to Practice written by Guy Hochman and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2016-11-17 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rapidly growing field of behavioral ethics shows that dishonest acts are highly prevalent in all walks of life, from corruption among politicians through flagrant cases of doping in sports, to everyday slips and misdemeanors of ordinary people who nevertheless perceive themselves as highly moral. When considered cumulatively, these seemingly innocuous and ordinary unethical behaviors cause considerable societal damage and add up to billions of dollars annually. Research in behavioral ethics has made tremendous advances in characterizing many contextual and social factors that promote or hinder dishonesty. These findings have prompted the development of interventions to curb dishonesty and to help individuals become more committed to ethical standards. The current e-book includes studies that test and advance current theory and deepen our understanding of the cognitive and physiological processes underlying dishonest behavior, discuss possible implications of findings in behavioral ethics research for real life situations, document dishonest behavior in the field and/or directly examines interventions to reduce it.
Download or read book Forecasts of the Coming Century by a Decade of Writers written by Alfred Russel Wallace and published by Manchester, Labour Press. This book was released on 1897 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Read People Like a Book How to Analyze Understand and Predict People s Emotions Thoughts Intentions and Behaviors written by Patrick King and published by PKCS Media. This book was released on 2020-12-11 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Speed read people, decipher body language, detect lies, and understand human nature. Is it possible to analyze people without them saying a word? Yes, it is. Learn how to become a “mind reader” and forge deep connections. How to get inside people’s heads without them knowing. Read People Like a Book isn’t a normal book on body language of facial expressions. Yes, it includes all of those things, as well as new techniques on how to truly detect lies in your everyday life, but this book is more about understanding human psychology and nature. We are who we are because of our experiences and pasts, and this guides our habits and behaviors more than anything else. Parts of this book read like the most interesting and applicable psychology textbook you’ve ever read. Take a look inside yourself and others! Understand the subtle signals that you are sending out and increase your emotional intelligence. Patrick King is an internationally bestselling author and social skills coach. His writing draws of a variety of sources, from scientific research, academic experience, coaching, and real life experience. Learn the keys to influencing and persuading others. •What people’s limbs can tell us about their emotions. •Why lie detecting isn’t so reliable when ignoring context. •Diagnosing personality as a means to understanding motivation. •Deducing the most with the least amount of information. •Exactly the kinds of eye contact to use and avoid Find shortcuts to connect quickly and deeply with strangers. The art of reading and analyzing people is truly the art of understanding human nature. Consider it like a cheat code that will allow you to see through people’s actions and words. Decode people’s thoughts and intentions, and you can go in any direction you want with them.
Download or read book Forecasting Non stationary Economic Time Series written by Michael P. Clements and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text on economic forecasting asks why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. After reviewing the conventional approach to forecasting, it looks at the implications for causal modelling, presents forecast errors and delineates sources of failure.
Download or read book Spiral Forecasting written by Nahu Lanham and published by . This book was released on 2015-02-13 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What does a Category 5 Hurricane and a Viral Video have in common? A mega-energy source to make things happen! Can we release this power and put it to work? You bet! In the tradition of Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point and Steven Johnson's Emergence, Nahu, a psychic counselor of 40 years, goes on to explore the principle in nature that guides growth and self-organization. In this ground-breaking book, he makes the leap between knowing how things come into manifestation to predicting their future success rate. Forecasting is a billion dollar industry with the bulk of the money being made in business, economic and financial forecasting. Therefore, it goes without saying that those individuals or companies which can accurately predict the future have the 'space-time' edge on their competitors.With numerous practical exercises at the end of every chapter, the book provides the insights and the tools necessary to begin securing a better future in what can be record time.
Download or read book Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies Report 2 written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-08-02 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The term "disruptive technology" describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing. The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.
Download or read book How to the Choose Right Forecasting written by Chambers and published by . This book was released on 1971-01-01 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Long range Forecasting written by Jon Scott Armstrong and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 1985 with total page 734 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Getting started. Forecasting methods. Evaluation. Comparing methods. Commencement.
Download or read book Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts written by Patricia C O'Brien and published by Legare Street Press. This book was released on 2023-07-18 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a detailed analysis of the accuracy of forecasts made by individual analysts across nine different industries. It explores the factors that contribute to forecast accuracy and provides insights into how these factors can be used to improve forecasting performance. The author, Patricia C. O'Brien, is a well-respected economist and her research has significant implications for businesses and investors who rely on forecasts in their decision-making processes. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the "public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Download or read book Liar s Paradise written by Graham Edmonds and published by Oldcastle Books Ltd. This book was released on 2015-03-01 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We are living in an age where we are constantly bombarded with lies, fakery and spin. This is especially true of the work place. Liars Paradise exposes the techniques used by liars and corporate cheats.
Download or read book Creative Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
