Download or read book Forecasting Unstable and Non stationary Time Series written by Carlo Grillenzoni and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting Non stationary Economic Time Series written by Michael P. Clements and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text on economic forecasting asks why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. After reviewing the conventional approach to forecasting, it looks at the implications for causal modelling, presents forecast errors and delineates sources of failure.
Download or read book Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting written by Peter J. Brockwell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.
Download or read book Time Series and Related Topics written by Ching-Zong Wei and published by IMS. This book was released on 2006 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modelling Non Stationary Economic Time Series written by S. Burke and published by Springer. This book was released on 2005-06-14 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Co-integration, equilibrium and equilibrium correction are key concepts in modern applications of econometrics to real world problems. This book provides direction and guidance to the now vast literature facing students and graduate economists. Econometric theory is linked to practical issues such as how to identify equilibrium relationships, how to deal with structural breaks associated with regime changes and what to do when variables are of different orders of integration.
Download or read book Series of Irregular Observations written by Robert Azencott and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the university level, in probability and statistics departments or electrical engineering departments, this book contains enough material for a graduate course, or even for an upper-level undergraduate course if the asymptotic studies are reduced to a minimum. The prerequisites for most of the chapters (l - 12) are fairly limited: the elements of Hilbert space theory, and the basics of axiomatic probability theory including L 2-spaces, the notions of distributions, random variables and bounded measures. The standards of precision, conciseness, and mathematical rigour which we have maintained in this text are in clearcut contrast with the majority of similar texts on the subject. The main advantage of this choice should be a considerable gain of time for the noninitiated reader, provided he or she has a taste for mathematical language. On the other hand, being fully aware of the usefulness of ARMA models for applications, we present carefully and in full detail the essential algorithms for practical modelling and identification of ARMA processes. The experience gained from several graduate courses on these themes (Universities of Paris-Sud and of Paris-7) has shown that the mathematical material included here is sufficient to build reasonable computer programs of data analysis by ARMA modelling. To facilitate the reading, we have inserted a bibliographical guide at the end of each chapter and, indicated by stars (* ... *), a few intricate mathematical points which may be skipped over by nonspecialists.
Download or read book Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty written by David E. Rapach and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2008-02-29 with total page 691 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.
Download or read book International Conference on Social Science and Management ICSSM 2014 written by Prof. S. Narayanasamy and published by DEStech Publications, Inc. This book was released on 2014-03-26 with total page 507 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is my honor to welcome all of you to Chicago, USA to participate in the 2014 International Conference on Social Science and Management (ICSSM2014) which will be held during March 15 to 16, 2014. The ICSSM2014 is co-sponsored by Advanced Information Science Research Center (AISRC), Khon Kaen University, Dalhousie University and University of Stirling. The conference proceeding is published by DEStech Publications, Inc. ICSSM2014 provides an excellent international forum for sharing knowledge and results in theory, methodology and applications of Social Science and Management. The conference looks for significant contributions to all major fields of the modern Social Science and Management in theoretical and Application aspects. The aim of the conference is to provide a platform to the global researchers and practitioners from both academia as well as industry to meet and share cutting-edge development in the fields. This ICSSM2014 proceedings tends to collect the up-to-date, comprehensive and worldwide state-of-art knowledge on social science and management, including sociology, law, information management, innovation management, engineering management, etc. All of accepted papers were subjected to strict peer-reviewing by 2–4 expert referees. The papers have been selected for this volume because of quality and the relevance to the conference. We hope this book will not only provide the readers a broad overview of the latest research results, but also provide the readers a valuable summary and reference in these fields. ICSSM2014 organizing committee would like to express our sincere appreciations to all authors for their contributions to this book. We would like to extend our thanks to all the referees for their constructive comments on all papers; especially, we would like to thank to organizing committee for their hard working.
Download or read book Air Pollution Modelling and Simulation written by Bruno Sportisse and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2002-02-25 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collates the written contributions of the Second Conference on Air Pollution Modelling and Simulation (APMS 2001). A wide range of current topics is covered, focusing on three challenging issues: (1) the modelling issue of complex, multiphase, atmospheric chemistry; (2) the numerical issue associated with comprehensive three-dimensional chemistry-transport models; and (3) the key issues of data assimilation and inverse modelling. State-of-the art research is presented with many operational procedures applied at either forecast agencies or companies.
Download or read book Proceedings of the Fourth International Forum on Decision Sciences written by Xiang Li and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-01-22 with total page 871 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These conference proceedings focus on the topics of data-driven decision-making, stochastic decision-making, fuzzy decision-making and their applications in real-life problems. Beijing University of Chemical Technology organized IFDS2016, the 4th International Forum on Decision Sciences, with the theme “Data-Driven Decision-Making.” The proceedings collect 84 selected papers presenting cutting-edge modeling and solution methods and include numerous practical case studies, making it a valuable resource for students, researchers and practitioners working in the fields of decision science, operations research, management science and engineering.
Download or read book Advanced Spatial Modeling with Stochastic Partial Differential Equations Using R and INLA written by Elias T. Krainski and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-12-07 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling spatial and spatio-temporal continuous processes is an important and challenging problem in spatial statistics. Advanced Spatial Modeling with Stochastic Partial Differential Equations Using R and INLA describes in detail the stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE) approach for modeling continuous spatial processes with a Matérn covariance, which has been implemented using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) in the R-INLA package. Key concepts about modeling spatial processes and the SPDE approach are explained with examples using simulated data and real applications. This book has been authored by leading experts in spatial statistics, including the main developers of the INLA and SPDE methodologies and the R-INLA package. It also includes a wide range of applications: * Spatial and spatio-temporal models for continuous outcomes * Analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal point patterns * Coregionalization spatial and spatio-temporal models * Measurement error spatial models * Modeling preferential sampling * Spatial and spatio-temporal models with physical barriers * Survival analysis with spatial effects * Dynamic space-time regression * Spatial and spatio-temporal models for extremes * Hurdle models with spatial effects * Penalized Complexity priors for spatial models All the examples in the book are fully reproducible. Further information about this book, as well as the R code and datasets used, is available from the book website at http://www.r-inla.org/spde-book. The tools described in this book will be useful to researchers in many fields such as biostatistics, spatial statistics, environmental sciences, epidemiology, ecology and others. Graduate and Ph.D. students will also find this book and associated files a valuable resource to learn INLA and the SPDE approach for spatial modeling.
Download or read book Green Transportation and Low Carbon Mobility Safety written by Wuhong Wang and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-10-27 with total page 719 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These proceedings gather selected papers from the 12th International Conference on Green Intelligent Transportation Systems and Safety, held in Beijing, China on November 17-19, 2021. The book contains cutting-edge research on Green Intelligent Mobility Systems, with the goal of achieving "green, intelligent, and safe transportation systems" as the guiding slogan. The contributions offered here can aid in the advancement of green mobility and intelligent transportation technology by increasing interconnectivity, resource sharing, flexibility, and efficiency. Researchers and engineers in the areas of Transportation Technology and Traffic Engineering, Automotive and Mechanical Engineering, Industrial and System Engineering, and Electrical Engineering will all benefit from the book's scope.
Download or read book Short Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies written by Wei-Chiang Hong and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2019-01-29 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies" that was published in Energies
Download or read book Can the Variables in an Extended Solow Model be Treated as Exogenous written by Dorte Verner and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Dynamic Linear Models with R written by Giovanni Petris and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.
Download or read book Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models written by Mike West and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 720 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book we are concerned with Bayesian learning and forecast ing in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models, and their uses in Bayesian forecasting. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting have been developed extensively during the last twenty years. This devel opment has involved thorough investigation of mathematical and sta tistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with application in a variety of areas in commercial and industrial, scientific and socio-economic fields. In deed much of the technical development has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, although much of this is either not properly documented or not easily accessible. Our primary goals in writing this book have been to present our view of this approach to modelling and forecasting, and to provide a rea sonably complete text for advanced university students and research workers. The text is primarily intended for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in statistics and mathematics. In line with this objective we present thorough discussion of mathematical and statistical features of Bayesian analyses of dynamic models, with illustrations, examples and exercises in each Chapter.
Download or read book Money Financial Instability and Stabilization Policy written by L. Randall Wray and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2006-01-01 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Money, Financial Instability and Stabilization Policy consists of original articles by leading Post Keynesians, Kaleckians and other heterodox economists from the developed and developing world. Post Keynesian literature has long been associated with the study of money, financial markets and financial instability. Indeed, this is perhaps the area to which Post Keynesians have made the greatest contributions. The authors to this volume present an overview of the latest research on monetary theory and policy, financial markets, and financial instability coming out of the Post Keynesian school of thought. They provide an indication of the wide-ranging interests and of the truly international scope of Post Keynesian research. The first half of the volume is theoretical, while the second half includes papers that are either empirical or more focused on specific concerns. This book will find an appreciative audience in economists generally as well as Post Keynesian, other heterodox economists and macroeconomists specifically.
