Download or read book Forecasting Through the Rear View Mirror written by Eric Ghysels and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic data are typically subject to future revisions and released with delay. Predictive return regressions using such data therefore potentially overstate the information set available to investors in real time. We document that data revisions account for a sizable share of in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power for Treasury returns found in macroeconomic data. This is partly explained by the fact that information contained in revisions to prior months' releases is incorporated into bond prices. Survey forecasts available in real time contain information about future revised data that is orthogonal to the real-time data and also helps to predict bond returns.
Download or read book Applied Economic Forecasting using Time Series Methods written by Eric Ghysels and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-03-23 with total page 617 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making both in the public and in the private sector. Because economic outcomes are the result of a vast, complex, dynamic and stochastic system, forecasting is very difficult and forecast errors are unavoidable. Because forecast precision and reliability can be enhanced by the use of proper econometric models and methods, this innovative book provides an overview of both theory and applications. Undergraduate and graduate students learning basic and advanced forecasting techniques will be able to build from strong foundations, and researchers in public and private institutions will have access to the most recent tools and insights. Readers will gain from the frequent examples that enhance understanding of how to apply techniques, first by using stylized settings and then by real data applications--focusing on macroeconomic and financial topics. This is first and foremost a book aimed at applying time series methods to solve real-world forecasting problems. Applied Economic Forecasting using Time Series Methods starts with a brief review of basic regression analysis with a focus on specific regression topics relevant for forecasting, such as model specification errors, dynamic models and their predictive properties as well as forecast evaluation and combination. Several chapters cover univariate time series models, vector autoregressive models, cointegration and error correction models, and Bayesian methods for estimating vector autoregressive models. A collection of special topics chapters study Threshold and Smooth Transition Autoregressive (TAR and STAR) models, Markov switching regime models, state space models and the Kalman filter, mixed frequency data models, nowcasting, forecasting using large datasets and, finally, volatility models. There are plenty of practical applications in the book and both EViews and R code are available online at authors' website.
Download or read book Forecasting Forest Futures written by Hamish Kimmins and published by Earthscan. This book was released on 2010 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modelling is an important tool for understanding the complexity of forest ecosystems and the variety of interactions of ecosystem components, processes and values. This book describes the hybrid approach to modelling forest ecosystems and their possible response to natural and management-induced disturbance. The book describes the FORECAST family of ecosystem management models at three different spatial scales (tree, stand and landscape), and compares them with alternative models at these three spatial scales. The book will help forest managers to understand what to expect from ecosystem-based forest models; serve as a tool for use in teaching about sustainability, scenario analysis and value trade-offs in natural resources management; and assist policy makers, managers and researches working in assessment of sustainable forest management and ecosystem management. Several real-life examples of using the FORECAST family of models in forest management and other applications are presented from countries including Canada, China, Spain and the USA, to illustrate the concepts described in the text. The book also demonstrates how these models can be extended for scenario and value trade-off analysis through visualization and educational or management games.
Download or read book Forecasting for Technologists and Engineers written by Brian C. Twiss and published by IET. This book was released on 1992 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is written for all technologists and engineers. To those unfamiliar with forecasting it may appear a somewhat esoteric activity with little relevance to the everyday technical concerns of the reader. This is not so. The aim of this book is to show how forecasting can improve the quality of technical decision making. Furthermore, this can be accomplished without the use of highly sophisticated techniques which can only be applied by specialists. The approaches described in this book can be easily understood and used by all its readers.
Download or read book The Definitive Guide to Modern Supply Chain Management Collection written by Chad W. Autry and published by FT Press. This book was released on 2013-07-02 with total page 1109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A brand new collection of state-of-the-art guides to more effective supply chain management… 4 pioneering books, now in a convenient e-format, at a great price! 4 up-to-the-minute books help you build and optimize agile, flexible, efficient global supply chains — in the face of any challenge! As a supply chain or operations professional, you face unprecedented challenges in delivering the agile, resilient, efficient supply chain your company needs. This indispensable 4-book package gives you unprecedented resources, best practices, tools, and case studies for managing each of these challenges. Global Macrotrends and Their Impact on Supply Chain Management shows how to manage supply and demand in the face of massively disruptive emerging societal, technological, geopolitical, and environmental macro trends. You’ll find a complete decision framework and practical tools, insights, and guidance for systematically mitigating new risks and building long-term competitive advantage. Step by step, you’ll walk through assessing and responding to population growth, migration, urbanization; socioeconomic change, global connectivity, environmental issues, geopolitics, growing scarcity, transportation congestion, aging infrastructure, and more. Next, Supply Chain Network Design helps you use strategic network design techniques to drive dramatic new savings throughout your supply chain. The authors, who are experts at IBM and Northwestern University, combine rigorous principles and practical applications, helping you optimize the right number, location, territory, and size of warehouses, plants, and production lines; and optimize product flow through even the most complex global supply chains. They help you manage tradeoffs such as cost vs. service level, improve operational decision-making through analytics; and re-optimize regularly for even greater savings. Then, Demand and Supply Integration shows how to implement world-class demand forecasting management, and effectively integrate it into comprehensive Demand and Supply Integration (DSI) processes. You’ll learn how to recognize failures of demand/supply integration, approach Demand Forecasting as a management process, and choose and apply the best forecasting techniques. You’ll discover how to thoroughly reflect market intelligence in forecasts; measure forecasting performance; implement advanced demand forecasting systems; manage Demand Reviews, and more. Finally, The Supply Chain Management Casebook brings together 30 up-to-date, focused case studies illuminating every aspect of modern supply chain management — from procurement to warehousing, strategy to risk management, IT to supplier selection and ethics. Contributors present key challenges in industries ranging from pharmaceuticals to fashion, and preview issues ranging from the “limits of lean” to the potential of 3-D printing. Both qualitative and quantitative cases are included; quantitative cases are supported by completed numerical solutions, and, where applicable, associated spreadsheets. From supply chain experts Chad W. Autry, Thomas J. Goldsby, John E. Bell, Michael Watson, Sara Lewis, Peter Cacioppi, Jay Jayaraman, Mark A. Moon, and Chuck Munson
Download or read book Forecasting written by David Hendry and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2019-06-11 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
Download or read book Supply Chain Planning and Analytics written by Gerald Feigin and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2011-08-31 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every company must continually wrestle with the problem of deciding the right quantity and mix of products or services that it should produce as well as when and where to produce them. The problem is challenging because the decision must be made with uncertain and conflicting information about future demand, available production capacity, and sources of supply. The decision is in fact a highly complex balancing act, involving tradeoffs along many dimensions - for example, inventory targets vs. customer service levels, older products vs. newer ones, direct customers vs. channel partners - and requiring the compromise of constituents - sales, marketing, operations, procurement, product development, finance, as well as suppliers and customers - with varied objectives. The ability of a company to nimbly navigate this decision process without giving too much influence to any of the parties involved largely determines how well the company can respond to changing market conditions and ultimately whether the company will continue to thrive. This book focuses on the complex challenges of supply chain planning - the set of business processes that companies use for planning to meet future demand. Supply chain planning comprises a variety of planning processes within an organization: demand planning, sales & operations planning, inventory planning, promotion planning, supply planning, production planning, distribution planning, and capacity planning. Of course, not all companies engage in all of these planning activities and they may refer to these activities by other names but they all struggle with the on-going effort of matching demand with supply. Many textbooks address supply chain planning problems and present mathematical tools and methods for solving certain classes of problems. This book is intended to complement these texts by focusing not on the mathematical models but on the problems that arise in practice that either these models do not adequately address or that make applying the models difficult or impossible. The book is not intended to provide pat solutions to these problems, but more to highlight the complexities and subtleties involved and describe ways to overcome practical issues that have worked for some companies.
Download or read book Investing with the Trend written by Gregory L. Morris and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-12-31 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investing with the Trend provides an abundance of evidence for adapting a rules-based approach to investing by offering something most avoid, and that is to answer the “why” one would do it this way. It explains the need to try to participate in the good markets and avoid the bad markets, with cash being considered an asset class. The book is in three primary sections and tries to leave no stone unturned in offering almost 40 years of experience in the markets. Part I – The focus is on much of the misinformation in modern finance, the inappropriate use of Gaussian statistics, the faulty assumptions with Modern Portfolio Theory, and a host of other examples. The author attempts to explain each and offer justification for his often strong opinions. Part II – After a lead chapter on the merits of technical analysis, the author offers detailed research into trend analysis, showing how to identify if a market is trending or not and how to measure it. Further research involves the concept of Drawdown, which the author adamantly states is a better measure of investor risk than the oft used and terribly wrong use of volatility as determined by standard deviation. Part III – This is where he puts it all together and shows the reader all of the steps and details on how to create a rules-based trend following investment strategy. A solid disciplined strategy consists of three parts, a measure of what the market is actually doing, a set of rules and guidelines to tell you how to invest based upon that measurement, and the discipline to follow the strategy
Download or read book High Dielectric Constant Materials written by Howard Huff and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-11-02 with total page 723 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issues relating to the high-K gate dielectric are among the greatest challenges for the evolving International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS). More than just an historical overview, this book will assess previous and present approaches related to scaling the gate dielectric and their impact, along with the creative directions and forthcoming challenges that will define the future of gate dielectric scaling technology.
Download or read book United States Experience in Environmental Cost benefit Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants with Implications for Developing Countries written by Miller B. Spangler and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Demand and Supply Integration written by Mark A. Moon and published by FT Press. This book was released on 2013-01-14 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Supply chain professionals: master pioneering techniques for integrating demand and supply, and create demand forecasts that are far more accurate and useful! In Demand and Supply Integration, Dr. Mark Moon presents the specific design characteristics of a world-class demand forecasting management process, showing how to effectively integrate demand forecasting within a comprehensive Demand and Supply Integration (DSI) process. Writing for supply chain professionals in any business, government agency, or military procurement organization, Moon explains what DSI is, how it differs from approaches such as SandOP, and how to recognize the symptoms of failures to sufficiently integrate demand and supply. He outlines the key characteristics of successful DSI implementations, shows how to approach Demand Forecasting as a management process, and guides you through understanding, selecting, and applying the best available qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques. You'll learn how to thoroughly reflect market intelligence in your forecasts; measure your forecasting performance; implement state-of-the-art demand forecasting systems; manage Demand Reviews, and much more. For wide audiences of supply chain, logistics, and operations management professionals at all levels, from analyst and manager to Director, Vice President, and Chief Supply Chain Officer; and for researchers and graduate students in the field.
Download or read book Competition written by Emilio Cvitkovic and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-27 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book is an iconoclastic overview of the art of analyzing industries and competition. The book examines the capabilities of several complex business tools such as decision analysis, accounting, and other 'MBA-science' disciplines, and translates them into commonsensical concepts such as competitive strengths, uncertainty, complexity and 'results'.
Download or read book Total Supply Chain Management written by Ron Basu and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2010-05-14 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The latest book from a successful author team, this essential handbook provides the basic concepts, tools and techniques to support a supply chain excellence initiative. The book shows how to add value to an organisation through the optimum use of resources and supply chain elements and through the provision of improved customer satisfaction. Resources are defined as all available resources, whether owned or borrowed along the complete supply chain, from the supplier's supplier, through to the customer's customer. Specific supply chain issues and opportunities related to service industries, e-Supply Chain and emerging markets like India are key features of this book.
Download or read book Definitive Guides for Supply Chain Management Professionals Collection written by CSCMP and published by FT Press. This book was released on 2014-02-11 with total page 3184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A brand new collection of best practices for planning, organizing, and managing high-value supply chains… 8 authoritative books, now in a convenient e-format, at a great price! 8 authoritative books help you systematically plan, manage, and optimize any supply chain, in any environment or industry Master all the knowledge and best practices you need to design, implement, and manage world-class supply chains! This unique 8 eBook package will be an indispensable resource for supply chain professionals and students in any organization or environment. It contains 7 complete books commissioned by Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), the preeminent worldwide professional association dedicated to advancing and disseminating SCM research and knowledge. CSCMP's The Definitive Guide to Supply Chain Best Practices brings together state-of-the-art case studies to help you identify challenges, evaluate solutions, plan implementation, and prepare for the future. These realistic, fact-based cases reflect the full complexity of modern supply chain management. You're challenged to evaluate each scenario, identify the best available responses, and successfully integrate functional activities ranging from forecasting through post-sales service. CSCMP's Definitive Guide to Integrated Supply Chain Management is your definitive reference to managing supply chains that improve customer service, reduce costs, and enhance business performance. Clearly and concisely, it introduces modern best practices for organizations of all sizes, types, and industries. Next, this eBook package contains five books fully addressing core areas of CSCMP Level One SCPro™ certification: manufacturing/service operations; warehousing; supply management/procurement; transportation; and order fulfillment/customer service. All five offer focused coverage of essential technical and behavioral skills, addressing principles, elements, strategies, tactics, processes, business interactions/linkages, technologies, planning, management, measurement, global operations, and more. The Definitive Guide to Manufacturing and Service Operations introduces complete best practices for planning, organizing, and managing the production of products and services. Itintroduces key terminology, roles, and goals; techniques for planning and scheduling facilities, material, and labor; continuous process and quality improvement methods; sustainability; MRP II, DRP, and other technologies; and more. Next, The Definitive Guide to Warehousing helps you optimize all facets of warehousing, step by step. It explains each warehousing option, storage and handling operations, strategic planning, and the effects of warehousing decisions on total logistics costs and customer service. It covers product and materials handling, labor management, warehouse support, extended value chain processes, facility ownership, planning, strategy decisions, warehouse management systems, Auto-ID, AGVs, and more. The Definitive Guide to Supply Management and Procurement helps you drive sustainable competitive advantage via better supplier management and procurement. It covers transactional and long-term activities; category analysis, supplier selection, contract negotiation, relationship management, performance evaluation/management; sustainability; spend analysis, competitive bidding, eProcurement, eSourcing, auctions/reverse auctions, contract compliance, global sourcing, and more. The Definitive Guide to Transportation is today's most authoritative guide to world-class supply chain transportation. Its coverage includes: transportation modes, execution, and control; outsourcing, modal and carrier selection, and 3PLs; TMS technologies; ocean shipping, international air, customs, and regulation; and more. CSCMP's The Definitive Guide to Order Fulfillment and Customer Service covers all facets of building and operating world-class supply chain order fulfillment and customer service processes, from initial customer inquiry through post sales service and support. It introduces crucial concepts ranging from order cycles to available-to-promise, supply chain RFID to global order capture networks, guiding you in optimizing every customer contact you make. Finally, in Demand and Supply Integration: The Key to World-Class Demand Forecasting, Mark A. Moon helps you effectively integrate demand forecasting within a comprehensive, world-class Demand and Supply Integration (DSI) process. Moon shows how to approach demand forecasting as a management process; choose and apply the best qualitative and quantitative techniques; and create demand forecasts that are far more accurate and useful. If you're tasked with driving more value from your supply chain, this collection offers you extraordinary resources -- and unsurpassed opportunities. From world-renowned supply chain experts Robert Frankel, Brian J. Gibson, Joe B. Hanna, C. Clifford Defee, Haozhe Chen, Nada Sanders, Scott B. Keller, Brian C. Keller, Wendy L. Tate, Thomas J. Goldsby, Deepak Iyengar, Shashank Rao, Stanley E. Fawcett, Amydee M. Fawcett, and Mark A. Moon
Download or read book Value Based Management in Government written by Douglas W. Webster and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-01-22 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides step-by-step guidance on implementing and using a value-based management system within the government Countless books on proposed management practices have been written and published over the past century. Some of these have focused on specific management practices for government. In more recent decades, the topics of strategic planning, performance management, cost management and risk management have been extensively covered. However, little has been offered as an approach to integrate these and numerous other management methods and practices in a manner that maximizes the delivery of value to the organization’s key stakeholders. A general management framework is presented in this book in a manner particularly applicable to government organizations. Value-Based Management in Government introduces a new, integrating framework for management practices that optimizes the balancing of results sought; resources supplied and allocated; and risks accepted. These considerations are all balanced for the purpose of delivering maximum stakeholder value. The book offers guidance on how strategic planning, performance management, cost/resource management, and risk management must all be integrated as part of a portfolio management framework across the organization. The book also discusses the role of information technology (IT) in providing data for insights and decision-making, and the importance of organizational change management to implement the needed organizational and behavioral changes. Beginning by explaining the concept of Value-Based Management for the public sector and government, the text goes on to explore topics such as the evolutionary stages of maturity of management accounting, the benefit of attributes (e.g., value-add versus nonvalue-add) in cost data, predictive planning with expense projections, risk management, and various performance measurements (e.g., key performance indicators [KPIs] ). This authoritative book: Discusses a framework for balancing and integrating cost, performance, and risk Explains IT systems integration issues related to activity-based cost management (ABC/M) Addresses why some ABC/M implementation projects fail to meet expectations Describes how quality management efforts can be measured in financial terms Explores the wider uses of predictive accounting (e.g., driver-based budgeting, what-if scenario analysis) Provides organizational change management insights and recommendations needed to achieve the required changes in management decision-making. Value-Based Management in Government is an important source of information for leaders, executives, managers, and employee teams working within or with government organizations.
Download or read book Business Ratios and Formulas written by Steven M. Bragg and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-04-03 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A complete appraisal of analytical tools available to managers to assess performance Required reading for anyone starting, running, or growing a business, Business Ratios and Formulas, Third Edition puts answers at the fingertips of business managers, with nearly 250 operational criteria and clear, easy-to-understand explanations that can be used right away. The Third Edition includes twenty new measurements. Approximately 20 new measurements Offers a comprehensive resource of nearly 250 operational criteria An Appendix including a dictionary of accounting and finance terms A thorough list of every ratio and formula, and how to compile and interpret that information Also by Steven M. Bragg: Fast Close: A Guide to Closing the Books Quickly, Second Edition An ideal tool for measuring corporate performance, this authoritative resource allows you to pick and choose the tools you need to best assess your organization's performance.
Download or read book Software Product Management written by Hans-Bernd Kittlaus and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-07-04 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Software Product Management (SPM) is a key success factor for software products and software-intensive products. This book gives a comprehensive overview on SPM for beginners as well as best practices, methodology and in-depth discussions for experienced product managers. This includes product strategy, product planning, participation in strategic management activities and orchestration of the functional units of the company. The book is based on the results of the International Software Product Management Association (ISPMA®, SPM Body of Knowledge V.2) which is led by a group of SPM experts from industry and research with the goal to foster software product management excellence across industries. This book can be used as textbook for ISPMA®-based education and as guide for anybody interested in SPM as one of the most exciting and challenging disciplines in the business of software.
