Download or read book Forecasting in Military Affairs written by Юрий Васильевич Чуев and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides a rather broad review on an international scale of recent thinking on the subject of scientific planning, forecasting, and decisionmaking as it relates to the military. The scientific approach to these matters is observed to be highly essential in an age in which scientific and technical development gives rise to rapid changes in weapons and techniques. The results of the use of nuclear weapons are likely to be such as to deny decisionmakers the luxury approach to their task. Scientific forecasting is proposed as a means of ensuring the rapid production of soundly based information on which to make proper decisions in military affairs. It is not put forth as a substitute for the thinking of talented and experienced military experts but as a means for them to achieve their decisions in a more timely and scientific manner. The authors employ a mathematical-statistical approach in arriving at their hypotehtical forecasts, and, particulary because of the numerous examples of forecasting situations to which these techniques are applied, those involved or interested in the activity should be able to confirm their understanding of the methods of arrival at the various conclusions.
Download or read book Forecasting in Military Affairs written by Jurij Vasil'evic Cuev and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting in Military Affairs written by Yu. V. Chuyev and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting in Military Affairs written by Yu V. Chuyev and published by International Law & Taxation Pub. This book was released on 2004-11-01 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyzes existing and developing methods of forecasting (heuristic, mathematical, and composite) and examines their use in solving various military problems. It demonstrates the errors inherent in all the methods and how they affect the results of decisions that can be made and the final results of operations. The fields of application of particular methods are discussed and concrete examples are given. The book is intended for a wide range of military readers and for workers in industry and related educational institutions.
Download or read book Forecasting in Military Affairs written by Yu. V. Chuyev and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting in Military Affairs written by ︠I︡Uriĭ Vasilʹevich Chuev and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting in Military Affairs written by and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Superforecasting Or Snafu written by David L. Raugh and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the impact of military institutional tendencies and habits on U.S. Army senior officer forecasting accuracy and how does this forecasting ability shape success in battle? Military leaders plan operations based on the forecasted strengths and vulnerabilities of their adversary. Negative habits, such as limited option development, confirmation bias, doctrinal overreliance, and over-consideration of sunk costs, inhibit effective forecasting. The tempo of the modern battlefield, hierarchical culture, and institutional tendencies of the US Army may promote and reinforce these habits. I surveyed Colonels in US Army War College programs to measure their individual tendencies, levels of education, and accuracy in forecasting events during a three to twelve-month future. Quantitative analysis of the resulting data shows that these habits are present and negatively affect forecasting ability; additionally, higher levels of education positively affect forecast accuracy, possibly counteracting the effects of negative institutional tendencies and habits. Extending the research using historical and contemporary case studies of senior US Army Generals, including interviews of General David Petraeus and other high-ranking officials, I find that rejection of these institutional habits and tendencies enabled superior forecasting, leading to battlefield success. I conclude by examining how educational levels of commanding generals in the Iraq War affected military success. Exploratory quantitative analysis of data collected from the US Army historical archives shows that higher levels of education positively affected significant activities within the general's assigned areas.
Download or read book A Technique for Forecasting Defense Expenditures written by Harvey Galper and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Strategic Landscape 2050 written by Roman Muzalevsky and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Barring major policy failures, the U.S. military will enjoy unrivaled capabilities in the coming decades. However, a series of megatrends will undermine the U.S. position as the most influential actor while enabling its rivals to move up the ranks fast. The U.S. military should stand ready to harness these dynamics to retain its edge in a recalibrated global operational threat environment and strategic landscape. Otherwise, protecting U.S. interests in a continuously evolving world will be a fruitless enterprise, one that will hasten the perceived U.S. decline as the greatest military power the world has ever known. This monograph helps explore and prepare for the possible and the probable in a transformed world of 2050. Relying on forecasting, scenarios, and wild cards, it envisions the evolution of the megatrends and an emerging operational threat environment and strategic landscape for the U.S. military.
Download or read book Long Term Projections of Power Political Economic and Military Forecasting written by Oskar Morgenstern and published by Cambridge, Mass : Ballinger Publishing Company. This book was released on 1973 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monograph presenting a critique of long term forecasting techniques operationally useful for predicting the shape of political power and technological capacity in the future - comprises a literature survey of major projections to the year 2000, and examines their relevance to armed forces power, economic systems, environmental problems, research and development efforts, etc. Bibliography pp. 217 to 224, references and statistical tables.
Download or read book Forecasting Science and Technology for the Department of Defense written by John W. Lyons and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2012-07-05 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since World War II, predictions of science and technology for military applications have occurred periodically. A study chartered by the Army Air Force predicted in 1947 a broad range of developments in aeronautics and air power and has been a model for such forecasts ever since. Projections in science and technology have been issued for many years by the National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies, which publishes decadal studies for specific disciplines. Such studies for astronomy and astrophysics, for example, go back to at least 1964. An important task of DOD science and technology (S&T) programs is to avoid technological surprise resulting from the exponential increase in the pace of discovery and change in S&T worldwide. The nature of the military threat is also changing, with the result being new military requirements, some of which can be met by technology. Shaping the S&T portfolio requires predicting and matching these two factors well into the future. Some examples of technologies that have radically affected the battlefield include the Global Positioning System coupled with inexpensive, handheld receivers; the microprocessor revolution, which has placed the power of the Internet and satellite communications in the hands of soldiers in the field; new sensing capabilities such as night vision; and composite materials for armor and armaments. Some of these technologies came from military S&T, some from commercial developments, and still others from a synthesis of the two sectors, but all were based on advances in the underlying sciences. Clearly, leaders and planners in military S&T must keep abreast of such developments and look ahead as best they can. In the Department of Defense (DOD), the last series of forecast studies was done in the 1990s. In 2008, National Defense University's Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) assessed the Army's STAR 21 (Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century) study,3 in which the basic and applied sciences were assessed and forecast as separate and discrete disciplines. Future capabilities were discussed in a separate set of STAR 21 volumes on systems. In general, the technologies of individual systems were not discussed with reference to the underlying sciences. This separation of future capabilities from the underlying S&T forecasts was true for the studies of all three services.
Download or read book Improving the Army s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting written by John W. Lyons and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An important challenge for the Department of Defense (DOD) science and technology (S&T) programs is to avoid technological surprise resulting from the exponential increase in the pace of discovery and change in S&T worldwide. The nature of the military threat is also changing, resulting in new military requirements, some of which can be met by technology. Proper shaping of the S&T portfolio requires predicting and matching these two factors well into the future. Some examples of technologies which have radically affected the battlefield include the Global Positioning System coupled with inexpensive hand held receivers, the microprocessor revolution which has placed the power of the Internet and satellite communications into the hands of soldiers in the field, new sensing capabilities such as night vision, the use of unmanned vehicles, and composite materials for armor and armaments. Some of these new technologies came from military S&T, some from commercial developments and still others from a synthesis of the two sectors; but all were based on advances in the underlying sciences. Clearly, leaders and planners in military S&T must keep abreast of such developments and look ahead as best they can. As the Army considers its next comprehensive technology forecasting effort as a follow-on to STAR 21, it should not only take into account the concepts of technology convergence, but also tie them together with the capabilities desired by the warfighter.
Download or read book The Military Balance 2022 written by The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2022-02-14 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Published each year since 1959, The Military Balance is an indispensable reference to the capabilities of armed forces across the globe. It is used by academia, the media, armed forces, the private sector and government. It is an open-source assessment of the military forces and equipment inventories of 171 countries, with accompanying defence economics and procurement data. Alongside detailed country data, The Military Balance assesses important defence issues, by region, as well as key global trends, such as in defence technology and equipment modernisation. This analysis is accompanied by full-colour graphics, including maps and illustrations. With extensive explanatory notes and reference information, The Military Balance is as straightforward to use as it is extensive. The 2022 edition is accompanied by a fullcolour wall chart illustrating security dynamics in the Arctic.
Download or read book A Technique for Forecasting Defense Expenditures written by Harvey Galper and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Challenging Time in DOPMA written by Peter Schirmer and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Many of the laws and policies that govern officer career management (often collectively referred to as "DOPMA," after the Defense Officer Personnel Management Act of 1980) have been in place for decades. DOPMA has served the needs of the services reasonably well, but the current system may not meet the requirements of the future operating environment. One criticism of DOPMA is that it does not allow for much variety in officers' career paths because it is time-driven. Alternatively, officers' competencies are now emerging as the basis for career management. In this monograph, the authors demonstrate how a competency-based officer personnel management system could provide more flexibility in preparing military officers for the wide range of roles and missions of the U.S. military in the 21st century. This analysis focuses on practices governing promotions for military officers and closely related assignment and retirement policies."--Rand web site
Download or read book Military Forecasting and Planning F P written by Norliza Husein and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
