Download or read book Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State Space and Regime Switching Models written by Mr.Francisco Nadal De Simone and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2000-10-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models. The main findings are; forecasts that include the pre-announced inflation target as a regressor are relatively better; the Phillips curve model outperforms the small open economy model in out-of-sample forecasts; and although Box-Jenkins models outperform the two models for short-term out-of-sample forecasts, their superiority deteriorates in longer forecasts. Adding a Markov-switching process to the models does not explain much of the conditional variance of the forecast errors.
Download or read book Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America Panama and Dominican Republic written by Mr.Christian A Johnson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-12 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Potential Output is a key factor for debt sustaintability analysis and for developing strategies for growth, but unfortunately it is an unobservable variable. Using three methodologies (production function, switching, and state-space), this paper computes potential output for CAPDR countries using annual data. Main findings are: i) CAPDR potential growth is about 4.4 percent while output gap volatility is about 1.9 percent; ii) The highest-potential growth country is Panama (6.5 percent) while the lowest-growth country is El Salvador (2.6 percent); iii) CAPDR business cycle is about eigth years.
Download or read book Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Turkey written by Ilker Domaç and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Design in Maritime Engineering written by Azman Ismail and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-02-15 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers several research outcomes of various fields and schools related to maritime operation, applications and materials science. Thirty-four research papers have been compiled from the 2nd International Conference on Marine and Advanced Technologies 2021 (ICMAT 2021) which was organized by the Research and Innovation Section of the Universiti Kuala Lumpur-MIMET. The chapters were written by experienced lecturers from various universities in Malaysia discussing various topics and sub-topics related to maritime engineering and materials science. These chapters portray the actual knowledge on the latest developments and trends of technologies in maritime industries.
Download or read book State space Models with Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
Download or read book Chile Selected Issues written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan written by Madhavi Bokil and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less suited to capturing turning points. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model illustrates how monetary developments can be described by a Phillips-curve type relationship. We deal with potential parameter instability on account of fundamental changes in Pakistan's economic system by restricting our sample to more recent observations. Gregorian and Islamic calendar seasonality are addressed by using 12-month moving averages.
Download or read book Emerging Markets Finance Trade written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 654 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Document de Travail written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Artha Suchi written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing written by Rob Hyndman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-06-19 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.
Download or read book Pakistan Development Review written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Handbook of Monetary Economics written by Benjamin M. Friedman and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2010-11-16 with total page 971 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "What tools are available for setting and analyzing monetary policy? World-renowned contributors examine recent evidence on subjects as varied as price-setting, inflation persistence, the private sector's formation of inflation expectations, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Stopping short of advocating conclusions about the ideal conduct of policy, the authors focus instead on analytical methods and the changing interactions among the ingredients and properties that inform monetary models. The influences between economic performance and monetary policy regimes can be both grand and muted, and this volume clarifies the present state of this continually evolving relationship." [source : 4e de couv.].
Download or read book Index to International Statistics written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Aanwinsten van de Centrale Bibliotheek Queteletfonds written by Bibliothèque centrale (Fonds Quetelet) and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 590 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
