Download or read book Forecasting Inflation and Tracking Monetary Policy in the Euro Area written by Riccardo Cristadoro and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting Inflation and Tracking Monetary Policy in the Euro Area Does National Information Helph written by Riccardo Cristadoro and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book Defining a Macroeconomic Framework for the Euro Area written by Alberto Alesina and published by Centre for Economic Policy Research. This book was released on 2001 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume begins with a review of the main events of the year and how the European Central Bank has dealt with them. The report then deals with the relationships between the ECB and the eurogroup, how the Council make monetary policy decisions and macroeconomic adjustment in the monetary union.

Download or read book Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area Evidence from Out of Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs written by Helge Berger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-03 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money improves forecasting accuracy. The results are very robust with regard to alternative treatments of priors and sample periods. That said, there is also reason not to overemphasize the role of money. The predictive power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice.

Download or read book Surviving the Slowdown written by David K. H. Begg and published by Centre for Economic Policy Research. This book was released on 2002 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Europe has a new central bank. It must develop its version of accountability and public debate over monetary policies. It is natural for CEPR, as a network of policy-oriented academic economists, to contribute to the establishment of a new tradition. Monitoring the European Central Bank (MECB) brings together a group of economists internationally known for their work on macroeconomics and monetary policy. MECB will monitor the European economy and the work of the ECB. Its analyses will be presented to the public, including the European Parliament and the media. A full MECB report is published each year, complemented by an Update that draws on recent publications of the ECB.

Download or read book Measures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area written by Emil Stavrev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-08 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors resulting from forecasting of exogenous variables. Also, measures derived using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) overperform other measures over the monetary policy horizon and are leading indicators of headline inflation. Trimmed means, although weaker than GDFM indicators, have good forecasting performance, while indicators by permanent exclusion underperform but provide useful information about short-term dynamics. The forecasting performance of theoretically-founded models that relate monetary aggregates, the output gap, and inflation improves with the time horizon but generally falls short of that of the GDFM. A composite measure of underlying inflation, derived by averaging the statistical indicators and the model-based estimates, improves forecast accuracy by eliminating bias and offers valuable insight about the distribution of risks.

Download or read book Inflation Persistence and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area written by Pierpaolo Benigno and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Se presentan evidencias de la existencia de heterogeneidades en la dinámica de inflación en los países del área euro.

Download or read book Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy written by Mr.Helge Berger and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2006-02-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part, this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent.

Download or read book Inflation Forecasts Monetary Policy and Unemployment Dynamics written by Carlo Altavilla and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Background Studies for the ECB s Evaluation of Its Monetary Policy Strategy written by Otmar Issing and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stock Prices and Monetary Policy written by Paul De Grauwe and published by CEPS. This book was released on 2008 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The question of whether central banks should target stock prices so as to prevent bubbles and crashes from occurring has been hotly debated. This paper analyses this question using a behavioural macroeconomic model. This model generates bubbles and crashes. It analyses how 'leaning against the wind' strategies, which aim to reduce the volatility of stock prices, can help in reducing volatility of output and inflation. We find that such policies can be effective in reducing macroeconomic volatility, thereby improving the trade-off between output and inflation variability. The strength of this result, however, depends on the degree of credibility of the inflation-targeting regime. In the absence of such credibility, policies aiming at stabilising stock prices do not stabilise output and inflation.

Download or read book Inflation Expectations and Their Role in Eurosystem Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarises the findings of the Eurosystem's Expert Group on Inflation Expectations (EGIE), which was one of the 13 work streams conducting analysis that fed into the ECB's monetary policy strategy review. The EGIE was tasked with (i) reviewing the nature and behaviour of inflation expectations, with a focus on the degree of anchoring, and (ii) exploring the role that measures of expectations can play in forecasting inflation. While it is households' and firms' inflation expectations that ultimately matter in the expectations channel, data limitations have meant that in practice the focus of analysis has been on surveys of professional forecasters and on market-based indicators. Regarding the anchoring of inflation expectations, this paper considers a number of metrics: the level of inflation expectations, the responsiveness of longer-term inflation expectations to shorter-term developments, and the degree of uncertainty. Different metrics can provide conflicting signals about the scale and timing of potential unanchoring, which underscores the importance of considering all of them. Overall, however, these metrics suggest that in the period since the global financial and European debt crises, longer-term inflation expectations in the euro area have become less well anchored. Regarding the role measures of inflation expectations can play in forecasting inflation, this paper finds that they are indicative for future inflationary developments. When it comes to their predictive power, both market-based and survey-based measures are found to be more accurate than statistical benchmarks, but do not systematically outperform each other. Beyond their role as standalone forecasts, inflation expectations bring forecast gains when included in forecasting models and can also inform scenario and risk analysis in projection exercises performed using structural models. In terms of the implications for the ECB's economic and monetary analysis going forward, the work of the EGIE essentially highlights the need for (i) more data on households' and firms' inflation expectations, (ii) a comprehensive framework for assessing (un)anchoring and (iii) further considerations regarding the use of observed expectation measures in forecasting models.

Download or read book The ECB s Monetary Analysis Revisited written by Helge Berger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-07 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary aggregates continue to play an important role in the ECB's policy strategy. This paper revisits the case for money, surveying the ongoing theoretical and empirical debate. The key conclusion is that an exclusive focus on non-monetary factors alone may leave the ECB with an incomplete picture of the economy. However, treating monetary factors as a separate matter is a second-best solution. Instead, a general-equilibrium inspired analytical framework that merges the economic and monetary "pillars" of the ECB's policy strategy appears the most promising way forward. The role played by monetary aggregates in such unified framework may be rather limited. However, an integrated framework would facilitate the presentation of policy decisions by providing a clearer narrative of the relative role of money in the interaction with other economic and financial sector variables, including asset prices, and their impact on consumer prices.

Download or read book Monetary Policy in the Euro Area written by Otmar Issing and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-07-26 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A non-technical analysis of the monetary policy strategy, institutions and operational procedures of the Eurosystem, first published in 2001.

Download or read book Monetary Policy Strategies written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-10-04 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper considers the merits of rules and discretion for monetary policy when the structure of the macroeconomic model and the probability distributions of disturbances are not well defined. It is argued that when it is costly to delay policy reactions to seldom-experienced shocks until formal algorithmic learning has been accomplished, and when time consistency problems are significant, a mixed strategy that combines a simple verifiable rule with discretion is attractive. The paper also discusses mechanisms for mitigating credibility problems and emphasizes that arguments against various types of simple rules lose their force under a mixed strategy.

Download or read book The European Central Bank written by D. Howarth and published by Springer. This book was released on 2003-05-14 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: David Howarth and Peter Loedel provide a theoretically inspired account of the creation, design and operation of the European Central Bank. Issues explored include the theoretical approaches to the ECB, the antecedents of European monetary authority, the different national perspectives on central bank independence, the complex organisation of the bank, the issues of accountability and the difficult first years of the ECB in operation.