Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book Forecasting Inflation and Real GDP written by Jason K. Wong and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real Time written by Mr.Jens R. Clausen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-02-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, we use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data. This exercise assumes an information set similar to that available to a policymaker at a given point in time since GDP data is subject to sometimes substantial revisions. In addition to using real-time datasets for the UK and the US, we employ a dataset for real-time German GDP data not used before. We find that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally useful certain output gap estimates are for forecasting inflation.

Download or read book Forecasting Inflation and Real GDP written by Jason K. Wong and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Economic Forecasting The State of the Art written by Elia Xacapyr and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-09-16 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.

Download or read book Learning and Heterogeneity in GDP and Inflation Forecasts written by Kajal Lahiri and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining the evolution of expert disagreement in forecasting real GDP growth and inflation over 24 monthly horizons for G7 countries during 1990-2007. Professional forecasters are found to begin and have relatively more success in predicting inflation than real GDP at significantly longer horizons; forecasts for real GDP contain little information beyond 6 quarters, but forecasts for inflation have predictive value beyond 24 months and even 36 months for some countries. Forecast disagreement arises from two primary sources in our model: differences in the initial prior beliefs of experts, and differences in the interpretation of new public information. Estimated model parameters, together with two separate case studies on (i) the dynamics of forecast disagreement in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attack in the U.S. and (ii) the successful inflation targeting experience in Italy after 1997, firmly establish the importance of these two pathways to expert disagreement.

Download or read book Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U S Economy written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.

Download or read book Does Money Matter for U S Inflation Evidence from Bayesian VARs written by Helge Berger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-03 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. This holds for a long forecasting sample 1960-2005, as well for more recent subperiods, including the Volcker and Greenspan eras. However, the contribution of money to inflation forecasting accuracy is quantitatively limited and tends to be smaller in recent subperiods, in particular in models that also include information on real GDP growth and interest rates.

Download or read book Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low Income Countries written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-07 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary movements (or gaps)—including for the international and domestic relative price of food. Second, we use the filtration exercise to recover the sequence of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks that account for business cycle dynamics in Kenya over the last few years, with a special emphasis on the various factors (international food prices, monetary policy) driving inflation. Third, we perform an out-of-sample forecast to identify where the economy—and therefore policy—was likely headed given the inflationary pressures at the end of our sample (2011Q2). We find that while imported food price shocks have been an important source of inflation, both in 2008 and more recently, accommodating monetary policy has also played a role, most notably through its effect on the nominal exchange rate. The model correctly predicted that a policy tightening was required, although the actual interest rate increase was larger. We discuss implications for the use of model-based policy analysis in low income countries.

Download or read book Forecasting Inflation and GDP Growth written by Duo Qin and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Monetary Policy and Forecasting Inflation with and Without the Output Gap written by Weshah Razzak and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book On the informational content of asset prices for output and inflation forecasting written by Gerret Halberstadt and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2014-07-11 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2014 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1.0, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, language: English, abstract: That financial markets can influence real economic activity has been accepted by economists long ago and became dramatically apparent again in the last financial crisis, when the sharp decline in housing prices in the US was followed by a severe recession. In general, asset prices are determined in a forward-looking manner, stock prices for example reflect the expected profitability of firms in the future and thus are linked to expected future economic conditions. Furthermore, many macroeconomic models suggested by economic theory in-corporate interest rates, interest spreads or exchange rates, which can be seen as some sort of financial assets, and believing in these models means believing that asset prices influence developments of macroeconomic v ariables in the future. These considerations and observations gave rise to examine the pre-dictive power of asset prices to forecast output and inflation and a survey of this literature as well as empirical tests for a variety of predictors in different countries can be found e.g. in Stock and Watson (2003).

Download or read book Inflation in Tajikistan written by Fahad Alturki and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey written by Daniel Leigh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-12 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth and inflation in Turkey have been volatile over the last two decades. It would, therefore, be useful to identify indicators that anticipate economic conditions and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive performance of economic indicators for inflation and real output growth in Turkey. We find that (i) the forecasting ability of individual indicators is unstable; but that (ii) a suitable combination of these unstable forecasts yields a forecast that reliably outperforms that generated by an autoregressive model. We then propose a two-stage combination forecast obtained by taking the median of the top five performing individual forecasts. This two-stage forecast reliably improves on autoregressive benchmarks and outperforms the combination forecast based on all the individual forecasts.

Download or read book Forecasting China s Economic Growth and Inflation written by Patrick Higgins and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample model-based forecasts of China's real GDP growth and CPI inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and to be usable for policy analysis under different scenarios. It predicts that China's future GDP growth will be of L-shape rather than U-shape.

Download or read book Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State space and Regime switching Models written by Francisco Nadal-De Simone and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.