Download or read book Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences written by Kenneth C. Land and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Social and natural scientists often are called upon to produce, or participate, in the pro duction of forecasts. This volume assembles essays that (a) describe the organizational and political context of applied forecasting, (b) review the state-of-the-art for many fore casting models and methods, and (c) discuss issues of predictability, the implications of forecaSt errors, and model construction, linkage and verification. The essays should be of particular interest to social and natural scientists concerned with forecasting large-scale systems. This project had its origins in discussions of social forecasts and forecasting method ologies initiated a few years ago by several social and natural science members of the Social Science Research Council's Committee on Social Indicators. It became appar ent in these discussions that certain similar problems were confronted in forecasting large-scale systems-be they social or natural. In response, the Committee hypothesized that much could be learned through more extended and systematic interchanges among social and natural scientists focusing on the formal methodologies applied in forecasting. To put this conjecture to the test, the Committee sponsored a conference at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, on June 10-13, 1984, on forecasting in the social and natural sciences. The conference was co-chaired by Committee members Kenneth C. Land and Stephen H. Schneider representing, respectively, the social and natural science mem bership of the Committee. Support for the conference was provided by a grant to the Council from the Division of Social and Economic Science of the National Science Foundation.
Download or read book Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecast written by Mark Buchanan and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2014-06-03 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A groundbreaking book that uses physics to show how instability is inherent in economic markets, just as thunderstorms are a part of weather.
Download or read book Forecasting and the Social Sciences written by Social Science Research Council (Great Britain) and published by London : published for the Social Science Research Council by Heinemann, London. This book was released on 1968 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting and the Social Sciences written by Social Science Research Council (United Kingdom) and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Proceedings written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 564 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Vital and Health Statistics written by and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Handbook of Social Indicators and Quality of Life Research written by Kenneth C. Land and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-11-25 with total page 594 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of the Handbook of Social Indicators and Quality of Life Research is to create an overview of the field of Quality of Life (QOL) studies in the early years of the 21st century that can be updated and improved upon as the field evolves and the century unfolds. Social indicators are statistical time series “...used to monitor the social system, helping to identify changes and to guide intervention to alter the course of social change”. Examples include unemployment rates, crime rates, estimates of life expectancy, health status indices, school enrollment rates, average achievement scores, election voting rates, and measures of subjective well-being such as satisfaction with life-as-a-whole and with specific domains or aspects of life. This book provides a review of the historical development of the field including the history of QOL in medicine and mental health as well as the research related to quality-of-work-life (QWL) programs. It discusses several of QOL main concepts: happiness, positive psychology, and subjective wellbeing. Relations between spirituality and religiousness and QOL are examined as are the effects of educational attainment on QOL and marketing, and the associations with economic growth. The book goes on to investigate methodological approaches and issues that should be considered in measuring and analysing quality of life from a quantitative perspective. The final chapters are dedicated to research on elements of QOL in a broad range of countries and populations.
Download or read book Prognostics written by Frederik Lodewijk Polak and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Foundations of Futures Studies Volume 1 written by Wendell Bell and published by Transaction Publishers. This book was released on with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Futures studies is a new field of inquiry involving systematic and explicit thinking about alternative futures. It aims to demystify the future, make possibilities for the future more known to us, and increase human control over the future. Author Wendell Bell brings together futurist intellectual tools, describing and explaining not only the methods, but also the nature, concepts, theories, and exemplars of the field. Now available in paperback with a new preface from the author, Foundations of Future Studies is the fundamental work on the subject. Bell illustrates how this sphere of intellectual activity offers hope for the future of humanity and concrete ways of realizing that hope in the real world of everyday life. His book will appeal to all interested in futures studies, sociology, economics, political science, and history.
Download or read book Foundations of Futures Studies written by Jose Valciukas and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-07-05 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Futures studies is a new field of inquiry involving systematic and explicit thinking about alternative futures. It aims to demystify the future, make possibilities for the future more known to us, and increase human control over the future. This book summarizes and expands contributions of futurists to the envisioning power and well-being of humanity. Bell brings together futurist intellectual tools, describing and explaining not only the methods, but also the nature, concepts, theories, and exemplars of the field.Foundations of Futures Studies fulfills Bell's five main purposes for writing this two-volume effort: (1) to show that futures studies, like other fields from anthropology to zoology, exists as an identifiable sphere of intellectual activity; (2) to create a teaching instrument that can be used as a basic text for core courses in futures studies; (3) to futurize the thinking of specialists in other disciplines; (4) to contribute to the further development and improvement of futures studies; and (5) to provide tools to empower both ordinary people and leaders to act in ways that create better futures for themselves and their societies. Bell maintains that despite its sometimes doomsday rhetorical style and widespread use by special interests, futures studies offers hope for the future of humanity and concrete ways of realizing that hope in the real world of our everyday lives. It will appeal to all interested in futures studies, as well as sociologists, economists, political scientists, and historians.
Download or read book Predicting the Future in Science Economics and Politics written by Frank Whelon Wayman and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2014-08-29 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is a puzzle that while academic research has increased in specialization, the important and complex problems facing humans urgently require a synthesis of understanding. This unique collaboration attempts to address such a problem by bringing togeth
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Foundations of Futures Studies written by Jose Valciukas and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-07-05 with total page 507 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Futures studies is a new field of inquiry involving systematic and explicit thinking about alternative futures. It aims to demystify the future, make possibilities for the future more known to us, and increase human control over the future. This book summarizes and expands contributions of futurists to the envisioning power and well-being of humanity. Bell brings together futurist intellectual tools, describing and explaining not only the methods, but also the nature, concepts, theories, and exemplars of the field.Foundations of Futures Studies fulfills Bell's five main purposes for writing this two-volume effort: (1) to show that futures studies, like other fields from anthropology to zoology, exists as an identifiable sphere of intellectual activity; (2) to create a teaching instrument that can be used as a basic text for core courses in futures studies; (3) to futurize the thinking of specialists in other disciplines; (4) to contribute to the further development and improvement of futures studies; and (5) to provide tools to empower both ordinary people and leaders to act in ways that create better futures for themselves and their societies. Bell maintains that despite its sometimes doomsday rhetorical style and widespread use by special interests, futures studies offers hope for the future of humanity and concrete ways of realizing that hope in the real world of our everyday lives. It will appeal to all interested in futures studies, as well as sociologists, economists, political scientists, and historians.
Download or read book The Dark Years written by Jacob L. Goodson and published by Wipf and Stock Publishers. This book was released on 2020-08-04 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1997 and 1998, the American secular philosopher Richard Rorty published a set of predictions about the twenty-first century ranging from the years 2014–95. He predicted, for instance, the election of a “strong man” in the 2016 presidential race and the proliferation of gun violence starting in 2014. He labels the years from 2014–44 the darkest years of American history, politics, and society. From 2045–95, Rorty thinks his own vision for “social hope” will be implemented within American society—a vision that includes charity (in the Pauline sense), solidarity, and sympathy. Rorty considers himself a leftist, liberal, and a philosopher of hope. So why would a philosopher of hope predict such darkness and despair? In The Dark Years? Philosophy, Politics, and the Problem of Predictions philosopher and political theorist Jacob L. Goodson explains the fullness of Rorty’s predictions, the problem of making predictions within the social sciences, and the reasons why even Rorty’s vision for life after the “dark years” fails us on the standards of hope. Goodson argues that we ought to challenge the monopoly that American politics has as our object of hope. Goodson makes the case for a melancholic yet redemptive hope.
Download or read book Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics written by Johan Grasman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1994 with total page 672 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Researchers in the natural sciences are faced with problems that require a novel approach to improve the quality of forecasts of processes that are sensitive to environmental conditions. Nonlinearity of a system may significantly complicate the predictability of future states: a small variation of parameters can dramatically change the dynamics, while sensitive dependence of the initial state may severely limit the predictability horizon. Uncertainties also play a role.
Download or read book Social Science Research written by Anol Bhattacherjee and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2012-04-01 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is designed to introduce doctoral and graduate students to the process of conducting scientific research in the social sciences, business, education, public health, and related disciplines. It is a one-stop, comprehensive, and compact source for foundational concepts in behavioral research, and can serve as a stand-alone text or as a supplement to research readings in any doctoral seminar or research methods class. This book is currently used as a research text at universities on six continents and will shortly be available in nine different languages.
