Download or read book The Next 100 Years written by George Friedman and published by Anchor. This book was released on 2009-01-27 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.” —George Friedman In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including: • The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia. • China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power. • A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly. • Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications. • The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century. Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead. For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.geopoliticalfutures.com.
Download or read book Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century written by William C. Potter and published by Stanford Security Studies. This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This two-volume set is the output from an extensive research project focused on developing the first forecasting model for nuclear proliferation. The Case Study volume (Volume 2) addresses a set of overarching questions regarding the propensity of selected states from different regions of the world to "go nuclear," the sources of national decisions to do so.
Download or read book The Atmospheric Sciences written by Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-11-05 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technology has propelled the atmospheric sciences from a fledgling discipline to a global enterprise. Findings in this field shape a broad spectrum of decisions--what to wear outdoors, whether aircraft should fly, how to deal with the issue of climate change, and more. This book presents a comprehensive assessment of the atmospheric sciences and offers a vision for the future and a range of recommendations for federal authorities, the scientific community, and education administrators. How does atmospheric science contribute to national well-being? In the context of this question, the panel identifies imperatives in scientific observation, recommends directions for modeling and forecasting research, and examines management issues, including the growing problem of weather data availability. Five subdisciplines--physics, chemistry, dynamics and weather forecasting, upper atmosphere and near-earth space physics, climate and climate change--and their status as the science enters the twenty-first century are examined in detail, including recommendations for research. This readable book will be of interest to public-sector policy framers and private-sector decisionmakers as well as researchers, educators, and students in the atmospheric sciences.
Download or read book Text Book of Long Range Weather Forecasting written by George J. McCormack and published by Astrology Classics. This book was released on 2012-04 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: George J. McCormack, (1887-1974) had a life-long interest in astrology and the weather. Inspired by the astrometeorological work of A.J. Pearce (1840-1923), McCormack meticulously tracked and recorded the weather, from before World War I, until his death more than half a century later. In 1947, after 23 years of research, he published his "key" to long-range weather forecasting, being this book. Confident of his ability, in the spring of 1947 McCormack predicted one of the most severe winters in decades, specifically forecasting the infamous snows of December 26, 1947. He was nationally famous overnight. The techniques he used are in this amazing book. With study, they will become yours. The weather bureau predicts the weather, day by day, by careful observation of current conditions. You can learn to predict based on underlying celestial factors, which can be known months, even years, in advance. In 1963, before the US Weather Bureau, and again in 1964, before the American Meteorological Society, McCormack presented his life's work. Both groups ignored him, to our great loss. Use this book, make a better choice.
Download or read book Neural Networks in Business Forecasting written by G. Peter Zhang and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2004-01-01 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is one of the most important activities that form the basis for strategic, tactical, and operational decisions in all business organizations. Recently, neural networks have emerged as an important tool for business forecasting. Neural Networks in Business Forecasting provides researchers and practitioners with some recent advances in applying neural networks to business forecasting. A number of case studies demonstrating the innovative or successful applications of neural networks to many areas of business as well as methods to improve neural network forecasting performance are presented.
Download or read book America s Secret War written by George Friedman and published by Anchor. This book was released on 2005-10-11 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: George Friedman delivers the geopolitical story that the mainstream media has been unable to uncover — the startling truth behind America’s foreign policy and war effort in Afghanistan, Iraq, and beyond. Friedman, founder of Stratfor, one of the world’s most respected private global intelligence firms, and Geopolitical Futures, has an unmatched ability to provide clear perspective on the current geopolitical map. In America's Secret War, George Friedman identifies the United States’ most dangerous enemies, delves into presidential strategies of the last quarter century, and reveals the real reasons behind the attack of 9/11—and the Bush administration’s motivation for the war in Iraq. It describes in eye-opening detail America’s covert and overt efforts in the global war against terrorism: Not only are U.S. armies in combat on every continent, but since 9/11 the intelligence services of dozens of nations have been operating in close partnership with the CIA. Drawing on his vast information-gathering network, Friedman presents an insightful picture of today’s world that goes far beyond what is reported on television and in other news media. Al Qaeda’s war plans and how they led to 9/11 The threat of a suitcase nuclear bomb in New York and how that changed the course of the war. The deal the U.S. made with Russia and Iran which made the invasion of Afghanistan possible – and how those deals affect the United States today. How fear and suspicion of the Saudis after 9-11 tore apart the Bush-Saudi relationship and why Saudi Arabia’s closest friends in the administration became the Saudi’s worst enemies. The real reasons behind George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq and how WMD became the cover for a much deeper game. How the CIA miscalculated about Saddam Hussein’s and Iran’s real plans, leaving the U.S. bogged down in the war. How the war in Iraq began with a ruse, pretending that a “target of opportunity” attack on Saddam Hussein had presented itself. The real story about why the U.S. raises and lowers its alert status and why the United States can’t find and destroy al Qaeda. The strategic successes that are slowly leading the United States to victory America's Secret War is an unprecedented look at the new world war being waged behind-the-scenes today. It is sure to stir debate and capture headlines around the world.
Download or read book The Extreme Future written by James Canton and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2006-09-21 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dr. James Canton, a renowned futurist, CEO of the Institute for Global Futures, and Fortune 1000 advisor, charts a course to steer you through the volatile changes that lie 5, 10, and 20 years ahead. The Extreme Future is this generation’s Future Shock, Alvin Toffler’s classic book on what’s next and how to prepare for tomorrow. Get ready for fast, radical and complex change. Get ready for the Extreme Future. Our world is constantly buffeted by new and dramatic changes that we can’t fully grasp. No one is fully prepared for the challenges, crises and risks that lie ahead. The Extreme Future is a blueprint for what’s next and how to navigate these changes. An advisor to three White House’s spanning more than 30 years, Dr. Canton challenges us that with the right information about future trends it is possible to identify probable outcomes. It is possible, with the right information to navigate the Extreme Future. The book covers the following major trends: How climate change and energy trends will reshape the planet How shifting population trends will transform the workforce How radical innovation trends will competitively drive business How astounding medicine trends will enhance people’s life How dangerous terrorism trends will threaten the individual. How the rise of China will bring on a new global power struggle The answers to these questions are not only available, but contained within these pages. The Extreme Future is the forecasting handbook for the twenty-first century.
Download or read book Transforming the Future written by Riel Miller and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-04-27 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: People are using the future to search for better ways to achieve sustainability, inclusiveness, prosperity, well-being and peace. In addition, the way the future is understood and used is changing in almost all domains, from social science to daily life. This book presents the results of significant research undertaken by UNESCO with a number of partners to detect and define the theory and practice of anticipation around the world today. It uses the concept of ‘Futures Literacy’ as a tool to define the understanding of anticipatory systems and processes – also known as the Discipline of Anticipation. This innovative title explores: • new topics such as Futures Literacy and the Discipline of Anticipation; • the evidence collected from over 30 Futures Literacy Laboratories and presented in 14 full case studies; • the need and opportunity for significant innovation in human decision-making systems. This book will be of great interest to scholars, researchers, policy-makers and students, as well as activists working on sustainability issues and innovation, future studies and anticipation studies. The Open Access version of this book, available at https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9781351047999, has been made available under a Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 IGO (CC-BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO) license.
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Download or read book Forecasting in the 21st Century written by G. A. McBean and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the ninth in the series of IMO Lectures, which was presented at the Thirteenth World Meteorological Congress by G.A. McBean. This lecture presents a future of meteorology in general, and that of weather forecasting in the 21st century in particular.--Publisher's description.
Download or read book The Handbook of Forecasting written by Spyros G. Makridakis and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 1987-04-03 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Role and application of forecasting in organizations; Introduction to management forecasting; Sales forecasting requirements; Forecasting requirements for operations planning and control; Capacity planning forecasting requirements; Financial forecasting; Forecasting and strategic planning; Forecasting in the electric utility industry; State and local government revenue forecasting; Population forecasting; Forecasting: the issues; Approaches to forecasting; Smoothing methods for short-term planning and control; A practical overview of arima models for time series forecasting; Decomposition methods for medium term planning annnd budgeting; Econometric methods for managerial applications; Judgemtal and bayesian forecasting; An integrated approach to medium andlong term forecasting: the marketing mix system; Forecasting challenges; Forecasting and the environment: the challenges of rapid change; Price forecasting using experience curves and the product life-cycle concept; Life cycle forecasting; Forecasting recessions; Forecasting macroeconomic variables: an eclectic approach; ; Managing the forecasting functions; Forecasting and planning: an evaluation; Integrating forecasting and decision making; The forecasting audit; The future of forecasting.
Download or read book Strategic Business Forecasting written by Jae K. Shim and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2000-01-28 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A book on practical business forecasting belongs in the library of everyone interested in business. Forecasting is extremely important to finance and accounting executives, business economists and managers at all levels. Strategic Business Forecasting: The Complete Guide to Forecasting Real World Company Performance provides you with a working knowledge of the fundamentals of business forecasting that can be applied in the real world regardless of the size of the firm. The author explains the basic forecasting methodology and the practical applications. All aspects of business are discussed, making this a comprehensive and valuable reference. The author avoids theoretical and mathematical discussions to gets right into how, when , and why to use this book. Many practical examples, applications, illustrations, guidelines, measures, checklists, rules of thumb, tips, graphs, diagrams and tables aid your comprehension of the subject. The author displays and explains printouts obtained using many popular spreadsheet programs and software packages. The book goes far beyond just sales forecasting, encompassing a wide range of topics of major importance to practical business managers and finance professionals, including cash flow forecasting, cost prediction, earnings forecasts, bankruptcy prediction, foreign exchange forecasting, and interest rate forecasting. Written in an easy-to-read style, it is practical, current, and intriguing - a reference book to use throughout your business career.
Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Download or read book Forecasting Methods for Managementy for the 21st Century written by Spyros Makridakis and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 1989 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Water Demand Forecasting written by V. Gardiner and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1986-06-30 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an outcome of the workshop on water demand forecasting in 1985. It summarises the 'state-of-the-art' in water demand forecasting, and identifies some of its links with environmental issues. The book discusses some of the issues raised in more detail and provides case studies.
Download or read book 2052 written by Jorgen Randers and published by Chelsea Green Publishing. This book was released on 2012-06-13 with total page 419 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With clarity, conscience, and courage, global-systems pioneer Jorgen Randers and his distinguished contributors map the forces that will shape the next four decades. Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of planet Earth. It predicted that during the first half of the 21st century the ongoing growth in the human ecological footprint would stop-either through catastrophic "overshoot and collapse"-or through well-managed "peak and decline." So, where are we now? And what does our future look like? In the book 2052, Jorgen Randers, one of the coauthors of Limits to Growth, issues a progress report and makes a forecast for the next forty years. To do this, he asked dozens of experts to weigh in with their best predictions on how our economies, energy supplies, natural resources, climate, food, fisheries, militaries, political divisions, cities, psyches, and more will take shape in the coming decades. He then synthesized those scenarios into a global forecast of life as we will most likely know it in the years ahead. The good news: we will see impressive advances in resource efficiency, and an increasing focus on human well-being rather than on per capita income growth. But this change might not come as we expect. Future growth in population and GDP, for instance, will be constrained in surprising ways-by rapid fertility decline as result of increased urbanization, productivity decline as a result of social unrest, and continuing poverty among the poorest 2 billion world citizens. Runaway global warming, too, is likely. So, how do we prepare for the years ahead? With heart, fact, and wisdom, Randers guides us along a realistic path into the future and discusses what readers can do to ensure a better life for themselves and their children during the increasing turmoil of the next forty years.
Download or read book The Next Decade written by George Friedman and published by Anchor. This book was released on 2011-01-25 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author of the acclaimed New York Times bestseller The Next 100 Years now focuses his geopolitical forecasting acumen on the next decade and the imminent events and challenges that will test America and the world, specifically addressing the skills that will be required by the decade’s leaders. In the long view, history is seen as a series of events—but the course of those events is determined by individuals and their actions. During the next ten years, individual leaders will face significant transitions for their nations: the United States’ relationships with Iran and Israel will be undergoing changes, China will likely confront a major crisis, and the wars in the Islamic world will subside. Unexpected energy and technology developments will emerge, and labor shortages will begin to matter more than financial crises. Distinguished geopolitical forecaster George Friedman analyzes these events from the perspectives of the men and women leading these global changes, focusing in particular on the American president, who will require extraordinary skills to shepherd the United States through this transitional period. The Next Decade is a provocative and fascinating look at the conflicts and opportunities that lie ahead.
