Download or read book Forecasting in Oil and Gas Markets written by Thomas R. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book World Market Price of Oil written by Adalat Muradov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-10 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book develops new econometric models to analyze and forecast the world market price of oil. The authors construct ARIMA and Trend models to forecast oil prices, taking into consideration outside factors such as political turmoil and solar activity on the price of oil. Incorporating historical and contemporary market trends, the authors are able to make medium and long-term forecasting results. In the first chapter, the authors perform a broad spectrum analysis of the theoretical and methodological challenges of oil price forecasting. In the second chapter, the authors build and test the econometric models needed for the forecasts. The final chapter of the text brings together the conclusions they reached through applying the models to their research. This book will be useful to students in economics, particularly those in upper-level courses on forecasting and econometrics as well as to politicians and policy makers in oil-producing countries, oil importing countries, and relevant international organizations.
Download or read book Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Futures Prices written by Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-10-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared with that of forecasts using alternative techniques, including time series and econometric models, as well as judgemental forecasts. The paper also explores the predictive power of futures prices by comparing the forecasting accuracy of end-of-month prices with weekly and monthly averages, using a variety of different weighting schemes. Finally, the paper investigates whether the forecasts from using futures prices can be improved by incorporating information from other forecasting techniques.
Download or read book A Guide to Energy Forecasting written by Graham Duxbury and published by Troubador Publishing Ltd. This book was released on 2017-09-26 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the purposes, methodologies, modelling techniques and weaknesses in energy forecasting. It provides a rare appraisal of what is generally known as the ‘end use sector’ approach to global demand forecasting. It exposes the fallibilities that are hidden in the seductive power point presentations of forecasters and the false sense of accuracy bestowed upon them. It nevertheless stresses that forecasting remains crucial and of value to the industry. By raising awareness of the forecasting risks and the often ‘smoke and mirrors’ nature of the exercise as well as offering commentary on how the process and use of forecasts could be improved, although not necessarily the accuracy, this book is must-read for those in government, corporate planning and financing sectors of the energy industry who rely on forecasts to make policy, investment and trading decisions.
Download or read book Outlook for Oil and Gas to 2010 written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 1992-06 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Americas Oil and Gas Insight written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Long Term Price Forecasts for European Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets written by Michael Wator and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This master's thesis investigates the volatility dynamics of the European crude oil benchmark Brent and the European natural gas trading hub National Balancing Point (NBP). The empirical analysis is based on daily prices and returns ranging from January 2000 to March 2014 for Brent and from September 2007 to March 2014 for NBP. This thesis provides background information on the European crude oil and natural gas markets including factors influencing oil and gas prices and the historical development of these two markets. The empirical analysis of the daily prices and returns reveals profound information on the statistical properties and on the factors influencing Brent and NBP prices during the sample period. We employ three univariate and two multivariate GARCH models. The simple GARCH and two of its asymmetric extensions, the TGARCH and EGARCH are employed in the univariate framework, whereas the Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) and the diagonal BEKK specification are used in the multivariate setting. We find strong evidence of volatility persistence of Brent and NBP returns. The volatility is found to react more to unexpected negative returns than to positive ones, signifying the leverage effect of negative shocks. Furthermore, there exists a limited positive correlation among the volatilities of Brent and NBP, where Brent shows a stronger influence on NBP.
Download or read book Understanding Data Analytics and Predictive Modelling in the Oil and Gas Industry written by Kingshuk Srivastava and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-11-20 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers aspects of data science and predictive analytics used in the oil and gas industry by looking into the challenges of data processing and data modelling unique to this industry. It includes upstream management, intelligent/digital wells, value chain integration, crude basket forecasting, and so forth. It further discusses theoretical, methodological, well-established, and validated empirical work dealing with various related topics. Special focus has been given to experimental topics with various case studies. Features: Provides an understanding of the basics of IT technologies applied in the oil and gas sector Includes deep comparison between different artificial intelligence techniques Analyzes different simulators in the oil and gas sector as well as discussion of AI applications Focuses on in-depth experimental and applied topics Details different case studies for upstream and downstream This book is aimed at professionals and graduate students in petroleum engineering, upstream industry, data analytics, and digital transformation process in oil and gas.
Download or read book Handbook Of Energy Finance Theories Practices And Simulations written by Stephane Goutte and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-01-30 with total page 827 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling the dynamics of energy markets has become a challenging task. The intensification of their financialization since 2004 had made them more complex but also more integrated with other tradable asset classes. More importantly, their large and frequent fluctuations in terms of both prices and volatility, particularly in the aftermath of the global financial crisis 2008-2009, posit difficulties for modeling and forecasting energy price behavior and are primary sources of concerns for macroeconomic stability and general economic performance.This handbook aims to advance the debate on the theories and practices of quantitative energy finance while shedding light on innovative results and technical methods applied to energy markets. Its primary focus is on the recent development and applications of mathematical and quantitative approaches for a better understanding of the stochastic processes that drive energy market movements. The handbook is designed for not only graduate students and researchers but also practitioners and policymakers.
Download or read book Oil Markets in the Post Covid 19 World written by Mohammed Hamdaoui and published by Trends Research & advisory. This book was released on 2020-01-01 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The scale of the socio-economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy has not been witnessed since the Great Depression. Isolation measures, implemented across the globe to contain the virus, confined hundreds of millions of people into their homes, bringing economic activities to a standstill. This crisis has impacted the oil and gas industry in an unprecedented manner. A massive decline in oil demand and a large oversupply, intensified by the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, has sent oil prices to levels unseen in decades. While the oil industry has faced several crises that have pushed it to find new ways to conduct business and adapt to changing conditions, the Covid-induced crisis has come when the industry is dealing with increased shareholder activism and intense pressure on the environmental front. Since this is a new phase for the industry, it could also become the catalyst that accelerates the transformation it has started to go through. Oil will continue to play an essential role in the energy mix for many decades. However, oil companies will have to navigate and manage an uncertain future as oil and gas projects will be riskier to develop and consequently require a higher rate of return. They will have to diversify their portfolios and continue shifting toward an integrated business model that embraces the changes caused by the energy transition and the growth in renewable and new technologies.
Download or read book Forecasting U S Electricity Demand written by Adela Maria Bolet and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-08-30 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although the energy headlines of 1985 proclaim the waning of OPEC, the collapse of oil prices, and the demise of the nuclear power industry, few policy analysts are examining the dynamic challenges and opportunities that may confront the electric power industry during the remainder of this century. In this pioneering work, Adela Maria Bolet attempts to do exactly this, namely, to reconcile the differences among forecasters as to the future of electricity demand in the industrial, commercial, and residential sectors.
Download or read book The Community Oil Sector Medium term Forecast and Guidelines written by Commission of the European Communities and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Machine Learning and Data Science in the Oil and Gas Industry written by Patrick Bangert and published by Gulf Professional Publishing. This book was released on 2021-03-04 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine Learning and Data Science in the Oil and Gas Industry explains how machine learning can be specifically tailored to oil and gas use cases. Petroleum engineers will learn when to use machine learning, how it is already used in oil and gas operations, and how to manage the data stream moving forward. Practical in its approach, the book explains all aspects of a data science or machine learning project, including the managerial parts of it that are so often the cause for failure. Several real-life case studies round out the book with topics such as predictive maintenance, soft sensing, and forecasting. Viewed as a guide book, this manual will lead a practitioner through the journey of a data science project in the oil and gas industry circumventing the pitfalls and articulating the business value. Chart an overview of the techniques and tools of machine learning including all the non-technological aspects necessary to be successful Gain practical understanding of machine learning used in oil and gas operations through contributed case studies Learn change management skills that will help gain confidence in pursuing the technology Understand the workflow of a full-scale project and where machine learning benefits (and where it does not)
Download or read book Short term Energy Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Intermediate Future Forecasting System written by Saul I. Gass and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Learning Deep Architectures for AI written by Yoshua Bengio and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2009 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Theoretical results suggest that in order to learn the kind of complicated functions that can represent high-level abstractions (e.g. in vision, language, and other AI-level tasks), one may need deep architectures. Deep architectures are composed of multiple levels of non-linear operations, such as in neural nets with many hidden layers or in complicated propositional formulae re-using many sub-formulae. Searching the parameter space of deep architectures is a difficult task, but learning algorithms such as those for Deep Belief Networks have recently been proposed to tackle this problem with notable success, beating the state-of-the-art in certain areas. This paper discusses the motivations and principles regarding learning algorithms for deep architectures, in particular those exploiting as building blocks unsupervised learning of single-layer models such as Restricted Boltzmann Machines, used to construct deeper models such as Deep Belief Networks.
Download or read book Optimization and Business Improvement Studies in Upstream Oil and Gas Industry written by Sanjib Chowdhury and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-08-15 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Delves into the core and functional areas in the upstream oil and gas industry covering a wide range of operations and processes Oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) activities are costly, risky and technology-intensive. With the rise in global demand for oil and fast depletion of easy reserves, the search for oil is directed to more difficult areas – deepwater, arctic region, hostile terrains; and future production is expected to come from increasingly difficult reserves – deeper horizon, low quality crude. All these are making E&P activities even more challenging in terms of operations, technology, cost and risk. Therefore, it is necessary to use scarce resources judiciously and optimize strategies, cost and capital, and improve business performance in all spheres of E&P business. Optimization and Business Improvement Studies in Upstream Oil and Gas Industry contains eleven real-life optimization and business improvement studies that delve into the core E&P activities and functional areas covering a wide range of operations and processes. It uses various quantitative and qualitative techniques, such as Linear Programing, Queuing theory, Critical Path Analysis, Economic analysis, Best Practices Benchmark, Business Process Simplification etc. to optimize Productivity of drilling operations Controllable rig time loss Deepwater exploration strategy Rig move time and activity schedule Offshore supply vessel fleet size Supply chain management system Strategic workforce and human resource productivity Base oil price for a country Standardize consumption of materials Develop uniform safety standards for offshore installations Improve organizational efficiency through business process simplification The book will be of immense interest to practicing managers, professionals and employees at all levels/ disciplines in oil and gas industry. It will also be useful to academicians, scholars, educational institutes, energy research institutes, and consultants dealing with oil and gas. The work can be used as a practical guide to upstream professionals and students in petroleum engineering programs.
