Download or read book The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth written by Barrett Williams and published by Barrett Williams. This book was released on 2024-08-24 with total page 163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unlock the Power of Predicting Tomorrow with "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth"! Are you ready to delve into the intricate world of economic forecasting? Discover the strategies, methods, and tools that shape the way experts predict future economic trends. "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth" is your comprehensive guide to mastering economic predictions and leveraging them for smarter decision-making. Start your journey with an essential introduction to economic forecasting, exploring its significance, history, and the key players that have set the stage. As you progress, get acquainted with the fundamentals of data analysis in economics – uncover the types of data, collection methods, and basic concepts in economic modeling. Dive deeper into statistical techniques with chapters dedicated to descriptive and inferential statistics, and regression analysis. Grasp the intricacies of time series analysis and learn how to utilize economic indicators for accurate predictions. Build your full understanding of constructing and validating predictive economic models. Venture into advanced econometric techniques and discover the cutting-edge role of machine learning in economic forecasting. Understand the impact of big data, and the nuanced field of behavioral economics, to enhance your forecasting accuracy even further. Explore the significance of economic policy analysis, scenario planning, and stress testing. Enhance your insight on forecasting financial markets and evaluate the accuracy of your predictions with clear, actionable metrics. Learn the best practices for communicating your forecasts, ensuring clarity and impact. Ethics play a critical role in economic forecasting. This eBook provides a mindful exploration of ethical considerations, dilemmas, and solutions, backed by real-world case studies. Utilize forecasts to shape business strategies and align them with market realities. As you reach the final chapters, look ahead to the future of economic forecasting, exploring emerging trends, the transformative influence of AI, and the dynamics of a globalized economy. "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth" is a must-have for anyone seeking to understand and apply economic forecasting techniques. Equip yourself with the knowledge to predict, plan, and prosper in an ever-changing economic landscape. Your journey into the future of economics starts here!
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 1046 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting Future Economic Growth written by Maria Khait and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The broad literature documents the empirical regularity that slope of the term structure of interest rates is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity. Steeper slopes presage increasing growth, and downward sloping term structures presage declining growth or even recession. Some instances of slope's misleading signals were recorded in 2006 (the term structure was flat, indicating decline in economic activity when high growth continued) and 2008 (the term structure was very steep, predicting economic growth when recession continued and took a deep dive). Moreover, Breeden (2012a) showed that the term structure of interest rates has had less predictive power over the past fifty years than has been found in earlier researches over shorter periods of time. The key idea underlying this paper was to test whether the term structure of volatility and the term structure of inflation combined with the term spread could improve predictions of future economic growth compared to interest rate based forecasts with only one variable. This study finds that while the term structure spread and volatility appear to be statistically significant variables there is little evidence of improved performance compare to interest rate based forecasts with only one variable.
Download or read book The Future of the World Economy written by Wilhelm Krelle and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 680 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth and structural change - the future of the world economy - is analysed in this book. Conditional forecasts are given for the economic development of the most important world market countries till the year 2000. The driving forces of economic growth are identified and forecasted, in connection with collaborating scholars in most of these countries and with international organizations. This information is used in solving a coherent world model. The model consists of linked growth models for each country (or groups of countries). The solutions show that the inequality in international income distribution will further increase and that the CMEA and OECD countries will approximately keep their relative positions, with some changes within these groups. Structural change is also analysed. Additionally separate forecasts prepared by each collaborating country group are given and may be compared with the forecasts by the world model. The book closes with chapters on special features of the future economic development: on the international debt problem, on long waves, on structural change in the world trade, on the emergence of service economics and on the comparison of GDP and NMP national accounting.
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Elia Kacapyr and published by M.E. Sharpe. This book was released on 1996 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Future Prospects -- Summary -- Notes -- References -- Bibliography -- Index -- About the Author
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2020 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-10-13 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.
Download or read book Economic and Business Forecasting written by John E. Silvia and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-03-10 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest. Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems Presenting the "ten commandments" for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.
Download or read book Real time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies written by Mr.Philip Liu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based the assessment of current and future economic conditions. These assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates "nowcasts" and forecasts of real GDP growth using five alternative models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate that the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider.
Download or read book The Future of Economic Growth written by Robert Boyer and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2004-01-01 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The work is thought provoking in its analytical part and is also stimulating in its normative-political end, which advocates an institutional architecture wherein growth in a knowledge-based economy could be driven by collective services such as health and education. . . a challenging interpretation of the contemporary political economy. Giovanni Dosi, Journal of Economic Literature How significant was the internet boom and bust? Robert Boyer brings significant and fresh insight to efforts to situate the meaning of the digital transformation through which we are living. With analytic discipline and historical perspective, Boyer provides an important interpretation that will be valuable to scholar and teacher, those just curious about the internet development and those who lived through it. John Zysman, University of California, Berkeley, US In this book, Robert Boyer follows the origins, course and collapse of the new economy and proposes a new interpretation of US dynamism during the 1990s. He argues that the diffusion of information and communication technologies is only part of a story that also requires understanding of the transformation of the financial system, the reorganization of the management of firms and the emergence of a new policy mix. The book includes a long-term retrospective analysis of technological innovation, and an international comparison of OECD countries delivers an unconventional and critical assessment of the hope and the hype of the new economy . The book proposes that the US way is not necessarily the only efficient one, as demonstrated by the experience of the Nordic countries, which manage to combine economic efficiency with social justice. The author argues that European economies would do well to take note and to explore a promising growth regime for the twenty-first century, one built upon health, education, training and leisure, this comprising the anthropogenetic model . The Future of Economic Growth is a challenging and thought-provoking book, and as such will be of interest to many academics, researchers and students within the field of economics. It will be particularly relevant to those with an interest in macroeconomics, industrial organisation and the theory of the firm, and growth theory.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Understanding Economic Forecasts written by David F. Hendry and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Download or read book Inside the Crystal Ball written by Maury Harris and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book: Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance. Demonstrates "best practices" in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections. These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions. Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies. Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment—a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks—in readable and illuminating detail. Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits. Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises. Evaluates major contemporary forecasting issues—including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) policies. Brings to life Harris's own experiences and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future.
Download or read book Forecasting the Price Level Income Distribution and Economic Growth written by Sidney Weintraub and published by . This book was released on 1959 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-15 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.
Download or read book Economic Fluctuations and Forecasting written by Edward James Chambers and published by . This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 664 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting written by David Hendry and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2019-06-11 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
Download or read book Forecasting Future Growth written by Florian Becker and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
