Download or read book Forecasting for the Mid latitudes written by United States. Naval Education and Training Command and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Problems and Prospects in Long and Medium Range Weather Forecasting written by D.M. Burridge and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting the weather for the long and medium range is a difficult and scientifically challenging problem. Since the first operational weather prediction by numerical methods was carried out (on the BESK computer in Stockholm, Sweden, 1954) . there has been an ever accelerating development in computer technology. Hand in hand has followed a tremendous increase in the complexity of the atmospheric models used for weather prediction. The ability of these models to predict future states of the atmosphere has also increased rapidly, both due to model development and due to more accurate and plentiful observations of the atmosphere to define the initial . state for model integrations. It may however be argued on theoretical grounds that even if we have an almost perfect model with almost perfect initial data, we will never be able to make an accurate weather prediction more than a few weeks ahead. This is due to the inherent instability of the atmosphere and work in this field was pioneered by E. Lorenz. It is generally referred to as atmospheric predict ability and in the opening chapter of this book Professor Lorenz gives us an overview of the problem of atmospheric predictability. The contributions to this book were originally presented at the 1981 ECMWF Seminar (ECMWF - European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) which was held at ECMWF in Reading, England, in September 1981.
Download or read book Mesoscale Meteorology in Midlatitudes written by Paul Markowski and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-20 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mesoscale Meteorology in Mid-Latitudes presents the dynamics of mesoscale meteorological phenomena in a highly accessible, student-friendly manner. The book's clear mathematical treatments are complemented by high-quality photographs and illustrations. Comprehensive coverage of subjects including boundary layer mesoscale phenomena, orographic phenomena and deep convection is brought together with the latest developments in the field to provide an invaluable resource for mesoscale meteorology students. Mesoscale Meteorology in Mid-Latitudes functions as a comprehensive, easy-to-use undergraduate textbook while also providing a useful reference for graduate students, research scientists and weather industry professionals. Illustrated in full colour throughout Covers the latest developments and research in the field Comprehensive coverage of deep convection and its initiation Uses real life examples of phenomena taken from broad geographical areas to demonstrate the practical aspects of the science
Download or read book Midlatitude Synoptic Meteorology written by Gary Lackmann and published by American Meteorological Society. This book was released on 2013-01-22 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past decade has been characterized by remarkable advances in meteorological observation, computing techniques, and data-visualization technology. Mesoscale Synoptic Meteorology links theoretical concepts to modern technology and facilitates the meaningful application of concepts, theories, and techniques using real data. As such, it both serves those planning careers in meteorological research and weather prediction and provides a template for the application of modern technology in classroom and laboratory settings.
Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 585 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Download or read book Weather Analysis and Forecasting written by Christo Georgiev and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2005-07-05 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Weather Analysis and Forecasting is a practical guide to using potential vorticity fields and water vapor imagery from satellites to elucidate complex weather patterns and train meteorologists to improve operational forecasting. In particular, it details the use of the close relationship between satellite imagery and the potential vorticity fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. It shows how to interpret water vapor patterns in terms of dynamical processes in the atmosphere and their relation to diagnostics available from weather prediction models. The book explores topics including: a dynamical view of synoptic development; the interpretation problem of satellite water vapor imagery; practical use of water vapor imagery and dynamical fields; significant water vapor imagery features associated with synoptic dynamical structures; and use of water vapor imagery for assessing NWP model behavior and improving forecasts. Applications are illustrated with color images based on real meteorological situations. The book's step-by-step pedagogy makes this an essential training manual for forecasters in meteorological services worldwide, and a valuable text for graduate students in atmospheric physics and satellite meteorology. * Shows how to analyze current satellite images for assessing weather models' behavior and improving forecasts * Provides step-by-step pedagogy for understanding and interpreting meteorological processes * Includes full-color throughout to highlight "real-world" models, patterns, and examples
Download or read book Forecasting in Middle Latitudes written by Herbert Riehl and published by . This book was released on 1952 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objects of the American Meteorological Society are "the development and dissemination of knowledge of meteorology in all its phases and applications, and the advancement of its professional ideals." The organization of the Society took place in affiliation with the American Association for the Advancement of Science at Saint Louis, Missouri, December 29, 1919, and its incorporation, at Washington, D. C., January 21, 1920. The work of the Society is carried on by the Bulletin, the Journal, and Meteorological Monographs, by papers and discussions at meetings of the Society, through the offices of the Secretary and the Executive Secretary, and by correspondence. All of the Americas are represented in the membership of the Society as well as many foreign countries.
Download or read book Forecasting in Middle Latitudes written by American Meteorological Society and published by . This book was released on 1952 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Mid latitude Atmospheric Prediction on Time Scales of 10 30 Days written by A. Hollingsworth and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Mid Latitude Weather Systems written by Toby N. Carlson and published by Penn State University Press. This book was released on 2012-09-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mid-Latitude Weather Systems has become a classic text in synoptic meteorology. It is the first text to make extensive use of conventional weather charts and equations to illustrate fully the behavior and evolution of weather patterns. Carlson presents selected concepts, facilitating the interpretation of this active and challenging area of study.
Download or read book Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting written by Peter Ray and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-03-30 with total page 803 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of selected lectures presented at the ‘Intensive Course on Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting’ in Boulder, USA, in 1984. It includes mesoscale classifications, observing techniques and systems, internally generated circulations, mesoscale convective systems, externally forced circulations, modeling and short-range forecasting techniques. This is a highly illustrated book and comprehensive work, including extensive bibliographic references. It is aimed at graduates in meteorology and for professionals working in the field.
Download or read book Empirical Methods in Short Term Climate Prediction written by Huug M. Van den Dool and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author describes the methods underlying short-term climate prediction at time scales of two weeks to a year. With an emphasis on the empirical approach, this text covers empirical wave propagation, teleconnections, empirical orthogonal functions, and constructed analogue.
Download or read book A Methodology for Modulating the Intensification Rates of Forecast Mid latitude Cyclones with Implications for Predictability written by Alexander Max Goldstein and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For a particular aspect of interest (defined by a "response function") within a numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast trajectory, one may use the adjoint of the NWP model to calculate the sensitivity of the response function to small changes to the model state at a previous time. These adjoint-derived sensitivities, expressed as gradients of the response function with respect to the forecast trajectory, yield powerful insight into the dynamics that govern the meteorological phenomena of interest described by that response function. It is possible to use this sensitivity gradient information to compute and apply perturbations to the initial model state, optimized for a prescribed impact on the response function, in order to gain an explicit understanding of the dynamics and evolution of the response of the forecast to initial perturbation. Within the traditional adjoint framework however, the examination of highly non-linear processes such as mid-latitude cyclone intensification rate is challenged by: 1) the adjoint model's reliance upon the assumption of linearity; and 2) response functions typically being defined at a single point within the forecast trajectory rather than for the time-rate-of-change of a forecast aspect over a period of time. In order to remedy these two issues, two new methods for adjoint analysis are proposed and explored. First, the calculation of quasi-optimal iterative perturbations (QOIP), an iterative, incremental perturbation method inspired by incremental four dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) that seeks to minimize the constraint of linearity is introduced and discussed. Second, a response function for cyclone intensification rate is derived by taking the difference between the sensitivity of cyclone intensity at two times within the forecast trajectory. In using these two methods, the impact of small changes to the initial model state on the intensification rate of three mid-latitude cyclones is investigated, with implications for predictability of these kinds of events. Additionally, piecewise potential vorticity inversion is used to diagnose the evolution of these perturbations. The adjoint-derived, perturbation quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (QGPV) is calculated and inverted in a piecewise manner relative to the instantaneous basic state supplied by the control forecast, allowing for a direct attribution of discrete QGPV perturbations to the balanced, perturbation mass and momentum fields. Within the above framework, three case studies were performed on mid-latitude cyclones that varied based upon qualitative measures of predictability. For the cases characterized by lower (higher) levels of predictability, QOIP prescribed at the analysis time were more successful (unsuccessful) in modulating the cyclone intensification rate over a chosen response period. It is argued that those perturbations that successfully augment the larger-scale synoptic environment in a manner that promotes enhanced baroclinic growth of the cyclone results in the largest change to the response function, while perturbations that largely impact the thermodynamic fields result in a small to moderate change. This result is further shown within the context of vertical profiles of perturbation energy, in which the cases characterized by larger changes to the response function largely see an augmentation to the perturbation kinetic energy in the upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere, versus those characterized by smaller changes experiencing larger augmentation to the perturbation available potential energy in the lower-levels.
Download or read book Verification of Precipitation Forecasts Associated with Mid latitude Cyclones Across the Eastern United States written by Jessica Williams and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The accuracy of weather forecasts is crucial in preparing the community for potentially dangerous weather. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to display information spatially in order to assist in decision making processes. Forecast Meteorologists use much data and information in making decisions to provide the most accurate forecast possible. One important piece of information used in the forecast process is how well Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are performing, or verifying. Currently, NWP model verification information is not displayed spatially, with only descriptive statistical scores being computed operationally. Displaying this verification information spatially will provide more useful information to help in the forecast process decisions, thereby increasing the likelihood of more accurate forecasts. This research used GIS to verify a sample of 32 Global Forecast System (GFS) NWP model 24 hour precipitation forecasts associated with mid-latitude cyclones over the Eastern US. The research methodology produced spatial verification maps which show model errors spatially related to the mid-latitude cyclones alongside quantitative verification scores for each day and overall. A hypothesis test was performed to determine if the GFS total precipitation over the study area is statistically different from the observation during mid-latitude cyclones. The hypothesis test results infer with 95% confidence that the GFS total precipitation means are statistically different from the observation total precipitation means. Based on the study of 32 sample days for the 2013 winter and spring season, the spatial verification maps as well as the quantitative scores reveal that the GFS model has a tendency to over forecast precipitation coverage associated with mid-latitude cyclones over the Eastern US. Finally, GIS models were built to investigate the possibility of having a near real-time automated process to provide spatial verification maps which could potentially be used in forecast operations.
Download or read book Medium Range Weather Forecasts written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Scientific Assessment of the Prospects for Seasonal Forecasting written by T. N. Palmer and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
