Download or read book Forecasting Financial Markets Using Neural Networks written by Jason E. Kutsurelis and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research examines andanalyzes the use of neural networks as a forecasting tool. Specifically a neural network's ability to predict future trends of Stock Market Indices is tested. Accuracy is compared against a traditional forecasting method, multiple linear regression analysis. Finally, the probability of the model's forecast being correct is calculated using conditional probabilities. While only briefly discussing neural network theory, this research determines the feasibility and practicality of usingneural networks as a forecasting tool for the individual investor. This study builds upon the work done byEdward Gately in his book Neural Networks for Financial Forecasting. This research validates the work of Gately and describes the development of a neural network that achieved a 93.3 percent probability of predicting a market rise, and an 88.07 percent probability of predicting a market drop in the S&P500. It was concluded that neural networks do have the capability to forecast financial markets and, if properly trained, the individual investor could benefit from the use of this forecasting tool.
Download or read book Forecasting Financial Markets Using Neural Networks written by Jason Kutsurelis and published by . This book was released on 1998-09-01 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research examines and analyzes the use of neural networks as a forecasting tool. Specifically a neural network's ability to predict future trends of Stock Market Indices is tested. Accuracy is compared against a traditional forecasting method, multiple linear regression analysis. Finally, the probability of the model's forecast being correct is calculated using conditional probabilities. While only briefly discussing neural network theory, this research determines the feasibility and practicality of using neural networks as a forecasting tool for the individual investor. This study builds upon the work done by Edward Gately in his book Neural Networks for Financial Forecasting. This research validates the work of Gately and describes the development of a neural network that achieved a 93.3 percent probability of predicting a market rise, and an 88.07 percent probability of predicting a market drop in the S&P500. It was concluded that neural networks do have the capability to forecast financial markets and, if properly trained, the individual investor could benefit from the use of this forecasting tool.
Download or read book Neural Network Time Series written by E. Michael Azoff and published by . This book was released on 1994-09-27 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensively specified benchmarks are provided (including weight values), drawn from time series examples in chaos theory and financial futures. The book covers data preprocessing, random walk theory, trading systems and risk analysis. It also provides a literature review, a tutorial on backpropagation, and a chapter on further reading and software.
Download or read book Forecasting Indian Financial Markets Using Neural Network written by Chakradhara Panda and published by Serials Publications. This book was released on 2008 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Neural Networks and the Financial Markets written by Jimmy Shadbolt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume looks at financial prediction from a broad range of perspectives. It covers: - the economic arguments - the practicalities of the markets - how predictions are used - how predictions are made - how predictions are turned into something usable (asset locations) It combines a discussion of standard theory with state-of-the-art material on a wide range of information processing techniques as applied to cutting-edge financial problems. All the techniques are demonstrated with real examples using actual market data, and show that it is possible to extract information from very noisy, sparse data sets. Aimed primarily at researchers in financial prediction, time series analysis and information processing, this book will also be of interest to quantitative fund managers and other professionals involved in financial prediction.
Download or read book Neural Networks in Finance written by Paul D. McNelis and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2005-01-05 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the intuitive appeal of neural networks and the genetic algorithm in finance. It demonstrates how neural networks used in combination with evolutionary computation outperform classical econometric methods for accuracy in forecasting, classification and dimensionality reduction. McNelis utilizes a variety of examples, from forecasting automobile production and corporate bond spread, to inflation and deflation processes in Hong Kong and Japan, to credit card default in Germany to bank failures in Texas, to cap-floor volatilities in New York and Hong Kong. * Offers a balanced, critical review of the neural network methods and genetic algorithms used in finance * Includes numerous examples and applications * Numerical illustrations use MATLAB code and the book is accompanied by a website
Download or read book Stock Market Prediction and Efficiency Analysis using Recurrent Neural Network written by Joish Bosco and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2018-09-18 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project Report from the year 2018 in the subject Computer Science - Technical Computer Science, , course: Computer Science, language: English, abstract: Modeling and Forecasting of the financial market have been an attractive topic to scholars and researchers from various academic fields. The financial market is an abstract concept where financial commodities such as stocks, bonds, and precious metals transactions happen between buyers and sellers. In the present scenario of the financial market world, especially in the stock market, forecasting the trend or the price of stocks using machine learning techniques and artificial neural networks are the most attractive issue to be investigated. As Giles explained, financial forecasting is an instance of signal processing problem which is difficult because of high noise, small sample size, non-stationary, and non-linearity. The noisy characteristics mean the incomplete information gap between past stock trading price and volume with a future price. The stock market is sensitive with the political and macroeconomic environment. However, these two kinds of information are too complex and unstable to gather. The above information that cannot be included in features are considered as noise. The sample size of financial data is determined by real-world transaction records. On one hand, a larger sample size refers a longer period of transaction records; on the other hand, large sample size increases the uncertainty of financial environment during the 2 sample period. In this project, we use stock data instead of daily data in order to reduce the probability of uncertain noise, and relatively increase the sample size within a certain period of time. By non-stationarity, one means that the distribution of stock data is various during time changing. Non-linearity implies that feature correlation of different individual stocks is various. Efficient Market Hypothesis was developed by Burton G. Malkiel in 1991.
Download or read book 2017 IEEE 19th Conference on Business Informatics CBI written by IEEE Staff and published by . This book was released on 2017-07-24 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Business Informatics is the scientific discipline targeting information processes and related phenomena in their socio economical business context, including companies, organisations, administrations and society in general As a field of study, it endeavours to take a systematic and analytic approach in adopting a multi disciplinary orientation that draws theories and practices from the fields of management science, organisational science, computer science, systems engineering, information systems, information management, social science, and economics information science The IEEE CBI 2017 is aimed at creating a forum for researchers and practitioners from the fields that contribute to the construction, use and maintenance of information systems and the organisational context in which they are embedded
Download or read book Forecast of Financial Markets Stock Prices Using Neural Networks and ANFIS written by Luis Alberto Valencia Vega and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial market is a very complex nonlinear series of time. There have been a lot of opinions in the topic of the predictability of it. The need to predict a next day, week, or month has always existed for the final purpose of making money. The most common way of forecasting this time series is with statistic methods and linear regression models. However, the use of artificial intelligence algorithms may have a better outcome, due to the capability of them to handle nonlinear data. The present thesis will be focused on evaluating the use of artificial intelligence algorithms as forecasters for financial markets stock prices. Two algorithms will be used, Feed-Forward Neural networks and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS). All forecasts are made with the purpose of a short term trading strategy. Three stocks will be used as an example of the consistency of the method; Google, Apple and the Mexican stock ALFA. These three stocks have different distributed data and different behavior from the neural networks and ANFIS ¡s expected.
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks written by Lean Yu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-02-26 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on forecasting foreign exchange rates via artificial neural networks (ANNs), creating and applying the highly useful computational techniques of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to foreign-exchange rate forecasting. The result is an up-to-date review of the most recent research developments in forecasting foreign exchange rates coupled with a highly useful methodological approach to predicting rate changes in foreign currency exchanges.
Download or read book Neural Networks in Finance written by Paul D. McNelis and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2005-01-20 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the intuitive appeal of neural networks and the genetic algorithm in finance. It demonstrates how neural networks used in combination with evolutionary computation outperform classical econometric methods for accuracy in forecasting, classification and dimensionality reduction. McNelis utilizes a variety of examples, from forecasting automobile production and corporate bond spread, to inflation and deflation processes in Hong Kong and Japan, to credit card default in Germany to bank failures in Texas, to cap-floor volatilities in New York and Hong Kong. * Offers a balanced, critical review of the neural network methods and genetic algorithms used in finance * Includes numerous examples and applications * Numerical illustrations use MATLAB code and the book is accompanied by a website
Download or read book Application of Neural Networks to an Emerging Financial Market written by Mark T. Leung and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although there exists some studies which deal with the issues of forecasting stock market index and development of trading strategies, most of the empirical findings are associated with the developed financial markets (e.g., U.S., U.K., and Japan). Currently, many international investment bankers and brokerage firms have major stakes in overseas markets. Given the economic success of Taiwan in the last two decades, the financial markets in this Asian country have attracted considerable global investments. Our study models and predicts the TSE Index using neural networks. Their performance is compared with that of parametric forecasting approaches, namely the Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) and random walk. These rapidly growing financial markets are usually characterized by high volatility, relatively smaller capitalization, and less price efficiency, features which may hinder the effectiveness of those forecasting models developed for established markets. The good performance of the PNN suggests that the neural network models are useful in predicting the direction of index returns. Furthermore, PNN has demonstrated a stronger predictive power than both the GMM-Kalman filter and the random walk forecasting models. This superiority is partially attributed to PNN's ability to identify outliers and erroneous data. Compared to the other two parametric techniques examined in this study, PNN does not require any assumption of the underlying probability density functions of the class populations. The trading experiment shows that the PNN-guided trading strategies obtain higher profits than the other investment strategies utilizing the market direction generated by the parametric forecasting methods. In addition, the PNN-guided trading with multiple triggering thresholds is generally better than the one with single triggering thresholds. The multiple threshold version is able to consider the degree of certainty of a particular PNN classification and thereby reduce potential loss in the market.
Download or read book Neural Networks in Business Forecasting written by G. Peter Zhang and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2004-01-01 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is one of the most important activities that form the basis for strategic, tactical, and operational decisions in all business organizations. Recently, neural networks have emerged as an important tool for business forecasting. There are considerable interests and applications in forecasting using neural networks. Neural Networks in Business Forecasting provides for researchers and practitioners some recent advances in applying neural networks to business forecasting. A number of case studies demonstrating the innovative or successful applications of neural networks to many areas of business as well as methods to improve neural network forecasting performance are presented.
Download or read book Artificial Neural Networks written by Ali Roghani and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2016-08-09 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Neural networks are state-of-the-art, trainable algorithms that emulate certain major aspects in the functioning of the human brain. This gives them a unique, self-training ability, the ability to formalize unclassified information and, most importantly, the ability to make forecasts based on the historical information they have at their disposal. Neural networks have been used increasingly in a variety of business applications, including forecasting and marketing research solutions. In some areas, such as fraud detection or risk assessment, they are the indisputable leaders. The major fields in which neural networks have found application are financial operations, enterprise planning, trading, business analytics and product maintenance. Neural networks can be applied gainfully by all kinds of traders, so if you're a trader and you haven't yet been introduced to neural networks, we'll take you through this method of technical analysis and show you how to apply it to your trading style. Neural networks have been touted as all-powerful tools in stock-market prediction. Companies such as MJ Futures claim amazing 199.2% returns over a 2-year period using their neural network prediction methods. They also claim great ease of use; as technical editor John Sweeney said in a 1995 issue of "Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities," "you can skip developing complex rules (and redeveloping them as their effectiveness fades) . . . just define the price series and indicators you want to use, and the neural network does the rest."
Download or read book Ordinary Shares Exotic Methods written by Francis E. H. Tay and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2003 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exotic methods refer to specific functions within general soft computing methods such as genetic algorithms, neural networks and rough sets theory. They are applied to ordinary shares for a variety of financial purposes, such as portfolio selection and optimization, classification of market states, forecasting of market states and data mining. This is in contrast to the wide spectrum of work done on exotic financial instruments, wherein advanced mathematics is used to construct financial instruments for hedging risks and for investment.In this book, particular aspects of the general method are used to create interesting applications. For instance, genetic niching produces a family of portfolios for the trader to choose from. Support vector machines, a special form of neural networks, forecast the financial markets; such a forecast is on market states, of which there are three OCo uptrending, mean reverting and downtrending. A self-organizing map displays in a vivid manner the states of the market. Rough sets with a new discretization method extract information from stock prices."
Download or read book Neural Networks in Finance and Investing written by Robert R. Trippi and published by Irwin Professional Publishing. This book was released on 1996 with total page 872 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This completely updated version of the classic first edition offers a wealth of new material reflecting the latest developments in teh field. For investment professionals seeking to maximize this exciting new technology, this handbook is the definitive information source.
Download or read book Financial Prediction Using Neural Networks written by Joseph S. Zirilli and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focusing on approaches to performing trend analysis through the use of neural nets, this book comparess the results of experiments on various types of markets, and includes a review of current work in the area. It appeals to students in both neural computing and finance as well as to financial analysts and academic and professional researchers in the field of neural network applications.
