Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Download or read book Forecasting Extreme Financial Risk written by Lisa R. Goldberg and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme value statistics provides a practical, flexible, mathematically elegant framework in which to develop financial risk management tools that are consistent with empirical data. In this introductory survey, we discuss some of the basic tools including power law distributions, the peaks over thresholds estimation procedure and point processes.
Download or read book Forecasting Extreme Financial Risk written by Jón Daníelsson and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Extreme Financial Risks written by Yannick Malevergne and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-01-16 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Clearly elucidates extreme financial risks associated with rare events such as financial crashes. The highlight of the book is the delineation of various copulas in conjunction with financial dependences among different assets of a portfolio. In particular, the insightful discussion on quadrant and orthant dependences casts new light on the connection between marginal models and financial dependence...brings a vivid portrayal of the subject." -- MATHEMATICAL REVIEWS
Download or read book Managing Extreme Financial Risk written by Karamjeet Paul and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-09-16 with total page 173 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing Extreme Financial Risk addresses the need for better management strategies in light of increased market risk and volatility in financial institutions' revenue models. Top officials from the financial and regulatory industries point to real corporate issues, showing how institutions react to financial crises. From first-hand experiences, they explain how effective sustainability management does not just prevent being blindsided; it also leads to proactive solutions that enhance an institution's strength to weather a sudden financial crisis, add significant shareholder value, and reduce systemic risk. Readable, coherent, and logical, Managing Extreme Financial Risk shows how extreme risk needs to be handled when the cost of being wrong means the difference between life and death of the institution. - Based on the firsthand experiences and perspectives of senior-level executives - Concentrates on extreme risk, when the cost of being wrong is not the loss of profits, but the death of the institution - Written to be easily understood without algorithms, models, and quants
Download or read book Extreme Values and Financial Risk written by Saralees Nadarajah and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2019-01-15 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Extreme Values and Financial Risk" that was published in JRFM
Download or read book Data Analysis and Applications 4 written by Andreas Makrides and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-04-09 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data analysis as an area of importance has grown exponentially, especially during the past couple of decades. This can be attributed to a rapidly growing computer industry and the wide applicability of computational techniques, in conjunction with new advances of analytic tools. This being the case, the need for literature that addresses this is self-evident. New publications are appearing, covering the need for information from all fields of science and engineering, thanks to the universal relevance of data analysis and statistics packages. This book is a collective work by a number of leading scientists, analysts, engineers, mathematicians and statisticians who have been working at the forefront of data analysis. The chapters included in this volume represent a cross-section of current concerns and research interests in these scientific areas. The material is divided into three parts: Financial Data Analysis and Methods, Statistics and Stochastic Data Analysis and Methods, and Demographic Methods and Data Analysis- providing the reader with both theoretical and applied information on data analysis methods, models and techniques and appropriate applications.
Download or read book Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets written by Stephen Satchell and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-02-24 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets, Third Edition assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting-edge modelling and forecasting techniques. It provides a survey of ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return. Editors John Knight and Stephen Satchell have brought together an impressive array of contributors who present research from their area of specialization related to volatility forecasting. Readers with an understanding of volatility measures and risk management strategies will benefit from this collection of up-to-date chapters on the latest techniques in forecasting volatility. Chapters new to this third edition:* What good is a volatility model? Engle and Patton* Applications for portfolio variety Dan diBartolomeo* A comparison of the properties of realized variance for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 equity indices Rob Cornish* Volatility modeling and forecasting in finance Xiao and Aydemir* An investigation of the relative performance of GARCH models versus simple rules in forecasting volatility Thomas A. Silvey - Leading thinkers present newest research on volatility forecasting - International authors cover a broad array of subjects related to volatility forecasting - Assumes basic knowledge of volatility, financial mathematics, and modelling
Download or read book The Known the Unknown and the Unknowable in Financial Risk Management written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-19 with total page 391 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A clear understanding of what we know, don't know, and can't know should guide any reasonable approach to managing financial risk, yet the most widely used measure in finance today--Value at Risk, or VaR--reduces these risks to a single number, creating a false sense of security among risk managers, executives, and regulators. This book introduces a more realistic and holistic framework called KuU --the K nown, the u nknown, and the U nknowable--that enables one to conceptualize the different kinds of financial risks and design effective strategies for managing them. Bringing together contributions by leaders in finance and economics, this book pushes toward robustifying policies, portfolios, contracts, and organizations to a wide variety of KuU risks. Along the way, the strengths and limitations of "quantitative" risk management are revealed. In addition to the editors, the contributors are Ashok Bardhan, Dan Borge, Charles N. Bralver, Riccardo Colacito, Robert H. Edelstein, Robert F. Engle, Charles A. E. Goodhart, Clive W. J. Granger, Paul R. Kleindorfer, Donald L. Kohn, Howard Kunreuther, Andrew Kuritzkes, Robert H. Litzenberger, Benoit B. Mandelbrot, David M. Modest, Alex Muermann, Mark V. Pauly, Til Schuermann, Kenneth E. Scott, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Richard J. Zeckhauser. Introduces a new risk-management paradigm Features contributions by leaders in finance and economics Demonstrates how "killer risks" are often more economic than statistical, and crucially linked to incentives Shows how to invest and design policies amid financial uncertainty
Download or read book Extreme Values and Financial Risk written by Stephen Chan and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 1 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the 2008 financial crisis, modeling of the extreme values of financial risk has become important. Postgraduate programs and PhD research programs in mathematical finance are cropping up in nearly every university. Additionally, many conferences are being held annually on the topic of extreme financial risk. The aim of this Special Issue is to provide a collection of papers from leading experts in the area of extreme financial risk.
Download or read book A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility written by Ser-Huang Poon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-08-19 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.
Download or read book How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk written by Peter F. Christoffersen and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Systemic Real and Financial Risks written by Mr.Gianni De Nicolo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-02-01 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper formulates a novel modeling framework that delivers: (a) forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk based on density forecasts of indicators of real activity and financial health; (b) stress-tests as measures of the dynamics of responses of systemic risk indicators to structural shocks identified by standard macroeconomic and banking theory. Using a large number of quarterly time series of the G-7 economies in 1980Q1-2010Q2, we show that the model exhibits significant out-of sample forecasting power for tail real and financial risk realizations, and that stress testing provides useful early warnings on the build-up of real and financial vulnerabilities.
Download or read book The analysis of extreme events with applications to financial risk management written by Matthias Degen and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Worst Case Economics written by Frank Ackerman and published by Anthem Press. This book was released on 2017-10-23 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Worst-case scenarios are all too real, and all too common. The financial crisis of 2008 was not the first or the last to destroy jobs, homeownership and the savings of millions of people. Hurricanes clobber communities from New York to Bangladesh. How bad will the next catastrophe be, and how soon will it happen? Climate and financial crises are serious events, requiring vigorous responses. Yet public policy is trapped in an obsolete framework, with a simplistic focus on average or likely outcomes rather than dangerous extremes. What would it take to create better analyses of extreme events in climate and finance, and an appropriate policy framework for worst-case risks? ‘Worst-Case Economics: Extreme Events in Climate and Finance’ offers accessible and surprising answers to these crucial questions.
Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School
Download or read book Portfolio Risk Analysis written by Gregory Connor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Portfolio risk forecasting has been and continues to be an active research field for both academics and practitioners. Almost all institutional investment management firms use quantitative models for their portfolio forecasting, and researchers have explored models' econometric foundations, relative performance, and implications for capital market behavior and asset pricing equilibrium. Portfolio Risk Analysis provides an insightful and thorough overview of financial risk modeling, with an emphasis on practical applications, empirical reality, and historical perspective. Beginning with mean-variance analysis and the capital asset pricing model, the authors give a comprehensive and detailed account of factor models, which are the key to successful risk analysis in every economic climate. Topics range from the relative merits of fundamental, statistical, and macroeconomic models, to GARCH and other time series models, to the properties of the VIX volatility index. The book covers both mainstream and alternative asset classes, and includes in-depth treatments of model integration and evaluation. Credit and liquidity risk and the uncertainty of extreme events are examined in an intuitive and rigorous way. An extensive literature review accompanies each topic. The authors complement basic modeling techniques with references to applications, empirical studies, and advanced mathematical texts. This book is essential for financial practitioners, researchers, scholars, and students who want to understand the nature of financial markets or work toward improving them.
